AED - AED Oil

[laurie]

AED Oil Limited
ACN 110 393 292
PO Box 18199
COLLINS STREET EAST VIC 8003
AUSTRALIA
ASX Announcement
3 April 2007
AC/L6
Puffin-8 Strikes Oil
Drilling Progress Report No 6
Puffin-8 has penetrated the first of three mapped highs (refer to figure below), encountering the top of the oil bearing LK1a reservoir at 2022.8 metres True Vertical Depth (TVD), approximately one metre higher than at Puffin-7. The well has subsequently drilled on a nearly horizontal trajectory, 9 degrees from vertical, covering an oil bearing interval of more than 73 metres to date, measured along the well. An initial penetration was made as a “pilot hole”, which was used to better delineate the mapped structure. Accordingly, the present well trajectory will be referred to as Puffin-8 ST1.
Upon completing the drilling of the first high, the planned well track is expected to encounter a small mapped low, similar to Puffin-7, before penetrating the second of three mapped highs, with additional mapped oil bearing formation. The third high targeted is north of the oil bearing Puffin-1 well.
Puffin North East Depth Map, April 2007

$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

I don't think this could have been any better for NWE or AED.

I'm no geologist or engineer, but it sounds as if everything went almost exactly to plan. Am I right? What's the prediction of a gap up tomorrow?

 

[laurie]

Strange market don't think so

cheers laurie

 

[Tye]

So much 4 the stong move expected today. Even with the 60+ rise in All Ords didnt help this out. Very disappointed. What has to happen to this share to break out of its consolidation? Lets hope the last Hr can produce something today.

 

[laurie]

It will be like this until they become a producer treading water till then the oil found has already been factored into the sp

cheers laurie

 

[Tye]

This share must be running purerly of Fundementals due to the fact it does not follow the large bullish moves we have been having (damn).

 

[chops_a_must]

Interesting announcement out tonight. Not sure if it is negative or positive, but I think it is positive.

Puffin-8 Intersects More Than 200 Metres
of Oil Bearing Formation
Drilling Progress Report No 7
The Puffin-8 ST1 well has delineated three mapped highs, intersecting 232 metres of net oil bearing sand (with tops revised after running gyro measurement). Most of the well was drilled as a horizontal trajectory, with vertical depth control to maximize potential producing intervals.

The latter part of the well was used to appraise the oil bearing structure and the regional Oil Water Contact (OWC) which was confirmed as 2034.1 metres after penetrating the contact. A number of pressure measurements were made to confirm the regional continuity of oil bearing sands.

Overall, drilling conditions encountered have been more difficult than expected. Accordingly the Company has decided to complete the well as the second oil producer at this point in time, rather than continuing with additional appraisal drilling.

The geological results from the well will need to be integrated with earlier mapping to produce an updated model of the Puffin NE1 area and to enable the calculation of oil volumes.

The Puffin-8 well will now be completed and flow tested prior to connection to the subsea manifold as part of the Phase 1A installation process for the Puffin Oil Field.

A point of confusion for me lies in the 232m of oil bearig sands. It says in the spudding ann that the minimum horizontal drilling would be a minimum of 250m

Puffin-8 is the second development well targeting the main Puffin North East structure (NE1). The subsea location of the well is 310m south of Puffin-7. The well is again planned as a horizontal well, reaching the reservoir (LK1a sand) at approximately 2045m TVD RT (True Vertical Depth from Rotary Table). The horizontal section would be a minimum of approximately 250m. The well is expected to reach a minimum measured depth of at least 2920m RT, with a maximum of around 3800m RT. After completing the well, a short flow test will follow to ensure well integrity. The total time for drilling and completion of the well is estimated to be 42 days, assuming no downtime for weather or other reasons, with an estimated completion date of 29 March.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070219/pdf/00694463.pdf

I'm assuming that that is the total distance expected of the horizontal drilling and not of the oil bearing sands. If so, one would suspect that they drilled further than the 250m to attain those results. So the difficulty in drilling is counteracted by the potentially larger than expected pay dirt.

I guess we wont know until tomorrow, and or the next announcement which will be vital.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[laurie]

Chops
Has to break this resistance $5

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

And the market didn't like it. Yet, NWE seems to be looking very strong. Fun and games right now.

 

[laurie]

What they did not like is the mention of WATER

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

What they did not like is the mention of WATER

cheers laurie

No, this is a good thing as it defines the limits of the field.

 

[Tye]

Hate to be negative, but i'm not a fan of this share anymore. that $5 resistance level has halted any positive rise in price and maybe the market has factored in all this and $5 is the new high's. Has anyone got any ideas of how this share will perform over the next few months/yrs.

 

[laurie]

Hate to be negative, but i'm not a fan of this share anymore. that $5 resistance level has halted any positive rise in price and maybe the market has factored in all this and $5 is the new high's. Has anyone got any ideas of how this share will perform over the next few months/yrs.

Tye it must be time for you to sell I think

cheers laurie

 

[chops_a_must]

Haha... squeelers.

 

[resourceboom]

News out....

Drilling Progress Report No. 8 for Puffin-8 Lower Well Completed

Puffin-8 well completion is making good progress, with the lower horizontal
completion run and pressure tested for good mechanical integrity.
Two separate zones have been completed with 6 5/8 inch screens. The plan is to next run the upper completion inside the casing before pulling the Blow Out Preventer (BOP) and installing the Sub -sea Tree.
The expectation is to flow the well during the last week of April, and to pull anchors nd demobilize the rig around the end of the month or early May 2007.

... I'm unlikely to go any good in the April tipping comp on this one, maybe may would have been a better choice of month!

 

[spottygoose]

Thanks to Bazza from SS for the following:

from upstreamonline.com

AED gears up for Puffin production

By Upstream staff


Australia's AED Oil has said it expects to start production at the Puffin North West field off northwestern Australia at around 30,000 barrels per day in July and plans to drill three appraisal wells at Puffin South West to confirm reserve levels there by the end of the year.

The floating production, storage and offloading vessel Front Puffin is expected to commence sea trials by early June, while work is progressing on a sub-sea installation and a manifold for two development wells at Puffin North East, AED’s managing director Ken Tregonning said.

Reserves in Puffin NW currently total 40 million barrels, with oil-in-place at Puffin SW assessed at 65 million barrels with expectations that comparable recoveries of 45% to 70% will be achieved there.

"We are looking at a target of 100 million barrels of reserves by the middle of 2008," Tregonning told Platts, noting that six more significant prospects needed to be drilled.

One of these, Tadpole-Frog, could potentially be larger than the Puffin discoveries, he said.

A number of different options are being assessed for development of Puffin SW, including a tie-back to Puffin NE, about 10 kilometres away, depending on recoverable reserves.

The best case scenario is a standalone development based on the proving up of high recovery levels, Trengonning said.

Meanwhile, AED's chairman David Dix told Platts that corporate activity would be totally focused on Puffin and the surrounding area for another three to five years before the company looks to Asia for further growth.

 

[Tye]

AED had some large maybe "corporate" buying come into the market on the
20th of this month. It may be just large private investors but either way, hopefully some sort of buying has come into this share. This does not happen to often (large buyers) but historicaly a rise has taken place around 1 month after this. I dont hold this share now but in the near future..maybe.

 

[gunditrader]

I have a small holding in both AED and NWE. ATM I believe AED currently has way more upside potential than NWE.
AED Enterprise value ~ 750m fully diluted
I get a NPV of just over $2 billion on my calcs.
Using 10.5 m bopa @ US$50 for 6 years
Annual Op ex of $100m and a discount rate of 10%.
So close to production, surely risks will be minimal from here. the market has to rerate this guy soon. Looking at topping up considering the current timeline.

 

[laurie]

The risk the market is factoring into the sp is that AED has only a single project one large cyclone can cause AED untold damage so there is nothing to fall back onto IMHO they need other projects or JV to spread the risk factor over several fileds in different locations

cheers laurie

 

[resourceboom]

I agree more with gunditrader's valuation, and think that the risk of a cyclone to the target is minor, and even with a cyclone they would probably halt production for a month or so, so they produce approx 9 million barrels instead of 10, so what. Chance of major damage minimal.

I think the market will rerate this once production starts and they prove they can hit their 10 million barrel target per year.

The risk the market is factoring into the sp is that AED has only a single project one large cyclone can cause AED untold damage so there is nothing to fall back onto IMHO they need other projects or JV to spread the risk factor over several fileds in different locations

cheers laurie