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April 2025 DDD

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Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/s...ovide-nuclear-microreactors-us-military-bases

I like uranium here for a long trade:

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Plays into the longer term trend of reshoring.

Reshoring will require gobs of energy. Nuclear will increasingly play a role particularly as oil will become highly political. US oil independence will revolve largely around shale. The Trump administration do not seem to be shale friendly.


jog on
duc
 
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US/China imports/exports:https://www.azcentral.com/story/ent...us-tariffs-imports-exports-trump/83008270007/

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Cutting China out of global manufacturing chains will simultaneously send inflation surging to levels that blow up western sovereign bond markets again in 5 days or less. While severely pressuring China into dumping the USD-denominated assets it has recycled USD surpluses into, Bessent’s plan is certain to force the Fed into YCC or its functional equivalent.

Now remember, Bessent was working for Soros when Soros blew up the Bank of England, forcing a devaluation of the Pound.

Bessent isn’t trying to “break the PBOC like he broke the BOE” as some have postulated. He’s “breaking the Fed like he broke the BOE”.

Bessent’s plan is certain to collapse the global bond market as was empirically proven with MOVE at 172 but the Trump Administration also just showed us that they will never let the UST market collapse. So Bessent’s plan will force the Fed into YCC or its functional equivalent. Sending USD down and inflation up on a slight lag.

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Essentially what Bessent plans to do is replace the UST market as a recycling post for trade deficits to gold. Gold will once again be the neutral reserve asset.

I thought that gold would see $4000oz this year. Now with the speed that the Trump administration is breaking stuff I think that $6000oz is on the cards or essentially 100% from current prices.


jog on
duc
 
KILL the dollar , might be an exaggeration

now the US dollar may die from self-inflected wounds

lose the reserve currency status ( for the USD ) hmmm that is possible
 
ducati916 said:


jog on
duc
Click to expand...
I find hard to believe that the HKD could be the one, Hong Kong is a very tired center and with its integration within mainland China, i believe this is not going to happen.
They will use a bric currency instead
I would not even be surprised if the HKD is just cancelled and only the renminbi/yuan remains.
Note: but agree on Russia China India huge next economic big thing
 
One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines — it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.

In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation?

Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.
​


Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries — but capital requirements limit how far they can go. When hedge funds unwind and banks can’t pick up the slack, liquidity evaporates.

This isn’t just plumbing — it’s the infrastructure behind U.S. debt issuance.

If this gets worse, the Fed doesn’t pivot because inflation is tamed. It pivots because the machine is breaking.

Watch bonds, not stocks.

Buy gold. Sell dollars.




From Steve Miran:






Trump closing the USD financial asset window last week means US deficits which have always been sterilized via the USD in US financial markets by foreign capital inflows into stocks and bonds are no longer being sterilised this way. They are now going to be sterilised via gold, US reshoring, which is US manufacturing plant and associated infrastructure.

The markets seem to believe that after last week's basis trade blow-up, that USD weakness will resolve higher, similar to 2019.

This is highly unlikely unless:

1. The USD trades low enough to balance US trade; or
2. Trump reverses himself on closing the USD financial asset window.


So those calling for a resumption of the stock bull market...


jog on
duc
 
Oil News:


Pre-tariff frenzy has helped Chinese exports beat expectations in Q1 2025, with total exports rising 12.4% year-over-year in March, triple of analyst expectations and amounting to a hefty $313.9 billion.

- Not even US-China trade saw notable changes last month as Beijing’s trade surplus surged to $27.6 billion on the back of a 4.5% year-over-year increase in bilateral trade.

- Chinese refiners also boosted their crude imports last month, taking in 12.1 million b/d of oil, the highest monthly tally since August 2023, with April preliminary data showing no signs of slowing down this month.

- Judging by Singapore’s bunkering demand data, container throughput in March was the highest since China officially came out of its 2021-2022 lockdowns, indicating that global trade front-loaded operations into Q1 2025, setting the stage for a large Trump tariff-driven slump in Q2.

Market Movers

- One of the most closely followed exploration wells of this year, the Elektra-1 wildcat spudded offshore Cyprus by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) turned out to be dry, sapping hopes of a larger Eastern Mediterranean bonanza.

- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) inked a 20-year term supply deal for offtake of 1.5 mtpa LNG from the Rio Grande LNG project developed by NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT), to be sourced from the prospective Train 4.

- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has flagged to investors ahead of its April 29 Q1 earnings call that the company will see an increase of $4 billion in total debt, taking its total debt burden to more than $27 billion.

- ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, is reportedly considering buying the US natural gas assets of investment firm Aethon Energy Management, potentially valued at up to $10 billion.

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

As they digest President Trump’s tariff warfare, oil market participants are now correcting their past outlooks. The International Energy Agency carved 300,000 b/d out of its 2025 demand outlook, and OPEC lowered its forecast, too, albeit only by half as much as the IEA. Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas have all slashed some $5-15 per barrel from their previous outlooks, with Brent and WTI now trading around $65 and $61.50, respectively.

Iran, US Laud ‘Positive’ Start to Talks. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi held negotiations in Oman this past weekend that both sides dubbed ‘constructive’, agreeing to hold another round of talks on nuclear proliferation as soon as next weekend.

IEA Forecasts European LNG Boom. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predictsthat Europe’s LNG imports will increase by 25% in 2025, equivalent to 33 billion cubic metres, as the continent needs to replenish depleted stocks and no longer can avail itself of Russian pipeline gas.

Venezuela Takes Over Chevron Cargoes. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA has ordered Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to return two cargoes of exported crude and cancelled the US major’s upcoming oil loadings, in reaction to US President Trump’s sanction snapback starting May 27.

Colombia’s Gas Ambition Soars. After Colombia confirmed that the Sirius gas prospect contains 6 TCf, the largest gas find in the history of the country, the joint Ecopetrol-Petrobras JV announced it would start offering 135 MMCf/d of gas to the wider market from 2029 onward.

Key Canadian Pipeline to Restart Soon. Canadian midstream firm South Bow (TSE:SOBO) plans to restart the 620,000 b/d Keystone pipeline on Tuesday after flows were halted last week on the back of a 3,500-barrel spill in North Dakota, but it still needs a written PHMSA approval to do so.

UK Pushes China Away From Its Steel Sector. The UK Business Ministry enactedemergency legislation, oddly on a Saturday, to take control of Chinese-owned British Steel after the operator, Jingye Group, refused a $650 million government aid package to repair damaged furnaces.

Italy Mulls Delaying Out Coal Phaseout. Italy’s government is reconsidering the country’s end-2025 mandate to end coal-powered generation in the country, as utility major Enel and oil firm ENI both criticized the policy, calling it a ‘folly’ at a time when Germany maximizes coal to meet demand.

OPEC Cuts Its Demand Outlook on Trade Wars. Reflecting global trade pressures stemming from the US-China trade war, OPEC has lowered its demand forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 by a uniform 150,000 b/d, expecting this year’s oil consumption growth to be 1.3 million b/d.

Saudi Arabia Wants US Nuclear Deal. Saudi Arabia and the US will soon sign a preliminary agreement to develop a civil nuclear industry in the Middle Eastern kingdom, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, although the two sides still negotiate over some non-proliferation clauses.

Beijing Sticks to Its Love of Coal. China’s economic and energy planner NDRC announced that Beijing would continue building coal-fired power plants through 2027 to stabilize the power grid in regions that don’t have enough clean energy potential, moving the country’s coal demand peak to 2028.

The Sky is the Limit for Gold in 2025. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,700 per ounce, citing ever-stronger purchasing demand from central banks and higher-than-expected trade war fallout, with the bullion currently trading above $3,200/oz.

Unfazed by Tariffs, Copper Recovers. Donald Trump’s exemption of China-produced consumer electronics from the 145% import tariff has buoyed copper prices and sent the May COMEX contract back to $10,170 per metric tonne during intraday trading, a hefty $1,000/mt higher than LME prices.

Next-Gen US LNG Export Plant Runs into Delays. The Lake Charles LNG project developed by US firm Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) could only be commissioned in 2031 after the midstream major asked for a 3-year deadline extension, citing Biden’s LNG moratorium and the lack of contracting availability as key causes.




There is conflicting data on this. Tom Lee demonstrates otherwise.



Market clearly believes, correctly, that the Fed is the buyer of last resort.




Watch bond yields and USD. $MOVE is high and still creeping higher.


jog on
duc
 
  • The Volatility Index ($VIX) almost closed below 30 today for the first time in two weeks after reaching a five-year high of 52 last Tuesday. It spent most of the day below 30 but closed slightly above.
  • Jason points out that when the $VIX has dropped from 50 to 30, it has historically been a 'bear killer.' This has only happened four times since the $VIX was created (1987, 2002, 2009, and 2020).
  • While the sample size is too small to be statistically significant, this hasn't been a bearish signal. The following week was a coin flip, with the $SPX higher 50% of the time. However, $SPX was always higher 12 months later, with a median gain of +17.9%.
The Takeaway: The $VIX nearly closed below 30 today after reaching a five-year high of 52 last week. While the sample size is limited, this has historically signaled that the worst of the storm has already passed.


Known uranium deposits will run out by 2080 if demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, industry bodies said.

Several countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, tech firms view the once-controversial technology as a clean way to power data centers, and it is increasingly seen as a reliable source of low-carbon energy.

But it takes 10-15 years to get a new mine running, uranium firms warn, and reserves are concentrated.

There are other reasons for the West to feel a sense of urgency despite the far-off deadline: Russia’s Rosatom commands a significant share of the global nuclear market, OilPrice.com reported, and is responsible for more than half of reactors under construction worldwide.


jog on
duc
 
So from JC:


  • CNN says the big rally "sounds like a dead cat bounce."
  • Epic moves have everybody extremely scared.
  • We're buying more stocks.
"Dead cat bounce" is based on the idea that if it falls from a great enough height even a dead cat will bounce.

Charming stuff.

So, when was the last time you tossed a dead cat off a 50-story building?

And what idiot would think a cat hitting the pavement at 50 miles an hour had any hope of surviving?

I have no answers to these important economic questions.

But I can at least say one thing, generally speaking...

When outfits like CNN start printing the words "dead cat bounce" – referring to a false rally within a broader decline – you should be skeptical.

(CNN just fired everyone because they're so terrible. But I digress...)

Here at TrendLabs, we are "facts only."

And yes, our composite sentiment index is showing bearishness at 16-month highs.

But the facts say this bull market remains intact. We are looking for stocks to buy, not to sell.

The cat is very much alive.

Let's cut to the chart...

Roll With the Punches​


This is what the S&P 500 looks like this morning:



You can see the decline from the first-quarter highs – that's the long, red arrow pointing down and to the right.

And you can see the epic rally over the past week. In some market circles, it's a "dead cat bounce." In others this kind of price action is called a "sucker's rally."

It's the same basic idea: There's no substance to support the up-move.

The strength in stocks is only short-term, all the willing buyers are suckers, and the market will roll over and collapse again. Because it's dead.

The big, long, green arrow pointing up and to the right? Everybody's wondering whether it's real.

They're talking about dead pets and how springy they might or might not be. CNN is saying this is a temporary, short-lived recovery for stocks.

And that's good news for people like you and me.

Let's Get To What's Real​


So, was that it? Now we roll over, sit around and wait for a new leg higher?

That's what a lot of sentiment indicators say. That's how fund managers are currently positioned. That's also what retail investors believe.

We know. We have the data. Our key levels – where old resistance is becoming support – are holding.

And we're taking the other side of this pessimism.

This week we bought some Healthcare stocks. Last week we bought some Financial Technology stocks, or "Fintech," as the kids call it these days.

Nobody knows anything, least of all CNN.

So all this talk about dead cat bounces and sucker's rallies is exactly what we want to hear.

This is the kind of divergence we love.

Stay tuned for more on this...

Stay sharp,


So it's one thing to look at stocks:





The Bond market is still not a happy place. Yields are still high, $MOVE is in the upper levels and USD is horrible. Will they all bounce/resolve to help stocks?

US policy, driven by Trump is the end the recycling of foreign surpluses into US assets (capital flows) as this contributes to the deficits, which are clearly unsustainable.

Trump is moving the US towards the BRICS reserve asset...gold.

Trump also wants to reshore the US manufacturing base, in part through using the very blunt policy of tariffs.

New bull market?


jog on
duc
 
Trump's efforts to more directly control the Fed are coming at a perilous time, given the details of this economic moment.
The big picture: Trump wants the Fed to cut rates, but paradoxically, the more he succeeds at limiting its independence, the greater the risk of inflation expectations and long-term interest rates shooting higher.
  • The central policy question right now is whether the Fed should view inflation spurred by tariffs as a one-time shock or one that fuels longer-lasting price pressures.
  • If it's a one-time adjustment, the Fed can feel confident cutting interest rates to combat economic weakness — if the central bank maintains its credibility that it will do whatever it takes to keep inflation low in the long run.
  • This month, Treasury bonds have sold off amid doubts about the U.S. government's volatile trade policies. If Fed independence came into serious question, it would likely fuel further selling, causing long-term interest rates to rise — contrary to Trump's stated goals.
State of play: Besides Trump's latest social media posts, the Supreme Court is weighing a case that questions the constitutionality of independent agencies like the Fed.
  • The Federal Reserve Act states that Powell and other governors cannot be fired except for cause — not over mere policy disagreements.
  • The Trump administration is arguing that the president has the authority to fire leaders of similarly structured agencies, including the National Labor Relations Board and Federal Trade Commission.
  • Administration lawyers are asking the Supreme Court to overturn a 90-year-old precedent that found the FTC's structure to be constitutional and that the president could not fire an FTC commissioner.
Yes, but: There are some reasons to think that, even if the Supreme Court rules in Trump's favor on the core constitutional question, it could find a way to carve out protection for Fed independence.
  • In a case about agency funding last year, for example, Justice Samuel Alito called the Fed "a unique institution with a unique historical background" and that its funding mechanism should be seen as "a special arrangement sanctioned by history."
Flashback: The Fed, created in 1914, was the culmination of America's long wrestling with whether to have a central bank.
  • A seminal early Supreme Court case, McCulloch v. Maryland in 1819, was over whether Congress could create a national bank.
  • The core domestic issue of Andrew Jackson's populist presidency was a fight over whether to shutter the Second Bank of the United States.
  • The Fed's unwieldy structure — with presidentially appointed governors in Washington and 12 countrywide reserve banks with their own boards of directors — was the result of an elaborate compromise balancing many interests: big banks and small banks, agriculture and manufacturing, democratic accountability and dispersed power.
The bottom line: "Fed independence is more important than ever at a time when there is risk to underlying inflation and inflation expectations ... and global portfolio reallocation out of the U.S.," wrote Evercore ISI analysts.



Trump's early morning Fed attack suggested the central bank should be more like its counterparts in Europe, which cut rates today for the seventh time in 10 months by a quarter percentage point.
  • But with the ECB's rate cuts come the dreary economic conditions that explain why euro-area officials are lowering borrowing costs.
State of play: The ECB is aiming to shield its already sluggish economy from the tariff impact.
  • The euro area grew just 0.7% in 2024. Germany, its largest economy, has contracted for two straight years.
  • Europe's productivity prospects are bleak relative to the U.S., as outlined in a damning report last year by legendary European official and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
What they're saying: "The major escalation in global trade tensions and associated uncertainties will likely lower euro area growth by dampening exports, and it may drag down investment and consumption," ECB president Christine Lagarde said at a press conference.
  • "We are in the presence of a negative demand shock. No question about that," Lagarde said.
The other side: Europe does not have the luxury of the "wait and see" approach the Powell-led Fed has adopted.
  • There are concerns that tariffs will weigh on America's economy, but the data suggests hiring and spending remain steady, for now.
  • The U.S. economy had been resilient in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes in recent years. That was not the case for Europe.
Lagarde warned the global trade chaos could put downward pressure on inflation, reminiscent of the 2010s when inflation remained persistently below its 2% target.
  • "Increasing global trade disruptions are adding more uncertainty to the outlook for euro area inflation. Falling global energy prices and appreciation of the euro could put further downward pressure on inflation," Lagarde said.
  • "This could be reinforced by lower demand for euro area exports owing to higher tariffs, and a re-routing of exports into the euro area from countries with overcapacity."
There are bright spots: Germany is ramping up fiscal spending to invest in its economy, namely defense manufacturing — a move prompted by fears the Trump administration will withdraw from NATO.








Not a terrible week.




But are stocks giving the wrong impression? Is the Bond market now safe to go back into the water?


jog on
duc
 
When you think a recession is coming, it generally pays to sell first and ask questions later. Waiting for confirmation that the economy is declining is just too costly. For a spectacular demonstration, look to the events of 2008, when the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that a recession had started in January of that year — but didn’t announce this until December:

From the start of the recession to the NBER’s acknowledgement, the S&P 500 almost halved. It was better to take a judgment first. That’s why there’s particular interest in the latest survey of global fund managers by Bank of America Corp., the first since the “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement, which showed a dramatic increase in fears of an economic hard landing:

If big fund managers take fright, then their actions can guarantee a market selloff as they move their money to safety. And they’re not the only ones growing much more nervous. Odds of a recession this year have ballooned on the Polymarket betting site, and now stand at more than 50%:

Traditional indicators of market negativity show a similar trend. The total assets of State Street Global Advisors’ GLD exchange-traded fund, the biggest fund for retail investors to buy gold, topped $100 billion for the first time Wednesday, as a rising price and growing interest from small investors combined:

(Parenthetically, the gold rally provides vital context for the stock market. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price, which effectively prices the index in gold rather than dollars, has tanked this year and is almost back to its pandemic-era low. If you choose to view the post-Covid rally as one big side effect of cheap money, this would tend to support you.)

Combining gold with copper provides another alarming recession signal. The former rises when people are worried, while a gain in the latter shows that economic activity is expanding. So when copper drops to its lowest in gold terms in at least 38 years, that’s concerning (although it’s worth noting that the previous low in 1987 didn’t prefigure a recession):

There’s another problem with making a confident recession prediction. Formerly reliable market indicators have been foretelling one for so long without success that it’s getting harder to take them seriously. The New York Fed recession probability indicator is based on the bond yield curve. Over time, an inverted curve, in which long bonds yield less than shorter-term instruments, has been a surefire sign of trouble ahead. But it’s never been more confident of an oncoming recession than it was in 2022, and so far it hasn’t come to pass:

Another virtually foolproof signal comes from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators, which smooshes together various measures of the economy and market. Just like the yield curve, it successfully predicted the last four recessions, but also a fifth that still hasn’t happened:

One problem with getting out of the market when everyone is scared of a recession is that this is often a great contrarian time to buy. The American Association of Individual Investors has for decades asked its members a weekly question: Are you bullish or bearish? The recent peak in the majority of bears over bulls makes this the fourth-biggest incidence of bearishness since 1987. Here it is in context:

All were either good or great times to buy, with the significant exception of the angst over subprime bankruptcies in January 2008, when a few months later investors discovered they hadn’t seen nothing yet. Similarly, BofA has a measure of sentiment based on how much cash fund managers are holding, their hopes for growth, and the amount they’ve allocated to equities. With the exception of the response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, all the previous times when sentiment dropped this low proved decent times to buy:

A further problem: The recession fears this time around have been driven entirely by a new policy (US tariffs) that might yet be revoked. The chances are that it will create an epic buying opportunity at some point in the future. But that time to buy will come much later if there is a recession. While the uncertainty over tariffs persists, it will be hard to put together a market rally.



jog on
duc
 
So with markets closed today...



This has been happening for a while.

This however is something that I hadn't really noticed before but has a potentially important impact:



Full:https://ago.mo.gov/attorney-general...ri will now move to,judgment can be read here.



Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...mpanies-from-investing-in-us-as-tensions-rise





Full:https://gcaptain.com/china-halts-panama-port-sale-to-blackrock/




So the purpose of the Trump plan is to 'encourage' investment into US infra-structure and plant so that the US can again manufacture. None of the above will be particularly encouraging to foreign investors to do so.

Rather, why not reinvest surpluses into a neutral reserve asset...gold.



New overnight: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Paris today that the U.S. may be ready to "move on" from efforts at a Russia-Ukraine peace deal if there isn't progress in "a matter of days."
  • Rubio said: "We're not going to continue with this endeavor for weeks and months on end. So we need to determine very quickly now, and I'm talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks." Get the latest.
1 big thing: United States of Emergency

Data: Brennan Center for Justice. Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios
In the first 89 days of this term, President Trump has declared more national emergencies — more creatively and more aggressively — than any president in modern American history, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
  • Why it matters: Powers originally crafted to give the president flexibility in rare moments of crisis now form the backbone of Trump's agenda — enabling him to steamroll Congress and govern by unilateral decree through his first three months in office.
So far, Trump has invoked national emergencies to impose the largest tariffs in a century, accelerate energy and mineral production, and militarize federal lands at the Southwest border.
  • Legal scholars fear that with his assault on the judiciary, Trump is exploiting loosely written statutes to try to upend the constitutional balance of power.
How it works: The president can declare a national emergency at any time, for almost any reason, without needing to prove a specific threat or get approval from Congress.
  • The National Emergencies Act of 1976, which unlocks more than 120 special statutory powers, originally included a "legislative veto" that gave Congress the ability to terminate an emergency with a simple majority vote.
  • But in 1983, the Supreme Court ruled that legislative vetoes are unconstitutional — effectively stripping Congress of its original check, and making it far harder to rein in a president's emergency declarations.
The big picture: Since then, presidents have largely relied on "norms" and "self-restraint" to avoid abusing emergency powers for non-crises, says Elizabeth Goitein, senior director of the Brennan Center's Liberty and National Security Program.
  • That precedent was broken in 2019, Goitein argues, when Trump declared a national emergency in order to bypass Congress and access billions of dollars in funding for a border wall.
President Biden stretched his authority as well, drawing criticism in 2022 for citing the COVID national emergency to unilaterally forgive student loan debt.
  • But Trump's second-term actions have plunged the U.S. firmly into uncharted territory — redrawing the limits of executive power in real time, and fueling fears of a permanent emergency state.
Zoom in: Trump's justification for his tariffs cites the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which can be invoked only if the U.S. faces an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to its national security, foreign policy, or economy.
  • According to the White House, America's decades-old trading relationships — including with tiny countries and uninhabited islands — qualify as such threats.
  • As a result, a 1977 law originally designed to target hostile foreign powers — and never before used to impose tariffs — is now being deployed to rewrite the global economic order.
White House principal deputy press secretary Harrison Fields said in a statement: "Troubling times call for serious responses. The previous administration left President Trump a nation in decline — financially vulnerable, with unsecured borders and dangerously unfair trade deals. The President is leveraging every tool the Constitution provides to Make America Great Again."



The Trump administration's informal end-of-April deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine is drawing near without any commitments from the Kremlin, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

  • Why it matters: U.S.-Russia talks have shown little clear progress and President Trump's promise of a swift peace deal appears nowhere near fruition.
Still, Trump insisted yesterday that a ceasefire was getting closer and that he'd be "hearing from Russia this week."

  • U.S. officials have described the end of April as an informal deadline, after which Russia could face fresh sanctions.
Behind the scenes: White House envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin for more than four hours last Friday in St. Petersburg.

  • Witkoff said he emerged with a clearer idea of Putin's demands for a peace settlement.
But he didn't get Putin's approval for a 30-day ceasefire plan Trump has been pushing for six weeks as a first step toward longer-term peace, and which Ukraine has signed off on.




Manufacturers expect dismal business conditions that could plunge the sector back into a recessionary-like state.
Why it matters: Trump's trade war is intended to revitalize domestic factories by discouraging the consumption of foreign-made goods.
  • But for the moment, surveys show manufacturers expect the opposite: less expansion, plummeting sales, job cuts and higher prices. It's a signal that they see high hurdles and economic pain as the White House aims to delink the U.S. manufacturing sector from the rest of the world.
Driving the news: Regional Federal Reserve banks regularly poll manufacturers about their economic outlooks. Those surveys, including some releaesd this week, have turned uniformly gloomy.
  • New York factory owners turned "pessimistic about the outlook, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than twenty-year history of the survey," according to the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey.
  • Capital spending plans to expand business were flat this month. Respondents anticipate higher input costs and selling prices. They expect supply shortages to worsen in the next six months.
The Philadelphia Fed's survey of manufacturers in Delaware, and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, showed indicators for general activity, new orders and shipments turned negative.
  • More firms expect future business activity to pick up than those that anticipate it will slow. Employment is steady now, though an index measuring future hiring intentions fell to its lowest level since 2016.
  • Expectations for steepest prices paid and received jumped to the highest since June 2021, the early months of the pandemic inflation shock.
Yes, but: The negativity in the regional surveys, which are very volatile month to month, is not evident in big-picture data — a similar phenomenon to the plummeting economic pessimism among consumers.
  • For instance, manufacturing output jumped by 0.3% after rising nearly a full percentage point in February, Federal Reserve data on Wednesday showed. For the second straight month, output of autos helped boost overall production.
  • Cars were in high demand last month — dealership retail sales jumped last month, new data this week showed — which economists attributed to a surge in purchases ahead of tariffs taking effect.
Flashback: In recent years, the manufacturing sector was hit by a "rolling recession" that left the rest of the economy relatively unscathed. It felt the pain of the Fed's historic interest rate hiking campaign.
  • The sluggishness seemed over, with more optimism as the Fed kicked off interest rate cuts and Trump readied to return to the White House.
  • The Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity, for example, was in contractionary territory for 26 straight months through December, then positive in January and February before flipping negative again in March.




Oil News:


Friday, April 18th, 2025

As the Western hemisphere wound down trading activity with the onset of the Easter holidays, crude oil markets have posted an impressive 7% week-on-week rise, with ICE Brent now back at $68 per barrel. New OPEC+ compensation quotas, tighter US sanctions on Iran, and relatively upbeat March macro data have all boosted sentiment in the short term, although further US-China escalation could upend this week’s recovery.

US Ratchets Up Pressure on Iran. The Trump Administration issued new sanctions to curb Iran’s oil exports, including the Shengxing Chemical teapot refinery based in Shandong province for purchasing more than $1 billion worth of Iranian crude, the second Chinese refiner to be hit with direct sanctions.

EIA Is Bleeding People After DOGE Check. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reported to have lost more than 100 employees in the latest round of resignation offers put forward by Elon Musk’s DOGE drive, possibly losing up to 40% of the EIA’s 350 employees, putting data publications at risk.

Mauritania Exports Its First Ever Gas Cargo. UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has finally loaded its first LNG shipment - aboard the British Sponsor LNG carrier - from the 2.3 mtpa Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) facility offshore Mauritania, following a six-week delay to the export terminal’s commissioning.

Equinor’s US Wind Ambitions Dissipate. US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum mandated a halt to construction of the Empire Wind offshore project developed by Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) off the New York Coast, citing insufficient environmental analysis before approval.

BlackRock Gets Ready to Buy Up Utilities. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission allowed US investment firm BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) to own major stakes of public utility companies, a joint 2023 motion of 16 Republican-led states decrying its ESG investing demands on utility companies.

Bahrain Resumes LNG Imports. Despite being a producer of oil and sharing a huge oil field with Saudi Arabia, the Middle Eastern kingdom of Bahrain is set to resumeimporting LNG after a five-year hiatus, with a 170,000 m3 cargo from the US Sabine Pass LNG facility moving towards the Arab Gulf.

Europe Has Now Only Two Russian Buyers. The Czech Republic has officially halted its imports of Russian crude after the Transalpine pipeline (TAL) from Italy’s Trieste boosted throughput capacity to 900,000 b/d, with Czech refiners now getting all of their oil needs from the seas.

Congo Taps Blackwater Know-How. Erik Prince, the founder of private military firm Blackwater, has allegedly signed an agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo to secure the country’s vast metal reserves and reduce cross-border smuggling of commodities amidst ongoing warfare in Eastern Congo.

Trading Firms Eye Italian Refinery Sale. Global commodity traders Glencore (LON:GLEN) and Gunvor are considering buying Italy’s API downstream firm, operating two refineries in Ancona and Trecate, totalling 200,000 b/d in capacity, with Azerbaijan’s state oil firm SOCAR also keen to purchase the asset.

Force Majeure Saps Malaysia’s LNG Supply. Malaysia’s Petronas, operator of the giant 29.3 mtpa Bintulu LNG export terminal, is experiencing production issues due to boiler malfunction, setting a pricing floor for Asia’s JKM gas futures that are set to rebound from their 9-month low of $12 per mmBtu.

China Hits New Coal Record. China posted another all-time high in coal production as the March supply totals amounted to 440.6 million tonnes, up 9.6% from a year ago, worsening the country’s coal oversupply and forcing power utilities to cut their coal imports by 6% month-over-month in March.

Refiners Flee California Regulatory Hell. US refining giant Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) filed its request to ‘idle, restructure or cease’ operations at its 170,000 b/d Benicia refinery next to San Francisco by April 2026, marking the second refinery closure in California in less than a year amidst rising regulatory costs.

America’s Copper Dream Is On. Following years of stalling and controversy, the Trump administration is set to approve a land swap that would pave the way for Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and its project partner BHP (NYSE:BHP) to launch one of the world’s largest copper mines, the Resolution Copper project in Arizona.

Ukraine Signs Watered-Down Minerals Deal. Ukrainian authorities stated that Kyiv and Washington have signed a memorandum of intent on developing mineral resources in the Eastern European country, aiming for the establishment of a Ukraine reconstruction investment fund, with a full deal expected next week.


From JC;


Great Grief on a Good Friday​

by JC Parets, CMT​

​
  • "Those are the people buying puts with the VIX at 50."
  • A record number of fund managers intend to cut U.S. equities.
  • The money will be made where the crowd eventually will come.
So I'm greenside on No. 1 at Augusta National Golf Club.
My friend, who's been going to The Masters every year since he was eight, leans in and whispers to me...
"You see those people over there?"
And he points to the overcrowded tee box at the first...
"Those are the people buying puts with the VIX at 50."
And – on the front row of the No. 1 green all by ourselves – we were holding what we knew they'd be buying, and soon.
In other words, we were selling what they were buying.
When I talk about a "divergence," I'm referring to the market doing one thing while investors and traders are doing something else.
We do not want to be where the people already are.
We want to be where the people are going to come.
Why? Because that's where the money is made.

Passionately Pessimistic​


This is what sentiment looks like on Good Friday...

The American Association of Individual Investors just published one of the top three most bearish readings in the past 20 years.
That black points to the fact that more than 50% of individual investors are bearish for the eighth consecutive week.
That's never happened before in history – not during the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession, the Dot-Com Bubble or even the COVID Crash.
Here are eight more signs pessimism is piling up:
  • Short ETF Volume is hitting all-time highs.
  • According to the Bank of America Fund Manager surgery, Investor Risk Appetite fell to new two-year lows.
  • The percentage of fund managers who think global corporate profit growth will improve just hit the third lowest levels in 30 years.
  • The profit outlook from investors is the most unfavorable since 2007.
  • Recession expectations rose to the fourth-highest level in the past 20 years.
  • Global growth expectations are hitting new 30-year lows
  • The Global Fund Manager Survey Investor Sentiment sinks to its fifth-lowest level on record.
  • The latest readings show a record number of fund managers intend to cut U.S. equities.
Everybody is scared to death of U.S. stocks. A recession is imminent.
But the bull market is alive and well. And nobody knows what the economy is going to do.
It might be a good thing that the stock market is closed today.
Gives people a chance to step back and take a look at the big picture.
As I wrote on Monday, I was fortunate to be able to go to The Masters last weekend.
On Saturday, I saw Rory McIlroy sink a birdie on No. 1 from that front-row greenside spot.
Why did I get to see that? Because I'm special? No.
It's because we were where we knew the people would eventually want to be.
These folks were standing outside the tee box, struggling for an angle.
Then they ran down to the green, missing the in-between moments as golfers and their caddies navigate the links.
They're excited. How could they not be excited? I was excited.
But they don't know how to see what they want – and need – to see.
So they just follow the crowd...
And they miss everything.
They were mispositioned.
Fortunately for me, my host knew exactly where to be and when to be there.
He's a financial advisor and a client too.
So he knows what that means when it comes to seeing what's really happening in the stock market.

Your Perspective Matters​


We talk about the primary trend for stocks being up and to the right.
The divergence right now – and it's a big one – is that investors just don't believe it.
In fact they expect the exact opposite of what is really happening – at historic proportions.
We bought stocks this week. We bought stocks last week.
I'm pretty sure we'll buy more stocks next week.
This is the type of behavior that will be rewarded, and soon.
​


Interesting that he is so bullish.



jog on
duc
 
well i have been buying ( non-US ) stocks but very very selectively ( and reducing some as well )
 
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