ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

if you look at this post from saf, there is a slide that pioneer puts out that clearly shows the oil | oil/condensate | dry gas zones

the third slide here,, that slide where it says oil/condensate.. thats adi acreages

azz holders should take note of their position, its clear their acreages are different to the likes of petrohawk, conoco, tcei/adi murphy and weber.. a point very much not liked by them.. but azz will in all likelihood face the issues of the likes of eog and dan hughes, where results are not clear yet from the wells drilled so far..



courtesy saf

Pioneer FBR Capital markets Investor Presentation Dec 1 , 2009.

Second permanent rig allocated to the programme. Also examining a JV which is clearly the way to proceed in view of the vastness of the discovery.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9MzYwODMwfENoaWxkSUQ9MzU0MDYyfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

[gerkin02]

Agentm,
some solid research again.well done.

If you look at Petrohawks presentation at where they deliniate the eagle ford shale,their boundaries and segregations of the different hydrocarbons vary significantly from Pioneers.

El-Paso also has a different interpretation.

I dont know if anyone has a real handle on the size and/or distribution of the eagle ford shale.

I am assuming Halliburton has done many of horizontal fracs on producing eagle ford wells.They would probably have more idea than most.

I dont believe the edwards reef trend has any significance to the eagle ford shale other than running roughly parallel with it.

In my opinion it will be years still until a boundary of the play itself is determined and also the segregation of hydocarbon types.

2010 will certainly go a long way to opening the play up.

It was interesting to note in Pioneers latest presentation that the liquid richness in much of the eagle ford thus far,make it appear to be economically superior to almost any other shale play to date.

All the best.

 

[noirua]

Apologies for interrupting this busiest of threads on ASF. I need to draw your attention to a best forum vote at The Bull. ASFs vote has been in sharp decline from 48% and ASF desperately needs your vote at: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums

Thanks!

 

[adobee]

so much information from the public yet so little from the company. ..
I wonder if we will see anything about the fracs pre christmas or if everyone will be packing up for festive season very shortly..

 

[Agentm]

Agentm,
some solid research again.well done.

If you look at Petrohawks presentation at where they deliniate the eagle ford shale,their boundaries and segregations of the different hydrocarbons vary significantly from Pioneers.

El-Paso also has a different interpretation.

I dont know if anyone has a real handle on the size and/or distribution of the eagle ford shale.

I am assuming Halliburton has done many of horizontal fracs on producing eagle ford wells.They would probably have more idea than most.

I dont believe the edwards reef trend has any significance to the eagle ford shale other than running roughly parallel with it.

In my opinion it will be years still until a boundary of the play itself is determined and also the segregation of hydocarbon types.

2010 will certainly go a long way to opening the play up.

It was interesting to note in Pioneers latest presentation that the liquid richness in much of the eagle ford thus far,make it appear to be economically superior to almost any other shale play to date.

All the best.

cant agree at all

i think your underestimating the knowledge and the years pioneer have been in the region. they know the region very well, they understand the cretacious eagleford and edwards very well.. so far they have been accurate throughout on how they think the play looking. i think you may have misread petrohawk and their reasons for only drilling and leasing south of the edwards reef. surely its no coincidence??

there are no massive drilling programs in that oil corridor in mcmullen other than what azz is proposing. eog is drilling along it and getting their interpretations of it, and we know dan hughes got darlene to produce at about 400 bopd just north of the adi acres in the karnes trough. so its getting interesting imho.. real early days in that region.. gerkin, dont you think there is any significance in the petrohawk strategy of keeping south of that reef in lasalle mcmullen and live oak? wouldnt you think that hayes horizontal indicated what was going on? imho the azz eagleford is very prospective future play in the oil corridor, and once technology is good enough in that corridor, it may be a lucrative play one day, but i equally believe there is not much known on how prospective all the acreages will be in that oil corridor.. other than what was learned in the hayes well.. its very early days and to interpret the azz acreages as similar to petrohawks as the azz spin, or perhaps your own spin on what azz is saying imho may well not necessarily equate with what the geology is going to deliver in that oil corridor.. but those hyped up announcements from azz are keeping the punters keen as anything imho..

so much information from the public yet so little from the company. ..
I wonder if we will see anything about the fracs pre christmas or if everyone will be packing up for festive season very shortly..

the jvp are waiting for the preparation to be finalised, there is nothing preventing a start on these laterals in the near term imho, all preparations on these laterals fall into line with previous announcements imho

 

[gerkin02]

In the next 3 months there will be significantly more data available in multiple locations about the eagle ford shale.

Now this data may not be publicly available(as has been the case in the past) although well and frac designs will incorporate the most relevent information pursuent to each area/well.

The companies performing the fracture stimulations are the wealth of knowledge about the play at this point.

all the best.

 

[Agentm]

conoco has approved their capital program for 2010, exploration into the eagleford is approved, which matches up with the local talk of many rigs moving in around january 2010....

keeping my money in the eagleford and i like the fact conoco see it as a part of their future,,


HOUSTON - ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) today approved a 2010 capital program of $11.2 billion, representing a 10 percent decrease from estimated 2009 expenditures. Approximately 86 percent of the capital program will be in support of the company’s Exploration and Production (E&P) segment, while the Refining and Marketing (R&M) segment represents about 12 percent of the program. The 2010 program is consistent with the company’s recently announced plan to improve returns through increased capital discipline, asset sales and continued growth in shareholder distributions.

“Our planned 2010 capital program will advance existing exploration and production projects, while preserving the potential to develop the company’s large resource position in the future,” said Jim Mulva, chairman and chief executive officer. “We intend to achieve our objectives of organically replacing reserves and increasing our upstream production from a reduced, more strategic asset base, consistent with our recently announced portfolio optimization plan.

“We look forward to discussing our 2010 capital, operating and financial plans in greater detail when we meet with the investment community next year.”

Exploration and Production

The 2010 capital program for E&P is approximately $9.7 billion, including capitalized interest of $0.5 billion and $0.7 billion for the company’s contributions to the FCCL business venture and loans to other affiliates. This program also includes about $1.4 billion for worldwide exploration.

In North America, the capital program is expected to total approximately $4.1 billion. Spending in North America is reduced, compared with prior years, with emphasis on the highest-graded production basins and opportunities.

* In the U.S. Lower 48, capital funding will be prioritized on oil and certain natural gas assets that offer the highest potential returns, including ongoing development in the San Juan and Permian basins and the Bakken, Lobo and Barnett trends.
* Spending in Canada will focus on existing oil sands projects and selective programs in the Western Canada gas basins, primarily on high-graded resource plays and on maintaining a substantial lease position for future development.
* Spending in Alaska is expected to be directed toward development of the existing Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields, as well as the Alpine field and satellites on the Western North Slope.

In Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, the E&P capital program is expected to total about $5.6 billion.

* Within the Asia Pacific region, funds will be used for further development of coalbed methane projects associated with the APLNG joint venture, as well as for the continued development of Bohai Bay in China, new fields offshore Malaysia, offshore Block B and onshore South Sumatra in Indonesia, and offshore Vietnam.
* In the North Sea region, spending is planned for existing and new opportunities in the Greater Ekofisk Area, the Greater Britannia fields, various Southern North Sea assets, and development of the Jasmine discovery in the J Block and the Clair Ridge project.
* Capital for the Middle East and Africa region is expected to be primarily directed toward completion of the Qatargas 3 project in Qatar, with remaining funds supporting onshore developments in Nigeria, Algeria and Libya.
* Spending in the Russia and Caspian Sea region will primarily support continued development of the Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea.

Exploration will be focused on finding significant resources, advancing high-potential opportunities and appraisal of recent discoveries. Spending on wildcat wells will be directed to the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Australia’s Browse Basin, Kazakhstan’s Block N, Canada’s East Coast, offshore Indonesia and the North Sea. The company also plans to progress exploration drilling in the Eagle Ford shale position in the U.S. Lower 48, a coal seam gas play in China, and a shale gas play in Poland.

Refining and Marketing

The 2010 capital program for R&M is approximately $1.3 billion, with about $0.9 billion for its U.S. downstream businesses and $0.4 billion for International R&M. These funds will be used for projects related to sustaining and improving the existing business with a focus on safety, regulatory compliance, and reliability. As previously announced, the refinery upgrade project in Wilhelmshaven has been delayed.

Emerging Businesses and Corporate

The 2010 capital program for Emerging Businesses and Corporate is approximately $0.2 billion. The majority of the Emerging Businesses funding is for completion of the second phase of an expansion project at the company’s Immingham Combined Heat and Power plant in the United Kingdom, as well as for other Technology Research and Development spending.

In Corporate, capital expenditures are expected to be primarily for global information systems and services projects and corporate facilities.

ConocoPhillips is an international, integrated energy company with interests around the world. For more information, go to www.conocophillips.com.

 

[choppy]

The Edwards Reef trend has no bearing on the makeup of the gas (dry versus wet), but it has a significant bearing on the thickness of the Eagleford. The Eagleford generally thickens at least 1.5x when you cross the reef. What effect the thickness will actually have on the EUR of the wells is yet to be determined.

In conventional reservoirs the thickness is directly proportional to the EUR, but in unconventional reservoirs it is more complicated than that due to the fact that you may or may not be draining the entire thickness of the reservoir.

 

[Agentm]

choppy, i am not convinced the azz acreages sit entirely in the condensate window, its very obvious that petrohawk have a distinct and deliberate preference for the acreages between the sligo and edwards reef. and are keeping a close watch on the acreages north of it... besides one horizontal near the azz wells, and the eog wells further north in mcmullen, its not entirely certain what the acreages are like, but imho there is a strong preference shown by petrohawk for the acreages, including the awp acreages they recently acquired at about $3000 an acre. i think its too early to determine what their region will achieve until there are some further wells drilled and extensive testing done to assess. i am sceptical on that part of the play being entirely in the condensate window myself, i tend to think the oil corridor has a potential to be prevalent in the northern aspect of mcmullen and perhaps as low as the edwards reef there.. what is very obvious in the azz acreages is that the eagleford appears to be a potentially active play.

this study is interesting in lavaca

http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/fritzetal/images/fritz-harris.pdf

also

Emerging Eagle Ford Shale In South Texas

This play is heating up more and more. It is larger than the active operators that are drilling the Eagle Ford are saying. It is not isolated only beneath the Edwards Reef trend in the downdip section. EOG and others are leasing in the middip and the updip section of the play. LaSalle, Mcmullen, and Atascosa are the three most active counties. There have been rumors that 2 wells have tested in the middip section of the play in excess of 1,600 BOPD with associated gas. This is the oil play for Texas.

Posted by Jurassic Exploration Inc on 14 September 2009

it seems to be active north of the reef and as pioneer points out, its trending towards an oil play the further north of the reef you travel

the pioneer slide imho demonstrates with fair accuracy the delineation between the dry gas window and the condensate window, particularly in the counties they are active in..


closer to home and east of the adi acreages in karnes county

pioneer put in their permit yesterday for the handy 1h well 1 mile south of bordovsky in the condensate window.

eog put in two further permits for the harper units a few miles north of bordovsky..

 

[choppy]

AgentM,

The reason petrohawk want to stay downdip of the edwards reef is due to thickness of the eagleford. They want to stay in the gas/condensate window, but also want to be in the thick. I do agree that the further updip (north/northwest of the edwards reef) you get, the more likely you are to be in the oil window. All of the wells EOG has drilled are in the oil window, along with the Dan Hughes wells, the new Dewbre Peeler well, and maybe even the Bordovsky well.

It is unknown where the line between the oil and the gas/condensate window lies in LaSalle and McMullen counties, but it is definitely updip of the edwards reefs and downdip of the austin chalk oil production in northern LaSalle. The line is probably somewhere around the EOG Hoff Ranch well. What kind of rates are you hearing about from the Bordovsky well now?

 

[Agentm]

not hearing anything on the rates, but its clear the well was flaring day and night as late as last week.

eog put in further permit for their peeler ranch 11h well in atascosa. dewbre petroleum commenced drilling their vertical test well on dec 1st a few miles south of them also called peeler ranch

the conoco plomero well in live oak ran some intermediate casing at 10,768 feet a few days back

interesting interview with petrohawk ceo..

INTERVIEW: Petrohawk CEO: Not Eager For JV With Majors,Buyout

petrohawk wants to capitalise on the shale..

also

HOUSTON, Dec. 3 -- Enterprise Products Partners LP expects to have its White Kitchen Lateral””a 62-mile, 16-in. OD natural gas pipeline that extends through the Eagle Ford shale in LaSalle and Webb Counties in Texas””in full service by the end of December.


day in day out the eagleford is being mentioned in the oil sector, from pipleine contructions, to cap ex forecasts by majors. market remains convinced adi is not in the money..

 

[jancha]

not hearing anything on the rates, but its clear the well was flaring day and night as late as last week.

eog put in further permit for their peeler ranch 11h well in atascosa. dewbre petroleum commenced drilling their vertical test well on dec 1st a few miles south of them also called peeler ranch

the conoco plomero well in live oak ran some intermediate casing at 10,768 feet a few days back

interesting interview with petrohawk ceo..

INTERVIEW: Petrohawk CEO: Not Eager For JV With Majors,Buyout

petrohawk wants to capitalise on the shale..

also

HOUSTON, Dec. 3 -- Enterprise Products Partners LP expects to have its White Kitchen Lateral””a 62-mile, 16-in. OD natural gas pipeline that extends through the Eagle Ford shale in LaSalle and Webb Counties in Texas””in full service by the end of December.


day in day out the eagleford is being mentioned in the oil sector, from pipleine contructions, to cap ex forecasts by majors. market remains convinced adi is not in the money..

Why do you think the market feels that ADI isn't in the money Agentm?

Interesting how this would have to be one of the most posted threads. So much interest in the company & yet very little interest in volume & movement.

 

[Agentm]

Why do you think the market feels that ADI isn't in the money Agentm?

Interesting how this would have to be one of the most posted threads. So much interest in the company & yet very little interest in volume & movement.

glad you appreciate the posts

the market values adi at about 10% success.. not a big endorsement of the play they are exploring.. and its obvious there is no belief that the conoco announcement yesterday to crank up the eagleford exploration in 2010 on their 300,000 acres - which sit either side of the adi acreages - validates any potential of the prospect.

the volume and movement was on the share some weeks back, this has stopped in the past weeks. its curious that adi traditionally turned over a lot of volume prior to operations commencing, i think with some of the jvp partners eka and aut getting overexcited and announcing mid november start times for the fracture stimulation of the 3 wells has caused some further disbelief

ground hog days continue on adi, i will post regional info and discuss adi as always, hope its not disturbing too many members on this forum..

good luck to all holders

 

[Adam A]

Thanks for the updates Agent

Ive jumped back in with a small holding(it owes me)

quite exciting waiting for news,heres hoping for great results in the future

 

[jancha]

glad you appreciate the posts

the market values adi at about 10% success.. not a big endorsement of the play they are exploring.. and its obvious there is no belief that the conoco announcement yesterday to crank up the eagleford exploration in 2010 on their 300,000 acres - which sit either side of the adi acreages - validates any potential of the prospect.

the volume and movement was on the share some weeks back, this has stopped in the past weeks. its curious that adi traditionally turned over a lot of volume prior to operations commencing, i think with some of the jvp partners eka and aut getting overexcited and announcing mid november start times for the fracture stimulation of the 3 wells has caused some further disbelief

ground hog days continue on adi, i will post regional info and discuss adi as always, hope its not disturbing too many members on this forum..

good luck to all holders

Hi Agentm
How do you come to the conclusion that the market has about a 10% chance of it being successful? Also any idea as to when the results may come in regard to the three wells fract? I noticed you had taken ADI again in the December stock tipping competion. Hoping for an outcome soon?

 

[adobee]

All i can say is that its looking pretty awful at the moment and i cant see any support... unless there is some good news out this isnt looking positive in the coming week ...

Still holding reluctantly ..

 

[Agentm]

Hi Agentm
How do you come to the conclusion that the market has about a 10% chance of it being successful? Also any idea as to when the results may come in regard to the three wells fract? I noticed you had taken ADI again in the December stock tipping competion. Hoping for an outcome soon?

the 3 wells are not fracced, they are preparing them for frac right now. when they commence that program there will be announcements made by the jvp..

adi announced they were likely to be in december, and from the photos and the reports i get there is nothing i can see that is out of order with their last announcement.. weston has to fill its dam, which it probably has, i thnk kennedy was good to go, and i think kowalik was pretty close like weston.

re taking the adi share last month and this month in the stock tipping comp,, eka and aut announced in their quarterly that the start of the fracs were mid nov.. i took it again in dec as i think they are closer to a start now than ever..

regarding any results, the wells will take 10 - 14 days to frac. then post that they will open them up an flow them onto production. what the flow rates will be will be announced in the post frac period as they all get hooked up onto production once they are cleaned up.. the jvp is just keen to get them all opened up and flowing. hilcorp will drill a further 3 wells that adi will be free carried on immediately in 2010.

hilcorp a program already announced to the jvp of drilling new wells very early on in 2010, looks like conoco and tcei/hilcorp will be drilling at the same time.

ground hog days until the frac commences unfortunately


adobee

nothing happens until the 3 fracs go ahead and the next wells are drilled free carried. atm its groundhog days as before.. could change any time when the fracs begin

 

[Hatchy]

Does anyone know a little about the Hilcorp company? Past performance as a driller? I'd like to think ADI has teamed up with someone that's going to give some smashing results, not a company that's going to take advantage of the little aussies.

As far as I can see there never has been an announcement that Mitsui has paid up on the yemen block 7 sale. Can anyone shed any further light? I wasn't at the AGM this may have been mentioned there?
Plenty to say that it's sold, just nothing that the money has arrived.

 

[rock86]

Does anyone know a little about the Hilcorp company? Past performance as a driller? I'd like to think ADI has teamed up with someone that's going to give some smashing results, not a company that's going to take advantage of the little aussies.

As far as I can see there never has been an announcement that Mitsui has paid up on the yemen block 7 sale. Can anyone shed any further light? I wasn't at the AGM this may have been mentioned there?
Plenty to say that it's sold, just nothing that the money has arrived.

Mate don't know that much about except they're the 3rd biggest private oil company in America (i think)). AgentM will definately fill you in on their background

 

[sam76]

Hilcorp Energy Company
Hilcorp was founded 20 years ago and is now one of the top 5 largest private E&P companies in the USA. The company has a number of domestic assets both on and offshore and has a demonstrable record of commercialising their investments. The company has an annual production in excess of 15 mmboe of oil and a staff of over 600 professionals, and is an experienced operator in the US.