America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World

[ducati916]

2. Fiscal policy is run by elected officials.

3. Monetary policy is run by independent central banks. Ours the RBA the USA Fed Reserve.

4. The central bank does NOT dictate or run fiscal policy,

4(a). nor does it implement it.

4(b). It has NO control over goverment deficits or taxes or spending. NONE. It also has little control over the issue of debt via the goverment to fund its activities. It can make recommendations to the goverment and what maturities to issue, but for say Australia its a different body that runs the issuance.

5. Fiscal policy cannot ... and does not set nor ever has set recently how much money is printed.

6. This is the role of the Monetary policy side. In this case of the USA the Federal reserve. It does not take orders from USA Treasury about issuing notes.

7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.

8. Whilst the USA Treasury engraving department prints notes, it takes instruction from the Federal reserve NOT the president or any elected official.

9. Monetary policy is run by the central bank. Most have similar mandates, IGNORING at times totally the wishes of the goverment of the day. In the case of the Federal Reserve its actually not even owned by the goverment, its owned by its member banks. Its member banks appoint heads of the various branches and then, recommends board members to the President who then are approved by the Senate. Removing say a Fed Chair as Trump recently mumbled about is virtually impossible prior to their term expiring. Trump, was upset, the Fed was raising rates when he wanted them falling. This was PRE Covid19.

10. Central banks wear a few hats and some roles are often shared between other independent bodies.
Main role is to maintain LOW inflation.

11. Secondary main common role is full employment implying decent GDP growth.
Other is financial market liquidity and stability along with supervision
Another is currency stability.
Supervision of banks and their adequate provisions for capital and so on.

12. Different nations often share this with other similar totally Independent from the government bodies. APRA is Australia and so on.

13. That these TWO vastly different things, Fiscal policy and Monetary policy are not understood is clear.

I have divided your post into at least 2, possibly 3 answers simply as you seem unable to be concise.

2. Correct.

3. Correct.

4. Correct.

5. Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).

6. Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy, as already identified, are separate.

7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

8. As stated, monetisation of debt is facilitated through the Central bank.

9. Monetary policy is. Correct. We are not however discussing 'Monetary Policy'. We are discussing Fiscal Policy.

10. Correct.

11. Correct.

12. Correct.

13. Sentence lacks coherence. Try again.

jog on
duc

 

[kahuna1]

And my tanty expectation

Sentence lacks coherence. Try again.

Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).

Hmmm thats why they are CALLED Treasury Bonds ... facilitated ... okey dokey, Mr Lawyer. Yep in this case, not in Australia Fed runs the bond sales .... on behalf of Treasury. Not in Australia.

money in circulation increases.

You have been talking about cash .... one does NOT equate to the other. M1 ... is Cash or equivalents. What you have been yammering about ... printing cash.

I have tried .... and failed ...

you seem unable to be concise

Nice red dress. The ringing has been replaced by shrill screaming, sadly.

Again I ask please turn off your webcam when posting.

 

[ducati916]

M1 ... which you keep pointing to. USA abandoned M3 I think some time ago, but yes its expanded.

1. Every day it expands and contracts. Waving I told you so that they are printing more cash due to your chart whilst ignoring the Economy went from 9 trillion to 22.5 trillion so of course, cash on issue, INCREASED .... to facilitate commerce cash issued went up accordingly.

2. Having now wasted a few hours reading your beliefs, and trying .... trying to understand ... your theories, but failing because they are contrary to not my opinion but, total and complete lack of understanding or economics even at a basic level.

3. I do think where your being led astray with M1 and your theory is or error I can now see.

4. You showed a Wikipedia definition of what is in M1 ... which was, incorrect in so far as its incomplete.

1. The economy, measured in goods and services produced, increases from $9T to $22.5T (your figures). There is no requirement for the 'money supply' to increase. A finite supply of money can accomodate any increase in production through the adjustment of prices.

2. More personal insults. Are you so insecure that you cannot communicate without personal insults?

3. Ok, wait for it.......

4. Incorrect. Here is the definition that I used:



Which comes from here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRENCY

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. Yes cash notes and coin ... but ... also inside M1 there are demand deposits.

2. USA Federal reserve is a bank. It requires others to firstly have capital reserves there which it is required to pay an interest rate upon. Secondly over and above those are excess amounts that also require interest to be paid upon. These are DEMAND deposits.

1. Correct. But once again your lack of attention to detail demonstrates your error. We are (and were) discussing the 'currency' component of M1. Remember this chart that Mr Rederob posted on your behalf?



See at the top left...'Currency in Circulation'.

2. Agreed.

jog on
duc

 

[kahuna1]

Ralph Please turn it off ...





M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
Your link ... no currency was printed.

Omitting Demand (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts from your universe ....

to make your pet theory correct ?

Ralph I am so sad !!

THis is the currency ... you allude to ... since late March the chart ...
Currency in circulation includes paper currency and coin held both by the public and in the vaults of depository institutions. The total includes Treasury estimates of coins outstanding and Treasury paper currency outstanding. This definition of currency in circulation differs from the currency component of the money stock, a measure of currency used in some other Federal Reserve reports (for example, the H.6 release), which excludes currency held in vaults of depository institutions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WCURCIR#0


Virtually NO change .... NONE ..
Then we have M1 ..

which is not just cash but the things your pretending are not included ...

(2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts.

But also includes cash ... and coin ...

It has risen 1,000 billion.




So your theory ... they are printing cash ...
Cash on issue .... SAME ... rise in M1 minus change in Cash is 1,000 billion.

They are not printing cash. Where did this 1 trillion come from last moth if they were not printing cash as you seem to believe ? Clearly they were not.

As I requested maybe another thread for this, which did not occur I have been quite polite.

When told monetary policy is fiscal policy, or issuing debt securities is something else, Monetization which is issuing cash, my responses have been restrained.

USA Treasury of course has an account with the USA Federal reserve. Its initial needs are met through sale of debt securities whether they be bonds or shorter notes. Unlike a bank, It does not require reserves always be there. Without looking, if it should run slightly the red via not issuing enough securities I believe its charged the Discount rate which is above the cash rate.

So when an economy size in dollar terms rises by 250% .... the amount of cash the central bank is not needed to be adjusted accordingly ? CASH ... Cash on issue. Not M1 broadly ... nor M2.

Golly ...so in 1920 there was enough cash on issue with an economy a mere 100 billion verses 22.5 trillion 100 years latter ? Really ? My my ...

And according to you ... there is no adjustment needed ?

Thanks Ralph

 

[kahuna1]

My comment

7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.

This is the topic at hand. ... Printing cash.

Your response is

5. Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).


It issues debt securities NOT cash. Not coin. Not notes. Not currency.

Me ...
7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.

your response ...
7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

Monetisises is converting to cash. USA treasury issuing a debt security a bond, is not printing cash.

This is the NUB of what I believe your theory is.

We are as you said talking about a fiscal policy of printing cash or something like that.
I can go and get your exact quote ... it beggars belief, to be blunt.

Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,

Wilbur Ross head of Treasury right now I believe cannot order the Fed to issue cash. Print money. Issue more coin. I believe it would require several changes to the actual constitution and about 10 different acts.

The notes, currency, yes if issued ... I would call a monetization as its increasing cash.
This obviously does not and is not occurring at any alarming rate outside the growth of the overall economy.

If the economy in the last 100 years has gone from 100 billion in size to 22.5 trillion, the currency on issue is that the economy is 225 times the size it was, one would expect the Cash as in currency and coin to be at least 225 times MORE than 1920 or say 2.5 times the 2000 level.

You wave the chart that shows an expected increase in currency issued over time as proof, again and again.

USA Bonds and Treasury bonds or shorter securities are NOT cash, they are debt instruments.

They are issued by the USA Treasury on behalf of the USA goverment Fiscal side activities.

Cash ... currency and coin ... for the last 100 years has been issued by the USA Federal Reserve. A private and independent company in the case of the USA. Of course, its implied its fully backed by the USA goverment. That is another debate about other issues which, I neither have the inclination or desire to enter.

One is issued by the Fed ... the other via the USA Treasury.
One is cash ... currency ... the other is a debt security.

Quite different and distinct.

Every time this distinction is pointed out, you allude to Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy ... has not much to do with printing cash. Nor does the Federal reserve on the main with fiscal policy decision other than basically collecting the rubbish via assisting Treasury sell its debt securities.

To omit things to suit your view as highlighted. I am not sure if its baiting or trolling ? Or merely strongly held religious type beliefs akin to conspiracy theories. An aside, but when presented with such things, dogmas and gibberish theories, I initially was polite. I am still being polite given the responses.

It is what it is. On every note issued ... right at the top ... FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE ... along with the seal on the left and whilst signed by the Treasury department and their seal, not issuance is solely under Federal Reserve since 1913.

Enough ... Please dont come back. Start a new thread as was suggested some time ago.

 

[ducati916]

1. Yes cash notes and coin ... but ... also inside M1 there are demand deposits.

2. USA Federal reserve is a bank. It requires others to firstly have capital reserves there which it is required to pay an interest rate upon. Secondly over and above those are excess amounts that also require interest to be paid upon. These are DEMAND deposits.

3. Able to be demanded with NO notice at all. They are part of the M1 as are cheque accounts which one may have with a bank, they can be demanded with NO notice.

4. Since Trump declared an emergency mid March 2020, USA Federal reserve has barely issued any new cash. NONE ....

5. The M1 has however risen by over 1,000 billion. The printing of cash did not occur.

6. The actual QE amount of new bonds the Federal reserve purchased was much more than 1,000 billion.

7. M1 .... whilst it has Demand deposits and those accounts that pay interest via the FED .... the rate and mechanisms going on are complex. Being polite, that, our level of understanding is clearly vastly different, I will simply somewhat. The Federal reserve every day has a cash target. It conducts open market operations to increase or decrease liquidity of cash to get the CASH rate being traded for overnight cash to its target. That's 0.25% right now.

8. IT does so, via either adding liquidity or draining it. It will enter repurchase agreements where it buys bonds or Tnotes ... issued by the Treasury, not the Fed ... and credits their account. Or it will do reverse repos .... they are a SWAP .... they may be overnight, or for a few days r a week and recently pollution the issue was extreme illiquidity in this market and the Fed had to do term repos for much longer periods.

9. All these effect M1. Not for long and for good reason. Cash rate is 0.25% ... the rate paid for reserves and excess in your Fed account is 0.1% ....

10. If as you postulate and insist that M1 going up or down has anything at all to do with Fiscal policy or clear absolute evidence of printing money is incorrect.

11. A bank will not keep excess funds it needs above reserves paying 0.1% when the overnight cash rate is 0.25% .... it would have an opportunity cost of 0.15% which on billions is massive. Some with these accounts and non banks but requiring demand deposits they will need accept this penalty and in extreme times often the banks themselves USA this top of the line, central bank as preferred despite the cost as they are unsure of the credit risk or counterparty banks even massive ones. At times one sees the two largest banks NOT lending to to each other excess reserves of cash and the central bank one side being used a ultra safe depositor ... rarely ... but other side lender of last resort and using things like the discount window.

13. QE and bond buying, same thing, DURATION s just different.
Instead of an overnight liquidity swap ... I give you my bonds a security and the next day I give them back when you return cash plus 0.25% interest. .... QE or outright bond buying ... 1 month 1 year one decade ... same thing. No different. That the Fed is buying NOT USA goverment issued Treasuries or notes, but lower grade ones, but Premium A+ ... credit rated, is another topic.

14. The goverment does not order the Fed to do it, it does it by itself. Monetary policy.

15. The Central bank cannot order the goverment to raise or lower taxes, and in the case of the USA fed, it rarely even comments on the absurd dent the USA has and insane Fiscal policies. Running a massive 5% to GDP deficit pre 2020 when stock markets are at all time highs, INSANE. Doing the same running a stimulus via over spending when employment is at all time lows, again insane.

16. Conversely .... the goverment cannot .... order the central bank to issue currency in the form of notes, nor what level of interest rates is correct. That is monetary policy.

17. Of course one wants things rowing in the same direction. both momentary and fiscal policy set to either stimulate or contract activity. Sadly, its often not the case, and Fiscally the USA was all taps open in 2019 whilst ignoring the debt, deficit and all other things. Fiscally they halved the tax paid by cooperates since 2000 as a percentage of GDP and 33% of the 1980 level.

18. USA ... is run for the few.

19. I am hoping, but not seriously expecting this to help a better understanding of Fiscal and monetary policy.

20. If you were to suggest every day as the central bank is adjusting liquidity via buying or selling bonds or shorter term notes, its actually printing cash, and wheeling it around,or then burning it, when draining the liquidity, the actual process of what M1 and M2 and roles of Fiscal and Monetary policy may become clearer.

Have fun

1. Correct.

2. Correct.

3. Correct

4. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

5. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

6. Haven't checked.

7. Agreed.

8. Agreed.

9. For the moment I would accept this. Unimportant to the discussion.

10. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

11. Beyond the scope of discussion. Irrelevant.

13. Monetary Policy. Irrelevant to discussion.

14. Correct.

15. Correct as to premise. Your opinion irrelevant.

16. Government, when running a fiscal deficit, issues debt, which the Fed. monetises. This is expanding the currency component of M1. Do government employees get paid with Treasury Securities? No.

17. Opinion. Irrelevant.

18. Opinion. Irrelevant.

19. Opinion. Irrelevant.

20. Non-sensical. Irrelevant.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

And my tanty expectation



View attachment 103483



Hmmm thats why they are CALLED Treasury Bonds ... facilitated ... okey dokey, Mr Lawyer. Yep in this case, not in Australia Fed runs the bond sales .... on behalf of Treasury. Not in Australia.



You have been talking about cash .... one does NOT equate to the other. M1 ... is Cash or equivalents. What you have been yammering about ... printing cash.

I have tried .... and failed ...



Nice red dress. The ringing has been replaced by shrill screaming, sadly.

Again I ask please turn off your webcam when posting.

Nothing on this post actually requires an answer or response.

ASF is a community of likeminded people (for the most-part) interested in the financial markets. The community will be a mixture from all walks of life.

Here we have a chap, who claims to be involved professionally in the finance industry, which means that he and/or his firm, will have clients.

Would you send drivel like this to your clients?

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1. M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

2. Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
Your link ... no currency was printed.

3. Omitting Demand (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts from your universe ....

4. to make your pet theory correct ?

Ralph I am so sad !!

5. THis is the currency ... you allude to ... since late March the chart ...
Currency in circulation includes paper currency and coin held both by the public and in the vaults of depository institutions. The total includes Treasury estimates of coins outstanding and Treasury paper currency outstanding. This definition of currency in circulation differs from the currency component of the money stock, a measure of currency used in some other Federal Reserve reports (for example, the H.6 release), which excludes currency held in vaults of depository institutions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WCURCIR#0
View attachment 103488

6. Virtually NO change .... NONE ..
Then we have M1 ..

which is not just cash but the things your pretending are not included ...

(2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts.

But also includes cash ... and coin ...

It has risen 1,000 billion.

View attachment 103489


7. So your theory ... they are printing cash ...
Cash on issue .... SAME ... rise in M1 minus change in Cash is 1,000 billion.

8. They are not printing cash. Where did this 1 trillion come from last moth if they were not printing cash as you seem to believe ? Clearly they were not.

9. As I requested maybe another thread for this, which did not occur I have been quite polite.

10. When told monetary policy is fiscal policy, or issuing debt securities is something else, Monetization which is issuing cash, my responses have been restrained.

11. USA Treasury of course has an account with the USA Federal reserve. Its initial needs are met through sale of debt securities whether they be bonds or shorter notes. Unlike a bank, It does not require reserves always be there. Without looking, if it should run slightly the red via not issuing enough securities I believe its charged the Discount rate which is above the cash rate.

12. So when an economy size in dollar terms rises by 250% .... the amount of cash the central bank is not needed to be adjusted accordingly ? CASH ... Cash on issue. Not M1 broadly ... nor M2.

13. Golly ...so in 1920 there was enough cash on issue with an economy a mere 100 billion verses 22.5 trillion 100 years latter ? Really ? My my ...

14. And according to you ... there is no adjustment needed ?

Thanks Ralph

1 - 6. The definition in [1] is correct. [3] & [4] relate to [2].

"Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
Your link ... no currency was printed."

A number of points:

(a) This is incorrect, as is demonstrated by the chart that you posted within this post; and
(b) Even if you were correct, that is not the issue.

So to (a)



This details the weekly average of currency in circulation: starting 6 April 2020 we have $1,880B. Ending 11 May 2020 we have $1,925B +/- for an increase of +/- $45B in currency.

Therefore your assertion in (a) is incorrect.
As for (b): as usual, you ignore the actual issues and through misrepresentation (lies) try to alter the issues. Clearly this is just to try and dig yourself out of the hole that you have dug.

7. Incoherent.

8. That cash has increased by $45B +/-, rather suggests that they are expanding the money supply old chap.

9. Irrelevant.

10. They haven't been restrained. They have been either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish.

11. Irrelevant.

12 - 14. I thought you claimed to have a Masters Degree in Finance and to have an expert grasp of Economics? More lies? Clearly, as that was economic theory.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

As you have altered the format somewhat, I'll adjust how I respond.

My comment
(i) Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.
(ii) This is the topic at hand. ... Printing cash.
Your response is
5. Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).

(i) As you see from my quote above: Fiscal Policy consists of the bold and underlined, in purple.

(ii) The issue is not 'printing cash': the issue is:




Next.

It issues debt securities NOT cash. Not coin. Not notes. Not currency.

If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).

Which is stated: see underlined etc in green.




Me ...
7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.
your response ...
7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

Correct.

Monetisises is converting to cash.

Correct.


USA treasury issuing a debt security a bond, is not printing cash.

Correct.

Your issue is that the two statements (above) are both true statements, but they cannot be the basis of a syllogism.



This is the NUB of what I believe your theory is.
We are as you said talking about a fiscal policy of printing cash or something like that.
I can go and get your exact quote ... it beggars belief, to be blunt.

Clearly, if that is your best effort of a summary of my position, from a self-proclaimed Finance Masters graduate and senior Finance professional, you can see why I remain dubious about your honesty.


Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,

Incorrect.

Wilbur Ross head of Treasury right now I believe cannot order the Fed to issue cash. Print money. Issue more coin. I believe it would require several changes to the actual constitution and about 10 different acts.

Irrelevant.

The notes, currency, yes if issued ... I would call a monetization as its increasing cash.
This obviously does not and is not occurring at any alarming rate outside the growth of the overall economy.

Refer to your chart in previous post.

If the economy in the last 100 years has gone from 100 billion in size to 22.5 trillion, the currency on issue is that the economy is 225 times the size it was, one would expect the Cash as in currency and coin to be at least 225 times MORE than 1920 or say 2.5 times the 2000 level.

Why?

You wave the chart that shows an expected increase in currency issued over time as proof, again and again.

Not 'expected', actual increase.

USA Bonds and Treasury bonds or shorter securities are NOT cash, they are debt instruments.

Correct.

They are issued by the USA Treasury on behalf of the USA goverment Fiscal side activities.

Correct.

Cash ... currency and coin ... for the last 100 years has been issued by the USA Federal Reserve. A private and independent company in the case of the USA. Of course, its implied its fully backed by the USA goverment. That is another debate about other issues which, I neither have the inclination or desire to enter.
One is issued by the Fed ... the other via the USA Treasury.
One is cash ... currency ... the other is a debt security.
Quite different and distinct.

All irrelevant to the issue in question.

Every time this distinction is pointed out, you allude to Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy ... has not much to do with printing cash. Nor does the Federal reserve on the main with fiscal policy decision other than basically collecting the rubbish via assisting Treasury sell its debt securities.

Incorrect. See above.

To omit things to suit your view as highlighted. I am not sure if its baiting or trolling ? Or merely strongly held religious type beliefs akin to conspiracy theories. An aside, but when presented with such things, dogmas and gibberish theories, I initially was polite. I am still being polite given the responses.

Your responses have been: either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish. The first 2 are not in issue as anyone can be guilty of that. The latter 2 are however an issue.




It is what it is. On every note issued ... right at the top ... FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE ... along with the seal on the left and whilst signed by the Treasury department and their seal, not issuance is solely under Federal Reserve since 1913.

Correct.

Enough ... Please dont come back. Start a new thread as was suggested some time ago.

jog on
duc

 

[kahuna1]

Your responses have been: either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish. The first 2 are not in issue as anyone can be guilty of that. The latter 2 are however an issue.

Hi Bert,

Thanks for your opinion.

Three questions, since I am fascinated.

I take it you are or were a lawyer or with similar training ?

Obviously still not a full time one, but via your responses ....

Second question is another suspicion that you live in America ?

third is ....

Do you normally speak another language ? Just suspect via your writing style and form possibly your not American born but live there ?

I mean no offense, just, wondering.

On the rest will plod through it.

QE or expansion of money supply, where we agree I suspect to disagree about printing money is an aside.

Of course asset buying expands the overall volume of money out there.
I already know your thoughts on this issue without asking I suspect.

We would both agree via buying the bonds, any bonds nowadays, not just treasuries its good for stocks.
Disagree about the rest more than likely.

I would also point out, the big macro picture, your missing via your beliefs. Not that I can ever prove it, because we would be talking about the future. You seem like a day trader. Picking pennies up in front of a stream roller. Obviously a technical one, but with an interest in the other side, macro and economics.

Amusing, we have not a thing in common. I do look at charts, but only after going via a top down look at things.

I have already shared whom and accurately what I am. Irrelevant in this discussion, and I am not asking you to reveal anything other than 3 hunches. In trade I will reveal, how I can prove whom I am, Not that it matters.

So my 3 questions ? Just interested.

One of yours questions answered ... Would you send drivel like this to your clients?

I dont have clients as such. My income and wealth are not tied to servicing others.
I passed the point of even requiring that many years ago. Actually I never was that end of the business as I said. You seem to doubt that, but I never have needed to serve clients, or their needs, since I started in 1982. Again if you answer my fascination on 3 questions, I will prove it.

 

[Bill M]

This why I hate guns and why I would never live in the USA. If every red neck in the village can have one then it is a failed state.

 

[kahuna1]

Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,

Incorrect.

Really ? They changed the act ? Along with 5 others that would need changing whilst I was asleep. I did quote the 1913 act. Someone else is able to issue notes and is doing so in the USA ?

I note, the two key issues where we stumble, you have gone they are irrelevant or not answered. Cash goes up and down and round and round. That 4.5% of the 1,000 billion increase in a month in M1 is via cash and the rest is something else seems to elude you.

On issue. That in 1920 the economy in the USA was 100 billion and in 2020, was 22.5 trillion, there would likely be say 10 billion of cash as such on issue. In 2020, USD is used instead of local currency on the main as the currency in 7 nations that the USA has invaded and destroyed. I believe each of them alone has 10 billion of USD in notes, in circulation. That's the whole total of the notes on issue in 1920.

Of course as the size of an economy rises, so too must the notes on issue. I did provide a long scale of notes issued and USA economy rose 250% and notes issued rose around 290%. The difference being likely invaded and destroyed economies of other nations. So i suppose yes, they printed more money, but irrelevant in the bigger picture. It moved a total of 40% NET in 20 years in the already provided Chart of notes and currency on issue. In the meantime, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, even inside Iran, Yemen, Libya and Iraq. Likely I missed a few, now conduct part of in some cases most of their transactions in USD. There are others things such as the USA drug habit which are, amusing but the missing cash that month was likely a disruption in nose candy !!

Second easy one, is banks actions and Repo or QE flows.

You say its irrelevant.

Sadly so is monetary policy was your response.

Its missing the forest through the trees. Your myopic view of things. One dimensional. There are a few deeper dimensions which, since your not even seeing the first, I did not want to confuse you further.

I did try, however, failed. I await your answers to my curiosity before we proceed.

I would humbly ask you respond. Lawyer ? Or ex ? USA ? but not born there ? Language suspicion ?

It is relevant to our discussion we have been having.

 

[explod]

https://goldswitzerland.com/total-catastrophe-of-the-currency-system/

The world is stuffed

 

[kahuna1]

The world is stuffed

Hahhah ....

Beyond my back an forth, which I assure you will be amusing in the end.
I too find say the USA to distract us, is again taking the trade war to another level.

Banning chips to Huwaei. USA stocks went not down, but UP.
Shocking numbers, it went down, then went up.

As per normal the plunge protection team is still bloody operating. Harder than even under Trump as he equates the stock market and its performance with the economy. Cooking numbers, magic cures, all is well ... get back to work peasants !! There is no infection.

I am astounded and disgusted by this. On a macro level outside the top 20% which includes all the middle class, they are broke.

BROKE.

Pre Cv19 they held a mere 7% of the assets in the USA down form 24% in 1980. Drip down economics work !! Well work for some.

Fed Reserve did a very large survey and 65% were living paycheck to paycheck. Given that half of the 35 million sent to the unemployment lines had their claims either delayed or refused and now most states are sending them back to work their outlook is dire. Estimated 40% did not pay rent last moth and none of that forgiving or delaying, your evicted !! Or you repay it pronto !! Not when Wilbur Ross head of Commerce owned a bank and like Steve Mnuchin head of Treasury now under Trump, ex Goldman Sachs type, they both foreclosed on people for trivial amounts. One for 84 cents and seized their house.

Ignoring all else. CV19 is a virus. We know what to do to prevent its spread. USA has not and did not do this, and now is sending people back to work.

It did however offer a massive tax cut to the rich. It has bailed out large companies. On the main its ignored the needs of the many over the few.

What the virus does from here is sadly obvious.
What state 80% of people in the USA are in right now actually is worse than at any period since USA was formed. Worse than even the depression for a simple reason, CV19 is there as well. Similar sorts of unemployment, all resources and assets depleted and so on.

The stock market DOES actually represent the economy. Not to agree with Trump, but its business's and they sell things and without people, customers, all be it peasants, those outside the top 20%, these business's even good ones cease to function. Not totally, but, seriously so.

People without money, all reserves gone, terrified in say 40% of the case for their life and health. Not just the old, many young, many have some disease despite being 40 that puts them or a loved one at risk. For others, drinking coolant or bleach, served by Trump will run around and think they are immune. Possibly they are, others not so lucky are not.

Whilst we hope for a vaccine we dont know. We dont know if your even immune to getting it again, because its new. It appears to again have mutated and hitting some very young people. Oh its bliss !!

Any and all economies are being hit. USA just I suspect ended relationships with China and possibly with many others via Trumps recent tangents over the F35 plane. China is about to declare USA and its products as totally unreliable and actually with cause. Its already banned non Chinese hardware and software beyond 2024, yet we have the NASDAQ on the main ignoring this ?

really ? It is off its highs, but, well ... competing with a nation that clearly is ahead of USA and its chips via recent ones from Huwaie and Alibaba along with 3 years behind 5G on the former and makes things that cost 50% ...

Its sad and amusing to watch. Sad for the following.

Watch it ... not being reported in the USA by mainstream media the massive food lines. Not just the poor, the food banks are being swamped by middle class people dropped on their head and abandoned by their goverment totally. A goverment who rushed and bailed out big companies, even oil companies in 16 days and now 6 weeks latter many on these food lines have either not got a cent or had their claims rejected and sent back to work.

The virus numbers for yesterday 27,000 new USA infections and now with close to 3 hours to go another likely 27,000 infections identified. Of course many times that NOT identified and back to work. NOW !!

Amazing ... sickening. Disgusting. And all on display.



I hope you watched it.
If already prior to that there were 30 million in trouble ... now there are 100 million in the USA without food security and in dire straights.

Lets rally !!

Not anti USA, as I am pains to point out I like and love some yanks and lived there for many years.

This is disgusting and horrendous where USA is now in 2020. Lets send them back to work in a pandemic and ignore and downplay the virus, along with economically starve literally people back to work.

Sigh .. I await Ducs reply ... for some amusement value as to who he is verses my hunch.

 

[Bill M]

Amazing ... sickening. Disgusting. And all on display.



I hope you watched it.

I watched it and I am saddened by it and it shouldn't be happening in the richest country in the world. What really upsets me even more is Trump being the leader and can fix it all but he chooses not too. Will the people of the USA be dumb enough to vote this clown back in? Surely not?

 

[SirRumpole]

Hahhah ....

Beyond my back an forth, which I assure you will be amusing in the end.
I too find say the USA to distract us, is again taking the trade war to another level.

Banning chips to Huwaei. USA stocks went not down, but UP.
Shocking numbers, it went down, then went up.

As per normal the plunge protection team is still bloody operating. Harder than even under Trump as he equates the stock market and its performance with the economy. Cooking numbers, magic cures, all is well ... get back to work peasants !! There is no infection.

I am astounded and disgusted by this. On a macro level outside the top 20% which includes all the middle class, they are broke.

BROKE.

Pre Cv19 they held a mere 7% of the assets in the USA down form 24% in 1980. Drip down economics work !! Well work for some.

Fed Reserve did a very large survey and 65% were living paycheck to paycheck. Given that half of the 35 million sent to the unemployment lines had their claims either delayed or refused and now most states are sending them back to work their outlook is dire. Estimated 40% did not pay rent last moth and none of that forgiving or delaying, your evicted !! Or you repay it pronto !! Not when Wilbur Ross head of Commerce owned a bank and like Steve Mnuchin head of Treasury now under Trump, ex Goldman Sachs type, they both foreclosed on people for trivial amounts. One for 84 cents and seized their house.

Ignoring all else. CV19 is a virus. We know what to do to prevent its spread. USA has not and did not do this, and now is sending people back to work.

It did however offer a massive tax cut to the rich. It has bailed out large companies. On the main its ignored the needs of the many over the few.

What the virus does from here is sadly obvious.
What state 80% of people in the USA are in right now actually is worse than at any period since USA was formed. Worse than even the depression for a simple reason, CV19 is there as well. Similar sorts of unemployment, all resources and assets depleted and so on.

The stock market DOES actually represent the economy. Not to agree with Trump, but its business's and they sell things and without people, customers, all be it peasants, those outside the top 20%, these business's even good ones cease to function. Not totally, but, seriously so.

People without money, all reserves gone, terrified in say 40% of the case for their life and health. Not just the old, many young, many have some disease despite being 40 that puts them or a loved one at risk. For others, drinking coolant or bleach, served by Trump will run around and think they are immune. Possibly they are, others not so lucky are not.

Whilst we hope for a vaccine we dont know. We dont know if your even immune to getting it again, because its new. It appears to again have mutated and hitting some very young people. Oh its bliss !!

Any and all economies are being hit. USA just I suspect ended relationships with China and possibly with many others via Trumps recent tangents over the F35 plane. China is about to declare USA and its products as totally unreliable and actually with cause. Its already banned non Chinese hardware and software beyond 2024, yet we have the NASDAQ on the main ignoring this ?

really ? It is off its highs, but, well ... competing with a nation that clearly is ahead of USA and its chips via recent ones from Huwaie and Alibaba along with 3 years behind 5G on the former and makes things that cost 50% ...

Its sad and amusing to watch. Sad for the following.

Watch it ... not being reported in the USA by mainstream media the massive food lines. Not just the poor, the food banks are being swamped by middle class people dropped on their head and abandoned by their goverment totally. A goverment who rushed and bailed out big companies, even oil companies in 16 days and now 6 weeks latter many on these food lines have either not got a cent or had their claims rejected and sent back to work.

The virus numbers for yesterday 27,000 new USA infections and now with close to 3 hours to go another likely 27,000 infections identified. Of course many times that NOT identified and back to work. NOW !!

Amazing ... sickening. Disgusting. And all on display.



I hope you watched it.
If already prior to that there were 30 million in trouble ... now there are 100 million in the USA without food security and in dire straights.

Lets rally !!

Not anti USA, as I am pains to point out I like and love some yanks and lived there for many years.

This is disgusting and horrendous where USA is now in 2020. Lets send them back to work in a pandemic and ignore and downplay the virus, along with economically starve literally people back to work.

Sigh .. I await Ducs reply ... for some amusement value as to who he is verses my hunch.

It makes a mockery of their under 4% unemployment stats that Trump crows about, but some know that you only have to do 1 hour of work a week (or is it a month ?) to be off the unemployment stats.

Their underemployment rate must be staggering to have so many relying on handouts.

 

[kahuna1]

Trump being the leader and can fix it all but he chooses not too. Will the people of the USA be dumb enough to vote this clown back in? Surely not?

With extreme regret, I think its likely. As a resident for many years and still having many friends there, its a cult. USA itself and its exceptionalism is even more so.

A bubble where the media without a BBC or ABC or any free media of much substance, the news is either one version of another. I would have thought if say we had 100 million or 30% of our population literally needing to go beg for food it would cause every and all people to take action. Not idiots with guns but the public outcry would be massive. If however its not on the news, or its not happening to you, who cares ?

The narrative there, not just Fox news is get back to work and a positive if not delusional one. Trump yet again overnight touted the benifits of the Malaria drug which FAILED so far 5 clinical trials and was dangerous. That it does more harm than good is contained in these clinical scientific trials.

For many, in the USA, my friends, some believe every single word. Inside their bubble despite NY state being the most infected puss pot on the planet and I live there, the Governor is seen as doing a good job. He did not act early, shut down early, gather supplies and so on. But compared to Trump and his uttering s, he appears at least sane. HE is a Democrat and Governors like State premiers here can act alone. In the USA they actually have far more power than ours via various things. Amazingly most are now slashing healthcare spending and one state which has a rainy day fund Ohio I think is not spending it and instead slashing education spending along with healthcare and at the same time sending people back to work.

To anyone outside this Bubble ... in the USA we watch with horror at USA and UK who is at least now trying and their results. As for Sweden in 21 days it will pass Italy with infection rates per million. Not Spain yet, but it will get there.

NO negative words against the Republican party or USA will be accepted. Your a commie or leftist or Democrat. I add, they are no better than the other side, just less brazen. Trumps core support of racist white men, gun nuts, old people, religious anti gay anti abortion ... will never change.

Biden, well, is pathetic and an old 75 years he is.

I would hope for change but Trump is running a reality show.
For the vaccine he ran a shark tank event and they got 3 minutes to present and make their promises and he decided, not a doctor or virologist. Moderna for example got 484 Million USD to develop its vaccine. Its never made a drug, never made a vaccine. Its NOVEL ... and NEW approach may work, it may not, we dont even know at this stage if your immune if you get it. IT appears, being a new virus if you get it seriously you do have antibodies after 2 weeks. Since its 6 months old, we only know at this stage LIKELY your immune with full blown CV19 you are likely immune for 2 weeks which is when they were tested for the antibodies. If you dont have it seriously ... it appears NO immunity or at best very limited.

Trump today just touted a vaccine in massive numbers by January 2021. Really ? It is and was taken as gospel much like his proclaiming it would go away at 15 cases ...

I have hopes for a vaccine, but well founded fears which experts have expressed about IF .... IF one is possible. WHO World health all week has been saying this. USA out of 200 nations is NO longer supporting WHO ... all 199 others ARE. Pooling and sharing research and even development and bugger the profits !!

This narrative, go back to work its safe in the USA is disgusting. Maybe they can play music as the Nazi's did in their disgusting acts from WW2 as the people were led into the showers.

My best estimate, is 128k deaths by June 2020 and 250k minimum by end of 2020 in the USA. I would add 20 other people who are world class computer projection model builders have a median of 250k. Being honest and given the changes to narrative and actions of some states actually opening as cases rise, the likely number for me is closer to 500 k by end of 2020. That the USA and Trump is clearly already trying to alter the CDC reported number of deaths and lower the reported number when its by experts agreed its much higher and Dr Fauci who now has the gloves off, said its not bloody lower its higher.

Ahhh... sad.

My magic wand is broken to make it all better. I thank the stars we live here. Acted early hard and fast. Germany same thing, it was however hit earlier and harder, yet they have done very will via testing tracing and isolation.

Sadly for Italy hit likely first and France and Spain via social norms of kissing on cheeks the spread rate was, shocking.

I pause to think about those poor yanks, even the Trump devotees and their fate. They are human. They do matter over the stock market. Bailing out oil companies ? all and sundry ? Whilst they starve ?

Yikes

 

[kahuna1]

It makes a mockery of their under 4% unemployment stats that Trump crows about, but some know that you only have to do 1 hour of work a week (or is it a month ?) to be off the unemployment stats.

Their underemployment rate must be staggering to have so many relying on handouts

Yep ... despite the recent gent questioning my economics ... and background which I shared your correct.

USA participation rate is at 40 year lows end of 2019 pre CV19 ... or near that.
job quality index ... 40 year lows ....
Medical costs in reality 3 times our own.

USA last set of numbers the participation rate crashed. Not counted ... if the total workforce you count is smaller. Our did the same ... we fell 2.5% which is an impact of 3.7% on the reported unemployment rate so it was in fact ... all thing being equal .. not 6.2% here but 9.8% plus Job keeper numbers so 15% plus.

USA ... their non farm payroll numbers ... BLS ... each month and how they measure them a joke. Some states have shocking unemployment. It only lasts 12 weeks ... then NO more. No money. Florida and Texas the worst from memory and Georgia not good either. Once they stop paying you, you can still get counted but waiting for over 2 hours to get served, not to get any help or payment ... just to get counted ?

Nope.

On the Job quality index and some of Trumps mutterings about Latino employment and African American. I would point out their jobs pay 60% of white ones. Stating that say record numbers of African Americans are employed is correct. So too has the population grown !! Of course there are more employed and so too Latinos which have doubled population size since 1980.


I looked a few years ago at this issue in detail. There were at the time around 17 million jobs verses the GFC lows. Yes some were high paying ones. Growth in say Web jobs and computer stuff over and above the underlying growth of the USA economy. Lots of manufacturing jobs lost, quite well paying and a lot of office higher paying jobs lost and replaced with, much lower paying paper shuffling ones.

So the highest sectors to gain or recover jobs post GFC ? Drum roll .....
Food and Beverage low paying jobs. A lot $3.40 an hour plus tips. Many casual, so if you have 3 of them ... you have a job. About 3 million there ... so 20% ..

Next .... another drum roll .. Human Robot jobs. Amazon type warehousing jobs rose 3 million so another 20%. Their pay whilst $15 an hour ... 32k a year, no sick leave one weeks paid holiday ... or if your sick. 28k after tax and Social security. Minus $40 a week for your medial insurance ... so 26k in hand. Your medical insurance needs the first 3k paid by you ... how generous of Bezos then $1,500 co pay .... where you pay half. With a family, a mere visit to the doctor there $600- or an emergency room the drip and visit is $2,000. So with kids, .... your left ... with ... 22k for food, car, rent

Next ? Medical jobs, wiping old peoples bums and assisting them. Not nursing homes but aid and rehab after an op and the total of these jobs post GFC was close to 5 million in various forms. All low paying.
That took it to 70% of them. then we had UBER and gig things leaving 20% quite decent jobs but the rest ... were not good.

Hence why so many need food stamps. Why so many have no medical insurance and rely upon Medicaid in the USA which is shocking. Worst than shocking, car crash ... yep they fix you but in 20 states NO rehab when you loose your legs, no wheelchair. do they dump them on the street ?

Anyhow ... sad ... where both parties and not to rag on Trump alone. where the USA is.

This link to job quality index. Apologies if I am a bit out of date verses the links data.

https://www.jobqualityindex.com/

I do have many issues with this index. It does NOT take into account healthcare costs and the absolute need of you have a family to have medical insurance. Low paid jobs and Amazon benifits as I covered are accurate, Amazon does pay SOME of the medical insurance but ... not all. The lowly paid person needs to pay 2k out of net wages then 3 k as the deductible prior to the insurance paying a cent then $1.500 in co pays so . .... 6.5k out of 28k after tax and I forgot ... Pharmacy stuff is partially covered but another $500.. which at USA prices is done easily. SO 21k is the NET ...

This index on job quality is helpful, but ignores, totally this NOT covered and massively increased insurance.

To buy it if self employed, same 3k deductible and then 1.5k co payment and say $500 ... you pay for the fist drugs you need would be.... and is around $8k policy. So an 8k policy and you get to pay 5k more. Insane doesn't cover this. Then you get to play with the insurer and hidden costs, no that doctor in our hospital is not covered $800 out of pocket ... you need treatment ... your insurer suggests sugar pills instead of treatment and refuses to pay.

This is USA employment and medical in 2020 PRE CV19.

Quick take its near or at index lows.
USA healthcare spending officially now at 20% of GDP for awful cover.
In 1980 it was 6% of GDP.
It had a weighting on CPI of 6% in 1980 ,,, and a mere 7% in 2020.

Since this index did not start till long after that and without researching appears NOT to take this into any account, post 1990 the healthcare costs and what is NO longer included and covered has at least tripled. Making lower paid jobs ... even worse than this index is showing.

Paying the peasants with wooden tokens and CPI gains which, well dont cover the actual CPI at all. Same for how they measure rent in the CPI and house prices along with many other things. If your pay is increased at CPI if your lucky and its missing 1% more than the usual 1% gap ... over time ... your paid wooden tokens.

Better run.

Was hoping my play mate Ralph would come back about his latest M1 theories and answer my suspicions as to his location and profession. It seems cruel but it will be amusing his response or if he does. I am very curious. Ralph ? Ralllpph ? where are you ?

 

[ducati916]

1. Hi Bert,
Thanks for your opinion.
Three questions, since I am fascinated.
I take it you are or were a lawyer or with similar training ?
Obviously still not a full time one, but via your responses ....
Second question is another suspicion that you live in America ?
third is ....
Do you normally speak another language ? Just suspect via your writing style and form possibly your not American born but live there ?
I mean no offense, just, wondering.



2. QE or expansion of money supply, where we agree I suspect to disagree about printing money is an aside.

3. Of course asset buying expands the overall volume of money out there.
I already know your thoughts on this issue without asking I suspect.

4. We would both agree via buying the bonds, any bonds nowadays, not just treasuries its good for stocks.
Disagree about the rest more than likely.

5. I would also point out, the big macro picture, your missing via your beliefs. Not that I can ever prove it, because we would be talking about the future. You seem like a day trader. Picking pennies up in front of a stream roller. Obviously a technical one, but with an interest in the other side, macro and economics.

6. Amusing, we have not a thing in common. I do look at charts, but only after going via a top down look at things.

7. I have already shared whom and accurately what I am. Irrelevant in this discussion, and I am not asking you to reveal anything other than 3 hunches. In trade I will reveal, how I can prove whom I am, Not that it matters.

8. So my 3 questions ? Just interested.

9. One of yours questions answered ... Would you send drivel like this to your clients?

10. I dont have clients as such. My income and wealth are not tied to servicing others.
I passed the point of even requiring that many years ago. Actually I never was that end of the business as I said. You seem to doubt that, but I never have needed to serve clients, or their needs, since I started in 1982. Again if you answer my fascination on 3 questions, I will prove it.

1. Irrelevant to the issue(s) under discussion.

2. My position (should) be clear: a government that runs as a Fiscal Policy, deficit spending, will have to acquire increased cash holdings. This can be done through (a) borrowing (debt) or (b) issuing debt and monetising that debt.

3. Correct. However if you accept this point, it is a small step to Mr Sadjii's original premise.

4. Correct.

5. Irrelevant.

6. Irrelevant.

7. Uninterested.

8 - 10. Probably just as well.

jog on
duc