AMP - AMP Limited

[still_in_school]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Hi Richkid,

AMP technicals are looking very good at the moment, current stock price is $7.58 - $7.59

Still waiting and ready to pounce on the entry position. ($7.49 - $7.52)

** but, lol.. though im waiting here to pull the triger..

Cheers,
sis

ps.. entry could possibily be today or tomorrow, though.. still sitting and waiting patiently..

 

[still_in_school]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Oh look at the devil, AMP coming down very nicely $7.52 - $7.53

Cheers,
sis

 

[still_in_school]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Hi Guys,

Very Strong uptrend line for AMP.. (currently long with April $7.50 Calls)

So far AMP came to a low of $7.51 for today, though market depth is showing a very strong support at retracement, and at trend support level of $7.50

Currently 102 Buyers at $7.50 wishing to purchase in total 204,975 units.

Cheers,
sis

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Hi sis,
Yep, I've been watching that trend line too, the nervy market is timing it just right for before the profit annct on Thursday. I reckon it'll sit around the range of the last week or so and then react very strongly to the annct, all depends on if it's above expectations, market is certainly expecting very good news or it'll be disapointed.

Technically 7.50 was an ideal point to buy, I'd have my stops close though.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Forgot to mention: notice that the candles were rejecting higher prices, with the last candle it is now rejecting lower prices, especially as prices near trend support. Still need an up day and some decent volume as well if possible.

 

[still_in_school]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Hi Richkid,

was just having a look at the long term charts of AMP, i do believe AMP will channel between $7.50 - $8.00, possibly for a short period of time, and possibly could be for the another 2 months..

in the chart below, sorry its unclear..

the chart has been subdivided into 3 month cycles (purple vertical lines)

there are fibonacci retracement lines, though there not clear on the chart..

AMP long 50% fibonacci retracement, is around the $4.00 mark.. though the consolidation on average is about 3 months.

just on some technical guessing, and not knowing how AMP will technically trade for the next few months, and $8.00 being the retracement, (and $4.00 being the 50% retracement) IMHO, $7.50 - $8.00 will most likely be the trading channel.. till we might see a break above this channel.

at the moment its all technical guessing, but also AMP today, created a new level of support at $7.55, it might be a long guess out.. but AMP does look due for a breather (consolidation)

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my notes, as a suggestion, and that this is only a technical guess, and my technical analysis can and could be wrong..

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.

I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.

Bingo

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.

I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.

Bingo

Bingo, that's a very good reminder about how a price chart, according to TA theory, shows all that we need to know about a co. ie price discounts all. I often see Edwards&Magee refere to the price effect of insider trading, and that was over 50 years ago! Still continuing, but I wouldn't think it that common in bluechips today (eg CBA and TLS surprised), see it often in smaller co's.

My sentiments are the same as yours except with one proviso. Since there has been a lot of talk about AMP's strength (eg. special divs and share buy backs, debt repayments etc) maybe the insiders have decided the market may not react well to the news. ie news will be good but has been factored in, hence any annct tomorrow will have to be very good news (ie above expectations, a surprise). I saw a comment that AMP's profits are hard to value accurately due to the nature of its investment activities. I'll be watching closely, anyone know what time the annct is at?

Long term I am more or less with sis about a long term up trend interspersed with consolidation phases. Not sure if 7.50 will be support, I think a lot depends on tomorrow and whether the recent uptrend is going to be broken solidly or if it'll just hang around, $7.35 may be the more likely lower boundary if it starts to range judging by horizontal support. $8 is a very significant level imho, just look at the chart, that's where the rot really took hold. I would expect it to hang around near $8 once it breaks that resistance level but we'll have to reassess closer to that event. Was a bit surprised to see it fall so far today, good news is it rejected the low and closed a bit higher.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

An article from Bloomberg on AMP's expected profit, a bit conservative compared to the usual local press articles: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=ajYu66SzWJm4&refer=australia

Wonder what time they'll announce it today?

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

It's out and looks OK. Will now have a good read.

Bingo

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Result is higher than expected at $934M, dividend at 14c is in line with expectations and capital return at 40c slightly lower than expected. The big plus is they have flagged another capital return for 2006.

Should push the price up.

Bingo

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Hi Bingo,
Yes, appears to be above high end expectations and other news broadly in line with speculation, all depends on how the herd reacts, price was up a few percent in New Zealand trading early on. I guess it has to go up after yesterday's sell off.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=af3YJIyj2wtg&refer=australia

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Well, well, well, AMP fell to 7.22 in first few minutes of open, a bit stronger now. The EOD prices will tell us what the overall opinion is, I would have thought prices would have gone higher.

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Opendown down at $7.32 which is more in line with my thinking late yesterday about the sell off. The result must have some ramification that are not clear from the superficial numbers. The experts will no doubt give us some idea today.

Bingo

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

So, looks like the charts will tell us alot about future AMP movements, TA will be valuable on this one then. Gap down today is not promising. I'm still sticking to my earlier estimate in line with SIS's observations about consolidating in a broad range well below $8. Still have to say I'm a bit surprised by the low range of trading so far overall. Maybe the tough times ahead for the AllOrds will really crimp AMP's nearterm investment earnings.

Let me know please if you see any good analysis via any of the financial mags, most of the broadsheets just reword co anncts and jazz up any little bits of info.

Gone up to 7.40 now, I should stop looking at the screen now and wait for EOD (smart money) indicators. I've decided against an entry for the time being.

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Oh well, I've followed my gut felling and topped up my holding at $7.36. A bit more than gut I really feel that AMP will have a good year and the price looks good. Effectively $7.02 taking account of capital return (no tax) and dividend.

Bingo

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

After I bought went to $7.10 and are now back over $7.50. Interesting change of heart.

 

[still_in_school]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

keep pushing AMP.. go you little thing..

What a disaster this morning with AMP, excellent announcement, though market reaction different.. though AMP is a turn around story for today..

1. Gaps down on Open
2. Breaks Support $7.25
3. comes to a low of $7.10
4. Recovers - breaks resistance ($7.25
5. Resumes Primary Uptrend..

and finds support back at $7.50

What a turn around story.. geez..

** though im still relying heavily on technical analaysis, this morning AMP sell off should have never of happened, though technical, im still very strong on my technical views of where AMP is heading..

Go you good thing..

Cheers,
sis

 

[Bingo]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Moody's revises AMP ratings outlook
February 17, 2005 - 1:59PM


Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has revised its outlook for AMP Ltd's ratings to positive from stable.

Moody's also affirmed all existing ratings, including AMP Group Holdings Ltd's A3 senior debt rating and AMP Life Ltd's Aa3 insurance financial strength rating.

The outlook revision follows AMP's release of its annual results for 2004.

Moody's said AMP demonstrated good improvements in its operating performance by producing a net profit of $934 million and a reduction in gearing to 27 per cent at the end of 2004 from 55 per cent at the end of 2003.

"The change in outlook reflects the expected continued ongoing improvements in AMP, following its return to its key strengths in the Australasian life and superannuation businesses," Moody's said.

"AMP has taken steps to improve its already strong brand, market position and financial strength.

"AMP is also well positioned for the challenges apparent in Australia's increasingly competitive financial services sector.

"It maintains a presence across the wealth management value chain, in particular a well diversified and extensive distribution approach and product offering."

AMP also announced that it would return about $750 million in capital to shareholders, as well as reduce its debt by returning $265 million to debtholders as it redeems its income securities.

"The proposed capital return to shareholders will be funded from the surplus with AMP Life, ultimately reducing the capitalisation of AMP Life," Moody's noted.

"Moody's believes that its financial strength will remain very strong, assuming it continues to maintain its profitability.

"AMP Life ultilises a robust, and recently improved, capital management methodology which ensures that a sufficient level of capital is maintained at all times in order manage its risk tolerance level."

Moody's said further positive ratings pressure would arise if AMP demonstrated its ability to continue growing profitability and maintaining market share into 2005.

 

[RichKid]

Re: AMP higher today - why?

Technically I'm still a bit concerned about it closing below the recent uptrend support line. Fibonnacci and Gann lines may be more significant now. The rejection of lower prices in today's candle is positive but not conclusive judging by the last few candles that did the same. Understandably a lot of volume today. If results had been way above expectations I think AMP would have gone much higher instead of lower.