AEV - Avenira Limited

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Bad day today for MAK shares and holders
Down to a two year low today, at one stage hit 0.20c

Delay on the DSO feasability study looks to be on the cards (imho)

The last quarterly used the excuse of the carbon tax as one of the reasons for the delay,the super tax will be used this time (imho)

Andrew Drummond has stated in the past that mak was a goer at lower RP prices,its obvious that the market thinks this is not the case

What happens next?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Bad day today for MAK shares and holders
Down to a two year low today, at one stage hit 0.20c

Delay on the DSO feasability study looks to be on the cards (imho)

The last quarterly used the excuse of the carbon tax as one of the reasons for the delay,the super tax will be used this time (imho)

Andrew Drummond has stated in the past that mak was a goer at lower RP prices,its obvious that the market thinks this is not the case

What happens next?

What a disaster intra day. Panic has certainly set in.

As I've been saying for some time, they needed RP to be well above $150 tn long term, which was THE risk.

While the world will need to eat in the future and farmers apparantly have underspent on crops the past 2 years, RP is so abundant, that demend will be met. The bubble, looks to have been a bubble, and I can't see how it will recover any time soon to levels that taking this into DFS is a waste of time.

I think Wonarah will be mothballed.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So on to the Namibia project lol
and if that doesnt work out, on to the Pacifico Peru project

Then off to Monia in tassy and then back up to the NT for port keats salt project (weather permitting of cause)

Scatterd with a few OS trips should be enough to keep management and the directors employed

You live and you learn lol

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

What a disaster intra day. Panic has certainly set in.

As I've been saying for some time, they needed RP to be well above $150 tn long term, which was THE risk.

While the world will need to eat in the future and farmers apparantly have underspent on crops the past 2 years, RP is so abundant, that demend will be met. The bubble, looks to have been a bubble, and I can't see how it will recover any time soon to levels that taking this into DFS is a waste of time.

I think Wonarah will be mothballed.

yes, i think if i was the king of morocco i'd keep prices low for a while to keep these fellas quiet n kill them off for a few years. nothing like a massive supply and credit crisis....
maybe ravensdown could pick up the detris once its all collapsed, as they are moving into the aussie supply market with no npk resources of their own.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK completely on the ropes. Looks like a duck. Dead.

I wonder how much the Superduper Profit Tax (SPT) has slugged it.

You know something's serious when it gets its own acronym.

Like the GFC. Or GEC.

What a disasterous chart.



Still doubled your money if you bought in 07 I suppose.

 

[THE BUZZ]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Going to be hard to recover to previous highs in the near future , low RokPhosphate prices, super taxes, bigger miners will feel the pinch, so how will MAK be viable??? still I hold allbeit a reduced number for now.,.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK need to halt any further feasibility work on Wonarah, sack all their management team in place sucking up massive salaries, and wait out the GFC, imo. They should just sit on their $30m or buy a gold mine with it.

Just having a gander at their 27 April investor presentation and came across this gem on page 5:

"Feasibility cost estimate in next 2 - 3 weeks."

Well, where the hell is it? Has someone else seen it?

Why isn't it out? Where's the update on the delay? They are very quick to get out the good information, but when something is a miss, no one's home.

I think this Opex study is going to turn their RP dreams into fertiliser.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Moment of truth for MAK today with the release of the FS that supposed to include costs. Was reported in the paper this am that it supposed to be positive. I just can't see how it could be with opex likely to be well above current RP prices. Or maybe they leave out the opex as being 'confidential' again.

 

[exgeo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hoperating costs of A$122/t and Cap. costs of A$23/t for the direct shipping ore, 5 year mine life.

Drilling programme aims to prove up more resources to extend life to 10 years which gives better financial outcome of A$121/t and A$8/t (both FOB Darwin).

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I am very surprised that the Opex came in under $150 after their previous announcements. I was expecting well over $150 in fact. Wrong.

However, I can not understand how a FS can be done based on a price of the commodity above the current price and well above long term trend. They are making a massive assumption that long term demand will outstrip supply, driving prices higher, as there is crap loads of potential supply.

Isn't long term average about $40 a tn?



Also confused as to the base case plan. They intend to make about a $100m profit over x years, but the Capex is $220m or something. So, the Capex comes from where? Just a share issue, or debt? If it's a share issue, incredible dilution. If it's debt, interest. It doesn't seem to have been covered. Or was it?

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I am very surprised that the Opex came in under $150 after their previous announcements. I was expecting well over $150 in fact. Wrong.

Bit more than my estimate...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=532909

However, I can not understand how a FS can be done based on a price of the commodity above the current price and well above long term trend. They are making a massive assumption that long term demand will outstrip supply, driving prices higher, as there is crap loads of potential supply.

Er? You don't see that costs < revenue? Ergo, price > cost?

Isn't long term average about $40 a tn?

Possibly. I wonder what long-term gold prices are...

Also confused as to the base case plan. They intend to make about a $100m profit over x years, but the Capex is $220m or something. So, the Capex comes from where? Just a share issue, or debt? If it's a share issue, incredible dilution. If it's debt, interest. It doesn't seem to have been covered. Or was it?

You are correct.

A JV partner, and a capital raising, would be my guess.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trading Halt pending ann regarding development of Wonarah.

Mothballs?

Hope I'm surprised and it's a goer.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trading Halt pending ann regarding development of Wonarah.

Mothballs?

Hope I'm surprised and it's a goer.

Yeah, wondered what you'd have to say about this one kennas

Seems unlikely that it could be a goer, although maybe if they just go for the high grade stuff they could generate some cashflow, ala high grade gold/IO??

Given that all they do is dig it up and ship it out?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

No mothballs just yet, just selling up to half the company by the look.

Up to 50% shares on issue to Verte.

HUH?

The Strategic Investors to provide equity funding (“Equity Funding”) to Minemakers by the subscription for new shares in Minemakers at a substantial premium to the current share price and representing, on completion, up to 50% of all issued shares at a time when arrangements for the EPC Funding are finalised.

They fail to give a price that they're selling the shares for which is curious. Just that its at a 'substantial premium'. Maybe it is.

I suppose it's one way to get funding.

But they are going to use 75% of profit to repay the loan.

Funding not to be finalised until 2Q 2011. I've got no idea, but they were planning on mining in Q4 2011 I thought.

 

[jancha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yeah, wondered what you'd have to say about this one kennas

Seems unlikely that it could be a goer, although maybe if they just go for the high grade stuff they could generate some cashflow, ala high grade gold/IO??

Given that all they do is dig it up and ship it out?

Some big buyers out there today.
One in particular for over a mil.
Any ideas as to why the sudden urge of interest?

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not sure if this is why the buying has been good today but I had noticed that the corn futures had been going up and corn is one of the biggest users of Phosphate.

 

[YELNATS]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not sure if this is why the buying has been good today but I had noticed that the corn futures had been going up and corn is one of the biggest users of Phosphate.

Looks like world prices for all grains is on the rise, not only corn. Maybe this has something to do with the recent interest in MAK.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7940998

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Strong day for MAK today
Looking forward to the next RP price update

2.8million shares changing hands and a 4% increase

One to watch imho if further bad news his the market re grain supplies

 

[dandyjac]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK having a good day out today on the back of BHP offer for potash, good to see a nice little rise

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK having a good day out today on the back of BHP offer for potash, good to see a nice little rise

Yep, some good sentiment for them. But RP isn't Potash, and Wonarah is barely feasable at current prices, which are on the dark side of opaque at best. Would really like to see some clarity in the market and RP prices and a gradual uptrend to over $160 ish and a steady state before even thinking that they can go to mining with any confidence. The world does need to eat and farmers have undersh!t their crops by the sounds so it will catch up one day. Maybe.

=DJ UPDATE: BHP's Bid For Potash Corp Pulls Focus To Fertilizer, Food, Farms
18/08/2010 05:14PM AEST

By Ray Brindal

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP) US$38.6 billion bid for Canada's Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) underscores increasing corporate interest in farming, food and fertilizer, the executive manager of the Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia, Nick Drew, said Wednesday.

There is a global trend of increasing population and increasing wealth in heavily populated countries like India and China and that means demand for farm products is going to rise, at the same time as the availability of arable land is being squeezed from urbanization and environmental degradation, he said.

"There's going to be quite a crunch coming and agriculture is probably going to become a much more interesting space in the next few years," Drew told Dow Jones Newswires.

Meanwhile, Colonial First State is fielding more interest in agricultural and soft commodities investment driven initially by commodity price spikes, such as recent months for wheat, but also by recent corporate activity, said portfolio manager Skye Macpherson.