AMP - AMP Limited

[prawn_86]

Im an AMP holder also, and i can see both the pros and cons. Here are my random thoughts...

Pros: Create a finance powerhouse within Aus. Will be one of the largest super providers/managers around. AMP has always been fairly low risk, steady performer, hopefully they can bolt on fairly easily.

Cons: Reduction of divs (probably), integration problems, prolonged takeover offer creating stagnant share price.

Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...

 

[bloomy88]

Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...

Yeah agree with the fact that it is definately going to be a long-term prospect rather than a short-term one.
To combine these two large businesses will require significant expenditure. In the announcement AMP said that they will benefit $250million from operational synergies but I cant see those synergies taking effect straight away.
The other risk of the takeover is if AXA employees/management who actually made the company so profitable leave and then AMP isn't actually getting what they paid for.

There are a lot of factors involved in the process but I still beleive that in the long-term it is going to make AMP a very powerful (and profitable) company

 

[doctorj]

From AMP's perspective, it's great. You take out your main competitor at a bargain price (1.2x EV is pretty good value historically and even today).

Australia is one of the few western markets with stable regulation, an established savings culture AND population growth. Hurrah for AMP.

On the other hand, AXA Group is getting a hold of fast growing Asian assets for something like 1.6x EV. A beachhead in China (and most importantly established distribution channels) on which to grow. AXA Asia Pacific Holders are the one getting a bad deal in all this.

Even a new bid that values the Asian assets at 2.0x EV would be getting it on the cheap IMHO. I can't see AXA Asia Pacific holding AXA off a second time...

 

[bloomy88]

Based on AMP's SP close last night, AMP is now offering AXA $5.68 in consideration for each share.
Getting very close to Richard Allert's (AXA Chairman) 'close top the mark' figure of $6.
I wonder what will happen if AMP's SP keeps rising over the next couple of weeks? AMP might not have to re-sumbmit a better offer....

 

[laurie]

AMP cleared to take over AXA NAB blocked by ACCC should stop others like NAB entering the fray

laurie

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

If you buy AMP at $4 and sell at $6 you will never go wrong.

This stock has an uncanny ability to disappoint believers in its long term ability to provide consistent divis and capital appreciation.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

AMP

Well this could be an interesting one with the Cooper report out.
It will be interesting to see how the industry funds go now that there is a "level playing field" in the past they only had to offer low fee products. Now they have to offer low fee products that perform. Just passing on their members funds to master trusts and then charging low fees for doing so will be challenged by retail funds that say they supply the research to their members. Time will tell but now the government has put the acid on the sector, I don't think the industry funds will be given a free ride.
You can only ride on the shirt tails for so long, the banks(master trusts) will start and charge for their costs.
I may be completely wrong as these are only assumptions.

 

[prawn_86]

I am patiently waiting for sub $5 prices and will then be buying more again. yeild at those levels is good, and as Garpul has pointed out, it tends to have long term cycles between $4 and $6

 

[rumpole]

AMP- AMP

Hello ,

I'm a newbie here. I'm not technically minded, just a punter.

I purchased AMP shares at about $9 before the GFT. They are down to $4 now.

Is the AMP share price terminal, or can it recover if global conditions improve ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: AMP- AMP

Hello ,

I'm a newbie here. I'm not technically minded, just a punter.

I purchased AMP shares at about $9 before the GFT. They are down to $4 now.

Is the AMP share price terminal, or can it recover if global conditions improve ?

I have been a long term trader of AMP. It generally moves between $4 and $8-9, so I myself would not be selling mine at present, in fact I am accumulating.

I do not know if this helps Rumpole. It is forbidden to give specific buy or sell advice on stock forums, as it is against the law.

My regards to she who must be obeyed.

gg

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: AMP- AMP

From July 2007 before the GFC to March 9, 2012. Looks like a falling channel to me. Trade opportunities for $0.30 -$0.40 gains on a reducing entry point. Not familiar with the div/franking/yield.

Can't see it jumping back to $9.00 any time soon.




ps. I may be bias. I did a bundle on this share when I switched from map (in the ascendency) to amp (falling on its' rrse). Long time back. Traded it a few times from March 2009 up to $5.00 but haven't been back.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: AMP- AMP

I was pretty sure that there was already an AMP thread that I had posted on some years ago.

Is it possible to merge this thread with the original.

It is called. AMP AMP Limited

gg

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: AMP- AMP

I was pretty sure that there was already an AMP thread that I had posted on some years ago.

Is it possible to merge this thread with the original.

It is called. AMP AMP Limited

gg

The thread was started 7/8/2004? How far back do you want to go? Calling Doctor Who.....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: AMP- AMP

The thread was started 7/8/2004? How far back do you want to go? Calling Doctor Who.....

lol

That's a beaut chart you posted above nulla, of AMP.

It reminds me of one I saw in a book on Wyckoff, a share trader last century, who described a bottoming pattern that looked similar, lots of stuff about "crossing the creek" etc.

Let's get going with the bull market I say, I'm hungry for the new Bentley SUV when it gets here later this year or next. The Arnage is starting to show it's age.

gg

 

[Nortorious]

What's the current thoughts on AMP?

To me it is looking like it is in an accumulation phase. Based on the sideways movement showing up on the charts.

Thinking an entry around $4 could be a good long trade.

What do others think?

 

[TrendGAIN]

It is definitely sideways! A pick up at $4 would need to be stopped at around $3.90, and no less than $3.75 to make sure you weren't riding it down. Would be nice to pick it up at $4 and ride it to $5.50! I am waiting for a breakout above resistance, with volume, to go long. The dashed purple lines are the linear regression channel lines - perfectly flat!

 

[Nortorious]

It is definitely sideways! A pick up at $4 would need to be stopped at around $3.90, and no less than $3.75 to make sure you weren't riding it down. Would be nice to pick it up at $4 and ride it to $5.50! I am waiting for a breakout above resistance, with volume, to go long. The dashed purple lines are the linear regression channel lines - perfectly flat!

Hi TG,

Thanks for the response and your opinion, very much appreciated.

I'll be looking into this one a bit further and will provide my analysis (although I'm only a rookie so it might need be too accurate) when I can.

Thanks again and will watch this one with interest.

A blue chipper, with a nice dividend and potential for a 25% capital gain. Very enticing if strength appears when it gets back down to $4ish...

 

[Nortorious]

Hi all,

I haven't had a chance to put a chart up here detailing my analysis.

It got back down to the $4ish area yesterday and will be interesting to see if it slices through $4.01.

Looked like there was a little bit of strength supporting it above $4.01.

Will be watching with interest.

 

[Nortorious]

Hi all,

Finally uploaded my analysis. Please remember that I'm very much a junior in this field so don't take any of my analysis as 100% right and don't use it to make an investment decision.

Ok, so what the AMP daily chart is telling me is this:

1. Accumulation phase is well underway
2. The price was pushed down to as low as $3.61 back in August last year. Notice on the bar labelled "A" the volume is ultra high and closed near the high for the day. This indicates buying is happening.
3. The price has bounced up and down for quite some time now and notice how it has gone above and below the trading range I have drawn ($4.19 to $4.37).
4. The price was unable to breach the $4.48 level, which proves the price is not ready to rally upwards.
5. We have had 3 bottoms (below trading range, labelled "B", "C", "D". Volume has slowly decreased showing supply is drying up. Volume is still high on the third but lower than the previous two bottoms.
6. The three bottoms are consecutive higher lows, a good sign that an uptrend is starting to develop.

With all that, what do I expect to see? (and remember I'm a rookie at this!!).

1. I expect price to move back into the trading range over the coming weeks
2. Could possibly see another test around the $4.20 zone (will be looking for low volume)
3. The price will move up to $4.48 area and if it can push through this area with high volume (would enter here for low risk high probability trade). The profit % wouldn't be as high if you entered now, but if you entered now it would be a higher risk entry.

Would be interested to hear your thoughts on the analysis and we can see how this plays out.

Disclosure: I've got some AMP in my super account but entry was poorly timed (as I was still learning about how to analyse charts). I wil be looking at adding more after it breaks through $4.48 with increased volume.

Thanks for taking the time to read.

Best of luck to you

 

[notting]

Last time it bounced of the tenuous diagonal line of support it was reasonably aggressive, yet it still could not penetrate overhead resistance at the top of the current band.
It came down with far more attitude.
This time as it bounces off the same tenuous diagonal line of support it is not ending it's days close to the highs as it attempts to rise.
I'd prefer to be short at this point, though most pros would probably want to see a break below 3.94, and wouldn't be taking any position until a break is confirmed.
It has also gone ex in late Feb so not much to get too happy about in the short term.
These are just my sentiments, I'm no Tech analyst.