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AEV - Avenira Limited

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Re: MAK - Minemakers


Not much is certain in this life kennas Death, taxes (well for most ), but also rising population and hence rising demand for food. Given that this tends to go hand in hand with increasing pressure on agricultural land and decreasing amounts of it as more is taken up housing the masses, one would imagine that there is a reasonable case for RP prices to head up in the longer term.

Whether that is next year though???
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Adam A said:
Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010
Click to expand...
Yes I see that now. I should know not to mention stocks in a downtrend too. It was probably the mountain in the distance that got me unnecessarily excited.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Its so quiet here and even after yesterdays announcement

and a 19.5% gain today in MAK's price

and International DAP prices have risen 15% so far this month.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Dont want to jinx it

Plenty of volume today and yesterdays ann re first RP mined is great news

Im happy that MAK management have achieved this goal roughly within their stated time frame.

Would like to see this consolidate at this price, seen it drop back before

Great to see the price rise and good luck to all holders
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome! I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Did they state anywhere long term contract prices they have locked in, an the updated Opex numbers?



Or, is this just testing for potential offtake partners?

As far as I can recall, Opex, back in 07, was about $150 tn, for the trucking option.

How's RP looking?
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers


MAK has bad management i think, thus always depressed shareprice

PER SHARE STATISTICS
6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09
Sales($) -- -- -- --
Cash Flow(cents) -- -3.6 -8.0 -11.4
Earnings(cents) -- -4.4 -4.8 -15.

 
Re: MAK - Minemakers


I've been watching Mak the last month or so with interest. ( Increasing volume with some large buys lately with a sp of 50c )
Phosphate imo is going to keep rising as more & more demand for it returns.
Farmers in the past haven't been using phosphate ect because of lack of funds with the GFC and in order for a successful crop they need to replace the nutrients they've been taking out of the ground. True?

It would be nice if it returned anywhere near it's high of $2.80 two years ago.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers


Am i the only one on ASF holding MAK?
Noone else wanting to capitalize on this company?
Is this classed as ramping?
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Nope your not a lone I have a considerable holding of Minemakers just waiting for their time to come
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK having a nice run this morning

Up 7.5% with good volume (4.7mill) Has been strong the past few mornings,then tends to drop of towards close,hopefully this run will continue

Ive got a few oppies for a punt as well as my long term shares

Good luck
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers


Quite the opposite.
I also was hoping for the run to continue but sadly was mistaken.
Otherwise i would have sold and bought back in.
Where did i put that cyrstal ball?
Nevermind only a matter of time for it to head back to whence it came.
First sample shipment off to India today.
That might start to swing it back into positive territory.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...

Does anyone have any insight on this?
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

ctp6360 said:
Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...

Does anyone have any insight on this?
Click to expand...
Yeah no details is bizaar and unlike MAK. They usually throw in a one liner to at least give a hint. I don't think it's company related, just to Wonarah, so wouldn't be capital raisings or takeovers etc. From the last quarterly they said a resource upgrade was due for Feb and DSO FS in first quarter....
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well, they're calling it a resource update not upgrade. Whatever.


This bit seems to be very good news to me. DSO was always the key to getting this operation up and running at an economical (profitable) rate and beneficiation was not the first step.

Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?

However, they have had to downgrade the low grade material, which look untidy:

11% Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.

Still trading sideways, sideways, sideways.

Will they mine????
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?
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The last figure I saw for RP was US$97.5/tonne for January, up from US$90 in December. It bottomed at US$90 for 6 months with this move the first sign of price improvement.
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EX...165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html


kennas said:
11% Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.
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That figure is of 1117Mt @ 11% P2O5 is based on a 0% P2O5 cutoff, so essentially is includes every skerrick of P2O5. It's called a global or total resource and simply gives a total inventory of contained P2O5. The global resource is not optimised for mining and is meaningless as far as being able to predict what will be produced, though it is a number that companies and punters love to wave about.

Much more relevant are the resources generated with cut-offs. The estimation at a cut-off of 10% P2O5 contains 485Mt @ 18% P2O5 which is much more meaningful. The 485Mt volume contains the higher grade DSO calculated tonnage. Though once the DSO tonnage is removed in excess of 400Mt (subject to modelling of reserves) of ore that can be benificiated remains. So if prices improve to where beneficiation is viable they will have a lot of ore to play with.

The more DSO they can identify the better and the DSO will be crucial to get MAK off the ground as a producer. While they have announced a good tonnage of DSO some of the intersections are thin (1-2m) and deep (~40m) and these will not likely be economic by themselves. MAK needs most of the DSO ore to be hosted in the 5-10m intersections at the current depths of 30-40m for mining to be most viable.

(Note: resource figures are based solely on geological continuity and do not consider any mining costs. The calculation of reserves is required to determine what is economic to mine and these figures will vary based on RP price)
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Absolutely, but RP needs to be somewhat above Opex for them to get anywhere near mining. You can't start an operation when your product is worth half your Opex, and MAK (and many other RP hopefulls) are taking a bet that fertaliser prices are going to continue back up well above historical trends. The risk is that RP is in abundance in several places and current producers may be able to turn the tap on as required and keep the price at a level to keep new producers out of the game. Is this likely? Or, is MAK a certainty to mine? I've been on the fence on this for some time.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades? I was just thinking it must be cheaper for the high grade DSO near surface stuff musn't it? And that's the stuff that, as has been mentioned, will get MAK off the ground as a producer while, hopefully, the RP price moves up.

Just thinking

Gotta be somewhat similar to IO producers doesn't it - need good grade DSO to startup and get cash to then get lower grade up to scratch?
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

jonojpsg said:
Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades?
Click to expand...
Without myself going back to the initial FS in regard to the trucking solution for DSO to TC and rail to Darwin, and onto the wharf (yet to be built) and a ship to .... wherever, it was $150 a ton. That was the initial DSO operation and the profit was going to be used to slap together a beneficiation plant and rail line for the 'long term' operation, for the lower grade stuff.

All hinges on what price they can get for RP contracts.

And, what the final Opex for the cheap trucking option is.

As a related muse, I do remember AD saying some time ago that he was not seeking a lock in of forward sales of RP or off-take agreements (unlike Legend) as he was confident RP would remain high.

And, I also guess that the $150 Opex for the cheap trucking option will blow out, as all initial forecasts do.

Now, having said that, if people like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are right, agri commods are going to go through the roof in the next several years, so this phase of the cycle may be the perfect buying opportunity. If they are right... I have no idea.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...
 
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