AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

XJO looks like its hitting resistance. Will it break through? The Aussie looks like it will fall which could mean that the XJO will follow. The XJO looks like its hit resistance and appears to be breaking out but too many indicators are saying that it will fail.

Anyway, signal to sell longs activated.

 

[tech/a]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Interesting charts.

Advanced Get.

As expected the sell signals against the trend are only a 50/50 proposition as the buy signals with the trend are pretty good.

Why all the other oscillators?
Many do the same thing.
Like taking a Bus,Bike,Cab,Car,to the same destination---different tool same result--you get there.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Interesting charts.

Advanced Get.

As expected the sell signals against the trend are only a 50/50 proposition as the buy signals with the trend are pretty good.

Why all the other oscillators?
Many do the same thing.
Like taking a Bus,Bike,Cab,Car,to the same destination---different tool same result--you get there.

Hi Tech

Good question about the oscillators. I only use about 2 and volume and the others make it look pretty. Sell signals also activated by candlestick patterns and divergence.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Also forgot to mention that I use discretionary trading utilising intra day price action via candlesticks to give me entry and exit signals. I'm a short term trader and enjoy trading noise. I use long term view (weekly and monthly charts) to get general direction and use support and resistance as a guiding pattern for when I want to get out. Basically, its all based on intraday movements. If I'm not comfortagble with a certain movement than I get out. Its meant that I cut my profits (and losses) sometimes but thats just how it goes.

When you say oscillators, what qualifies as an oscillator? I didn't realise that I was using all oscillators. I'm also using optiongear instead of Advance get. I like the functionality and scanning capabilities of Advanced get but prefer the simplicity of optiongear.

 

[tech/a]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

DTM.

All but volume are oscillators.
They record values of price movement either between high and low values or above or below zero.Their movement between extremes are osillations.

The only difference between each is the method of calculation.
Calculation is limited to using 5 components.Open/Close/High/Low/ and vloume.Each oscillator will use one or all of these in its calculation.There are 100s of combinations but ALL study the same thing--Past Price action.

I'm sure your successful in the way you trade otherwise you wouldnt trade that way!

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Update on the Aussie dollar. Looks like resistance has been broken and could see the dollar fall on monday. Next target around .7600 or there abouts.

The XJO also looks for a reversal either this week or next week. The trigger would be the falling Aussie if I'm correct. I think the fall could begin more this week than next but definitely it should happen by next week. I'm a bit bear inclined at the moment but we'll find out in next couple of days. Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts are lined up in terms of divergence. We could see reversal on Tuesday. Look for the candlestick signal on monday otherwise definitely by next week, 25 -28 Sept (Gann dates).

Banks look overbought and could lead the way down.

Just my two bobs worth and not to be taken seriously.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Gold looking toppy and over bought. Unleaded petrol also looking oversold and oil entering into over sold stage on the daily charts.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Moving along ..... here's an update.... 4 hr bars ......

Can we eventually break through all this overhead resistance ?

Trade at your own risk .....

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK, Fed raises rates and the Aussie hasn't dropped that much. Looks like the raising of rates were already priced in. The aussie has been consolidating on an earlier support line (not as strong as the thicker line of resistance) and is building up to move up. My elliot wave count has 5. The Aussie looks set to go up again. Momentum has also turned back up.

Long term on the monthly charts, the movement is up. Weekly is a bit choppy so look at the daily charts. Its found support from an earlier support line although its not as strong a support as the thicker lines. I've deleted the first target from previous chart because the Aussies in the process of turning around. It doesn't look like a strong movement up but we'll see in the next few days.

The XJO seems to be powering on now and have hit 4500. Look for a retracement. The 10 year bonds appear oversold at the moment so look for it to bounce.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK, here is the correponding XJO. A sell signal was given today after the US Fed upped the interest rates. Look for the retracement tomorrow. We'll see if its more than a three day retracement or longer in a few days. My eod data hasn't finished downloading so the inverted hammer is more a bearish solid body.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

And also the elliot wave for the XJO. The daily and weekly charts are lining up perfectly for a big correction. Both are reaching the end of their wave 5 count. Could come this month, could come next month, but its coming. My reasoning for the end of a bull market would be higher interest rates if the Aussie drops too much.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

AUD starting to make an upwards run. Currently sitting on .7723.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Yep Agree DTM.

I might take some au now, on the hopes it'll break the 0.775 line.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Yep Agree DTM.

I might take some au now, on the hopes it'll break the 0.775 line.

Might be best to work within the high and low of its range. Its giving nice slow movements so maybe use those parameters. I don't have live data but it gives nice and slow predictable moves during the day. Its down at the bottom of its range right now.

10 year bonds have bounced today and XJO's struggling to get up but still staying above its support.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The Aussies down from the overnight trading and is somewhere near .7620 and is resting on one of my support lines. Its not too far off from my initial first projection. My charts won't show the overnight sessions range and will only show the Australian trading session. I will post it up once it comes online.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

I didnt take the trade!!! Phew!
see it now whooska .... Down.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

I didnt take the trade!!! Phew!
see it now whooska .... Down.

Yes, once it dropped from its high it broke below my main support. Its resting on a long term support line so its in a strong position. I have other support lines there too but won't add it in because theres too many lines as it is. The daily charts show that it could bounce back up again, weekly shows its still in a bit of a down cycle (not a strong one) while the monthly shows that its still in its up cycle. Support at about .7620 and go long from there if there is a bounce. A good stop loss should be used on this one because of the size of drop in todays trading.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Ok. Overnight session has seen the Aussie drop to .7580 and is resting on my initial target of the red support line. Will this hold? We'll see in the morning.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK. Looking at the Aussie USD relationship, we can see that the strength of the USD is an inverse relationship to the Dow Jones. Looking at the Dow, its set to go up after bouncing of long term support. I've drawn in the Aussie dollar movements and we can see that it follows the Dow very closely. In my opinion, the Dow has just completed an elliot wave 5 down and is turning to go back up again.

Looking at the Dow long term, I am very bearish but bullish short term. The US dollar is looking bullish long term, although theres still room for a short term move down. Same as the Aussie, it looks toppy even though short term wise, it looks to go up (although it doesn't look like a strong move up). The only thing I can deduce is that theres still room for the Aussie market to move up. Since it looks like the Aussie looks to go up, I don't think interest rates won't go up. The XJO has been resting on support last week and todays jump has pushed it into a resistance line and if it doesn't break it, then there could be a correction. Tomorrow will give a signal if theres a correction.

PS. I tried to post this earlier but website was down.

 

[DTM]

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The Aussie has been holding on support of around .7570 (as drawn by my red line from an earlier chart, suggesting that the selloff is finding support).

Oil was up again last night with the uncertainty about the damage from hurricane Rita but looks to be a weak move up. The XJO has built up a bit of steam from yesterdays momentum so longs should be held unless a clear signal is given today that a reversal will occur (seems to happen a lot on Tuesdays). It has hit a previous support turned to resistance line and seems to be also touching a long term resistance line thats not included in the chart.

Also look at the XJO and how it conforms to the fib ratio drawn in which shows that a top in the market could be at 4680. It could also mean that if oil drops, the USD will rise, and a rising US dollar is bad for the US and Australian markets.