Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ADI - Adelphi Energy

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just thought I'd add when I was involved in fracing underground coal seams (for methane drainage), when we finally got underground to mine them they would fall apart like powdered snow. SL is different from this, but i still maintain a high level of confidence. It's not uncommon to frac wells as deep as this one, in fact it would have been unusual if they didn't need to. Also remember, there are plenty of wells around as deep as SL which are producing, so nothing out of the ordinary here as far as i'm concerned. Just have to wait for the results now. :)
 
Lets not get too excited here chaps. If we have learnt anything from ADI it's to be calm and patient. Nobody is doubting this is a good prospect but we could sit around debating future sp prices all day and it would get us nowhere. I'm not too scientific with my trading just yet but I know what makes a good business and the fundamentals of this company are very good. Sound management, solid cashflow, experienced partners, good future projects and a clear vision of where they want to be and how they intend to get there. How high the price goes and how long it takes is anybodies guess. This is the stockmarket and anything can happen... and frequently does! I daytraded this stock in the 30c-50c bracket and was well happy. When it hit 90c I took a closer look and bought back in between 60-80c and am holding indefinitely now but I don't want to make any predictions.

A couple of other things though. If announcements are not being made that are market sensitive or potentially the friendly folk at the ASX will be watching and asking questions. Also, my experience tells me when you shoot over budget by as much as these guys just did you better be damn sure you're onto something...
 
Just thought i'd give a brief insight into fracturing. Typically water with a high viscosity additive (or sometimes diesel) is pumped down the well in bursts of extreme pressure. This opens up small fractures in the rock extending for up to 200ft. They usually use a propping agent such as sand which is pumped down with the fluids and holds the fractures open once the high pressure fluids are released. Another more recent method which I don't know much about involves using combustible propellants to open up fractures. I doubt they would be using this method however.
 
sandybeachs said:
so you didn't take some money off the table when it hit a high 94cents then back to 57cents..????..LOL

regardS
Click to expand...

Hey Sandy. If you can pick the highs and lows of a stock please tell us the next ones LOL. Long termers also have capital gains implications to consider if they can avoid selling for a year.....

cheers
 
1. Sugarloaf 1 Well (Adelphi 20% interest)

[font=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]
Since our last report on 4 December 2006, 5 inch production liner has been successfully set and cemented at 19,791 feet (6,034 metres) and has been tied back into the casing at 17,000 feet (5,183 metres). The drilling rig is presently laying down drill pipe.
​
[/font]2. New Taiton Prospect (Adelphi 25% interest)

[font=Century Gothic,Century Gothic]
The Ilse-1 well spudded on 1 December 2006 (local time) and is currently drilling ahead at a depth of 1,960 feet (598 metres). Planned total depth is 17,300 feet (5,274 metres).
​
ASX releases will continue to be made routinely every Wednesday unless there are material matters which require an earlier release.

[/font]
Ilse is going ahead nicely, and laying down drill pipe..

I think the steady gains yesterday is an indication of just how many grandmothers were sold recently to get on this stock.

ADI had stated the $1 price for thier share is fair value, so i expect the bullish sentiment on that price alone speaks highly of what they think about sugarloaf. To me it is in no way an outlandish short term stop point whilst in transition.

ADI have it in mind to pump up the value of their share.. as an investor i know what that means..

for me the announcements are as they should be and indicate still a very positive and bullish sentiment on the primary, with the secondary being completely ignored for the time being.. yet on all presentations the secondary was always talked up the most.. if you do a little research and think it through a little and you will understand more about the real bullish sentiment on the primary and why the very very prospective secondary cannot be currently tested... thats it.. no more hints.. i have said enough..
 
i dont know how to say this sandy, but i find your preoccupation with me a touch fanatical and very disconcerting.. if you want to place personal messages on the boards . i may suggest using the pm facility, you have done this before to me, but in all your pm's you have never been bold enough to ask me who i am, perhaps you would be equally disturbed if someone was hell bent on determining your identity. it concens me that you are doing so.. and why so pubically?? take what i am saying quite seriously sandy and desist from enquiry about my personal details!!!

re the austin chalks, i am posting what eka announced on the 31st july 06

A recent gas-condensate discovery by competitors has

been made in one of these shallower limestones within a few kilometers of

the Sugarloaf well location. Seismic and nearby old well data suggests

that the discovery is likely to extend into Eureka’s ground. Note that

Eureka holds 100% of the deep lease rights below the Sligo Formation and

holds lease rights to targets shallower than the Sligo Formation over

approximately 30% of the prospect area.
​
 it shows me how competative the secondary is and the reasons for the JVP's announcements of them in the manner they have been put out. Texas is highly competative and the value of the secondary is beyond any doubt very very understated accross the board for very very sound reasons.. signing acerage is highly compatative and complex business in texas.. The JVP's have announced the play and done everything within the rules of the asx, its just for a layman very hard to see the language of success in the highly sanitised and very conservative announcements.

I remain convinced the chalks hold spectacular reserves, and remain very convinced and as bullish on the primary as ADI currently are.
 
How long is it likely to be before a smaller rig is sourced and moved on to the SL site? I understand that there are plenty of these smaller rigs available, and when are we likly to see flow testing do you guys think??? Hope it doesn't hold things up too much... :cautious:
 
i would say the timing of the workover rig will be announced shortly, cant imagine the rigs will be many months away,, If TCO are on the ball they will have something available to them pretty soon.

I see adi are coming your way in the near future, you will be able to visit the site and give us site reports!!!
 
hi guys

elephant rampers on the loose..

i'd like to see a few back up their claims with some real hard facts rather than quoting from presentations..

regards
 
I don't normally post in these threads as stocks are not my forte except for the big blues .... however, this thread caught my interest in between waiting for the SPI to move. As a long term holder of ADI ... been one of those put it in the bottom drawer speckys .... I'm interested in all your comments made so far.
If I can be a P-I-T-B (pain in the uknowwhere!) ... could you learned tech savvy traders in oil/gas give 1/2 a dozen points (more if you like) on the pros to hold ADI. And for the against case .... can someone give a similar number of points for selling now. Keen to hear the two cases .... cheers.
 
Euler said:
I don't normally post in these threads as stocks are not my forte except for the big blues .... however, this thread caught my interest in between waiting for the SPI to move. As a long term holder of ADI ... been one of those put it in the bottom drawer speckys .... I'm interested in all your comments made so far.
If I can be a P-I-T-B (pain in the uknowwhere!) ... could you learned tech savvy traders in oil/gas give 1/2 a dozen points (more if you like) on the pros to hold ADI. And for the against case .... can someone give a similar number of points for selling now. Keen to hear the two cases .... cheers.
Click to expand...

hi euler

StockAnalysis report yesterday hit the nail on the head, conservative and immediately achievable initial target of just 120 Bcfe.from both the shallow and deeper zones,

although he does consider 800bcfe possible if the P.T comes in..

my "conservative" share price based upon being successful at Sugarloaf & New Taiton approx $1.80.

as usual take care

regards
 
hey euler

i cant help you on the points as the sharp pointy bit on the chart is kinda going north too much to worry about it...

i have exhausted myself looking for any negatives on the share, and to discount the well, and to discount its announcements, and as everything has unfolded the fact is now that its going onto flow testing. i cant find anything to say the well isnt a success, i have the bullish sentiment of a long term investor who is extremely happy with the progress so far. if you asked me if you should hold or sell,,i would buy them from you..

the share seems to be getting upward motion on the potential of a positive flow test. Add in a few positive reports on new taiton on the way through the next weeks, it all seems to add to the possibilty the sp may hold on to its gains a lot more than before.. thats what i hope for.. in the beginings of a transition to producer, so hold on as the share takes you on a nice journey..

Good pick as a specky i would say, well done.. all imho
 
cicak_kupang said:
How long is it likely to be before a smaller rig is sourced and moved on to the SL site? I understand that there are plenty of these smaller rigs available, and when are we likly to see flow testing do you guys think??? Hope it doesn't hold things up too much... :cautious:
Click to expand...

Stock Analysis states fraccing in Jan so rig has been sourced I guess.



"Adelphi Energy Activity
Arc currently has a 26.3% shareholding Adelphi Energy, and this will increase to 30% when it converts its 8.75m 25c options in January 2007.

Adelphi represents a high leverage explorer with current exposure to projects in the US, Yemen and Australia. In the near term the focus is on Texas where the company appears to have achieved commercial success at Sugarloaf and has commenced drilling of New Taiton.

Adelphi has a 20% interest in the recently completed Sugarloaf 1 well. This was a very deep (+6,000m) well that encountered two potentially commercial gas horizons. The deeper Hosston zone was estimated as a large 800 BCF target (pre drill) and an aggregate of 27m of gas saturated intervals were encountered. In addition a potential pay zone of 28m was encountered in a shallower section of the well.

There is a good probability of achieving a positive commercial outcome from the well. This will be determined by late January, with fraccing of the Hosston proposed for early-mid January, followed by production testing.

Adelphi has a 25% interest in the recently spudded New Taiton well, testing a 40 BCF target. The drilling is scheduled to reach the target around late January and management rate this as a lower risk prospect and are indicating a 50% probability of success."
 
Hartleys value this at 1.63

And potentially 7.10 if everything goes well.

Amazing.

Good luck for holders.

First I have seen them and up a lazy 10 percent.
 
Hartleys latest update...nothing new however except further encouragement for the bulls
 

Attachments

  • ADI_20061208[1].pdf
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New week for ADI amongst others.

Whats expected this week. Will we get any news or are a we few weeks off for any price sensitive information.
 
:)

Hi folks,

ADI ..... a gap-up, with sustained volume last week,
was very encouraging ... especially as the next
positive time cycle falls into place tomorrow ..... :)

11122006 ... significant and positive - finances (???)

22122006 ... positive spotlight on ADI

27122006 ... more positive news, expected here.


15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

16012007 ... short rally here ???

19012007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

26-29012007 ... major and negative cycle here
- finance-related ???

02022007 ... significant and negative news expected.

19022007 ... negative spotlight on ADI

21022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

26022007 ... minor and difficult cycle.

..... looking further ahead, ADI should be really
on the boil in December 2007.

More later.

happy days

yogi

:)

=====

.
 

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