ADI - Adelphi Energy

[nioka]

If most of the value is in Sugarloaf why is AUT today at 55c, EKA the same with a much smaller interest, while ADI is 88c and has reached 90c. Time to sell ADI and switch to AUT again? Trading back and forth has been good so far on these. ????????? any suggestions? Is ARQ a good buy at $1.40 on the same basis?

 

[Agentm]

sorry to say dukey i still am thirsty for it.. bought again today, last time this year i feel, and fully expect, and dont care either, to see a fall. The volume i feel is the reason for the rise and not on the announcements. There was a road show recently so i think the investors are coming in at the moment. I have more in reserve for later, if things go real low in january then i will be back.. i know others are like me ready to pounce if the sp goes south too much.. plenty of things in the next 4 weeks will give the share alift, and not much downside to the share as far as i can see, keeping in mind i am more than confident on the primary and 100% on the secondary. still happy at todays prices to allow for the short term ups and downs, and as the price is steady at the moment on the .90 area i imagine it may settle thereabouts.. but expect higher if the volumes are maintained

the volume is definately on the adi stock and AUT is very undervalued i would think. But ADI has the spare cash (14 mill?)and NT on the run, so maybe a little of the rise is in the knowlege they dont need to go to the market in the short term and the others have to go immediately as the development of the secondary and the primary is going to be pretty massive in size and numbers of rigs.. So perhaps the AUT price reflects lack of confidence due to tight cashflow, but none the less i see it as value for those who like the stock. i have my own views on AUT and EKA being the same directors and on the same well, so i cant invest that way, but plenty can make gains with careful and clever movements.

I wonder how different the NT boys will be compared to the luxury of having a crew like we had on sugarloaf?? time will tell..

homer. i cleared my mail,,sorry about that

 

[Agentm]

Extract from mpex daily 4th Dec..

Hope for gas production as partners

move to test Sugarloaf

Adelphi and fellow listed partners Eureka and Aurora have been sufficiently encouraged by the information seen to date at the ultra deep Sugarloaf-1 well on the Texas Gulf Coast to justify throwing extra funds to the tune of US$2mil into the kitty for further evaluation procedures.

Open hole logs over a 1189m interval from 5182m to the total depth of 6371m indicates that a 27.4m gas saturated interval in the primary Hosston target could possibly be capable of sustaining production after frac stimulation.

The next step for the JV, operated by Texas Crude Energy, is to complete the well prior to contracting a smaller unit to fracture and flow test the logged zone to determine commerciality.

Whether the potential 28m of gas shows encountered in the shallower target, which had pre-drill estimates of 12mil bbls oil or 72BCF gas, will be production tested will be decided after outcomes of the deeper tests are known.

Sugarloaf spudded on Aug 18 and has taken 108 days to reach the massive TD of +6300m plus run and interpret wireline logs. The original prognosed time for the well to hit TD was early Nov - a month less than what has actually played out.

Regardless of the outcome at the giant 800BCF- 4.3TCF Sugarloaf well, Adelphi has moved seamlessly into another US drill with a new look JV team, this time including listed party Antares Energy, to spud another onshore well in Wharton County Texas.

The Isle-1 well on the New Taiton prospect could seem like a baby compared to Sugarloaf, with estimated reserve targets up to 100BCF and averaging 40BCF in a number of stacked sands.

However, offsetting the lesser reserves target, is the fact that the drill is considered low risk, with the trap clearly defined on 3D seismic and the well to be tapping into a proven gas producing horizon.

Isle-1 will take around 60-days given a good run to penetrate the Wilcox B and C sands on its way to the proposed TD of 5270m. Fields only 10km away from the site that have been completed in the same target zone are producing gas at rates around 5-8MMcfd and contain reserves around 25BCF. The New Taiton JV, where Adelphi and Antares each hold a 25% interest, is headed by S. Lavon Evans Operating Company holding 30%, with locals Index Oil & Gas and private parties holding the remainder.

Not one to keep all its eggs in one zip code, Adelphi will be undertaking a much larger exploration operation next year in its acreage onshore Yemen, where the company holds an 8.5% interest in Oil Search-operated Blocks 7 & 74. PSA’s over the two areas were finalised by the government during last quarter, with the JV now awaiting formal execution of the permits which is expected to occur early next year.

Once formally awarded, the partners will commence the exploration phase in blocks, including seismic acquisition starting mid next year, and a program of seven wells targeting the Qishn and Saar sandstones or their equivalents kicking off in 2008.

A positive indicator in the interim is that OMV has started the development of its Al Nilam and Habban oil discoveries, which are only a few kms from Block 7. Al Nilam is expected to come onstream at an initial rate of 11,000BOPD, and the development of these fields means there is now production and pipeline infrastructure close by should a discovery be made in Adelphi and Oil Search’s Block 7.

Adelphi was trading up $0.025 at $0.615 on volumes just over 1mil while Sugarloaf partner Eureka was up $0.01 at $0.56 (+272,000) and Aurora was down $0.035 at $0.53 (+195,000).

New Taiton participant Antares was up $0.025 at $0.675 (+529,000) in the hours after the announcements.

you have probably seen it all, no real news in it

seems the news is spreading to all a whole new group of investors, and buying in is definately been on the agenda.

interesting that adi considers it a low risk well and antares in their investor presentation consider it medium risk in their profile..

all quiet on the western front in any case..

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

ADI ..... a gap-up, with sustained volume last week,
was very encouraging ... especially as the next
positive time cycle falls into place tomorrow .....

11122006 ... significant and positive - finances (???)

22122006 ... positive spotlight on ADI

27122006 ... more positive news, expected here.


15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

16012007 ... short rally here ???

19012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

26-29012007 ... major and negative cycle here
- finance-related ???

02022007 ... significant and negative news expected.

19022007 ... negative spotlight on ADI

21022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

26022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
on the boil in December 2007.

More later.

happy days

yogi

=====

Hi folks,

ADI ..... as per post above, we will be alert for some
positive news over the next couple of days .....

happy days

yogi



=====

 

[Agentm]

yogi. i dont think your predictions will be accurate in the coming months at all,, i see only very large upsides from this point on..

can you do some predictions on the directors of EKA? whether they will learn anytime soon how to announce a oil column properly and to how to properly and adequately announce finds in a manner that will not shock their SP by 20%... in a single day..

good management practices can make a huge difference to the sp..

I cant believe the differences between the wild predictions and guesses EKA gave out on the 18th and the ones they gave yesterday.. I dont like it one bit when directors behave that way.. the announcement on the 18th need not have been made, as they were guessing and very very misleading and the one yesterday has definately been watered down to make a very bad situation still look promising, when infact it may have been from the begining a case of not much to show at all.

I see AUT has already gone to the market to raise capital, EKA will soon have to do the same, it concerns me what impact those SP's will have now on the ADI sp..

in the next few weeks we get a the announcement of the workover rig and then perhaps some news on the gas shows at new tiaton. It will be soon after that the flow tests will be announced and the long awaited announcement of the discovery. Some newbies like eka can go all hype and announce with fanfare all sorts of promising finds, but you can immediately see how well contained the ADI sp is to the reality of the situation compared to what happens when you hype things and announce oil columns that are not there..

 

[tomcat]

I see AUT has already gone to the market to raise capital, EKA will soon have to do the same, it concerns me what impact those SP's will have now on the ADI sp..

Agentm,

How do you think AUT's SP will fare if there is a signicant discovery at Sugarloaf factoring in the capital raising? Hartley's base ADI's SP at $4.5 based on a 800bcf commercial find. Have you seen any figures for AUT?

Cheers

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well todays West Australian claiming Petsec have intersected 6.1m of gas with up too 400bcf so ADI has 28m of gas in main target where does that leave ADI in terms of gas found ?
I know all situations differ porosity etc etc but make it all sound promising

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well todays West Australian claiming Petsec have intersected 6.1m of gas with up too 400bcf so ADI has 28m of gas in main target where does that leave ADI in terms of gas found ?
I know all situations differ porosity etc etc but make it all sound promising

Sorry guys re read article I'm totally wrong on my last post 5bcf too 7bcf of gas targeted so I should get my research right

 

[stiger]

Sorry guys re read article I'm totally wrong on my last post 5bcf too 7bcf of gas targeted so I should get my research right

Trying to give me a fright Lucky_Country? seriously though why has the thread gone so quiet? Is it fear ? or just hols.Cheers

 

[EEE]

:

Trying to give me a fright Lucky_Country? seriously though why has the thread gone so quiet? Is it fear ? or just hols.Cheers

Hi stiger,

I think that its just a case of not having much to talk about. ADI looks like it has been constructing a pennant formation after the highs of November with some exciting gains followed by counter trends which aren't terribly exciting unless you want to top up on your holdings.

With prelim results for New Taition due later in the month and production testing results for SL early Feb, I'd think this thread will start buzzing again once some announcements are made.

But until then all we can do is keep the faith

 

[cicak_kupang]

I agree with you both Stiger and eee,the thread has gone quiet, cos of xmas and the new year holiday. I think people let things go a little as you spend more time catching up with friends and familly.
I have re read the entire thread from start and copy and pasted all the hi lights and positive and negative points, and facts etc.... Its a nice quick referal base to go back and look at.
The sp may flounder a bit in the first half of this month but i'm sure have more interest in the secong half, as N.T comes to a close and we get to know more about SL.
Dont be dis heartened about the quietness of the thread, nothing has changed, this is an AWESOME STOCK! Patience and you will be rewarded

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well with no news I think the sp has stood quite strong and is near the top of its trading
Looking forward too SL results for the main target followed by secondaries although would like an update on whats happening with the rig
New Taiton the are very confident of lmost a cetainty too be commercial so all in all should be a good 1st half

 

[barney]

Well with no news I think the sp has stood quite strong and is near the top of its trading
Looking forward too SL results for the main target followed by secondaries although would like an update on whats happening with the rig
New Taiton the are very confident of lmost a cetainty too be commercial so all in all should be a good 1st half

I agree. The SP has done well to hold its ground. I think this shows that the majority of holders are now on board for the longer haul (assuming reasonable news). I was expecting a quicker pullback to around 75 cents (I'd like to top up ). Might still get that as the last of the impatient sellers drop off over the next week or so, but I'm doubtful.

I've got an interesting story on sugarloaf cabbages, but I'm not telling it till the SP hits $2 ............. I hope I get to tell the story soon!!! Good Luck all, Barney.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Have been seeing red all day apart from ADI.
Looking good with no apparent news

 

[EEE]

Have been seeing red all day apart from ADI.
Looking good with no apparent news

How ya going Lucky_Country

I've been watching market depth for the past couple of weeks and a lot of buyers have been building up with some signicant sized orders. Luckily for us there haven't been a hell of a lot of sellers (wonder why )

I think that today might just have been buyers taking the plunge and not nescessarily a sign of any imminent announcement.

Anyway, that just my , I've been wrong many times before.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well announcements are iminnent with SL and NT just an earlier rise than expected.
Confidence in ADI has slowly built up and everyone thinking SL will be commercial has got very few wanting too sell and only 90 million too sell at the momment

 

[maverick11]

It's been a while since i posted here simply because for me it's a matter of waiting now. Things are still on track, apart from the delays at New Taiton. The SP has held up better than I expected and it is nice to see today ADI is the shining light in a sea of red!!

 

[Jimmy001]

Well announcements are iminnent

I'm sure announcements are imminent. In fact looking back through past announcements I would say whoever is in charge of making announcements at ADI really enjoys his job.

Don't hold but good luck to those that do.

 

[tomcat]

Don't hold but good luck to those that do.

Why the 'Don't hold' recommendation Jimmy? Can you let us know the reasons behind your position.

 

[Jimmy001]

My bad, I meant "I don't hold"...

Although I will add that most of its other breakouts were accompanied by a lot more vol than recently seen.. They have made a lot of anns in the past to the point where its like they're ramping themselves (e.g. like 5 in a day), which maybe has tired out the speculators a bit? I'm just trying to play devils advocate here I don't have an opinion either way! Thoughts for either side are always appreciated