AEV - Avenira Limited

[GumbyLearner]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

:sleeping:

Knock knock MAK share price. Wake uuuup......

Actually, it's forming quite a nice base really and should have a shareholder group now confident in Wonarah and may not bail if we have a nasty turn down in the market. I hope...

I didn't notice that Strachan had been commissioned to write up a report on MAK. Good to get the word out I suppose, but I'm always sus on any paid for reports.

Anyway, he's slapped a $5 valuation on them once in production.

Strachan Corporate calculates that the Wonarah project will be viable at rock phosphate prices above US$110/t and at a base case price of US$160/t, the project has an NPV of A$783 million at a discount rate of 13% pa, or over $5.00 per share for Minemakers on an expanded capital basis, comparing favourably with the company’s current market capitalisation of ~$51 million.

And that's at US$160/t

Sensativites are also mentioned:

$110 $160 $200
EBITDA 2012 $m * $32 $193 $322
NPV @13% pa $37 $783 $1,379
IRR 16% 89% 188%
Value per Share ^ $0.24 $5.07 $8.93

So, at $200/t it's potentially worth $8.93. Thats nice.

Sitting down at a lowly 50c means those getting in here could see a handy return in the coming years. Unless the world does completely implode and/or RP prices drop considerably. I'm still waiting for a higher high to materialise...back to sleep...

The world needs to eat...eventually.

I agree Kennas...something has to come of this stock!

DYOR! Just my opinion!

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I might be dreaming but is that an inverse H&S I spy down there?

Back to sleep kennas... :sleeping:

Back to sleep MAK... :sleeping:

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Wake up Kennas!!
movement at the station,be interesting to see end of day close?
currently up 20%

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Wake up Kennas!!
movement at the station,be interesting to see end of day close?
currently up 20%

Yes, something up you'd think. Unusual for a flat day. I'm not getting too excited till EOD close though.

Chart's looking good at the moment. This is delayed. Actual price and volume at the blue lines.

Is there news due?

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

News could come from a couple of areas
AD to give another presso in the states this week or next?
BON takeover at 44% (expect more if todays rise can be held)
meetings with locals still progressing, hopefully good news
Still waiting on updates on dso progress

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

it is rather odd isnt it. i noticed it ramped up and wondered as per usual.
i guess some news will come out at some stage, and aisic will totally ignore the continuity of reporting and insider trading laws as per usual.
like really who can see value in the bon takeover, what am i missing?
i'd say some transport issue/logistics has been resolved or drilling results leaked out.
lets see the speeding ticket then the excuse that a report was issued rating the stock at circa 5 buks, a week back.
but then its late in the week, wednesday, so the boys at corporate monitoring r likely at the pub or local knock shop...

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Good finish today,up 25% with biggest volume in a long time 2.3mill
Bon takeover is a plus, to my way of thinking.

Potentially low cost production with access to northern hemisphere markets
a nice buffer if they can get both projects up and running.

Still a spec and lots can go wrong, but great potential imho

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

lets see the speeding ticket then the excuse that a report was issued rating the stock at circa 5 buks,...

Ticket but no excuse.

Was the most significant day for some time. They are due to upgrade Wonarah at some stage and identify the potential DSO tonnage at Arruwurra at some point. Perhaps that's leaked out of the boat somewhere?

Looks like a significant break from the sideways move.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Looks like a significant break from the sideways move.

Well, having said a significant break, there also seems to be a significant resistance level around about here.

The lines tell the story right now.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well, having said a significant break, there also seems to be a significant resistance level around about here.

The lines tell the story right now.

maybe it needs whatever possibly has been leaked out to come out officially to push it thru.
like whats the usual lag between a unusual rise and then an announcement.

if anyone can tell me why bon is so flash, in this climate, ie cash is king, sp is king, please do.
rock phosphate and its co products in aus must be king, as nz loves it, aus likes it, and asia will chew thru it, all in close proximity.
i hope drummond gives us(token) farmers a discount...if only for staying onboard a sinking ship.
fonterra has loads of dosh post a bond issue-very sucessful. i hope he offered them a deal.
ps i presume u guys know milk prices appear to have recovered, and they barely went low anyway.
as i've said before, nowadays its about owning yr whole chain(like the chinese presently), and phosphate is a critical part of that chain, bugger the king of morroco setting the price and supplies. this all is just small change for the likes of fonterra.
look at forest in 05, the chinese wanted a majority stake in his/aus resources, for a bit of liquidity, in something that was meant to help them anyway.
i'd rather see an australasian influence than chinese or n. american for mak.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Very ordinary couple of days since the breakout through 62 c.

What holders should hope for is for that to become support to maintain longer term potential uptrend, and it may signal a good entry position, which is what I am looking for. Already have a pile held from 2 years ago on funnys but a bounce off 62 and break up through 75 from here will be a great technical entry for me.

 

[ojm]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Whats going on?

Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Whats going on?

Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.

Punters just love taking money out of this. Every time there is a spike, it is sold off. Check the last few months chart. People just don't seem to believe in them and want to get out at any opportunity. Are they the smart ones?

 

[skint]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Whats going on?

Sitting at 58.5 at the moment. Down approx. 12% today. No news. Come down considerably from a few days back.

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0509.pdf

Here's a clue. Toward the bottom you'll see the RP averages for April at $125. ie. Splat. MAK's a goer with prices above $120, so there isn't a lot of wriggle room anymore. Even if RP prices recover in the future to stay way above the L/term average of $50 or so, funding for a 2010 start up will presumably be more difficult with the economics more in question. Basically, if RP prices goes for another run, those on board will make a killing IMO, but...........

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0509.pdf

Here's a clue. Toward the bottom you'll see the RP averages for April at $125. ie. Splat.

Well picked up, and you are right, this is splat news for MAK if that remains steady. As we've been saying for some time, RP prices were the big risk. I wonder how MAK are going to display this information on their next weekly presentation? What are those prices in USD? Any chance that these prices will pick up once the economy picks up again?

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

If, in the current crap environment RP is $125... and we need at least $120...

What's the issue? Surely the RP price will increase as world economies improve, and BioFuels grow?

I mean, yes there is risk... but, if RP is currently above the target price... and eco conditions appear to be improving (US Job data, WorldWide Equity markets, AUDvUSD, etc, etc)...

Surely it's quite a good thing that RP is > target???

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

If, in the current crap environment RP is $125... and we need at least $120...

What's the issue? Surely the RP price will increase as world economies improve, and BioFuels grow?

I mean, yes there is risk... but, if RP is currently above the target price... and eco conditions appear to be improving (US Job data, WorldWide Equity markets, AUDvUSD, etc, etc)...

Surely it's quite a good thing that RP is > target???

RP prices may increase, but probably not back to bubble levels. Long term is anyones guess.

Opex is supposed to be A$150 tn, so will vary in USD according to the exchange rate. USD is heading south longer term imo, which will lower the margins.

Strachan's report valued MAK at 24c with RP at $110, so add a few cents for the current number.

Am I reading correctly that you think it's a 'good thing' that RP is around these levels? I must be seeing things.

 

[ricee007]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

RP prices may increase, but probably not back to bubble levels. Long term is anyones guess.

Opex is supposed to be A$150 tn, so will vary in USD according to the exchange rate. USD is heading south longer term imo, which will lower the margins.

Strachan's report valued MAK at 24c with RP at $110, so add a few cents for the current number.

Am I reading correctly that you think it's a 'good thing' that RP is around these levels? I must be seeing things.

Increase from 110 to 160 sees an increase in value of over 21times.
2.35$ increase in RP for every 100% increase in price.
Using Straight line at least...in reality, it would probably be more than this at low increases.

So, RP is currently $15 above $110... so, this is 15/2.35 = 6.38 * 100% increases of 24c.

This gives a value of $1.53.

Completly rough calculations, and if you say I'm out by a whopping 50% (effect of weak USD, etc)... that's still over $0.75, or still well above the current share price.

Now, this is at a time when the world economy 'sucks'.

In 2010 when they start digging (AFAIK), the world economy should be better. RP should be better. Ergo, SP should be above $1.53 (or, at worst, above $0.765).

Surely the worth that MAK has when RP is more than 10% above what is effectively needed is a good thing, compared to the current shareprice?

Let's look at this one more time.
Current SP is $0.57.
If RP holds, it is VERY hard to see the SP being less than $0.765, or approximately 35% higher than current price.
RP being at this current price, given the current crap economic conditions which are expected to improve (dragging RP back up with it), is certainly not a bad thing for investors which have had quite a nervous time with this stock.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

i wish i could get it for that price.
if anyones interested..

http://www.ravensdown.co.nz/NR/rdon...32/0/Ravensdownpricelist30January2009May7.pdf

nz$ so half it for us dollar

old news but interesting, as at the time of printing lots of sh-t had hit the fan, milk prices were at their bottom etc.
look at shipping costs too..i guess morocco is a long way away.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/623615/Co-op-to-explore-NZ-phosphate

i suspect its just lag time, farmers conserving capital for a short period, and the large piles of overpriced inventory they had to chew thru first. for rock phosphate the price jumps around a bit on that world bank site.

 

[johannlo]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Is it just me or is it difficult to find easy info on RP prices?

Unlike major commodities e.g. copper or gold there's no site with a clear table/graph that comes up within say the first 50 google results. I actually went 10 pages (20 links per page) down googling a variety of words like "phosphate prices" "current rock phosphate prices" etc. with nothing except for a news articles and pdfs.

Only an amateur so I don't know where the specialist info sites are