AEV - Avenira Limited

[jonojpsg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

How can they be on track for production when RP is going cheaper than the feasability study Opex?

They are taking a bet that the fertiliser cycle will rebound about next year so they can actually turn a profit. Remember, their Opex is well above historical prices and they've assumed the mid bubble price will return. This is like a uranium company going into production assuming that U is going to recover back to bubble prices.

Can they be so certain?

Not much is certain in this life kennas Death, taxes (well for most ), but also rising population and hence rising demand for food. Given that this tends to go hand in hand with increasing pressure on agricultural land and decreasing amounts of it as more is taken up housing the masses, one would imagine that there is a reasonable case for RP prices to head up in the longer term.

Whether that is next year though???

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Just for your own records that last qote about being on track to production mid 2011 was a typo. MAK issued a statement correcting it to mid 2010

Yes I see that now. I should know not to mention stocks in a downtrend too. It was probably the mountain in the distance that got me unnecessarily excited.

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Its so quiet here and even after yesterdays announcement

and a 19.5% gain today in MAK's price

and International DAP prices have risen 15% so far this month.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Dont want to jinx it

Plenty of volume today and yesterdays ann re first RP mined is great news

Im happy that MAK management have achieved this goal roughly within their stated time frame.

Would like to see this consolidate at this price, seen it drop back before

Great to see the price rise and good luck to all holders

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome! I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Did they state anywhere long term contract prices they have locked in, an the updated Opex numbers?



Or, is this just testing for potential offtake partners?

As far as I can recall, Opex, back in 07, was about $150 tn, for the trucking option.

How's RP looking?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome! I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)

MAK has bad management i think, thus always depressed shareprice

PER SHARE STATISTICS
6/06 6/07 6/08 6/09
Sales($) -- -- -- --
Cash Flow(cents) -- -3.6 -8.0 -11.4
Earnings(cents) -- -4.4 -4.8 -15.

 

[jancha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Mmm, I saw the jump today and the announcement, both of which were welcome! I would say that things are definitely looking more promising now than a couple of months ago, and if RP prices continue to rise then we should see some readjustment of the SP ( here's hoping)

I've been watching Mak the last month or so with interest. ( Increasing volume with some large buys lately with a sp of 50c )
Phosphate imo is going to keep rising as more & more demand for it returns.
Farmers in the past haven't been using phosphate ect because of lack of funds with the GFC and in order for a successful crop they need to replace the nutrients they've been taking out of the ground. True?

It would be nice if it returned anywhere near it's high of $2.80 two years ago.

 

[jancha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I've been watching Mak the last month or so with interest. ( Increasing volume with some large buys lately with a sp of 50c )
Phosphate imo is going to keep rising as more & more demand for it returns.
Farmers in the past haven't been using phosphate ect because of lack of funds with the GFC and in order for a successful crop they need to replace the nutrients they've been taking out of the ground. True?

It would be nice if it returned anywhere near it's high of $2.80 two years ago.

Am i the only one on ASF holding MAK?
Noone else wanting to capitalize on this company?
Is this classed as ramping?

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Nope your not a lone I have a considerable holding of Minemakers just waiting for their time to come

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK having a nice run this morning

Up 7.5% with good volume (4.7mill) Has been strong the past few mornings,then tends to drop of towards close,hopefully this run will continue

Ive got a few oppies for a punt as well as my long term shares

Good luck

 

[jancha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK having a nice run this morning

Up 7.5% with good volume (4.7mill) Has been strong the past few mornings,then tends to drop of towards close,hopefully this run will continue

Ive got a few oppies for a punt as well as my long term shares

Good luck

Quite the opposite.
I also was hoping for the run to continue but sadly was mistaken.
Otherwise i would have sold and bought back in.
Where did i put that cyrstal ball?
Nevermind only a matter of time for it to head back to whence it came.
First sample shipment off to India today.
That might start to swing it back into positive territory.

 

[ctp6360]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...

Does anyone have any insight on this?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Trading Halt today. They didn't give any details as to why...

Does anyone have any insight on this?

Yeah no details is bizaar and unlike MAK. They usually throw in a one liner to at least give a hint. I don't think it's company related, just to Wonarah, so wouldn't be capital raisings or takeovers etc. From the last quarterly they said a resource upgrade was due for Feb and DSO FS in first quarter....

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well, they're calling it a resource update not upgrade. Whatever.

ASX RELEASE
RESOURCE UPDATE WONARAH ROCK PHOSPHATE PROJECT
10 February 2010

• As a result of the 2009 drilling programme, Minemakers is confident that the objective of locating sufficient high grade phosphate for a 10 year Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) operation has been achieved.

• At a 25% P2O5 cut-off, the Main Zone Deposit has an estimated Indicated plus Inferred resource estimate of 66Mt @ 28% P2O5, while at a 27% P2O5 cut-off, it is 38Mt @ 30% P2O5.

• The high grade areas in the Main Zone Deposit have not been closed off by drilling and mineralisation extends right up to the Barkly Highway – the current northerly limit of the drilling undertaken to date by Minemakers. With only ~20% of the deposit tested and strong mineralisation areas identified, further resource increases are confidently anticipated and underpin Wonarah’s potential multi-decade minelife.

• At the Arruwurra Deposit, the high grade core has an Indicated and Inferred resource at a 15% P2O5 cut-off, estimated at 4.7Mt @ 30.2% P2O5. This is the likely first production area as access to site and exposure of the mineralisation was established during the recent bulk sampling and trial mining programme.

This bit seems to be very good news to me. DSO was always the key to getting this operation up and running at an economical (profitable) rate and beneficiation was not the first step.

Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?

However, they have had to downgrade the low grade material, which look untidy:

ERRONEOUS PREVIOUS RESOURCE ESTIMATE

In the Main Zone at 0% P2O5 cut-off, the consultants had previously advised a resource estimate of 969Mt @ 19% P2O5 in the Indicated and Inferred categories. The resource estimate consultants have now advised that this estimate is erroneous and the new estimate, incorporating all drilling to date, is 1117Mt @ 11% P2O5. An explanation by the consultants accompanies this release as Attachment I.

Whilst it is regrettable that there has been reduction in grade associated with the Main Zone global resource estimate at a 0% P2O5 cut-off, its potential impact upon Minemakers’ proposed DSO mining operations and long term development is considered to be negligible.

11% Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.

Still trading sideways, sideways, sideways.

Will they mine????

 

[derty]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Now, what depth is this DSO, and what will it really cost to get to it and start trucking to TC? They said $150 a ton Opex yonks ago. And how's RP prices looking?

The last figure I saw for RP was US$97.5/tonne for January, up from US$90 in December. It bottomed at US$90 for 6 months with this move the first sign of price improvement.
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EX...165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html

11% Almost half the grade!! eeeeek. That looks pretty damn ordinary to me. Ooops.

That figure is of 1117Mt @ 11% P2O5 is based on a 0% P2O5 cutoff, so essentially is includes every skerrick of P2O5. It's called a global or total resource and simply gives a total inventory of contained P2O5. The global resource is not optimised for mining and is meaningless as far as being able to predict what will be produced, though it is a number that companies and punters love to wave about.

Much more relevant are the resources generated with cut-offs. The estimation at a cut-off of 10% P2O5 contains 485Mt @ 18% P2O5 which is much more meaningful. The 485Mt volume contains the higher grade DSO calculated tonnage. Though once the DSO tonnage is removed in excess of 400Mt (subject to modelling of reserves) of ore that can be benificiated remains. So if prices improve to where beneficiation is viable they will have a lot of ore to play with.

The more DSO they can identify the better and the DSO will be crucial to get MAK off the ground as a producer. While they have announced a good tonnage of DSO some of the intersections are thin (1-2m) and deep (~40m) and these will not likely be economic by themselves. MAK needs most of the DSO ore to be hosted in the 5-10m intersections at the current depths of 30-40m for mining to be most viable.

(Note: resource figures are based solely on geological continuity and do not consider any mining costs. The calculation of reserves is required to determine what is economic to mine and these figures will vary based on RP price)

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The more DSO they can identify the better and the DSO will be crucial to get MAK off the ground as a producer. While they have announced a good tonnage of DSO some of the intersections are thin (1-2m) and deep (~40m) and these will not likely be economic by themselves. MAK needs most of the DSO ore to be hosted in the 5-10m intersections at the current depths of 30-40m for mining to be most viable.

Absolutely, but RP needs to be somewhat above Opex for them to get anywhere near mining. You can't start an operation when your product is worth half your Opex, and MAK (and many other RP hopefulls) are taking a bet that fertaliser prices are going to continue back up well above historical trends. The risk is that RP is in abundance in several places and current producers may be able to turn the tap on as required and keep the price at a level to keep new producers out of the game. Is this likely? Or, is MAK a certainty to mine? I've been on the fence on this for some time.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades? I was just thinking it must be cheaper for the high grade DSO near surface stuff musn't it? And that's the stuff that, as has been mentioned, will get MAK off the ground as a producer while, hopefully, the RP price moves up.

Just thinking

Gotta be somewhat similar to IO producers doesn't it - need good grade DSO to startup and get cash to then get lower grade up to scratch?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Without being bothered to track back through the FS data and this thread, is the $150/tonne opex you quote kennas the overall opex for all grades?

Without myself going back to the initial FS in regard to the trucking solution for DSO to TC and rail to Darwin, and onto the wharf (yet to be built) and a ship to .... wherever, it was $150 a ton. That was the initial DSO operation and the profit was going to be used to slap together a beneficiation plant and rail line for the 'long term' operation, for the lower grade stuff.

All hinges on what price they can get for RP contracts.

And, what the final Opex for the cheap trucking option is.

As a related muse, I do remember AD saying some time ago that he was not seeking a lock in of forward sales of RP or off-take agreements (unlike Legend) as he was confident RP would remain high.

And, I also guess that the $150 Opex for the cheap trucking option will blow out, as all initial forecasts do.

Now, having said that, if people like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are right, agri commods are going to go through the roof in the next several years, so this phase of the cycle may be the perfect buying opportunity. If they are right... I have no idea.

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hmmm, nearly everyone I've talked to thinks it will be much under $150.... More in the range of $100.... I tend to agree with them...