AMT Model & Methodology
- Thread starter Frank D
- Start date
You can develop systems that are completely independent of a model
and methodology. So it wasn’t pointless.
Systems are only as good the coding used and reliant on market
conditions. A system never factors in all the nuisances of the market on
the Monthly, Weekly and Daily basis.
Some that do use hard-coded systems can still optimize and improve
the performance of that system using a methodology or chart reading.
Some just rely on systems and don’t give a toss about methodologies
or applying chart reading skills. I gather this is where you fit in.
Personally I prefer to be a discretionary systematic trader relying on my chart
reading skills to get me by, than relying on hard-coded systems.
SPI Monthly and Weekly
As per my end of year post around 4956-68 is a major resistance level in
the Aussie market in 2010, and I have a view of a larger trend reversal
other than the usual medium term monthly reversals we normally see
each Quarter.
Resistance was tested overnight in Sycom
As per my Weekly post, my expectation was to begin this week with a
short-term reversal pattern (2-day) with the first confirming pattern a
move below the 5-day 50% level.
This is occurring on the 2nd day @ 4919
2nd confirming tool on a potential reversal pattern will be a close below
the cycle lows @ 4880.
Around these upper levels in the market I just can’t be bullish, unless
the market begins to consolidate above 4956 for a number of
weeks. Therefore the view during this Quarter is to make it’s was
back towards the 50% levels in January
The reversal pattern in the S&P 500 isn’t as robust as a normal
reversal patterns go, because the confirming pattern on Monday
found support on the 5-day 50% level when it should have closed
below:- break and continue on Tuesday
Anyway, the initial view was a 2-day reversal, and 2-days doesn’t make
a major reversal but it can lead to a potential continuation of my view
over the next 5-days.
As per my end of year post around 4956-68 is a major resistance level in
the Aussie market in 2010, and I have a view of a larger trend reversal
other than the usual medium term monthly reversals we normally see
each Quarter.
Resistance was tested overnight in Sycom
As per my Weekly post, my expectation was to begin this week with a
short-term reversal pattern (2-day) with the first confirming pattern a
move below the 5-day 50% level.
This is occurring on the 2nd day @ 4919
2nd confirming tool on a potential reversal pattern will be a close below
the cycle lows @ 4880.
Around these upper levels in the market I just can’t be bullish, unless
the market begins to consolidate above 4956 for a number of
weeks. Therefore the view during this Quarter is to make it’s was
back towards the 50% levels in January
The reversal pattern in the S&P 500 isn’t as robust as a normal
reversal patterns go, because the confirming pattern on Monday
found support on the 5-day 50% level when it should have closed
below:- break and continue on Tuesday
Anyway, the initial view was a 2-day reversal, and 2-days doesn’t make
a major reversal but it can lead to a potential continuation of my view
over the next 5-days.
Attachments
S&P 500
That completes the short-term 2-day reversal pattern to begin the week....
Even though I'm bearish around these upper levels looking for a larger
trend reversal, it wouldn't surprise me to see the next 3-days remain
within the 5-day range. (5-day pattern day trading)
And then align the next set-up next week.
That completes the short-term 2-day reversal pattern to begin the week....
Even though I'm bearish around these upper levels looking for a larger
trend reversal, it wouldn't surprise me to see the next 3-days remain
within the 5-day range. (5-day pattern day trading)
And then align the next set-up next week.
Attachments
S&P 500
"I'm expecting a short-term reversal pattern from
these levels next week, but by Wednesday if price is still trading above
1133, the market looks well supported "....Weekly Report
Yesterday’s 2-day reversal pattern down into Tuesday’s lows and above
the previous week’s highs has the market well supported and remaining in
a tight 5-day pattern range.
I’d be extremely interested in how the market trades over the next
3-days.
If Monday is trading anywhere near the 5-day lows next week, I wouldn’t
go near any longs for the rest of the following week.
"I'm expecting a short-term reversal pattern from
these levels next week, but by Wednesday if price is still trading above
1133, the market looks well supported "....Weekly Report
Yesterday’s 2-day reversal pattern down into Tuesday’s lows and above
the previous week’s highs has the market well supported and remaining in
a tight 5-day pattern range.
I’d be extremely interested in how the market trades over the next
3-days.
If Monday is trading anywhere near the 5-day lows next week, I wouldn’t
go near any longs for the rest of the following week.
Attachments
DOW Futures
Precise high in the DOW around the January highs and Friday follows a
5-day pattern reversal into the daily lows, and as the purple lines show in
the chart I’m expecting the trend to continue down next week.
2nd Validation of the trend moving lower will be price trading below
the Weekly 50% levels.
The price action on Friday if occurring anywhere else within the
Secondary trends can often set-up further gains at the start of
next week:- 5-day support and above the Weekly 50% levels and the continuation of the trend (UP)
If the next session in the market closes higher, my view of the market
going down could be wrong, but little things can grow into big things and
the current price action that is occurring in January is acting in a manner
that often leads into big things.
And so far the price action is acting in an expectant manner since the start
of the month.
If the next session closes on its lows but not necessarily below the
Weekly 50% levels, then the day after might be the start of the
market continuing down.
Precise high in the DOW around the January highs and Friday follows a
5-day pattern reversal into the daily lows, and as the purple lines show in
the chart I’m expecting the trend to continue down next week.
2nd Validation of the trend moving lower will be price trading below
the Weekly 50% levels.
The price action on Friday if occurring anywhere else within the
Secondary trends can often set-up further gains at the start of
next week:- 5-day support and above the Weekly 50% levels and the continuation of the trend (UP)
If the next session in the market closes higher, my view of the market
going down could be wrong, but little things can grow into big things and
the current price action that is occurring in January is acting in a manner
that often leads into big things.
And so far the price action is acting in an expectant manner since the start
of the month.
If the next session closes on its lows but not necessarily below the
Weekly 50% levels, then the day after might be the start of the
market continuing down.
Attachments
SPI futures
As you know I’m currently bearish on the markets and yesterday’s
price action should have remained below 4871. (Weekly 50%)
I also understand that Weekly 50% level support from the previous week
will normally begin with a 1-2 day counter-trend move (yesterday) at
the start of the new week.
What looked like a short-term long set-up for many, has now turned into
a retest of the 3-day SELL cycle (@ 4907) and a break of key levels
once again, which helps match my original view.
To validate any reversal pattern and continuation down price needs to
break support (weekly lows), which normally only happens overnight in
sycom.
However, there are no leads in the S&P because of the public holiday
to help confirm my view, as the S&P in Globex has followed a similar
pattern of rising up from Support.
As you know I’m currently bearish on the markets and yesterday’s
price action should have remained below 4871. (Weekly 50%)
I also understand that Weekly 50% level support from the previous week
will normally begin with a 1-2 day counter-trend move (yesterday) at
the start of the new week.
What looked like a short-term long set-up for many, has now turned into
a retest of the 3-day SELL cycle (@ 4907) and a break of key levels
once again, which helps match my original view.
To validate any reversal pattern and continuation down price needs to
break support (weekly lows), which normally only happens overnight in
sycom.
However, there are no leads in the S&P because of the public holiday
to help confirm my view, as the S&P in Globex has followed a similar
pattern of rising up from Support.
Attachments
SPI Futures
SPI is trading around the Weekly lows & near the January 50% level.
These levels are robust support zones, and can often be the bottom
of a ‘downward trend’ and then the market continues higher thereafter.
If this exact same pattern was happening in December then it will
normally support the market and continue upwards and follow the trend
into next months highs.
As you are aware I’m expecting more downside the closer we come to
the end of the month, and I’m not expecting these levels to hold because
of my overall view of 2010 (below 4956)
However, I need US markets to follow and break support next week,
because these levels in the SPI don’t often fail during the day session,
even though there’s a breakout of the daily lows on Thursday @ 4821.
SPI is trading around the Weekly lows & near the January 50% level.
These levels are robust support zones, and can often be the bottom
of a ‘downward trend’ and then the market continues higher thereafter.
If this exact same pattern was happening in December then it will
normally support the market and continue upwards and follow the trend
into next months highs.
As you are aware I’m expecting more downside the closer we come to
the end of the month, and I’m not expecting these levels to hold because
of my overall view of 2010 (below 4956)
However, I need US markets to follow and break support next week,
because these levels in the SPI don’t often fail during the day session,
even though there’s a breakout of the daily lows on Thursday @ 4821.
Attachments
SPI Futures
Break of support in sycom as US markets tumble on the Obama announcement Re-banks and hedge funds.
It was eventually going to happen regardless of the news or not.
At this stage my view is in the Monthly chart on the left, with an
overall pullback towards 4300, but that might take a number of months
to eventually happen.
I could be wrong on the pullback, and support holds in January @ 4616, and
the market pushes upwards from the February 50% level back towards
the highs again.
However, I can gauge that when the next month begins, and I stick with
my forecast from the start of the year @ 4300.
Break of support in sycom as US markets tumble on the Obama announcement Re-banks and hedge funds.
It was eventually going to happen regardless of the news or not.
At this stage my view is in the Monthly chart on the left, with an
overall pullback towards 4300, but that might take a number of months
to eventually happen.
I could be wrong on the pullback, and support holds in January @ 4616, and
the market pushes upwards from the February 50% level back towards
the highs again.
However, I can gauge that when the next month begins, and I stick with
my forecast from the start of the year @ 4300.
Attachments
DOW S&P Futures
US markets complete the reversal pattern from January highs into the 50% levels.
I would expected some volatility around these levels for the next 5-days,
but it doesn't mean that the trend is going to find support and the begin
the next trend upwards.
That's about 5-days away.
SPI down into support levels @ 4616
US markets complete the reversal pattern from January highs into the 50% levels.
I would expected some volatility around these levels for the next 5-days,
but it doesn't mean that the trend is going to find support and the begin
the next trend upwards.
That's about 5-days away.
SPI down into support levels @ 4616
Attachments
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Uncanny Frank, nice work.
CanOz
CanOz
SPI Monthly and Weekly
As per Weekly report:- "expectation that market will find support but not necessarily move higher, instead remaining in a tight 5-day range around support levels"
There is a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe, with the extension down into this Week's lows @ 4602.
Because of my view that the market is range bound this week, I now
have the expectation that the SPI will try and swing back towards
the Weekly 50% levels by Friday, which matches the February 50%
levels next week.
If the market is going to follow my larger trend reversal down, then
February 50% level should push the SPI towards the February lows.
To verify an up move, price will have to have a higher daily open above
today's highs:- Short-term swing in a larger trend reversal pattern.... otherwise it's heading down into the January lows, as part of the larger trend reversal towards 4300
At this stage I still favour a double monthly pattern down into the Feb
lows, because the current price action is acting like it should continue
down, but I prefer from resistance levels in February.
The further price drops in January, the further it goes down in February towards 4300
As per Weekly report:- "expectation that market will find support but not necessarily move higher, instead remaining in a tight 5-day range around support levels"
There is a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe, with the extension down into this Week's lows @ 4602.
Because of my view that the market is range bound this week, I now
have the expectation that the SPI will try and swing back towards
the Weekly 50% levels by Friday, which matches the February 50%
levels next week.
If the market is going to follow my larger trend reversal down, then
February 50% level should push the SPI towards the February lows.
To verify an up move, price will have to have a higher daily open above
today's highs:- Short-term swing in a larger trend reversal pattern.... otherwise it's heading down into the January lows, as part of the larger trend reversal towards 4300
At this stage I still favour a double monthly pattern down into the Feb
lows, because the current price action is acting like it should continue
down, but I prefer from resistance levels in February.
The further price drops in January, the further it goes down in February towards 4300
Attachments
SPI Futures
Today's open above 4602 and expectation that the SPI is moving into a
2-day counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% levels.
I expected more upside today towards 4668 as a minimum move.
1-day to go until the next month begins, and support levels for
January disappear and shift lower.
However, there are still a couple of days to go until US markets move
into February and they are still above their Monthly 50% levels.
Today's open above 4602 and expectation that the SPI is moving into a
2-day counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% levels.
I expected more upside today towards 4668 as a minimum move.
1-day to go until the next month begins, and support levels for
January disappear and shift lower.
However, there are still a couple of days to go until US markets move
into February and they are still above their Monthly 50% levels.
Attachments
XJO CASH Market
Currently XJO is supported at the close of January….@ 4560
However, my view has always been a pullback towards 4300, with 4318
in the XJO
I feel that level in the first Quarter is a very robust support level….
However, it’s how price responds to the level in the 2nd Quarter around
4600.
Don’t underestimate the primary cycles in the market and the lines of
least resistance.
Bullish market should bounce off 4300 and then continue to push
upwards from 4600 in the 2nd Quarter towards 5200
Bearish pattern, and currently Energy Index looks terrible, can make it’s
way towards much lower prices.....
Or remain in a sideways pattern until the 3rd Quarter begins and
support levels catch up with price/trend (Yellow lows)
Attachments
Frank,
Thank you for posting the chart of the XJO CASH Market together with a detailed analysis.
I checked my levels calculated as explained in you book and they all match so must be on the right track.
The red line has me baffled 1st Quarter 2010 the level is 4559, how is this calculated?
david
Thank you for posting the chart of the XJO CASH Market together with a detailed analysis.
I checked my levels calculated as explained in you book and they all match so must be on the right track.
The red line has me baffled 1st Quarter 2010 the level is 4559, how is this calculated?
david
SPI Futures
Cash Market (XJO) remains supported above 4559...
Whilst the SPI goes through it's usual 2-3 day counter-trend moves
within the trend hitting resistance yesterday.
Current price action suggests more weakness towards February
lows (today 4547)....
However US markets are dynamically different, as they are currently above support levels for the moment.
Cash Market (XJO) remains supported above 4559...
Whilst the SPI goes through it's usual 2-3 day counter-trend moves
within the trend hitting resistance yesterday.
Current price action suggests more weakness towards February
lows (today 4547)....
However US markets are dynamically different, as they are currently above support levels for the moment.
Attachments
SPI Futures
SPI trading near the February lows and normally Friday's price will see a
2-day move back towards the Weekly 50% level.
That's going to depend on the price action in US markets, because I favour
a dip into February's lows this week, however I would prefer US markets
an UP on Monday and into resistance levels.
SPI trading near the February lows and normally Friday's price will see a
2-day move back towards the Weekly 50% level.
That's going to depend on the price action in US markets, because I favour
a dip into February's lows this week, however I would prefer US markets
an UP on Monday and into resistance levels.
Attachments
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