AEV - Avenira Limited

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

If the 60s level holds I'm going to sell all but a token amount to leave my options open for the SPP. This is allowed according to the terms they have announced right?

 

[DowJones]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

yes i agree, they say they want to reward long holders and help small holders etc, but then make an offer which is open for anyone with a share or two in two weeks time.
it rewards no one bar people who buy a share before this time.
its just like the bon buyup.
to me the large volume cant b attributed to some tin down tassie or a port agreement which was always going to occur, or many thousands of people buying up to get in on this vauge ssp.
the directors can easily grant themselves a few more mill of oppies and stock to make up for the dilution, and have done well already out of the bon buyup.

Totally agree... should have been only Shareholders on the register when they announcement the capital raising... MAK shareholders are treated as new share holders alike, so they is NO REWARD!!

Now that the price is in the 60's (apparent the jump in price was due to an analyst recommendation) should MAK up the SPP to be more than 43c/share?? It seems to be disconnected from the current price. This way at least will support the current share price and avoid dilution...

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well you guys + RP prices have gotten me spooked. I took my profits at 61 today but kept a token parcel to keep my SPP options open depending on which way the wind blows.

I agree that its sh-tty way to treat existing holders (15k free for all regardless of size of holding) and I don't usually like 'manipulative' courses of action like this but if I don't take advantage of it then its only going to be my loss.

 

[DowJones]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Minemakers is on another torrid run...

Does anyone know whats behind it? Or people just getting in for the SPP?

All of the sudden the SPP looks extremely attractive at 43c and with an option at 75c for every 2 shares....

Will MAK revise the SPP?

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Wow this is getting ludicrous (70c as I type).

When do retail holders get the SPP docos? Now looking like a must buy at 43c, oversubscription or not

 

[Largesse]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

well that was fun.

I'm out at 71.5c.

Fib line hit at 72, may be a little resistance. Will wait to see tomorrow I guess. But having said that, it most likely will fly through it on the back of a green Dow and back to back double digit up days.

Left 1 share on the table for access to the SPP just in case.

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

where does MAK go from here? Aren't they due to start production in late 09 early 2010? If RP prices are low - do they just hold off and go in anyway?

Im wondering whether to sell off...

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Sell up to 15k, take it back in the SPP at 43c, add as much/little buffer as you believe it will be oversubscribed. Assuming you bought at not much below 43c or above, of course

 

[derty]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Latest rock phosphate prices from World Bank monthly commodity data sheet shows rock phosphate dropping from $125/tonne to $117/tonne. Still going down, though drop is possibly slowing. Mar-Apr = 20% drop. Apr-May = 6% drop.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0609.pdf

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Latest rock phosphate prices from World Bank monthly commodity data sheet shows rock phosphate dropping from $125/tonne to $117/tonne. Still going down, though drop is possibly slowing. Mar-Apr = 20% drop. Apr-May = 6% drop.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0609.pdf

Thanks derty, good to see the slow down, but it's getting outside MAK's perameters isn't it?

I'm in two minds here with the price.

Is it going to drop back to the mean, that had held for all those years?

Or, is the demand really going to be there and on coming potential supply will not be so great as to keep prices down?

RP is obviously in abundance, which makes me warey.

 

[derty]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

We also need to take into account the behaviour of the USD. A lot of the rises or slowdowns in commodity values can be attributed to the weakening dollar.

When you look at the figures in AUD it is not quite as rosy.
Rock phosphate averages (AUD); Mar-$235, Apr-$174, May-$152.
This gives the month-month drops of Mar-Apr = 25% and Apr-May = 14%.

In addition wasn't the last opex figure released $AU150/tonne? Which places MAK at break even at the moment with the spectre of a rising AUD.

 

[DowJones]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

We also need to take into account the behaviour of the USD. A lot of the rises or slowdowns in commodity values can be attributed to the weakening dollar.

When you look at the figures in AUD it is not quite as rosy.
Rock phosphate averages (AUD); Mar-$235, Apr-$174, May-$152.
This gives the month-month drops of Mar-Apr = 25% and Apr-May = 14%.

In addition wasn't the last opex figure released $AU150/tonne? Which places MAK at break even at the moment with the spectre of a rising AUD.

They did calculate the Opex at $150/tonne on last years high OIL prices. In the latest presentation they said that the OPEX amount included 'fat' so they still have room to navigated.

I also believe in one of their announcements that the NT government might spend some $$$ in a rail loop project to connect the phosphate to the Darwin port railway line.

I think maybe the 2 factors mentioned can bring down the costs. I agree, the variables that could make or break MAK is the FX and RP prices.

However, I am encouraged by the RP price rate drop wasn't as severe as previous months.

On the plus side, they still have Uranium, tin and tungsten interests (tin price went up). In addition, the OPEX for Namibian phosphate (as part of BON takeover) is much lower.

As always, time will tell....

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I was very excited about that recent run to 80 and almost bought some more. Instead, I saw the RP price topple over, so I sold. Been holding that last parcel for some time too. Was sad to let it go...lol

Could probably trade this within the box, but I am now going to wait until it's through that top resistance line before I get excited again....

Still going sideways, but there's trading opportunities within the box I suppose. Just can't get interested in a buy and hope policy while RP looks fragile, to say the least.

Interesting short term set up here with a bit of a pennant on a pole, volume coming off. Looks pretty bullish.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

im a bit perplexed and confused i guess about the spp and the appreciation in the sp during that period. it dived when annouced, but came back the next day, possibly via a brokers rerating, and has held up.
lots of stock at givaway prices(the spp) relative to current sp, plus oppies, to anyone with one share or more.
dilution, people dumping stock once issued, but maybe a company all cashed up and maybe enough dosh to start production and look at getting that spur line started to reduce operating costs. and it seems u could dump yr stock at 70c bar one, and presumably get a chunk of it back at 43c plus oppies.
it cant be all that rosy can it unless i am missing something.
maybe they have stitched up some/the lower opex freighting solutions.

 

[ojm]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Record date for the SPP is the 12th. If I purchase today, will I be eligible for the SPP? Not sure how long it takes for it to register.

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Record date for the SPP is the 12th. If I purchase today, will I be eligible for the SPP? Not sure how long it takes for it to register.

The rule (which can be broken... very rarely) is Trade+3trading days.

As such, I would be outright shocked if you could go on the register by buying today.

It would be about as shocking as Geelong getting the Wooden Spoon in 2009.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Resource upgrade out and it is very large as expected, but the overall grade remains non-DSO, which is very important. They haven't even identified a very small area to be DSO, which I thought should have been the plan.

Their comments on this:

7. The Main Zone mineralization is open in almost all directions but in view of the strong resource position now established, no further lateral drilling is planned save for a small programme which aims to close off a potential Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) deposit in the north west of the currently drilled Main Zone (refer Figure 3).

8. Within the Main Zone, some of the DSO targets indicated by the current 250m x 250m drilling are likely to be subject to detailed infill and close-off drilling over the next two to three months. The infill programmes should allow some re-classification of resources into the measured category and some relatively minor adjustments to the overall resources estimation situation.

So, more wait for prospect of DSO.

Otherwise, Capex for beneficiation must be considered.

 

[DowJones]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not good for phosphate prices ATM! The PINK commodities price data report had phosphate rock price down 17.5% last month.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0709.pdf

I sold most of my MAK around 70c and kept 500 shares in anticipation of the SPP. I was uncertain about the dilution of the stock and it turned out to be a good decision thus far.

There is alot of shares that can potentially be issued:

* SPP (conditional vote for extra issues)
* SPP bonus options (conditional vote for extra issues)
* Extra 10% to Boneparte Diamonds shareholders if they can get 90% of the company
* Unlisted options

I estimate the dilutions to be 50% or more when the dust settles.

I have the right to pick up ~15K worth of shares but I am unsure. The Phosphate price last month has rocked my confidence.

Who will be particpating in the SPP?

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not good for phosphate prices ATM! The PINK commodities price data report had phosphate rock price down 17.5% last month.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0709.pdf

I sold most of my MAK around 70c and kept 500 shares in anticipation of the SPP. I was uncertain about the dilution of the stock and it turned out to be a good decision thus far.

There is alot of shares that can potentially be issued:

* SPP (conditional vote for extra issues)
* SPP bonus options (conditional vote for extra issues)
* Extra 10% to Boneparte Diamonds shareholders if they can get 90% of the company
* Unlisted options

I estimate the dilutions to be 50% or more when the dust settles.

I have the right to pick up ~15K worth of shares but I am unsure. The Phosphate price last month has rocked my confidence.

Who will be particpating in the SPP?

i will, but thats me.
i like the options. in nz one company, widespread? is trying to bring in a deposit, underwater i believe, way over in the chatham islands.
the point, its underwater, and its way, way out in a nasty ocean, but they are throwing money at it. it was drilled back decades ago by a large company, fletchers, and not developed so they must be assuming the phosphate price is going north, or just bored with too much money.

you made a smart move selling at 70, i was itching to do the same but too stupid.
comming from a farm i understand why phosphate prices are down, while it is slower acting and leaches less, you still have to put it on eventually or accept reduced productivity.

plus he's right about the large expensive stockpiles that needed to be used first before the cheaper stocks flow thru to the end user.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The long awaited potential DSO areas are still awaited.

From the Qtly released today:

2. DSO Drilling and Resources

The potential Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) sub-zone of the Arruwurra Deposit has been drilled out at a 125m x 125m grid and all assays should be in hand during July and the DSO resource should be estimated in August.

In the Main Zone Deposit, infill 250m x 250m has indicated several zones potentially amenable to DSO mining, based on a 30% P2O5 cut-off (refer Figure 4). These zones are numerous (250m – 500m wide) and elongate and also require 125m x 125m grid drilling.

This should begin at about the end of July when the requisite approvals are in hand. Estimation of potential DSO resources, mineralisation modelling and pit design will follow.

Diamond and RC drilling to date in 2009 for resource delineation, metallurgical and marketing purposes now totals 23,563m.

Shareholders are reminded that Minemakers’ objective with its DSO evaluation programme is to find sufficient material to run a Wonarah mining operation for 6 to 10 years before a beneficiation plant needs to be built should global economics so demand.

Must remember that the Opex for the initial DSO operation was about $150/tn. Current RP prices?

And:

CORPORATE MATTERS

1. MINE FINANCING

The global financial crisis has impacted both the Company’s share price and the ability and enthusiasm of institutions to invest in mine start-up capital. During the Quarter, the Executive Directors presented extensively to potential financiers and generally met with a cautious but positive response to the project and its economic potential.

It is aimed to raise the start-up capital using the completed feasibility and on the back of the reasonably anticipated future rise in rock phosphate price.

Looks like they're strugling unless RP bounces.