Actively managed portfolio journey

[BossMan.]

Auto liquidated at 2.30 bought back in at 2.2 order just filled injected sum extra capital to increase position size.

Stop Loss at 2.00 to fully liquidate position. 10% below renewed entry price.

This drop is off no news. Unusual.

 

[BossMan.]

Update

I have had a look at the course of sales via my broker today and there weren't any large parcels unloaded. No ASX price query either, but $4.5m of shares changed hands today.

This is how the portfolios positioning is looking post selling down and buying back in at a lower price then the stop loss.



DUG is sitting up 4.23% from the average entry price, but still needs to climb another ~4% to recover the losses from the slide in price that caused the liquidation event.

SP500 futures pointing up by 1% should be in for a big day on the ASX tomorrow. Looks like the market is making its mind up and its pointing towards a soft landing.

Onwards and upwards until my profit and loss update tomorrow.

 

[divs4ever]

UPDATE

Stop loss triggered on DUG @ 2.3 and filled @ 2.3

I can’t explain the sudden drop, sending this on my phone. Will have a further look when home. What a fall from grace.

hopefully that still crystallized a profit for you

good luck

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

50bps cut, the fed cant go back and I feel like it was a mistake but only time will tell. I feel like the US market will consolidate overnight and taking some profits off the table.

The property sector is also booming, with my holdings in VAP now sitting up ~16.69% since March. Additionally the shock drop in DUG on no news presented an opportunity to get back in and at a lower price which we have already made a return of ~8% and are sitting up about ~1% on the position (when taking into account crystallization of losses from the stop loss triggering).

The only reason I can think for DUGs sudden drop is a sell on open that caused a sequential execution of peoples stop losses and the news that Microsoft is exploring the use of AI for Gas & Oil exploration. It's a long shot but could companies like DUG be on the table for acquisition if Microsoft are serious about this expansion?

Profit/Loss

Weighting


Final Comments

Still intending to add a new position in October (with the injection of dividend income), this new addition will likely be MQEG my thoughts on it are outlined in the thread linked. This new position would account for ~10% of my portfolio and fall under the Diversified Growth class.

Additionally the AUDS bet was right! The strength in the AUD has been promising especially in the last week. I will be holding until Christmas or selling at the outcome of the election;

If Trump wins I liquidate entirely
If Kamala wins I hold till Christmas (pending review on the macro outlook.)

Onwards and upwards until next week.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
China is back, stimulus is in and as a result Iron Ore and Copper are rocketing (as well as the Australian Dollar). Portfolio is at all time highs.

withPlan is to liquidate my AUDS position towards mid-October (to much uncertainty the US election) and similarly liquidate my position in FMG on the first whiff of Chinese Weakness, I feel like this rally in Iron Ore will correct next week so I have set an autosell @ 18.60 for my FMG position to crystalise profits in the event of another downturn.

Finally with the proceeds from the AUDS and potentially some of the FMG I intend to deploy some capital into ASX:AAL which is an interesting mining hire company operating out of the Hunter Valley. With NPAT of ~$7m and a market cap of $30m and a seemingly growing customer base I see there being an appropriate option to take a speculative position with tight risk controls (not a priority to add to however, currently sitting on the watch list).

Profit/Loss

Weightings

Plan is to deploy dividends + an injection into MQEG come the end of October. Target weighting of the new holding will be 10% and it will join the other assets held under the "Diversified Growth ETF's" category.

Onwards and upwards until next week.

 

[divs4ever]

so I have set an autosell @ 18.60 for my FMG position to crystalise profits in the event of another downturn.

??

not say $19.60

Monday is the end of the month and quarter , i would think the market would have a bit of trading volume on Monday particularly in the large caps

good luck

 

[BossMan.]

??

not say $19.60

Monday is the end of the month and quarter , i would think the market would have a bit of trading volume on Monday particularly in the large caps

good luck

Ideally it doesn’t get triggered. I think there is still potential upside again a lot weighs on Chinese economic data.

I don’t want to get stopped out on a one day draw back.

 

[divs4ever]

while there are no certainties .. the large caps should mostly go higher on Monday ( but good luck guessing by how much )

but fair enough

good luck next week

 

[BossMan.]

Positioning Update

FMG has been sold, this rally has been hard and fast off to me what seems like an over-reaction to stimulus in China + a holiday causing ports to close. I am expecting a fairly major retrace in the Iron Ore price as we approach the backend of this year.

Additionally the stronger AUD is going to hurt Australian Exports increasing recession concerns. While I do believe the RBA will hold off cutting for the remainder of this year, it is one bad data point to cause a cascade of cutting. I cant imagine the RBA wanting the AUD to sit to high for to long.

Entries & Exits;

AUDS:

Entered: $6.16​

Exited: $6.80​

​

FMG:

Entered: $16.16​

Exited: $21.22​

​

New Position

With some of the additional capital I have injected a substantial amount of it into AAL with a stop loss @ 0.22 and an entry price of 0.25 I like this stock as mentioned previously. I will get out of it if it quickly if it begins to go bottoms up, however I don't think it will fall and it is trading in a relatively tight range (0.245 - 0.26)

I am on holidays at the moment so don't want to muck with my excel sheet on my laptop to much.

I have some leftover capital from the liquidation of AUDS and FMG despite the fairly substantial position in AAL (~9%) this left over capital is being left in cash and will be used to purchase the 10% in MQEG (as discussed above).

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

As mentioned in the above FMG and AUDS were liquidated and it looks like at a good time, with the share price of both retreating since the sale.

The addition of AAL is a medium term play for me, they have indicated an expected 50% dividend pay out rate of profit, I expect we will see growth in the share price following there maiden dividend. For now while not many people are aware of the stock I expect we will see a lot of sideway trading in that 0.24 - 0.29 range on small volume. The medium term story of coal is strong in my opinion especially in the absence of Nuclear, reliable energy is going to be on the forefront of the minds of any major infrastructure investment projects relating to Data Centres, I expect we will see a retreat from Climate Politics/Net Zero in the upcoming election.

AAL now accounts for ~10% of my portfolio and is my largest speculative position. AAL at the time of writing this Alfabs is not recognised in the Excel Finance Ticker API so I will have to add an alternative data source to fix my excel tables (they will return next week, just don't have time to fix it right now).

Profit/Loss

Total Return: 6.03% (includes losses/profits from closed positions)
Capital Gains: 4.29% (includes losses/profits from closed positions)


Plan has changed to add MQEG following the US election, I think we will see some whipsawing in global markets based on the outcome so wont to steer clear of this initial expected volatility. Expected position sizing is 10%.

Onwards & Upwards

 

[divs4ever]

Plan has changed to add MQEG following the US election, I think we will see some whipsawing in global markets based on the outcome so wont to steer clear of this initial expected volatility. Expected position sizing is 10%.

an interesting approach , i can see your logic , as no matter who seems to win the election there will be much questioning of the results and uncertainty in two months( roughly ) leading to the inauguration ( about the new Government policies introduced )

good luck ( on a nice entry point )

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
Hotter then expected inflation data, is inflation actually dead? I think so (in the absence of all out war in the middle east) and I think the fed will continue to cut. Its set the path and I dont see them back pedalling.

The week looked so good but we fell today. Monday will be determined by the Saturday press conference in China, I wonder if they will be able to feed the markets enough hopium to see continued resource and Asian equity strength.

Heres how we finished the week;

Profit Loss

Weightings



On a side note I am quite proud of my exits from both AUDS and FMG which have each since fallen. I am currently sitting at a total return including closed out positions of 6.27%

Plan is still to not add until I see the US election results (unless there is a major draw down in US equities in the weeks leading into the election)

Onwards & Upwards until next week.

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

DUG in trading halt pending a capital raise. Have cancelled my stop loss as to avoid a liquidation event. Will submit a new stop loss at $1.90 to provide myself a bigger buffer.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

UPDATE

DUG in trading halt pending a capital raise. Have cancelled my stop loss as to avoid a liquidation event. Will submit a new stop loss at $1.90 to provide myself a bigger buffer.

seems poorly timed ... DUG shoulda taken the opportunity when it was $3, like any redblooded aspirant growth minnow

oh well, in my experience, the SP will drop to whatever the new offer is, or thereabouts. Depends on the interest the brokers can conjure up.

 

[BossMan.]

seems poorly timed ... DUG shoulda taken the opportunity when it was $3, like any redblooded aspirant growth minnow

oh well, in my experience, the SP will drop to whatever the new offer is, or thereabouts. Depends on the interest the brokers can conjure up.

I guess this is a dilemma where at the peak of the SP the CFO gets sacked. Probably took a few weeks to get a good idea of the financial positioning.

 

[BossMan.]

Update
Update above was complete via my phone in the office. Here is the proper update;

Stop loss submitted @ 1.90 hopefully the institutional placement is fully filled and we don't actually see it gap down to the $1.90 price.

None the less, in the event we are forcefully liquidated the capital loss can be used to offset gains on other assets in this portfolio come tax time.

We are also overweight on our speculative positions at the moment (~16%) compared to our target of 10% (the bulk being my position in AAL).

In the event of liquidation the money will be placed in my cash account that is set to be used to purchase MQEG following the US election/the next big draw down in large US equities (whichever one happens first).

As per the Australian Financial Review: DUG Technology powers up $30m placement to drive growth

 

[BossMan.]

Update

Well, DUG didn't gap down to $1.90 (the issue price) and the raise was successful. Happy to hold for the moment, will see if we slide down in to the afternoon. For now it looks like it is quite happy to sit around the $2.00 mark.

Promising that the offer was filled so quickly and there was strong support from the institutional clients.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
Strong close in US equities on Friday night, should lead to a strong open in Australia. I expect a continued slide in Iron Ore back to the lower end of the 90-95 range.
I will be watching to potentially remake my entry in to FMG again if Iron Ore slides to this level. Ultimately I think China is still very hesitant to intervene to the level that the market wants.

Heres how we are sitting, for my next positional updates, the posts on Thursday sum them up well.


Profit/Loss


Weightings

 

[BossMan.]

Update

Stop loss triggered and filled at $1.90, I had hope it would stay above the SPP price, no such luck unfortunately.

Money will be loaded into MQEG in the coming weeks/at the next major drawdown

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

What a week, who watched the WTC share price, I sure did and I made a small trade on Tuesday to capitalize on it (not included as a part of this portfolio).

An ASX concern for me has been the continued default in Chinese off-market private bonds, it shows just how weak the Chinese economy is. In the long term even having the state/local governments step in and buy excess property, it simply isn't sustainable. I hold strong concerns about the price of Iron Ore at its current levels (in the absence of some of a global conflict ceasing and a mass rejuvenation process being required). Watching to see if we find Iron Ore fall back below $90.00 and if so, to re-enter into FMG for a swing trade.

Also in sad news, our DUG position was liquidated by a stop loss at $1.90. Have left DUG on the watchlist, all though I feel like we will be washing our hands of this stock in the near term, preferring to allocate the capital in a different direction (more on this later).

None the less here is how we are sitting;

Profit/Loss


^important to note that the % return has increased as a result of the decrease in overall portfolio value (all though AAL is performing well.)

Weightings


Looking Forwards

As we can see it is notable that our Diversified Growth allocation is underweight by ~5%, its also important to note that this gap was bigger (prior to the liquidation of DUG). Following November 5th or a major drawdown a position will be entered to gain more exposure externally to Australia.

I have previously lent towards MQEG however I am now heavily considering splitting an approximately 15% position across the S&P500 (7.5%) and Europe (7.5%) evenly, in currency hedged positions (ETFs). Currency hedged as I am confident in the strength of the Australian Dollar in the back half of this year as other neighboring nations cut (especially Europe)

Also I am very happy to be overweight property at the moment, despite the interest rate setting, the following article in the AFR has further reinforced my confidence;



As a younger employee who attends the office 5 days a week (by choice), I am seeing the trend move in this direction across the board. Hybrid office attendance is making a comeback whether employees like it or not (by hybrid I am referring to 3 days a week in person).

Onwards and upwards, until next week.