ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

they can be filed many months later in some circumstances. i have seen them held off for close to a year on some wells.

the other aspect is that once the report is filed and it can also take a long time to process it online in some offices. if that office is busy..

lately its been a few months later and they pop up, if the region is getting a lot of leasing activity, it seems to take forever. (understandingly)

 

[estseon]

Choppy,

Thanks a lot for clarifying the entries on the form.

agentm,

I get the feeling that the shale gas reserves are viewed as a strategic resource by the US that will both reduce reliance on imported supplies and vulnerability to politically motivated pressures by producer countries and also will provide a means of maintaining some influence over global energy prices.

I believe that to be one of the reasons why the US is reluctant to reduce its use of coal. It may also be a factor in its aggressive stance towards Iraq and Iran.

External factors seem to indicate towards US government support for the development of the gas shale resource. I don't feel that the US administration's sudden concern for carbon emissions is based on a newly discovered concern for polar bears. I therefore do not feel that the US administration will permit temporary economic factors to jeopardise the development of this resource. They need at least 20 years before nuclear fusion generation can hope to start to come on stream and that is assuming that they can crack the engineering problems of controlling what is in effect a hydrogen bomb.

That might be a naive view however.

 

[Agentm]

hey estseon..we all need a good panic story to ratify the next commodity, or bubble, carbon credits..

the spin today, to get things over the line, is that the polar caps are melting. apparently this is a revelation of sorts... the bears will have to get leaner and meaner to survive....

so relating it to texas.. its real important to get the oil out of places like texas before they have to use sea based jack up rigs in karnes county when the tides rush in..


choppy and bubba


any thoughts on Ceradyne?

 

[estseon]

agent

some people think that the melting of the north pole sea ice will raise sea levels. It might a bit. The cooling of the sea by the melt water might cause local temperatures to fall below 4 degrees for a while. As everyone knows, the temperature of maximum density of that rather extraordinary liquid is 4 degrees and so local cooling could result in a bit of local expansion. I bet that they did not factor that into "The Models", which we must now all pay homage to.

Do you have a theory (other than the Buda water danger) as to why COP has focussed on the Austin chalk rather than the Eagleford? The neighbours seem to be focussed on the shale and our experience is that the chalk is difficult to drill. EME also has the experience at Quinn 3 in the Riverbend acreage of chalk. The natural fractures produce exciting flares during drilling but it must make the operation difficult as well as hazardous.

 

[Agentm]

agent

some people think that the melting of the north pole sea ice will raise sea levels. It might a bit. The cooling of the sea by the melt water might cause local temperatures to fall below 4 degrees for a while. As everyone knows, the temperature of maximum density of that rather extraordinary liquid is 4 degrees and so local cooling could result in a bit of local expansion. I bet that they did not factor that into "The Models", which we must now all pay homage to.

Do you have a theory (other than the Buda water danger) as to why COP has focussed on the Austin chalk rather than the Eagleford? The neighbours seem to be focussed on the shale and our experience is that the chalk is difficult to drill. EME also has the experience at Quinn 3 in the Riverbend acreage of chalk. The natural fractures produce exciting flares during drilling but it must make the operation difficult as well as hazardous.

in kunde 1 burlington fracced the chalks.. they drilled a second vertical, a "twin" well called kunde 2, that well had massive pressure problems, and i heard there was some expensive equipment down hole when things went wrong, and they ended up cementing the equipment down hoile and getting out, later it was side tracked and drilled again as a well to purely to do down hole readings from when fraccing kunde 3.. i think eme invested in that one but its not been a great investment at all in terms of the well design not being considered for production..

why the interest in the chalks? why not? its a massive resource and technology was advancing. back then it was a new discovery, over the last 3 years its developed to a stage where conoco is about to embark on a drilling program. imho Q1 2010

if you look at petrohawk, with the use of clever technology, and with ceramic bearing technology they are drilling wells in weeks that took months before. although their eagleford acreages is productive, the chalks and eagleford in the sugarkane are many times more productive in condensate. i have been told many times that conoco are not in the region and not leasing acreages for the gas, its purely a very positive move on the condensate rich chalks and eagleford - sugarkane - thats their primary concern. i have never seen conoco spend any time on presentations concerning themselves with a new field, but the eagleford was highlighted in their recent announcements, and discussed many times in the presentation and in the Q&A.. that company has many plays and many irons in the fire, but the eagleford was very very much in discussion.. in my view its a very prospective project to them..

Conoco have now got somewhere with the sugarkane, they have fracced bordovsky which i am still hearing good things about. choppy has heard otherwise i know, but local talk is that the well is good. my own view on the eagleford is that technology is advanced enough to see many large operators commence exploration. although we are the first into the sugarkane, its clear the learning curve has progressed, no more are we hearing about east texas chalks completions being replicated in our wells, now we are hearing multistage fracs. more the eagleford progression imho

close by to our kowalik well hawthorn have a permit for a vertical a bit south of the 3 eog lyssy wells being drilled into the oil rich eagleford right now..

dan hughes liked their darlene well so much they are drilling a slightly longer well 1400 feet east of darlene 1h, called darlene 2h.. nice oil wells in the eagleford just a but north and east of kowalik, near falls city

[/IMG]


this is what saf posted last night in the uk, interesting article





“Investors Hope For Early Christmas Present From The Eagle Ford Shale Play”

For investors in Aurora Oil & Gas, 2009 has been a fairly quiet year, dominated by the ASX-company’s search for farm-in partners for its promising Sugarkane gas and condensate field in South Texas.That hunt concluded in September, when the company signed agreed farm-in terms with Hilcorp, the fourth largest private E&P in the US.
The deal, which signaled some much-needed uplift in the share price, means Aurora will now be free carried for the drilling, completion and tie in of up to seven new horizontal wells and the stimulation of the three existing horizontal wells on the field. This will put ten wells into production across its three Areas of Mutual Interest: Sugarloaf (20 per cent pre-farm-out), Longhorn (50 per cent) and Ipanema (80 per cent). In return, Hilcorp will earn up to 50 per cent of Aurora’s interest in the Sugarloaf and Longhorn Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI) and five/eights of the smaller Ipanema AMI.
With the terms agreed, the joint venture is keen to return to the field to test its potential. And that potential could be significant, with talk of a multi-tcf condensate-rich resource within the prolific and well known Austin Chalk formation and the emerging Eagle Ford Shale trend. The field, discovered in 2006, lies some 20 km south of the main Texas Austin Chalk trend and is on trend with recent Eagle Ford Shale discoveries.
Aurora holds over 20,000 net acres within the Sugarkane field, providing a solid footprint in what could turn out to be a world-class play, with independent petroleum engineers Netherland, Sewell & Associates giving the ASX group’s slice of the pie a 2C contingent resource estimate of 391 billion cubic feet of gas and 72 million barrels of condensate. This estimate comes at an early stage in the evaluation cycle. Since its discovery, 15 exploration and appraisal wells have been drilled into the reservoir, four within Aurora’s area of interest and eleven drilled by US oil major ConocoPhillips in an adjacent AMI. Yet it is only recently that the potential of the Eagle Ford Shale play has been recognized.
The growing regional buzz surrounding the Eagle Ford shale trend has seen increased investment in land and drilling activity on neighbouring leases. As we pointed out in last week’s note on Texon Petroleum, another ASX -company with ambitions in the US, shale oil and gas plays are big news in North America but they come with a health warning: they only work if the right completion and production solutions can be found to economically extract the hydrocarbons from these tight rock formations.
Some local operators are getting it right. NYSE-listed Petrohawk Energy has 16-operated wells in production on its lands to the southeast of Aurora, with an average initial rate of 7.8 million cubic feet per day of gas and 143 bpd of condensate, while the Sinor-5 well, operated by Pioneer Natural Resources some 18 miles to the southwest of Sugarloaf-1, flowed 8.3 million cf/d of gas and 500 bpd of condensate.
Aurora and its joint venture partners plan to learn from their neighbours. Two wells are producing limited volumes on the Sugarloaf AMI, Kennedy-1H and Kowalik-1H, with the unstimulated Kowalik well producing 10.3 million cubic feet of gas and 3,395 barrels of condensate over the September business quarter and the partially-stimulated Kennedy well producing just over 2 million cf of gas and 743 barrels of condensate for the three month period. A third horizontal well, Weston-1H, is not producing..There are hopes that hydraulic stimulation will significantly boost production.
Fraccing operations should get underway next month. The operator Texas Crude Energy Inc plans to carry out “multi-staged” fracture stimulations along the horizontal section, using an engineering solution that has proved effective elsewhere in the play. Each stimulation is expected to take between ten and fourteen days, meaning investors shouldn’t have too long to wait for some operations-driven news flow. The first new wells under the farm-in deal should get underway in Q1 2010. Two thousand and nine may have been a quiet year for Aurora but next year is already looking much livelier.

 

[estseon]

Thanks a lot, agent.

I don't recall any report on the Kunde 2 problems.

Hopefully, we do not have too long to wait for the first frac results. Would you think that the new wells will be in the chalks? or do you think that they will be looking at the Eagleford? Or might they try to drill the top of the Eagleford and fracc both horizons?

 

[estseon]

Or might they try to drill the top of the Eagleford and fracc both horizons?

Well, it would seem that the ADI board has answered that question. That is precisely what they have planned according to the presentation published.

 

[jancha]

Well, it would seem that the ADI board has answered that question. That is precisely what they have planned according to the presentation published.

Nice presentation with lots of potential. Nothing really new tho with whats already been said. One day this will see blue skies question is when.

 

[bart9]

Yesterday I had a conversation with a landman recently cut loose from one of the operators in Karnes.....the word is that COP has been flaring gas continuously (presumabley under a burn permit from RRC-Austin) in order to produce the liquids from the Bordovsky well....seems the nearest gas line is 5 miles away...further, the comment was made that the volume gas per location locally may not justify laying a gathering line of much length anytime soon.....I haven't looked at the pipeline locations in Karnes...to detect an operator's preference for locations nearest existing gas lines...

 

[swm79]

long time reader of your thread agent... i say yours because hey, just look at your posts... anyway, i've always read with interest but never been a holder... until now... i'm in!

traded some SSS while the market woke up to the fact that these guys now are miners... and now everyone wants a piece... but with no details as to what they have their hands on, its all just talk.. time to bail before people wake up to that... in at 2.1c, out at 5.9c... could go longer but dont want to be caught with my pants down!

so yesterday i jumped on-board the ADI train yesterday at 13c

agent's posts speak for themselves... great looking set up. CP, $19m market cap, 3 wells on the way

good luck holders

 

[Agentm]

looks like the directors options were taken up, so that is out of the way..

bart, i have a few people i know looking around various wells atm. hopefully get a bit of an update on the wells. the photos in the presentation were showing a lot of works being done..

 

[Agentm]

looks very interesting at weston and kowalik


imho the wells are very close to being fracced, kowalik has a coiled tubing unit on the hole and some tankers very close by.. acid frac bubba?

you can see weston is set up with a rig over the hole and looks close, with a lot of extra tank batteries set up at weston


kowalik

weston

 

[OK2]

Nice pictures.

Because I am a share holder does that mean I am also entitled to commission from the sale of the hay in the picture?

It is looking more and more like "Texas Tea" as Uncle Jed from the Beverly Hillbillies would say.

 

[moses]

Hi, not wanting to spoil the fun (I hold ADI) but my reading of this chart doesn't look terribly inspiring. Volume in particular is low and the price seems to be settling around 13c for a while. Surely if we were very close to something good happening we'd start to see some action here...any thoughts?

Oh dear...the chart won't display...

 

[Agentm]

well moses, you have been around a long time so waiting a bit for a result should be a breeze

eka has a market cap of $10 mill. $345K in the bank

adi has a market cap of $19 mill so if you remove the $5mill cash, and assume nil value for the second yemen asset up for sale atm.. adi is getting only $14 mill for the sugarkane

adi have double the exposure to the sugarkane than EKA,

$14mill for adi vs $10mill for eka on the sugarkane aspect is an interesting valuation

there are 3 laterals to be fracced and 3 further free carried wells to be drilled by hilcorp..

adi have got some big expectations for the frac processes

 

[jestex12]

Texon Petroleum on the Eagle Ford dated Nov. 25, 2009:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091125/pdf/31m986hk945h52.pdf

 

[Agentm]

texon maps were extremely inaccurate. poorly presented, may post them later.

the ADI kennedy well is completely ready for a frac, nothing more to be done on that well at all imho.

 

[Roux]

AgentM I have been watching this thread for a sometime now and I am impressed with your knowledge.....great job on keeping us up to date on the sugarkane / eagleford play in this area

AgentM have you heard anything new on the EOG wells to the north... the last I heard is that their are 6 wells permitted around the milton #1 and 3 wells permitted around the lyssy #1. The railroad commision production report shows the milton #1 to be a dog, and showing no production on the last report. Is EOG reworking the well or recompleting the well?

Also another tid bit I have heard from some of the Landmen around town here that Dan Hughes has partnered up with EOG on the Darlene #2 and have a JV together on the acreage that Dan Hughes currently has under lease. Does anyone have any knowledge of this or are these just rumors?

 

[Agentm]

AgentM I have been watching this thread for a sometime now and I am impressed with your knowledge.....great job on keeping us up to date on the sugarkane / eagleford play in this area

AgentM have you heard anything new on the EOG wells to the north... the last I heard is that their are 6 wells permitted around the milton #1 and 3 wells permitted around the lyssy #1. The railroad commision production report shows the milton #1 to be a dog, and showing no production on the last report. Is EOG reworking the well or recompleting the well?

Also another tid bit I have heard from some of the Landmen around town here that Dan Hughes has partnered up with EOG on the Darlene #2 and have a JV together on the acreage that Dan Hughes currently has under lease. Does anyone have any knowledge of this or are these just rumors?

hey roux

not heard about the eog/dan hughes partnership, but i have contacts who could enlighten me, i may be able to find that out.

the lyssy wells have operations on them, and i wouldnt be concerned about a few low producing wells, eog is still leasing so they may not be turning on the taps yet. but i dont think that by the sheer numbers of eagleford wells they are drilling right now that eog is concerned about it. they will neeed to get the science right and perhaps dan huhes out of beeville are the ones to talk to..

the milton cluster have mostly been drilled, a new went in there and i think they are drilling in mcmullen atascosa and karnes county with the 3 or 4 rigs they use.

early days for them, they are looking at primarily an oil play in that karnes trough, as you know adi sit south of that in the prime acreages. where its gas/condensate.

that dan hughes well just outside of falls city, darlene, has been choked back i am told, so its sitting on 400 or 500 bopd there.. there is a permit in for a second well next to it.

murphy started their drees well next to the river and close to bordovsky on friday.. and you would be seeing the night flares on bordovsky in any case, its not hard to miss my friends tell me..

conoco is busy, they are drilling the plomero well, and they are reworking marlene olsen with a thinner liner.

kunde 3 is flaring as is kunde 1..

tcei has a lot of interesting people on board, and hilcorp are keen it seems.

market is pricing only 10% for adi right now on this play!

pretty good odds for investors getting in..

patience needed for the longer term holders..

petrohawk presentation

[/IMG]

 

[Agentm]

Koch Pipeline Co. LP in January plans to increase its crude oil pipeline transportation capacity by about 25 percent in Texas, the company announced Monday.

Koch will boost capacity to transport crude oil and gas condensates from the Eagle Ford shale formation, a South Texas natural gas field, to the Flint Hills Resources refinery in Corpus Christi.

The company, a subsidiary of Koch Industries Inc., has about 540 miles of active crude oil transportation lines in Bastrop, Bee, Brooks, Caldwell, Calhoun, Gonzales, Fayette, Jim Wells, Karnes, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, Starr, Victoria and Wilson counties.

also a revised slide of petrohawk