AED - AED Oil

[bigdog]

AED SP is currently up 4.85% this morning on VG volume of 234,625

$4.97 +0.230 +4.85% 234,625 share $1,152,381 @ 08-Mar 11:46:59 AM

Expect ASX Ann today or tomorrow Puffin South West Resources per ASX ann on March 6 2007

AED 4:34 PM Drilling Progress Report No 2 - Puffin-8
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070306/pdf/311bk8db3sf08j.pdf

"The Company wishes to advise that the information will be released by the end of this week."

Date -----Close-Volume
07-Mar-07 4.74 277,123
06-Mar-07 4.57 218,136
05-Mar-07 4.52 466,157
02-Mar-07 4.76 149,093
01-Mar-07 4.89 199,706
28-Feb-07 4.82 648,110
27-Feb-07 5 330,122
26-Feb-07 5 613,015
23-Feb-07 5 404,075
22-Feb-07 5 429,020
21-Feb-07 5 580,000
20-Feb-07 4.85 240,179
19-Feb-07 4.85 147,233
16-Feb-07 4.99 302,682
15-Feb-07 5.02 765,354

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann March 8

AED 12:29 PM Puffin South West Oil Resources
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00701058
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070308/pdf/311cl0kyyqws3b.pdf

ASX Announcement
8 March 2007
Puffin South West Oil Resources
Puffin SW region oil volumes similar to NE - Appraisal/production well planned in 2007

Estimates of Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) in the Puffin South West region (SW), in the Timor Sea, owned 100 per cent by AED Oil Limited (AED or the Company), have been confirmed in the range of 38 to 97 million stock tank barrels (MMstb). This range and the most likely volume of 65 MMstb are similar to the volume of oil in the Puffin North East region (NE) now being developed by AED. Recovery factors for the SW are likely to be broadly similar to those for the NE and are estimated to range from 40% to 70% depending upon the areal extent and shape of the reservoirs, reservoir quality and performance and the mode of development.

To better define oil volumes in the SW and reserves, AED plans to drill an appraisal/development well on the structure in October this year, as part of a confirmed three well drilling program over the broader Puffin Field.

The Company is also committed to additional seismic processing and interpretation, including re-processing of an earlier BHP Petroleum generated 3D seismic survey and horizon-based velocity analysis. Bids for this work have been recently received and are currently being evaluated. The work is expected to be completed in three months.

 

[bigdog]

I would appreciate if someone could calculate the value of the AED oil reserves?

Please detail your calculations.

There has been minmimal SP increase apart from reaching high of $5.15 and now down to $4.99 following ASX ann today
AED $4.99 +$0.25 +5.27% $5.15 high and $4.86 low 626,832 shares $3,124,915 @ 08-Mar 13:39:47

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Big dog check my post on NWE, I have calculated what the royalty is going to be worth = $65m so you'd think well over $3Billion to AED

 

[bigdog]

AED Shares Issued 71,219,034 with Market Capitalisation $355.4 million at March 7 close @ $4.74 suggests that there should plenty for SP increases!!

Big dog check my post on NWE, I have calculated what the royalty is going to be worth = $65m so you'd think well over $3Billion to AED

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=132088

NWE previously released 49m recoverable barrels which gave a royalty stream value of $41m

So I'm betting they will take the P50 figure again = 65m bls, apply a "conservative" 44% recovery factor as they have in the past which will give them 28.6m bls recoverable

So total recoverable barrels = 49m + 28.6m = 77.6m

Now if 49m recoverable bls = $41m royalty cash flow

Then 77.6m recoverable bls should = $65m cash flow

With 200m shares on issue = Royalty value of 32.5c attributable to NWE!!!!

Thats my call

 

[chops_a_must]

AED Shares Issued 71,219,034 with Market Capitalisation $355.4 million at March 7 close @ $4.74 suggests that there should plenty for SP increases!!

Very glad I got back into this yesterday!

Lesson #1: Don't move trailing stops fully on price rises of a very volatile stock! Especially when you want it as a long/ mid term hold!

Could be looking at an outstanding breakout tomorrow. The biggest volume seen in a long time.

And also some big numbers going through at NWE. Might be breaking out side by side for once.

 

[bigdog]

AED $5.05 +$0.31 +6.54% with high $5.15 1,451,554 shares $7,247,828 at close today 08-Mar 16:10:10

yes Chops, the volume today was great and only bettered on six occasions in the past 6 months

Date -----Close-Volume
07-Mar-07 4.74 277,123
06-Mar-07 4.57 218,136
05-Mar-07 4.52 466,157
02-Mar-07 4.76 149,093
01-Mar-07 4.89 199,706
28-Feb-07 4.82 648,110
27-Feb-07 5 330,122
26-Feb-07 5 613,015
23-Feb-07 5 404,075
22-Feb-07 5 429,020
21-Feb-07 5 580,000
20-Feb-07 4.85 240,179
19-Feb-07 4.85 147,233
16-Feb-07 4.99 302,682
15-Feb-07 5.02 765,354

14-Feb-07 4.99 1,769,574

07-Dec-06 3.9200 1,555,237

11-Sep-06 3.7600 1,742,863
08-Sep-06 3.7000 2,287,870
06-Sep-06 3.0500 2,710,651
05-Sep-06 3.1000 4,109,323

 

[bigdog]

Todays Age interpretation of yesterdays ASX ANN

30000 barrels per day at say $US60 * 365 days = $US657 million revenue PA from June from its north-east region reservoirs

Puffin's south-west region was estimated yesterday to have a similar to the volume of oil in the north-east region that underpins Puffin's initial development (perhaps another $US650 million revenue PA)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...l/2007/03/08/1173166895679.html?page=fullpage

AED Oil upgrades Puffin potential
March 9, 2007

AdvertisementONCE considered too small to warrant being developed, the oil potential of the 35-year-old Puffin discovery in the Timor Sea's Australian waters has been substantially upgraded by its owner of the past three years, Melbourne-based AED Oil.

The upgrading points to a possible doubling in Puffin's oil potential by taking in the field's south-west region. The upgrade comes as AED works towards establishing Puffin as a 30,000 barrel-a-day oil producer from June from its north-east region reservoirs.

Puffin's south-west region was estimated yesterday to have between 38 million and 97 million barrels of oil in place. That range ”” with a most likely volume of 65 million barrels and a recovery factor estimated at 40-70 per cent ”” is similar to the volume of oil in the north-east region that underpins Puffin's initial development. The estimate has prompted AED to begin studies into a possible stand-alone development.

AED shares were driven 31 ¢, or 6.5 per cent, higher to $5.05 on the south-west revelation, which is based on results from two previous wells and a review of geological, geochemical and engineering data.

The market is now valuing the company at more than $770 million (fully diluted). Former Macquarie Bank and UBS investment banker David Dix brought AED to the market in a $55 million float in 2005. Mr Dix is executive chairman and the group's biggest shareholder (20 million shares directly and indirectly).

AED plans to drill an appraisal/development well in October ”” and cautioned that the "relatively large" ranges in the south-west's oil volume estimate reflected the degree of "uncertainty inherent in the current estimates".

BARRY FitzGERALD

 

[resourceboom]

This oiler should produce approx 100M barrels of oil,
has some other outstanding and massive exploration targets,
and is only valued fully diluted at around $800M, unbelievable.
Still great value!!

 

[resourceboom]

looks like this one won't take off till the market has more confidence that the risks are reduced.... such as good results from the puffin 8 drill, and production meeting forecasts.... will be interesting if all is good.

 

[alankew]

Any chance someoen could put a bomb under this-very frustrating that it cant seem to hold above$5ish.Hopefully results not too far away

 

[alankew]

More buyers required please.Needs to close at current levels which would qualify as a breakout(not outstanding)Resistance at $5.15 looking at market depth then more at $5.20.Would i be right in assuming that after that there is little to hold it back(i am anly looking at Comsec so perhaps someone could help with data re sells at higher prices-is this info free anywhere else)

 

[alankew]

Note to self-type faster in future b4 price drops and you look stupid!

 

[Tye]

Looks like sellers have taken control of this one at present. $5 reseistance level needs to be broken with a strong candle for this share to take of, but looks like a sideways movement for a little longer.

 

[laurie]

Some still may see this a a risky stock

cheers laurie

 

[michael_selway]

Some still may see this a a risky stock

cheers laurie

Does this stock have limited mien life?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -4.2 -6.2 222.4 196.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.9

thx

MS

 

[chops_a_must]

Looks like sellers have taken control of this one at present. $5 reseistance level needs to be broken with a strong candle for this share to take of, but looks like a sideways movement for a little longer.

I think the resistance at $5 is largely gone.

I wouldn't worry so much, it's just established a new trading range. From just below 4.45, and up until $5 ish, it's moved to between $4.70 and $5.20. Everything is going to plan. Breakout will hopefully be from above $5.20.

Strong ascending triangles are forming on all time frames, so it does look rather bullish, still.

 

[michael_selway]

I think the resistance at $5 is largely gone.

I wouldn't worry so much, it's just established a new trading range. From just below 4.45, and up until $5 ish, it's moved to between $4.70 and $5.20. Everything is going to plan. Breakout will hopefully be from above $5.20.

Strong ascending triangles are forming on all time frames, so it does look rather bullish, still.

Does it look like below that AED only has a 11 year mine life approx?

thx

MS

Date: 9/3/2007
Author: Barry FitzGerald
Source: The Age --- Page: B1

AED Oil has upgraded the potential of its Puffin oil field in the Timor Sea. The Melbourne-based company is aiming to establish the 35-year-old discovery as a 30,000 barrel-a-day oil producer from June 2007. The oil potential of the region's south-west has been estimated at up to 97 million barrels. The announcement caused AED's shares to rise $A0.31 to close at $A5.05 on 8 March 2007. The company is now valued at $A770m by the market.

 

[resourceboom]

Hi MS, I think you've asked about the field life a couple of times without answer, so I hope this helps:

Yes, the puffin field probably will probably have an approximate life of around 11 years, and likely to produce 10 mill barrels per year for much of that time. Based on this the company is very good value if everything goes to plan.

But they also have some great other exploration prospects with expected OIIP of over 100 million barrels more!

I have picked AED in the april tipping comp, as the currently drilling Puffin-8 should prove successfull, and that all is good in prep for 1st oil, so the market cap should increase significantly from current.

Does it look like below that AED only has a 11 year mine life approx?

thx

MS

 

[Tye]

The buyers dry up so fast on this share. As I stated before $5 is strong resistance, it just cant gain the strength to break this level signifigantly.
Although consolidation is great for a share just before a large run up.