AEV - Avenira Limited

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Is it just me or is it difficult to find easy info on RP prices?

Unlike major commodities e.g. copper or gold there's no site with a clear table/graph that comes up within say the first 50 google results. I actually went 10 pages (20 links per page) down googling a variety of words like "phosphate prices" "current rock phosphate prices" etc. with nothing except for a news articles and pdfs.

Only an amateur so I don't know where the specialist info sites are

I found you had to pay for them -<Or use the link in this thread that shows its at $125 average for April.

I'm assuming in a m onths time, we can use a similar link to check.

As for spot prices... shortof paying, I don't know.

 

[derty]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Johannlo, I found this link after going to skints link he posted. I don't think phosphate has an open market like Ni or Au so prices are only collated every month or so. The World Bank commodity sheet seems to come out on the third of every month. (edit: so there is a spot market for it, cheers rice)

http://go.worldbank.org/5AT3JHWYU0

I can't really see much else but MAK's price wandering south for a while until prices pick up again. Interesting to see where the support will sit.

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Thanks heaps guys.

What a wild ride. I might end up as one of those 'profit takers' the longer termers in this thread are railing against (jumped in today @ .54 after getting rid of around some underperforming stocks)

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Interesting to see where the support will sit.

You really want to see this zone of support hold, or the technicals are all over for a potential break up, and it's back to sideways. At least.

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well looking at the selling positions there are a lot of sellers lined up at high 50s to low 60s so it looks like some sideways movement is to be expected in the very short term.

Is that a correct way of analysing it? i.e. that because there is a large qty of sellers in that bracket that will be the resistance.

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Went through today's audio presentation and even with the PR filter on, assuming they're not pulling their figures out of their behinds, that its looking like a solid mid-long term bet.

Easily developed current reserve, more on the way, logistics in place, govt support, 11 million in the bank and only 2 million burned in the last quarter = considerable breathing room for a small cap explorer.

What I really like from a longer term POV is the SP compared to proven reserves chart which backs up all the above forum comments about how relatively speaking its undervalued esp compared to the darlings BOW and AOE (mind you wouldn't have minded a quick 25-30% over a few weeks on them lol)

Anybody with any insight?

 

[N1Spec]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Went through today's audio presentation and even with the PR filter on, assuming they're not pulling their figures out of their behinds, that its looking like a solid mid-long term bet.

Easily developed current reserve, more on the way, logistics in place, govt support, 11 million in the bank and only 2 million burned in the last quarter = considerable breathing room for a small cap explorer.

What I really like from a longer term POV is the SP compared to proven reserves chart which backs up all the above forum comments about how relatively speaking its undervalued esp compared to the darlings BOW and AOE (mind you wouldn't have minded a quick 25-30% over a few weeks on them lol)

Anybody with any insight?

how can you compare MAK to AOE and BOW??? they are in totally different industries. MAK is looking for rock phosphate and AOE/BOW is in the business of CSM

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Sorry wrong thread, I meant that for MEL not MAK. Stupid mistake I apologise for the confusion!!!!!

If only the edit button was active for more than 20 min

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I was very excited about that recent run to 80 and almost bought some more. Instead, I saw the RP price topple over, so I sold. Been holding that last parcel for some time too. Was sad to let it go...lol

Could probably trade this within the box, but I am now going to wait until it's through that top resistance line before I get excited again....

 

[happytown]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

mak has announced a spp

at a price of 43c (up to $15K or just under 35,000 shares)

with one free attaching option for every 2 shares granted under spp

exercise price 75c expiring 31/05/10

record date 12/06/09

cheers

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

AAARgh everything's getting diluted. Explains why I came back from lunch and it went from travelling well to 10% drop

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

mak has announced a spp

at a price of 43c (up to $15K or just under 35,000 shares)

with one free attaching option for every 2 shares granted under spp

exercise price 75c expiring 31/05/10

record date 12/06/09

cheers

Oh brillitant, my ANZ is raising capital. My MAK is raising capital. My MQG is raising capital. My BBI needs capital Not going to well here...

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

so does this mean its not pro rata, ie my dribble of residual shares will give me as much chance of the 15k as some poor punter whos been in with loads of these suckers?

also does the record date, in the future, mean it will be worked out on this date, who gets any? or is this when u need to hand over the readies.
re the former, isnt this a little odd?

 

[happytown]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

so does this mean its not pro rata, ie my dribble of residual shares will give me as much chance of the 15k as some poor punter whos been in with loads of these suckers?

also does the record date, in the future, mean it will be worked out on this date, who gets any? or is this when u need to hand over the readies.
re the former, isnt this a little odd?

shag

theoretically yes

record date is simply the date upon which you must be recorded as a s/holder of mak (always remembering to take into account T+3), you have to pay the readies by the offer closing date (unless it closes early for whatever reason, which may include oversubscription)

cheers

 

[happytown]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

nice volume today likely ppl looking to get on board mak (and others increasing their holdings) prior to the record date for spp eligibility

sp up 20% on large volume today

cheers

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yep I for one am happy to be squeezed at 40c. That gives me a 50% margin from today's price to soak up the inevitable dilution.

 

[topsprog]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I would not get too excited about MAK at 60 cents. I was watching the booktrader on today's trades - shares drop to 46 cents and suddenly shoot up to 62+ cents over a short period. These did not seem to be stacked buys waiting their turn but looked like sudden purchases on large blocks of shares that took the price to the next highest level - up they cascaded. Why would anybody jump in and purchase shares at crazy prices to get the SPP - in theory it would seem you only need one share for the entitlement and you have until the 6th June (I think) to buy the necessary shares to validate your entitilement.

Think about it -
a) rapidly dropping rock phospate prices (now below MAK's original estimated cost of production - that has now been dropped to less that AUD 100 - MAK presentation 26th May 2009),
b) an unusual SPP with an offer to purchase up to $15K of shares to anyone who buys a share before June 6th 2009 - why would the average retail shareholder pay 60 cents today?
c) same day deal sweetener with announcement of tin assays from a few holes in Tassie.
d) same day announcement of Port agreement in Darwin.
e) day after announcing bonus shares to Bonaparte holders if get >90% acceptance.

I thought MAK was looking a good bet for substantial gains however together with Namibia business they are deep into rock phosphate that for all we know may go back to USD 50 (especially as earlier high pricing has stimulated lot's of activity in this commodity). With prices dropping I am much more cautious and todays price behaviour has multiplied my suspicions. Hope I am wrong as I had this figured as a good business.
Sold most of my holding past 2 days with view to getting back in at 43 if all else seems positive at the time

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I did think the tin announcement sounded a bit irrelevant but didn't look into the movements in such detail. I agree immediate RP prices are a concern but as the above thread illustrates, unlike most other commodities its hard to get up to date info and know which way prices will turn. Thanks for your insight

 

[DowJones]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I would not get too excited about MAK at 60 cents. I was watching the booktrader on today's trades - shares drop to 46 cents and suddenly shoot up to 62+ cents over a short period. These did not seem to be stacked buys waiting their turn but looked like sudden purchases on large blocks of shares that took the price to the next highest level - up they cascaded. Why would anybody jump in and purchase shares at crazy prices to get the SPP - in theory it would seem you only need one share for the entitlement and you have until the 6th June (I think) to buy the necessary shares to validate your entitilement.

Think about it -
a) rapidly dropping rock phospate prices (now below MAK's original estimated cost of production - that has now been dropped to less that AUD 100 - MAK presentation 26th May 2009),
b) an unusual SPP with an offer to purchase up to $15K of shares to anyone who buys a share before June 6th 2009 - why would the average retail shareholder pay 60 cents today?
c) same day deal sweetener with announcement of tin assays from a few holes in Tassie.
d) same day announcement of Port agreement in Darwin.
e) day after announcing bonus shares to Bonaparte holders if get >90% acceptance.

I thought MAK was looking a good bet for substantial gains however together with Namibia business they are deep into rock phosphate that for all we know may go back to USD 50 (especially as earlier high pricing has stimulated lot's of activity in this commodity). With prices dropping I am much more cautious and todays price behaviour has multiplied my suspicions. Hope I am wrong as I had this figured as a good business.
Sold most of my holding past 2 days with view to getting back in at 43 if all else seems positive at the time

I agree with your thoughts. I am puzzled too as to why the shares went from 46c to a high of 62.5c and eventually closing at 60c. I feel for people that sold yesterday and early today on pressure selling - who could have thought this could happen?

As a shareholder I was thinking that MAK would be floundering around the mid 40's to 50c. I am without answer as to today's surge - is there a rumour of conditions to the SPP (i.e. multiple of existing share holdings?) and who is buying? (smells like someone knows something not in the annoucements)

I do like their prospects with phosphate and its a bonus they have other projects like tin and tungsten. In addition, I do like the BON and MAK synergies - they don't need UCL in the long term. The NT phosphate $150 cost per tonne was calculated using last years extremely high oil prices and if they can implement a railway line from phosphate to existing rail network, they have some buffer. However, not a lot as last months rock phosphate price was approx $125 US per tonne.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

yes i agree, they say they want to reward long holders and help small holders etc, but then make an offer which is open for anyone with a share or two in two weeks time.
it rewards no one bar people who buy a share before this time.
its just like the bon buyup.
to me the large volume cant b attributed to some tin down tassie or a port agreement which was always going to occur, or many thousands of people buying up to get in on this vauge ssp.
the directors can easily grant themselves a few more mill of oppies and stock to make up for the dilution, and have done well already out of the bon buyup.