Actively managed portfolio journey

[divs4ever]

I am conscious I could of timed my entry into DUG better.

if only i could gloat on how many times , i got the perfect entry ( a depressingly small number , considering)

however time ( and fuzzy hindsight ) often dulls over those embarrassments

i resorted to calculating a 'good enough ' price strategy .. if the selection slices through and goes another 20% lower ( and it has happened a few times ) i clamp my jaw and consider a second buy ( even the same day ) , lower

all part of the learning curve ( as is holding the resolve too long and missing out on the stock completely )

 

[BossMan.]

Update

Purchase of additional shares of MVR complete. Essentially a double up on my prior position. MACD indicator was present, and I am bullish on the resource sector in general.

Updated weightings:



Markets are also down slightly today and with a big week of US economic data I have no doubt we will see continued volatility .

Conscious of my over-exposure to Australia (all though VDBA gives me some international exposure). It's something for me to think on over the next few months.

For now my target is still get my allocation to the resource sector up, MVR is now at a weighting I am happy with so I may look at more specific mining assets/funds i.e. URNM/GDX/WIRE all something for me to think on.

onwards and upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

A little bit earlier today (I know its not the end of the week just yet)

Profit / Loss


Weighting


In Reflection;

I wasn't expecting the continued sell off we saw earlier in the week - definitely could of timed my accumulation of MVR better however I at the time didn't expect the continued sell off in commodities.

DUG is tanking unfortunately, down 3.88% today. I have a stop loss in place at $2.30/share (below the weak support level, I'm leaving the stop loss in 0.place) the speculative investment proponent is the most likely place that I will see value destruction so I in turn have an exit for all speculative positions if they reach a loss of ~15%. (these speculative investments aren't significant amounts of value, as my portfolio grows and more capital is inputted I will adjust this risk appetite to accommodate)



Portfolio is up 1.54% in contrast to last week where we ended +0.72% with non-farm payrolls tonight I will watch Bloomberg with anticipation, lets see a dovish fed...

until next week

 

[BossMan.]

writing some code to show the growth of my portfolios value, ill eventually add a benchmark in the background (note its only including the capital gains not dividend income).



just for a bit of fun, all data is loaded dynamically which is cool from a EOD stock price API (just for fun but I just load the stock code and purchase date)


Wont bore you all to much more!

 

[Sean K]

I like your table showing % gain/loss, BossMan. I think I'll do the same thing in my Sean K Trading diary and add a column on the right with a very brief update on how each stock is going, or not going. Cheers.

 

[BossMan.]

I like charts


Orange line represents the net cost of the holdings ((purchase price * units) + brokerage)

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
Additional MVR purchased today (final purchase @ $35.060 bringing our total weighting well on to target (16.315%), purchased off the back of a price alert)



It has definitely been a tougher week with downswings across the board. BET has fallen from grace, this is a long term position for me. Similarly DUG has seen some pain, again longer term speculative holds. Stop losses are in place to stop them from getting out of hand.



A nice little chart to show you the movement, orange line represents the cost and blue line represents the current value (does not take into account dividend income).



Rough week this week, however given I am investing and not trading I have no intention to exit my long term positions (diversified growth, property sector or the resource sector). Dividends for a lot of the above are coming up in the next two weeks.

Definitely intending on an alternative to MVR for the remaining 4% of space under the resource holdings.

Onwards and upwards till my next purchase or weekly update.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

Resources continued to tank this week, with a small recovery today and Thursday. Hoping for a rebound in the coming weeks, did I time my double down in MVR wrong yes, something to think on for the future. I've copped it on the chin and learnt from it, but I didn't foresee minerals consolidating as low as they did. None the less I am investing with a longer term horizon so timing the market perfectly isn't the be all end all.

Portfolio Returns:


Portfolio Weightings:


As we can see we are just about at our goal of being within 5% +/- of our target weightings.

In July I intend to open a position in a targeted resource being gold or copper, potential options I am currently looking at are WIRE or GDX which additionally offer me international exposure.

As we enter July I will be revising my strategy and asset allocation targets with an aim to complete a full rebalance by mid September, I don't intend to liquidate any assets as to avoid paying capital gains tax, this rebalance will be achieved by injecting additional funds into my portfolio. While revising my strategy ill be putting an emphasis on having at least 20% of my holdings internationally, with a goal to grow this to 33% by the end of 2024.

Another thing to look forward to is a lot of the assets hit ex-div at the end of next week/early July, enabling additional cashflow to be injected into the portfolio.

Portfolio Value v.s. Portfolio Cost


Blue Line = Total Holdings Value
Orange Line = Total Holdings Cost

 

[divs4ever]

did I time my double down in MVR wrong yes, something to think on for the future.

that is why i normally 'nibble' to increase the holding , extra brokerage fees , sadly yes , but by buying cheaper and cheaper , sometimes negates that

but of course break out your calculator , and work out what suits you best

i am of the view that manufacturing ( and therefore mineral demand ) is slowly softening , ( but i still want long-term positions in the sector , it just might be a little uncomfortable for a while )

 

[BossMan.]

Very strong quarterly dividend, far stronger then I was expecting from two of the holdings estimated today.

VAP: 180 CPS
VDBA: 57 CPS

VAP is extremely strong and represents a dividend 3x higher then last quarter

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
A tougher week this week, hot CPI data, softer mineral prices. However we saw a recovery in the share price of DUG and a surge in BET in to the close today.

Dividend payments will enable me to add an additional 1.25% of value to the portfolio, I will also have a cash injection to the portfolio in late July (trying to bring my targets inline).

Profit/Loss


Weightings


Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost


General Update

With my work, I may be put in a position where I need to relocate to Sydney. I will only do this if they offer me a decent enough increase in my pay package.

Means I am going to be accumulating a bigger buffer fund (currently $10,000) I want this to hit $15,000 to offset some of the uncertainty risk. If Sydney falls through I inject the overflow into my portfolio, if Sydney goes ahead I use it to cover initial expenses and invest the remainder.

In 2024 I still see a $10,000 emergency fund as sufficient.

 

[divs4ever]

Means I am going to be accumulating a bigger buffer fund (currently $10,000) I want this to hit $15,000 to offset some of the uncertainty risk. If Sydney falls through I inject the overflow into my portfolio, if Sydney goes ahead I use it to cover initial expenses and invest the remainder.

In 2024 I still see a $10,000 emergency fund as sufficient.

i instinctively dislike Sydney , i can barely wait for the next bus/train out , don't know why i even found bits of Adelaide i liked ( and would revisit if they are still there ) if i had a good reason to go back

i hear stories , try for $20K for that Sydney buffer

good luck either way ( go or stay )

 

[BossMan.]

i instinctively dislike Sydney , i can barely wait for the next bus/train out , don't know why i even found bits of Adelaide i liked ( and would revisit if they are still there ) if i had a good reason to go back

I'm from Adelaide and currently live in Adelaide.

While I do like Adelaide I have struggled within my current role (with my entire division being located within Sydney). It has resulted in a very isolating working situation.

We will see what happens, the new role would pay dividends in regards to my long term job prospects and immediate income. Could be fun to live in a share house in Sydney for a couple of years as well.

If the job comes through ill definitely float Melbourne or Brisbane (definitely prefer these cities)

 

[BossMan.]

My bet is intervention into property market (further) and more stimulus

What to Expect From the Third Plenum, China’s Big Policy Meeting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...hat-it-means-for-tax-reform-and-supply-chains


Good for australia exporters.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

Lots of movements this week with all of my core holdings hitting ex-div, I have now included the expected income within the returns under "returns to date (incl. div)" despite this capital not actually hitting my bank account till mid-july.

We have seen a rebound in the price of Iron Ore and other critical minerals which I am pleased to see. No doubt a lot of this has been off the back of speculation around the Chinese policy meetings that are taking place at the moment. Our core resource holding of MVR still sits down ~4% even when taking into account dividends.

DUG also saw highs this week of $2.74/share however this has since retreated. I am awaiting the quarterly. I similarly expect a rally in the price of BET as we approach the end of July. Will have a stop-loss in place to cash out entirely if targets are missed this quarter. At a loss but a controlled loss.

I am still bullish on the ASX and the property market despite todays REIT reporting in the Financial Review, oh and all eyes on US job data tonight, a softer then expected result will give us a huge spike in Property on our Monday trading, however I have a inkling we will see a more resilient jobs market then anticipated. Enough of my rambling, here is how we are looking:

Profit/Loss

Weighting

Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost

July/August Strategy

With the dividend income as well as a tax return (lots of deductions from University etc. which has resulted in a refund which is nice!) + some accumulated cash will enable me to add to my resource sector allocation. I will be adding a fund that provides me with international mineral exploration exposure (not listed on ASX). Looking at URNM/WIRE/GDX as a part of my mission to get exposure outside of Australia. This addition will bring our resource holdings to target.

 

[BossMan.]

New Purchase

As mentioned in the above post I was looking at diversifying my resource sector holdings. New position of URNM filled. Bid of @ 9.080 (slightly above market price)

My justification URNM has been absolutely rolled over the course of this year from its highs in February of ~$11 it has since fallen over 18%. Position has been opened with the mindset that we will see a rebound in global uranium prices. URNM also appears to find support at around the $8.70 mark (don't see if likely to fall this low).

I have put in place a stop loss below this support level which if executed will result in an ~10-12% loss on capital. A risk I am willing to take for the international exposure in the resource sector that I am after.

More of my ramblings justifying my decision;

We are beginning to see a global shift to Nuclear Energy - even if it doesn't eventuate to anything it is still bullish imo. Some other regional news I follow also indicates that China is independently intending to add an additional 150 reactors by 2040 (and wouldn't be surprised if other Asian nations also follow suit)

What does this mean for the weightings?



Our target of having 20% allocated to the resource sector has been reached. I will now not make any new contributions to my portfolio until I am back from New Zealand in August.

In which my next addition will likely be a speculative investment / addition we may be cashing out of BET at an unfortunate loss dependent on the results in the quarterly.

Onwards and upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
Wonderful day on the ASX this week, especially lucky with my timing in URNM with just two days later increased taxes in eastern europe, your ripper!

Softer CPI data has all but confirmed a rate cut in September, now with it 100% priced in and even a 10% chance in July. Fantastic for the property sector which I have been bullish on for quite some time. Additionally we are seeing more gains across other asset classes outside of the MAG7 in the USA (notably the Russel 2000 up 4.59% so far this week with a huge spike yesterday).

I have also stopped paying attention to the raw SP500 instead only really taking into account the equal weighted version. The SP500 is to top heavy.

Enough of my ramblings, here is how we finished the week:

Profit / Loss


Weighting


Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost

Final Comments:
As mentioned in my prior post I don't intend to open any new positions until after August. However in saying this if we hit the -15% mark on BetMakers I will be forced to liquidate that asset and will deploy it back into DUG technology (dependent on the price), if not it will sit as a cash holding for a short period of time.

Onwards and upwards until next week.

 

[BossMan.]

Status Update

BET stop loss in place and will trigger at 0.079 dont think it will get executed if it does I am happy to wash my hands of the asset forever. There is also a larger position of BET that will be sold off that isn't included in my above portfolio.

It's unloved and gaming related assets appear to have been on a longer term down turn. If it doesn't get executed I will be happy to hold till the quarterly.

If it does capital will be redeployed along with some additional capital as outlined above.

Onwards and upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

What a week of ups and downs, the property sector is serving us well with all roads pointing to fed cuts in September and even a chance of a cut in August. However we continue to get burnt on our resources holdings, and the ASX appears to have retraced quite substantially today. It is healthy for there to be some profit taking on the ASX hopefully this will establish us for a strong week next week.

Profit / Loss

Note VAP total returns of 8.04% since March of this year.

Weightings


Current Value v.s. Portfolio Cost



Trying to hold on to a cash buffer until after August however if an appropriate opportunity arises I may reverse on this. It's a real shame we did hit a high of 3.98% total return as at close of business Wednesday, and the drawdown on Thursday and Today have reversed to being in a worser position then last week.

Until next week, onwards and upwards.

EDIT: Target of this portfolio is to outperform the ASX200, will start including comparisons to the index from September onwards. Minimum total return target for me is 8% p.a.

 

[BossMan.]

UPDATE

URNM gapped down, stop loss triggered and liquidated at an ~10% loss. It is a real shame, however I feel like it is the right decision to limit risk exposure, and ensure I stick to my plan outlined in previous posts (*all speculative plays (that focus on a specific resource, etc.) have a stop loss of 10% to limit down side risk due to there higher volatility).

Capital will be redeployed into MVR which offers broader resource exposure (no holding > 8%) will take another look at URNM in the future.

Will provide updated weightings on Friday/Saturday as a part of my EOW update.