AEV - Avenira Limited

[jancha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...

So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.

jancha, what's your analysis tell you of long term RP prices? What price 2011 and beyond?

It's a pretty murky area imo, but anyone can take a stab at long term prices with a little guestimatation/plucking I suppose. One of the real long term agri bulls is Jim Rogers and he can't put a figure on what price any commodity will be in the future, he says there's too many unknown unknowns. He does always say 'much higher' though. I'm not sure if he states that specifically for RP though. The Morocco FOB price setting is so opaque who knows what it'll be next week let alone next year.

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So who's nearly everyone & what qualifications do they have?
I'll be buying more if they drop down any further.

When RP was $90ish according to the World Bank, I believe MAK said their OPEX would be less than the current RP price...

If you assume the pink data sheet is, say, 10% underpriced (so, really, $99).... that would give Opex of circa $100...

Also, "I also guess that the $150 Opex for the cheap trucking option".
It is my belief that it was for the 'more expensive' trucking option... and, if a railway is built (which it may/may not be), then that Opex will be SIGNIFICANTLY reduced.

As to 'everyone' and 'their qualifactions'
my 'mate' (no qualifications)
and
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1100083&msgno=5023231#5023231 (is one bad example from HC; there are certainly more if you search), and many other posters on HC...

On the contrary, you are the first person who believes the $150 figure...that I have heard.

Is it therefore set in stone that OpEx will be <$125? Certainly not! I just expect an OpEx of <$125 for the DSO... whilst noting that I may very well be wrong.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The MAK chart seems to be gathering some Momentum ATM
Hopefully the Resistance at 0.46 will be taken out soon?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I've had a look back through statements by MAK in regard to Opex, and have these:

April 08 Presentation - Opex $100 tn
Nov 08 Presentation - 'Capex and Opex to be released Mid Dec'
Feb 09 Presentation -

Operating Costs
• AU$150/t delivered to ship’s hold in Darwin (FOB)
• Say, ± US$100/t FOB
− Split Mining $28/t
Processing $16/t
Freight $98/t
Site Administration $8/t
TOTAL $150/t

November 09 Presentation -

Operating Cost
"Commercially confidential, but competitive"

So, who knows then.

 

[exgeo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Have read over the last month or so of two large mining co's pushing the button on new Phosphate developments. One was BHP, the other was Anglo or Vale I think. You could take this one of two ways; the major's analysis leads them to think there will be a shortfall in supply; the second is that there will be more new supply to compete with MAK. I hold (I'm a straw-hats-in-winter kind of investor).

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

It looks as if someone is thinking along the lines of a pick up in the fertilizer market.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...pdate--yara-buy-terra--bln-expand-1232184154/

 

[tfrjr]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I am trying to decide which is a better investment: LDGI (Legend) or MAK. Can anyone offer any suggestions/opinions. Thanks.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK has very important news due in the next few weeks/months,so imho their will be quite substantial movement one way or another!

Im a fan of mak long term,their website has plenty of info.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

We recently discussed the Opex numbers MAK have produced over the past couple of years and I have to say that it's very disappointing that they have managed to start avoiding some actual numbers. What the heck does "Commercially confidential, but competitive" mean anyway. Surely this is price sensative information that the market should be privy too. How can a Capex estimate as part of a Scoping Study not be released? I'm at a loss in this regard. We can only assume that the figure is far above the previous plucks at around $150 tn.

Any other thoughts on this?

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

We recently discussed the Opex numbers MAK have produced over the past couple of years and I have to say that it's very disappointing that they have managed to start avoiding some actual numbers. What the heck does "Commercially confidential, but competitive" mean anyway. Surely this is price sensative information that the market should be privy too. How can a Capex estimate as part of a Scoping Study not be released? I'm at a loss in this regard. We can only assume that the figure is far above the previous plucks at around $150 tn.

Any other thoughts on this?

First and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!

Secondly, understand that RP market is not transparent.

If MAK comes out and says it'll cost us $129.03 to put it on a boat at Darwin..... a buyer maybe more likely to offer, say, $134.03....

If the buyer doesn't know the opex (or, guesses, say, $150)... they may offer, say, $155.

$20/tonne * lots of tonnes = big difference to MAK.

Hell, even if the $ difference is only $1/tonne, that'll definitely add up over the life of the mine!

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

First and foremost, I am at a lost as to explain how your explanation is the only thing that we can "assume"!!!

Secondly, understand that RP market is not transparent.

If MAK comes out and says it'll cost us $129.03 to put it on a boat at Darwin..... a buyer maybe more likely to offer, say, $134.03....

If the buyer doesn't know the opex (or, guesses, say, $150)... they may offer, say, $155.

$20/tonne * lots of tonnes = big difference to MAK.

Hell, even if the $ difference is only $1/tonne, that'll definitely add up over the life of the mine!

Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lol

 

[YELNATS]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Your explanation is that if they tell everyone the Opex then buyers will adjust their contract prices? OK. lol

Maybe not, but I would think it usually not advisable to release costing information into the public domain, where it can be accessed by customers and competitors to the detriment of the business.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Maybe not, but I would think it usually not advisable to release costing information into the public domain, where it can be accessed by customers and competitors to the detriment of the business.

Perhaps I'm off track with what these figures were for. I thought MAK had comissioned some organisation to to conduct a study of a truck and rail option and they were producing a scoping study for them.

Looking back through the anns, I can only find the commissioning of ATEC to complete a rail feasability study:

9 Jan 08:

HIGHLIGHTS

Minemakers and Australian Transport and Energy Corridor Ltd (“ATEC”) have signed an MOU covering a financial study of the economics of a 250km open access standard gauge rail link from the Wonarah Phosphate Project to near Tennant Creek.

ATEC will manage the study. Should the outcome of the study be positive, ATEC would manage the approvals process, financing and construction of the rail link.

The rail link would be expected to lower materially Minemakers’ operating costs and could potentially allow higher production output than the 3Mtpa limit otherwise set by road haulage.

Stage I of the study will be a desktop one and will be completed by 31 May
2009 and will include preliminary financial modelling. Minemakers will
contribute equally with ATEC towards the costs of completion of Stage 1 of
the study subject to Minemakers not being required to pay more than
$30,000.

Subject to Stage 1 outcomes, Stage II is planned to be a more detailed
assessment in preparation for a formal submission to governments for an
exclusive mandate to build and operate the rail link.

But, after this, there seems to be no outcome of this particular feasability study, especially in regard to the financial modelling due 31 May except:

11 June 09 update:

Work on the ATEC JV railway feasibility study continues. Preferred route alternatives have been identified and the first stage of the study should be completed shortly.

But after this, I can't find anything... Can anyone else?

But, back to their operating costs.

From Investor Pres 14 May 09:

Operating Costs

Conservative early estimate of A$150/t with considerable room for reduction
To be optimised in the Feasibility Study – due to be completed September 2009

So, what are they?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK removed from the ASX 300 and XAO today. Bit of a slap in the face. The star has definately fallen slightly off the Emerging Company of the Year, or whatever it was.

Could become totally hamstrung by RP prices never rising back to economic levels for them.

Or, it's just a matter of time before it all goes bubblish again after farmers realise that their crops are going cactus. As long as they can get the money to buy the crap.

 

[earthgas]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Can't figure out why this stock is so lightly traded. With the recovery of economy, farmers need to stock the phosphate rocks, don't they?

The dream for the SP back at $2 plus is dimishing according to last few months performance.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Resource Generation, Minemakers eye African listings

Michael Bennet From: The Australian March 18, 2010 2:25PM

AFRICAN investors are being targeted by juniors Resource Generation and Minemakers, with both planning secondary listings in the region.

AFRICAN investors appear to be on the mind of the junior miners, with Resource Generation and Minemakers laying out plans for secondary listings in South Africa and Namibia respectively, sending their stock prices higher.

Sydney-based Resource Generation said it would apply for a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to encourage South African investors to invest in the company.

Resource hopes the dual listing provides “greater flexibility” to raise finance to develop its Boikarabelo coal mine in the Waterberg region of South Africa it is drilling and claims to hold a saleable reserve of 603 million tonnes of coal.

The listing is expected in the middle of the year, subject to approvals, way ahead of production, which is not expected until at least January 2013.

Nevertheless, local investors liked the play, with Resource’s stock up 7.37 per cent to 51 cents in intraday trade.

Across the Nullarbor, Perth-based phosphate miner Minemakers said it plans to list on the stock exchange of Namibia - where it has marine phosphate projects - in May.

Minemakers played a similar card, saying the listing would more readily enable investors in Namibia and South Africa to take a “significant shareholding” in the company.

Unfortunately local investors were less impressed than with Resource’s move, with its shares up just half a cent to 42c.

Neither miner enlisted the services of advisers, although Resource did enlist the help of South African law firm Bowman Gilfillan.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I think that MAKs plans to produce Phosphate are now virtually dead.

Just had a quick scan through their quarterly out yesterday and read excuse after excuse before getting to this gem..

Industry analysts are predicting that benchmark Moroccan rock will sell for US$150/t FOB later this year and this is being used as the basis for the financial modelling in the Feasibility Study.

As we all know, the previous feasability studies on the DSO operation to truck the ore to TC and rail to Darwin had an opex of about $150/t.

It's unfeasable on a US$150/t FOB even if the AUD tanked back to 70c which is highly unlikely. In fact AUD is more likely going to parity, or even as high as $1.20.

Feasibility Study

The Feasibility Study is now scheduled for delivery to Minemakers by the independent
consultancy, AMC Limited, in early May.

All-up costs of the evaluation of Wonarah from 2008 to completion of the Feasibility Study
will be about $28.4M.

$30m for a feasability study?

HUH?

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I think that MAKs plans to produce Phosphate are now virtually dead.

Just had a quick scan through their quarterly out yesterday and read excuse after excuse before getting to this gem..



As we all know, the previous feasability studies on the DSO operation to truck the ore to TC and rail to Darwin had an opex of about $150/t.

It's unfeasable on a US$150/t FOB even if the AUD tanked back to 70c which is highly unlikely. In fact AUD is more likely going to parity, or even as high as $1.20.


$30m for a feasability study?

HUH?

yes drummund was sunk when he slipped some truth in one announcement in relation to the phosphate prices many months back. he alluded to it all being dependant to on a recovery of phospate prices or such.
it was a definite change of tune anyway.
his phosphate empire looks destined to b undertaken by others, at a later date unless some large co-op like fonterra, ravensdown or such comes to his rescue.
who would keep drummond on tho.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

yes drummund was sunk when he slipped some truth in one announcement in relation to the phosphate prices many months back. he alluded to it all being dependant to on a recovery of phospate prices or such.
it was a definite change of tune anyway.
his phosphate empire looks destined to b undertaken by others, at a later date unless some large co-op like fonterra, ravensdown or such comes to his rescue.
who would keep drummond on tho.

I think the only two ways this will get to production now are if RP takes off again and establishes a base over $200 tn, or if a major with deep pockets and economy of scale takes them over with a long term vision. In the mean time they are just going to churn through cash doing feasability and feasability study.