Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AED - AED Oil

Considering the price of oil is falling this stock is holding up well at $4.68 any news on upgrade of reserves can only strengthen the sp tightly held also :2twocents

cheers laurie
 
We can expect the ASX second quarter announcements today perhaps after 4:00 PM based upon the prior practice by AED.

First Quarter Activities Report AED 31/10/2006 16:10
First Quarter Cashflow Report AED 31/10/2006 16:04

Fourth Quarter Activities Report AED 31/07/2006 17:07
Fourth Quarter Cashflow Report AED 31/07/2006 16:43

Third Quarter Activities Report AED 28/04/2006 12:12
Third Quarter Cashflow Report AED 28/04/2006 12:12
 
ASX anns today

There was no Second Quarter Activities Report advised to ASX today
-- has always issued same day as Quarter Cashflow Report

-- expecting update From QUARTERLY REPORT on 30 SEPTEMBER 2006 issued Oct 31 2006:
NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
- Finalise Reserve evaluation for Puffin North East and Puffin South West.
- Finalise planning, procurement and financing for the Puffin-8 well.

AED 5:57 PM Second Quarter Cashflow Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689532

$5.3 million cash Dec 31 with second qtr expenditure of $4.9 million
 
ASX ann today
-- "could commence at approximately 30,000 BOPD (Barrels of Oil Per Day)".

AED 8:23 AM Second Quarter Activities Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00689680

AED Oil Limited (AED or Company) is pleased to present its December 2006 Quarterly Report.

First Oil by Mid Year 2007
AED is now rapidly progressing to the target of first oil by mid year 2007. The company is building a production team and is increasing its geological and engineering team. Important appointments include Peter Behrenbruch as Chief Operating Officer, Rick De Boer as Chief Geologist, Hollis Fitch-McNeill as FPSO Manager stationed in Singapore and Rod Foulds as Crude Marketing consultant. All major contracts for the FPSO conversion, the drilling of Puffin-8 and the installation have been let.

Drilling Puffin 8
It is anticipated that the drilling of the Puffin-8 production well in the North East 1 region of the Puffin Field will commence early in March 2007. The production well when completed will produce in tandem with Puffin-7 via a subsea manifold to the FPSO. Reservoir simulation conducted by the Company indicates that production from this combined development could commence at approximately 30,000 BOPD (Barrels of Oil Per Day). All procurement items for the well have now been finalised.

The primary objective of Puffin-8 well is the LK1a Cretaceous sand package discovered by the Puffin-1 well and subsequently drilled by Puffin-5 and most recently by AED with the Puffin-7 well.

The planned trajectory of the well is vertical until 980m True Vertical Depth from Rotary Table (TVDRT) at which point angle building will commence at 3 º/30m until an inclination of 46 º is reached (1442m Measured Depth from Rotary Table (MDRT) / 1394m TVDRT) on an azimuth of 176 °. This angle will be maintained through the Grebe and Upper Johnson formations. The well will continue on at these parameters until reaching 2152m MDRT/ 1885m TVDRT at which point angle will be increased again at 3 º/30m until 85 º is reached by 2542m MDRT / 2043m TVDRT. A string of 9-5/8” casing will then be set.

Upon exiting the casing shoe, angle building will continue at 2.5 °/30m until reaching the heel target at 89.7 º degrees. The top LK1a reservoir is prognosed at 2700m MDRT/2046m TVDRT (2021m TVDSS). Once through the heel target, drilling will continue on to the toe at the same inclination, maintaining azimuth. Final measured depth is expected to be approximately 2920m at 2047m TVDRT at the toe. The well will be completed as a horizontal producer after running sand screens.

NEXT STEPS
The next significant steps for the Company are as follows.
Reserves of Puffin South West
Resource for Puffin North East 2
Announcement of completion of Financing
Drilling of Puffin-8
FPSO conversion
Installation of subsea facilities
 
So, is AED undervalued or is the expected production later this year already factored into the sp.
 
Out Too Soon said:
So, is AED undervalued or is the expected production later this year already factored into the sp.
I don't think anyone really knows, given that they haven't got final figures on their reserves. On this thread, $12-$14 has been touted as a target price.
 
Looks like AED might be preparing for one of those little runs it is so fond of. Here's hoping, but it looks good. Might be the last time you see it at this level for a while.
 
ASX ann on reserves today

AED 1:29 PM Puffin NE 2 Oil Initially in Place
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00692681

SP increased marginally yesterday and no much reaction to ann 30 minutes ago!!

Look like the reserves could be!!!:
-- Puffin North East NE2, (updip of Puffin-3) Oil Initially In Place 11-30 Mmbl
-- Any reserves attributable to Puffin NE2 will be in addition to the previously announced P50 Reserves of 40 Mmbl.

ASX Announcement
13 February 2007
Oil Resources
Puffin North East NE2, (updip of Puffin-3) Oil Initially In Place 11-30 Mmbl

As part of AED Oil Limited’s (AED) continuing assessment of the Puffin Oil Field, the Company has estimated volumes for the NE2 area of the North East region. AED has completed an interim assessment of the potential of this area, based on drilling results and the reinterpretation of two seismic surveys (one also reprocessed). The separate oil accumulation (NE2) is updip of wells Puffin-3 and Puffin-4. For reference, Puffin-3 was drilled by ARCO in 1975, with 40-42 oAPI oil in the LK1a sand (wireline samples). The well was not flow tested. Puffin-4 was drilled by BHP in 1988 and recovered a wireline sample with a trace of oil. The map below shows the location of wells as part of the Puffin horst, the location of the North East region, and also an outline of the NE1, NE2 and NE3 areas.

The NE2 accumulation is essentially an extension of the Late Cretaceous Puffin main North East (NE1) area (Puffin formation, LK1a sand), containing Puffin-5 and Puffin-7. The two areas are separated by a faulted zone and saddle, and as such show different oil-water contacts: Puffin-5 at 2034m sub sea (ss), compared to Puffin-3 at 2077m ss. Unlike the very flat, “table-top” Puffin-5 structure, the structure updip of Puffin-3 appears to show on seismic a more anticlinal feature, with a larger oil column of maximum 43m.

According to industry practice, a Monte Carlo analysis was undertaken to reflect uncertainty in parameters, incorporating a range of petrophysical and fluid parameters. The resulting Oil-Initially-In-Place (OIIP) range for the NE2 area is 11 to 30 million barrels. This OIIP range is consistent with the analysis undertaken by Alberta Energy Corporation (AEC) as incorporated in the AED AGM presentation of 22 November 2006. Recoverable oil will be determined by the application of the recovery factor in due course, estimated to fall into the range of 40-70 percent. This result indicates the attractiveness of the NE2 area, particularly with regard to its close proximity to the production facilities (FPSO). It is planned to drill this structure (initially one well) as part of the anticipated three well drilling program planned for later this year. This will be followed by the preparation and independent review of a reserve statement for this NE2 area. Any reserves attributable to Puffin NE2 will be in addition to the previously announced P50 Reserves of 40 Mmbl.

As previously advised the drilling of the production well (Puffin-8) in the Puffin NE1 area remains on track and is scheduled to spud on 16/17 February 2006
 
bigdog said:
ASX ann on reserves today

AED 1:29 PM Puffin NE 2 Oil Initially in Place
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00692681

SP increased marginally yesterday and no much reaction to ann 30 minutes ago!!

Look like the reserves could be!!!:
-- Puffin North East NE2, (updip of Puffin-3) Oil Initially In Place 11-30 Mmbl
-- Any reserves attributable to Puffin NE2 will be in addition to the previously announced P50 Reserves of 40 Mmbl.
The chart has been building bullishly over the last couple of weeks. I'm thinking this news will put a rocket up the a*se of the share price tomorrow morning. A roughly 50% increase in reserves can't do anything but. What a gem of a stock.
 
Any reason that it didnt put a rocket under at time of ann or is it just a matter of time for people to realise
 
alankew said:
Any reason that it didnt put a rocket under at time of ann or is it just a matter of time for people to realise
Unless it is a blue chip, news takes a while to get around.
 
also take note that last time the reserves statement came out it took a while from the price of around 3.30 to start moving up to the current 4.70 odd.
 
Looking good to start of the day +8 cents

AED $4.85 +$0.08 +1.68% 14-Feb 10:00:40
 
Todays news based upon ASX ANN yesterday
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21226767-664,00.html

Puffin to feed on Timor oil
Mandi Zonneveldt
February 15, 2007 12:00am
OIL and gas junior AED Oil has tapped the market for $US75 million ($A96 million) as it prepares to make the jump from explorer to producer.

The Melbourne-based company is developing the Puffin project in the Timor Sea and expects to begin production in June.

AED was targeting initial production of about 18,000 barrels of oil a day, but the money raised will fund an additional well that will boost its early output to about 30,000 barrels.

The company took advantage of soaring oil prices last year to lock in sales of 1.2 million barrels of oil at $US71 a barrel -- near historic highs.

The Puffin project is located in waters about 700km west of Darwin.

The Puffin north-east field contains 40 million barrels of proved and probable oil reserves, and AED believes a nearby field could contain as much as 30 million barrels more.

The money raised was through an issue of convertible notes.

AED shares, which have increased more than five fold in the past 12 months, rose 22c or 4.6 per cent yesterday to $4.99
 
It gapped up straight through the last resistance this morning. In blue skies now, where she stops no-one knows.
 
chops_a_must - AED is looking greater every day!

There was an ASX ann this morning where Macquarie Equity Capital Markets Limited has exercised its option to purchase an additional US$10 million of Unsecured Notes

AED 9:49 AM Convertible Note Offering -Exercise of Lead Managers Option
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693381

Convertible Note Offering – Exercise of Lead Manager’s Option
Further to the announcement made on 14 February 2007, regarding the offering by AED Oil Limited (“AED”) of US$75 million unsecured and unsubordinated Convertible Notes (the “Unsecured Notes”) due 23 February 2012, AED announces that Macquarie Equity Capital Markets Limited has exercised its option to purchase an additional US$10 million of Unsecured Notes (the “Option”).

The exercise of the Option increases the total size of the offering to US$85 million.

David Dix, chairman of AED, noted that “this is a further indication of the confidence the investor community has in the company”.
The additional funds will be used to further strengthen AED’s capital base and fund the assessment and development of the Puffin Oil Field through securing long lead items for the drilling of three wells in late 2007, the reprocessing of seismic data and for general corporate purposes.
 
Late ASX ann today to restate oil reserves

AED 5:35 PM NWE: Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693685

15th February 2007
Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
Norwest provides reference to the latest reserve upgrades in the Puffin Oilfield
issued by the AED Oil Limited (AED) in an ASX announcement dated 13th February 2007.

In the announcement, AED quotes an Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) range for the NE2 area of 11 to 30 million barrels, which when added to the previously quoted OIIP volume of 90 million barrels for the area called NE1, increases the total field OIIP volumes to a range of 101 to 120 million barrels.

Norwest has made a simple calculation based on an oil price of US$50 per barrel, a recovery factor of 44% (taken from AED’s estimate for the NE1 area), the average of the OIIP range quoted for NE2, and Norwest’s 1.25% over-riding royalty as follows:

NE1 Reserves 90 OIIP Million barrels
40 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)

NE2 Reserves average (and range) 20.5 (11-30) OIIP Million barrels
9 (5-13) reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Total NE1 & NE2 Reserves 110.5 OIIP Million barrels
49 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Value of Norwest 1.25% Royalty @US$50/ barrel AU$41 million

This is an increase over the AU$33 million previously calculated for the NE1 area alone.

Norwest would encourage the reader to access the full version of AED’s ASX
release via the ASX website: www.asx.com.au. AED Oil’s code is AED.
 
bigdog said:
Late ASX ann today to restate oil reserves

AED 5:35 PM NWE: Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00693685

15th February 2007
Puffin Oilfield Reserves Update
Norwest provides reference to the latest reserve upgrades in the Puffin Oilfield
issued by the AED Oil Limited (AED) in an ASX announcement dated 13th February 2007.

In the announcement, AED quotes an Oil Initially in Place (OIIP) range for the NE2 area of 11 to 30 million barrels, which when added to the previously quoted OIIP volume of 90 million barrels for the area called NE1, increases the total field OIIP volumes to a range of 101 to 120 million barrels.

Norwest has made a simple calculation based on an oil price of US$50 per barrel, a recovery factor of 44% (taken from AED’s estimate for the NE1 area), the average of the OIIP range quoted for NE2, and Norwest’s 1.25% over-riding royalty as follows:

NE1 Reserves 90 OIIP Million barrels
40 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)

NE2 Reserves average (and range) 20.5 (11-30) OIIP Million barrels
9 (5-13) reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Total NE1 & NE2 Reserves 110.5 OIIP Million barrels
49 reserves (based on 44% recovery factor *note that AED indicate this could increase)


Value of Norwest 1.25% Royalty @US$50/ barrel AU$41 million

This is an increase over the AU$33 million previously calculated for the NE1 area alone.

Norwest would encourage the reader to access the full version of AED’s ASX
release via the ASX website: www.asx.com.au. AED Oil’s code is AED.
Beats me why NWE didn't release the AED ann. yesterday. But this puts the value of the AED held reserves at well over $4 billion. That's pretty impressive, and very conservative, especially considering that is set at $50 a barrel, and AED is hedged at around $70. Mind boggling that the SP has not really moved for either NWE or AED on this. I managed to top up on NWE yesterday on a dip, because it is bound to move sooner or later. They both seem to be an obvious buy to me. Both have enormous potential and enormous reserves. Staggering that they are still at the prices they are.
 
Top