Actively managed portfolio journey

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

What a week of continued ups and downs with a pretty large drawdown from our highs of last week. ASX200 ended friday @ 7,921.30 recovering some of the losses for the week. The strong close that I am sure a lot of us were holding on hope for.

Resources have been absolutely crushed over the last few months, as mentioned in my above post URNM was forcefully liquidated and it looks like a good move, with Albo banning a Uranium operation in the Northern Territory. I am always concerned when I see politicians blocking viable mining operations that ultimately benefit indigenous communities and often have large kick backs to upskill and lift communities out of poverty. I frequently wonder if these objections to mining operations/industry are coming from the actual Indigenous people or from inner-city indigenous activist groups. Anyways enough of my ranting on politics.

None the less capital was redeployed to MVR reiterating what I stated yesterday, I like this fund as no asset has more then an 8% weighting (enabling me to not become over exposed to BHP which is already an index heavy weights in the A200 index fund)

As seen below, we have fallen from our 2.03% total return to 1.19% weightings are still on target, 20.38% in the resource sector and all else within +/- 5% of there target weightings.

Profit / Loss

Weighting

Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost


Looking Forward:

It is worth noting that BetMakers Technology releases there quarterly results on Monday, if we don't get a positive result the SP will crash and I will be liquidating my entire BetMakers position (this includes additional shares not outlined in the above portfolio). In this event I will look to reallocate this money into either AUDS a leveraged long AUDUSD bet or wait for an appropriate time to deploy it into HJPN (currently waiting to see what happens to the YEN)

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

with Albo banning a Uranium operation in the Northern Territory. I am always concerned when I see politicians blocking viable mining operations

precisely why i avoided uranium focused miners regardless of which country they are trying to mine , it has been like that ( depending on which party is in power ) for about 50 years

maybe it will change , but am not betting on that change will occur in my lifetime

 

[finicky]

capital was redeployed to MVR

Came across this resources etf today on w/e 'market matters'. They were replying to a reader who wants an etf that allows him to go "all in" on resources. Like you MM favours MVR as not being too heavy BHP but don't think it's in their p/fs.

• QRE: BHP 41%, WDS 10.2%, RIO 8.4%, and FMG 6.7% – traditional miner focused.
• MVR: WDS 8.3%, BHP 8.1%, FMG 6.8% and Santos (STO) 6.7% – more energy focused.

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

BET has been liquidated @ 0.086 a share, represents a loss on the speculative position. I also notably had a larger position outside of my portfolio tied up in BET.

I have faced a fairly large capital loss - will take this in to tax time. The additional capital will be deployed in the coming days. Thinking about deploying it into AUDS as mentioned above.

Onwards and upwards

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

AUDS position confirmed with an average price of $6.139 (includes brokerage), off the back of the liquidation of BET it also appears we got out at a good price with BET closing today $0.08.

This is under my speculative positions and some additional capital (that was also tied up in BET has been deployed).

Speculative Holdings Breakdown

Speculative Portfolio Holdings Breakdown - 10.830% of the total Portfolio

DUG Technology LTD - 5.20%

BetaShs Strong Aus Dollar Hedge Fund - 5.63%

The AUDS bet is my bet that we will see continued heat in the CPI reading, and continued heat in the services CPI reading. Stop loss is sat at ~10%

Onwards & Upwards

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
What a turbulent week on the ASX, the US labor market appears to be cracking, September is pretty much guaranteed however it does look like we may be in for a hard landing. Will be tuned into Bloomberg tonight watching the pre-market to see if there is continued losses on the SP500.

Overall we have ended the week in a better spot then last week, with BET now liquidated it also appears we dodged a bullet on URNM (down 7.83% today) up until today I was wondering if the stop-loss was a mistake.

The pick up of AUDS is good, timing could of been better but I see Australian inflation as far stickier then other neighboring nations and anticipate more stimulus in China to lift there domestic economy and in turn the purchase of more Australian goods (as well as the fact th others central banks are cutting).

Anyways, on to this weeks ending positions:

Profit / Loss

Weightings

Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost


I should note as well I maintain a database with historical data for the last 10 years of all stock codes on the ASX, if anyone has an interest or desire to access historical data feel free to reach out and id be happy to provide it free of charge

Side Note

A job opportunity has arisen which I am pursuing, which will lead to an approximate increase in annual income of ~$10-15k p.a. (pre-tax). If successful this will enable me to increase the investments I place into this portfolio.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

well how much was the education worth ?

you should have learned some great lessons this week

good luck

 

[finicky]

Can grow back your fingernails with BET out of the p/fs.

DAILY

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
A volatile week, with monday everyone thinking the sky was fulling to a strong close today. We are seeing some strength in the US economy and recession fears have mostly retreated.

Is bad news bad news and good news good news again, who really knows. AUDS closed strong for us as the AUDUSD combo rallied to just under 0.66. Minerals continued to lag, a long term hold, and may consider topping up upon my asset allocation post August (still very much up in the air). We are seeing promising signs of a recovery in China which is also bullish for resources, only time will tell if this is a false start or a true rebound.
The crash of URNM also reinforced that getting out was the right idea. Its always nice when you get these things right.

Profit / Loss

Weightings

Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost



Bring on the recovery, a strong SP500 futures are currently up, if we continue this strength overnight we should see a rebound over the next few weeks.

Onwards and upwards until next week

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
It appears good news is good news (long at last), as everyone is confident the FED will start cutting in September, a return to normal? We can only hope. Retail resilience has been positive and it appears a Goldilocks soft landing is back on the cards, not the hard landing that the market thought was coming just two weeks ago.

Potential Strategy - DUG
I like DUG it has rallied into the weekend, and I expect it to continue rallying into the results on the 22/08/2024, I am considering placing a stop loss at 2.95 to take profits off on the chance the results miss (would then subsequently re-enter at a lower price).

I currently believe that the results will be greater then expectations and we will see a continued rally. Other data center operators have revealed positive results and I feel confident there will be continued growth in there order book based on the webinar earlier this month.

Profit / Loss

Weightings

Unfortunately due to a computer migration I have lost my code which I used to produce my Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost graph. Will look to recreate it in time for the next update.

Looking Forward

As we can see the laggard is MVR and is dragging down our entire portfolio, this is what is largely responsible for the portfolio under performing the index. I however still like MVR and will be adding an additional 5-7.5% sometime in September to bring us overweight on resources. With FMG, BHP and RIO all now trading at relatively low P/E's I see an opportunity to both average down and get in at a good value price.

I have also received a nice 5% pay bump at work and will receive a continuing pay bump of an additional 5% come 01/01/2024, with my income being my greatest wealth builder I should be able to hit some fairly significant milestones over the next 6 months.

Aren't the markets fun

Onwards and upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

MID WEEK UPDATE

I fly out tomorrow and won't have access to my computer so I am doing my weekly update as at just prior to close of business Tuesday the next update will be on Sunday the 01/09/2024.

Earnings so far have been mixed, Dexus and other REIT's have missed earnings however this has been largely absorbed by the success of GMG within my core holding VAP. I will be watching DUG on the 22nd as advised above, I have opted not to sell out or have a stop loss, I am comfortable with riding this stock in the long term and will likely choose to add more if results miss.

It has been nice to see a small rebound in the resource sector today, and the continued rally of the AUDUSD combo which I have exposure to via AUDS.

Profit/Loss

Weighting



I am also keeping my excess cash on hand for my travel however any left over money will be promptly deployed into MVR upon my return.

Ill be in Sydney the back half of this week with an American so if anyone has any tourism recommendations I am all ears! I know nothing about the place.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[Sean K]

MID WEEK UPDATE

I fly out tomorrow and won't have access to my computer so I am doing my weekly update as at just prior to close of business Tuesday the next update will be on Sunday the 01/09/2024.

Earnings so far have been mixed, Dexus and other REIT's have missed earnings however this has been largely absorbed by the success of GMG within my core holding VAP. I will be watching DUG on the 22nd as advised above, I have opted not to sell out or have a stop loss, I am comfortable with riding this stock in the long term and will likely choose to add more if results miss.

It has been nice to see a small rebound in the resource sector today, and the continued rally of the AUDUSD combo which I have exposure to via AUDS.

Profit/Loss
View attachment 182861
Weighting
View attachment 182862


I am also keeping my excess cash on hand for my travel however any left over money will be promptly deployed into MVR upon my return.

Ill be in Sydney the back half of this week with an American so if anyone has any tourism recommendations I am all ears! I know nothing about the place.

Onwards & Upwards

Fish and chips at Bronte Beach if the weather is OK. Obviously have to drive past Bondi.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

In Sydney the back half of this week with an American so if anyone has any tourism recommendations I am all ears! I know nothing about the place.

get an Opal Card at Circular Quay and take the Sydney ferries (green ones, not the tourist boats) around Port Jackson. ...the F4 to Darling harbour, fish n chips at Watson's Bay. To Parramatta but don't dally there (!)

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

Back from my holiday, here is how we performed, not much commentary other then I am waiting to see what happens in China before increasing my position in MVR (in re; to housing) also had some interesting discussions while away which I will go into more detail regarding this Friday.

Profit/Loss

Weightings

 

[BossMan.]

POTENTIAL POSITION

Looking at not adding to my existing MVR holding but instead pursuing a direct holding opportunity in BHP/RIO or FMG.

Currently leaning more towards BHP or RIO due to there large copper diversification. Following the fall out last night and the majority of the above trading ex-div I should be able to get close to my target price.

My target purchase prices that will accommodate my entries are as such:

BHP - $36 - $37 (Entry)
RIO - $100 - $102.5 (Entry)
FMG - $15 - $16* (Edit: Revised Entry)

It is my view that we will see large scale Chinese intervention in the market soon. Any positions entered will have a 7.5% stop loss to insulate from excessive draw downs.

I also read an interesting article around the unions with BHP etc. and it appears to not be the choke hold the media has made it out to be however I am still cautious.

Will provide an update if my position is opened today. The position will be around ~5.5% and will bring us overweight on resources (~23% of total portfolio)

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

Position opened in FMG after trading ex-div and the stock dropping down ~8.5% on open it pretty much fell right into my buy territory. Bought at a slight premium of ~16.16 in contrast to my original buyzone of $15 - $16

However as mentioned above I see Chinese intervention in the market as imminent. They won't let there economy sputter much longer in my honest opinion. Additionally I view there being a cessation of conflict in the Israel v.s. Palestine conflict in the coming months which will trigger substantial infrastructure projects.

There is a tight stop loss that will be triggered @ 15.00 which would represent an ~7% loss on capital. Will have more details in my end of week update as well as some interesting conversations I had with some engineers from different iron mills in Australia on the ski slopes of all places.

Onwards and upward

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

All eyes on tonight's job data out of the USA, I am betting on the number coming in on the lower end, 110-120k jobs added. This is just within the range where the markets wont go into hard landing overdrive (like we saw in early August), well hopefully not.

This will no doubt drive the direction of Australian markets on Monday, but also the value of the AUDUSD combo. I am still long and still confident in this play over the next 3 months. Will get a bit shaky as we approach the presidential election, prior to the election is where I may choose to close out the position.

MVR continues to lag, I also picked up FMG at an average price of $16.26 when you take into account the brokerage (this now accounts for ~6.31% of my overall portfolio). I do believe there will be government intervention in China's housing market. The resource sector as a whole has been a laggard with MVR currently sitting down 16% in capital turns and 14.63% in total returns. However on a long term time horizon I have no reason to sell, and am not cash strapped.

Resources now account for 23% of my overall portfolio.

Profit/Loss

Weightings


Final Comments

It's important to note that the returns to date dropped due to both the sell off on Wednesday but also the injection of additional capital depreciating the actual returns.

The portfolio is now in a phase where I will let it sit and no further acquisitions are planned until mid-October following the payout of dividends. It is clear that the Diversified Growth area of my P/F is now falling into an underweight area (~6.5% below target), will be looking at an international companies fund to fill this void (excl. Australia), will provide updates with what I am looking at in the coming weeks.

Onwards & Upwards until next week.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
What a week, and what a rally. Resources with a big move over the last two days, and the property sector booming off the prospect of international rate cuts. AUD strength today was also nice to see. The Fed is obviously data driven, a 25bp cut is just about locked in and I will be interested in the economic data released next week. A 50bp cut sends a message of instability in my opinion and think we will see a similar stock market drawdown to what we saw in August if this eventuates.

Profit/Loss

Weightings


Additional Thoughts

DUG from being up as high as 30% has come down to -5% over the course of the last two weeks. I definitely like DUG and as I have written on the thread I like them because they stick to what they know and are good at. DUG has not pivoted from doing what they are good at to try and cash in on the AI bubble etc. Will be adding if they hit $2.40

Onwards & Upwards

 

[BossMan.]

Small Update

I have registered for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan for A200 (given it's a core holding and I want continued exposure to the ASX it seems like the common sense thing to do, would likely end up having to add to it at a later date anyways. The DRP should reduce the required reallocation).

Remaining dividends will be paid to my account and will continue to be deployed where I see fit in my portfolio (all dividends are reinvested into the portfolio).

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

Stop loss triggered on DUG @ 2.3 and filled @ 2.3

I can’t explain the sudden drop, sending this on my phone. Will have a further look when home. What a fall from grace.