AEV - Avenira Limited

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

gone into a trading halt this morning, during the end of the spp.
hope it doesnt last long. isn't this a bit odd?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

gone into a trading halt this morning, during the end of the spp.
hope it doesnt last long. isn't this a bit odd?

I thought they stated that it was due to something in Namibia.

Not giving any clue to it is a bit weird.

They could have said resources, or JV partner, or something, but nada.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I thought they stated that it was due to something in Namibia.

Not giving any clue to it is a bit weird.

They could have said resources, or JV partner, or something, but nada.

STB also halted at the same time "in respect to granting of new exploration ground".

Looks like STB will be getting some of MAKs tenements in Namibia. Not sure if i like these companies being intertwined and just passing things back and forth between each other and not actually doing anything...

 

[berbouy]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

hi prawn -kennas- shag-i saw something on the asx website that made mention of an updated resource estimate, and something to do with bon? new to this so may be worth having a look at the announcement on asx-namibia was mentioned- cheers

 

[enigmatic]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK do seem to be quiet keen on this marine phosphate evaluation and development in offshore Namibia which Bonaparte had a 42.5% Share in.

They have recently been buying up UNION RESOURCES LTD which also hold a 42.5% share in the marine Namibia deposit.

MAK now have a 14.9% Ownership of UNION interesting bit of consolidation in the Phosphate Juniors..

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

note that there will most likely be a sulphuric acid plant there too, for the u extraction
thus cheaper/more usable superphosphate.

 

[wtang89]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?

I am a long time MAK watcher and investor (first bought in Feb 07), but have been completely out for about a year. I posted a chart similar to this some time ago which shows a clear trading range, which can be traded, but for longer term buy and hope investing is not worth being involved in, imo, until that 75 ish line is broken.

Fundamentally, if RP prices go above $200 ish, then this might mine. If RP stays around $150, then it will not. RP price setting is so opaque and controlled by Morocco that no one can say what price this **** will be at in the next year, or 10. RP is an abundant substance, like uranium, it's just a matter of law, supply and demand. I read an article that said Morocco had enough RP for 50 years (or something) world supply a while ago, but they wouldn't up production to control prices.

Please do your own search on RP supply/demend as you can not believe anyone's opinions on it, especially MAK's nor mine.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hey, since noone has posted on this stock for a while i guess i will.
MAk has been on the decline recently despite growth in commodity prices and the general market. There has been no negative announcements yet the SP of MAk has been steadily declining as well as low volumes? anyone have any ideas as to why?

people/punters offloading the rediculously structured spp
like i got 30k's worth, plus oppies
i have hope for phospate prices
ring ravensdown in nz for sense of future prices
others still developing worse p deposits.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

An update out on Wonarah.

Doesn't read very pretty to me compared to their other rampish remarks.

This last one is confusing to me:

RAILWAY STUDY

Australian Transport and Energy Corridor (“ATEC”) advised of its first-pass estimates of capital and operating costs for a rail link from mine site to Tennant Creek. The estimates are on a commercial-in-confidence basis. As the ability to raise the necessary construction capital will be contingent upon firm, large and long-term off-take agreements with customers, further work on the railway study will be deferred until the world fertilizer feedstock markets improve.


Why can't they provide the numbers?

Because it makes it look unfeasable?

They've been quite happy to put up rough numbers to this point.



Stock sitting down in the bottom part of the sideways zone established over the past year. Not too much different to the last chart I put up.

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: MAK - Minemakers



Hi folks,

MAK ..... hopefully this sleeping beauty will get the kiss of life, later this week,
as 2 positive time cycles slot into place, around 02102009 .....

have a great week

paul



=====

 

[exgeo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

From Today's Australian:

Reap a harvest from patience PURE SPECULATION:
Robin Bromby | October 26, 2009

FIRST, some words that normally send shivers down the spine of your average resources share buyer: think long term. Apologies if, by uttering that ugly concept, we've given anyone a nasty turn over their morning soy or skinny lattes.

The UN now puts the number of people who don't get enough to eat at 1.02 billion. At the same time, prices of the two fertiliser feedstocks -- potash and phosphate -- are in the basement. Last week Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, the world's biggest miner of that mineral, posted an 80 per cent profit fall.

Nearly half the company's mining capacity is lying idle. One of Russia's largest potash producers is working at about 60 per cent capacity.

Meantime, we're seeing increasingly dire warnings about food shortages around the world. This will be worsened by the fact that farmers in the developed world -- the US particularly -- have been cutting back on fertiliser use because of financial problems and the fact that they can't borrow money to buy it. The bottom line is that there is no way that world food production can be lifted without chemical fertilisers.

Paul Deane, rural economist for ANZ Bank, says in his latest fertiliser report that global markets for the product have been in disarray for a year. India is the only country consuming potash at anywhere near the levels of last year and has just negotiated a new import price more than 20 per cent lower than its 2008-09 contracts. He notes that China is likely to be able get a big price drop for its new import contracts.

(Continued at link below)

More: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,26257904-5005200,00.html

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I do wonder whether fertiliser prices recover back to a point that will make Wonarah economical. I don't think they have changed their $150 Opex guestimate for trucking the stuff to TC, and what if RP stays low or even back to the old $50 mark? Morocco has about 20000 years worth of the stuff just sitting there waiting to be dug up. Doesn't matter what demand is, they have the supply. The rise to $450 was bubble and trouble in retrospect. I think MAK is in deep do-do, and could end up in moth balls.

 

[Ken]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas,

One thing to remember is that morocco might be selling phosphate at 100 bux a tonne, but shipping contracts will be higher than MAK's will be youd think.

Phosphate not traded daily on spot market.. The way i am reading the industry is that it is all contract based. So if MAK can find a buyer, than can sell their phosphate for whatever price they can.

market cap still double cash reserves... so maybe investors still hold some form of hope..

but i agree blue sky is not there to get excited about! looks to be heading below 36 cents... and further south this week...

 

[THE BUZZ]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Based on 2days rise , think your on the money there Ken, looks like yesterdays announcements and positive media re ipl may have filtered down ??

 

[exgeo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Might also just be following the majors in the Potash world. Potash of Sasaktchewan (POT.TO) have recently started turning up. The charts of MAK and POT overlay reasonably well, with the exception so far of the recent turnup in POT.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Might also just be following the majors in the Potash world. Potash of Sasaktchewan (POT.TO) have recently started turning up. The charts of MAK and POT overlay reasonably well, with the exception so far of the recent turnup in POT.

SEC filings show Soros topped up hit POT holdings. Buying would probably be instos chasing that (then selling to retail )

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

On the 17th last week an announcement updating MAK progress was issued and following are some of the highlights. Interesting to note a director sold a small parcel on the same day. They come up on a scan initially and as per a majority of higher volume days has come off a bit since as per charts. (up to last friday)

A major milestone will be attained on Monday, 23 November, when the Wonarah Environmental Impact Statement goes on public exhibition and is lodged with the Northern Territory Government for its consideration.

MARKETING

India is the largest importer of rock phosphate and positive meetings were held with major fertiliser manufacturers there earlier this month. High level follow-up meetings are scheduled for early December. Overall markets and prices remain weak but the industry expects them to rebound. Difficult harvesting conditions in North America, and poor weather in India and Pakistan are causing current concern about crop yields and grain prices have risen strongly recently. The world has been under-fertilising since the bubble in prices last year and will have to increase application rates so as to maintain optimum nutrient levels and maximise yields. Wonarah is on track to be in production in mid 2011 to sell into this anticipated demand
increase cycle.

I think the August volume spike is a logarithmic scale thingy and the reason why it looks higher on the wide angle shot.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010

How can they be on track for production when RP is going cheaper than the feasability study Opex?

They are taking a bet that the fertiliser cycle will rebound about next year so they can actually turn a profit. Remember, their Opex is well above historical prices and they've assumed the mid bubble price will return. This is like a uranium company going into production assuming that U is going to recover back to bubble prices.

Can they be so certain?