Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis
- Thread starter MARKETWAVES
- Start date
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
I am not a chart egg-spurt, but fundamentally the AUD is one of the currencies that should perform well, being that Australia is rich in natural resources....of course, in the short-term many other factors play into the relative strength, such as central bank fiscal policy....
I'm new here, and trying to qualify with enough posts to enter to stock contest....I call California home....keep up the good charting, I WILL pay attention....
I'm new here, and trying to qualify with enough posts to enter to stock contest....I call California home....keep up the good charting, I WILL pay attention....
back again... I still see that nothin is sure but what happened is that the audusd formed the head and shoulders pattern in the daily chart and now most of traders expect that audusd is going to 7570 and they made this expectation because of the head and shoulders. right now the pair is facing a good support at 7713 level, the breaking of this support might take it to 7645 - 7636 where its going to face the up trend line in the daily chart, and breaking it would take the pair to 7610 and 7570 , i`m a lil confused because everything is really not clear because we will have the up trendline in the weekly chart .
Attachments
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
welcome back kauri 
i do agree with you that audusd might start a new impulse.
well in the last days i have posted my analysis and mentioned that everything is just not clear, fundementally i belive that usd is going to have some weakness , but technically audusd fell and there was the form of head & shoulders and after break it it should go to 7570 but we have the weekly up trendline , really everythin was just mixed. now what i see that we need a weekly close above 7766 so we can say that audusd is going next week to 7855. the data of GDP Annualized q/q for usa came out and it was better than expected and then there was a talk in the market that that they may mention that rate might be rised , and thats why the dollar showed some strength but the dollar fell after they decided that the rate will be the same and didnt talk about any possibilities that they might rise to 5.50% . and as i posted in the eurusd thread that i expect that the change in the nonfarm payrolls (Jan) will be less than expected which is going to make the dollar become weaker, because when the number of nonfarm payroll is less that means there is no worries of inflation and if there is no inflation rise, then there no intrest rate rise.
hope that you got me ppl cuz i`m talkin with broken english ... well right now i`m havin a course in australia so i hope that it will be improved.
lets wait
i do agree with you that audusd might start a new impulse.
well in the last days i have posted my analysis and mentioned that everything is just not clear, fundementally i belive that usd is going to have some weakness , but technically audusd fell and there was the form of head & shoulders and after break it it should go to 7570 but we have the weekly up trendline , really everythin was just mixed. now what i see that we need a weekly close above 7766 so we can say that audusd is going next week to 7855. the data of GDP Annualized q/q for usa came out and it was better than expected and then there was a talk in the market that that they may mention that rate might be rised , and thats why the dollar showed some strength but the dollar fell after they decided that the rate will be the same and didnt talk about any possibilities that they might rise to 5.50% . and as i posted in the eurusd thread that i expect that the change in the nonfarm payrolls (Jan) will be less than expected which is going to make the dollar become weaker, because when the number of nonfarm payroll is less that means there is no worries of inflation and if there is no inflation rise, then there no intrest rate rise.
hope that you got me ppl cuz i`m talkin with broken english ... well right now i`m havin a course in australia so i hope that it will be improved.
lets wait
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Hi Naif,
Yes it's pretty hard to pick a direction at the moment. I'm sitting on the sidelines. All it will take is for Bernanke to cough at the wrong place in one of his speeches and we'll be off again.
Yes it's pretty hard to pick a direction at the moment. I'm sitting on the sidelines. All it will take is for Bernanke to cough at the wrong place in one of his speeches and we'll be off again.
hi again kauri..
there is anouther thing, i`m still tryin to explain something. when the ism manfacturing (jan) data came out and it were less than expected, the eurusd in the 1st two min rised to 3056 then it fell 3017 , and the ism data is very important , cuz what the market is watchin out right now is the change in nonfarm payrolls (jan) to make their expectations for the intrest rate hike, I had an explation which its not correct, its that i think that the dogs ( commercial traders ) already knew the result of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its better than expected, and they wanted to close their positions.
but when i look to the cot charts , it shows to me that the commercial want the eurusd around 1.3180 , so the result of the chagne of nonfarm payrolls is going to be less than expected.
if the explanation is right then i dont think that the audusd is going to break 7766 , and if the change of nonfarm payrolls less than expected then the aud will close above 7766.
its a little complicated but this is forex
i hope you can help me out to find a good explanation for whats gonna happen tomorrow.
there is anouther thing, i`m still tryin to explain something. when the ism manfacturing (jan) data came out and it were less than expected, the eurusd in the 1st two min rised to 3056 then it fell 3017 , and the ism data is very important , cuz what the market is watchin out right now is the change in nonfarm payrolls (jan) to make their expectations for the intrest rate hike, I had an explation which its not correct, its that i think that the dogs ( commercial traders ) already knew the result of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its better than expected, and they wanted to close their positions.
but when i look to the cot charts , it shows to me that the commercial want the eurusd around 1.3180 , so the result of the chagne of nonfarm payrolls is going to be less than expected.
if the explanation is right then i dont think that the audusd is going to break 7766 , and if the change of nonfarm payrolls less than expected then the aud will close above 7766.
its a little complicated but this is forex
i hope you can help me out to find a good explanation for whats gonna happen tomorrow.
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Naif said:
Hi Naif,
Yep, I can't see much direction in the $US pairs at the moment either, next week maybe. Have a good weekend...
Kauri
now its 1:30am australia local time, this hour audusd should close above 7768 so the new 4h bar will open above this resistance and it will become a suuport, also it will break up the new traingle in the 4h chart.
three hours bernanke will speak, so we should beaware.
the chart....
three hours bernanke will speak, so we should beaware.
the chart....
Attachments
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
Kauri
E/W Learner
- Joined
- 3 September 2005
- Posts
- 3,428
- Reactions
- 11
- Joined
- 12 April 2005
- Posts
- 842
- Reactions
- 0
Job number were out at that time, I thought the numbers would be bad, and were but the unemployment rate dropping seems to have had more effect than the job numbers.
Similar threads
