Actively managed portfolio journey

[divs4ever]

EOW Update

What a week, who watched the WTC share price, I sure did and I made a small trade on Tuesday to capitalize on it (not included as a part of this portfolio).

An ASX concern for me has been the continued default in Chinese off-market private bonds, it shows just how weak the Chinese economy is. In the long term even having the state/local governments step in and buy excess property, it simply isn't sustainable. I hold strong concerns about the price of Iron Ore at its current levels (in the absence of some of a global conflict ceasing and a mass rejuvenation process being required). Watching to see if we find Iron Ore fall back below $90.00 and if so, to re-enter into FMG for a swing trade.

Also in sad news, our DUG position was liquidated by a stop loss at $1.90. Have left DUG on the watchlist, all though I feel like we will be washing our hands of this stock in the near term, preferring to allocate the capital in a different direction (more on this later).

None the less here is how we are sitting;

Profit/Loss

View attachment 186555
^important to note that the % return has increased as a result of the decrease in overall portfolio value (all though AAL is performing well.)

Weightings
View attachment 186556

Looking Forwards

As we can see it is notable that our Diversified Growth allocation is underweight by ~5%, its also important to note that this gap was bigger (prior to the liquidation of DUG). Following November 5th or a major drawdown a position will be entered to gain more exposure externally to Australia.

I have previously lent towards MQEG however I am now heavily considering splitting an approximately 15% position across the S&P500 (7.5%) and Europe (7.5%) evenly, in currency hedged positions (ETFs). Currency hedged as I am confident in the strength of the Australian Dollar in the back half of this year as other neighboring nations cut (especially Europe)

Also I am very happy to be overweight property at the moment, despite the interest rate setting, the following article in the AFR has further reinforced my confidence;

View attachment 186557

As a younger employee who attends the office 5 days a week (by choice), I am seeing the trend move in this direction across the board. Hybrid office attendance is making a comeback whether employees like it or not (by hybrid I am referring to 3 days a week in person).

Onwards and upwards, until next week.

personally i think Europe is a lunatic clown-show and Germany will have it's revenge via the teachings of Karl Marx ( even if half the leaders seem to impersonate Groucho Marx )

good luck if you play there

i am even uneasy about my exposure via HVN ( which is nicely in profit after a fair bit of work )

 

[BossMan.]

New Trade

I was on the train into work this morning (I have been following the price of OOO over the last few weeks), and saw the ~6% decline in crude oil as a result of Israel's tame response.

I personally still see the middle east as a powder kegg that could go off at any minute. Given this I have viewed this as an over-sell-off. I see the Crude Oil price rebounding in the short term, and I feel fairly confident about that. None the less here is the trade;

Position

Stock Code: OOO
Average Price: $5.246
Stop Loss: $5.00
Trade Weighting (as a proportion of P/F weight): ~8%

Watching the price of oil and will be tuned into the markets tonight. Will sell this within the next few weeks, I also see the presidential election as a potential catalyst for some more oil volatility.

Onwards and upwards

Bossmans.

 

[divs4ever]

New Trade

I was on the train into work this morning (I have been following the price of OOO over the last few weeks), and saw the ~6% decline in crude oil as a result of Israel's tame response.

I personally still see the middle east as a powder kegg that could go off at any minute. Given this I have viewed this as an over-sell-off. I see the Crude Oil price rebounding in the short term, and I feel fairly confident about that. None the less here is the trade;

Position

Stock Code: OOO
Average Price: $5.246
Stop Loss: $5.00
Trade Weighting (as a proportion of P/F weight): ~8%

Watching the price of oil and will be tuned into the markets tonight. Will sell this within the next few weeks, I also see the presidential election as a potential catalyst for some more oil volatility.

Onwards and upwards

Bossmans.

now being an employed person , you may have missed a major BRICS(+) initiative , the plan to set up their own international commodity trading exchange ( outside of the US dollar, euro, UK pound ) .

INITIALLY they plan to trade grains with member nations , but given the official ( and new members ) how long before they include oil/gas/coal/uranium

so please be careful

and by the way they seem to be talking delivery contracts only ( no derivatives )

 

[BossMan.]

now being an employed person , you may have missed a major BRICS(+) initiative , the plan to set up their own international commodity trading exchange ( outside of the US dollar, euro, UK pound ) .

INITIALLY they plan to trade grains with member nations , but given the official ( and new members ) how long before they include oil/gas/coal/uranium

so please be careful

and by the way they seem to be talking delivery contracts only ( no derivatives )

Not a long term position, so just a trade. But something to be mindful going forward and when looking at energy stocks listed on the ASX

 

[peter2]

IMHO - OOO can be a little volatile (jumpy) like to POO. WTI can go lower eg <$65 and this may send OOO closer to 5.00. An exit stop this close may or may not be hit. My exit price is much lower and I'm prepared to buy more if OOO gets near 5.00 and more if it trades near 4.80 (WTI ~ $60). In the medium term (1 - 6mths) I should profit from this position.

If the conflict in the ME gets worse and nastier then we may see a profit quite quickly (WTI >$75).

I think the trade idea of buying an essential commodity when the price is low is valid in the case. The price volatility makes it difficult to be precise with placement of exit stops.

 

[BossMan.]

IMHO - OOO can be a little volatile (jumpy) like to POO. WTI can go lower eg <$65 and this may send OOO closer to 5.00. An exit stop this close may or may not be hit. My exit price is much lower and I'm prepared to buy more if OOO gets near 5.00 and more if it trades near 4.80 (WTI ~ $60). In the medium term (1 - 6mths) I should profit from this position..

Noted, is this jumpiness due to thin liquidity?

I will look to amend my stop loss slightly to avoid a liquidation on a gap down, primarily chose it as it was the easiest way for me to get the exposure via the ASX.

Thanks for your input, it is appreciated.

 

[peter2]

Manage your risk in this trade but it may pay to give it some wiggle room. The gaps between days give it that jumpy look. These gaps are due to oil trading while the ASX is closed. If oil has a significant overnight move then OOO will gap up or down depending on the direction price moves.

OOO is far from a good proxy for oil but it's good enough for a medium term trade.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
ASX is retreating but the portfolio is holding up well. Super interested in the volatility we will see as we approach the US Election next week.

The oil trade has worked (so far), the reason for the trade was the oversell off as a result of a tame Israel response. I think the market overreacted (as it often does).

New way to show the portfolio, I am also indexed against an ASX200 fund now:

Return Including Closed Positions;



Returns (only open positions)



Overall sitting at a ~6.88% return. Still underweight on my core holdings and will be primed to sell OOO next week after the election to load into an international ETF (assuming we dont see any funny business around the result of the election etc.)

Onwards and upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

Weightings
Forgot to add;

 

[Captain_Chaza]

For What it is worth--- Stops don't work in most Aussie ETFs
I found the OOO Horribly Unseaworthy as you are Playing against a Market Maker whose Job it is to BUY and SELL to Himself /Herself or itself to Make a Market and FOOL you to THINK there is VOLUME in this here Market

Sailing the OOO ETF----One WEEK at a Time-----&--------------One DAY at a Time-------------------------&-----------10 MINUTES at a Time

NB: the Gaps on the last 2 Days on the 10 MINUTE chart ---- Note how there is Almost NO Market/ VOLUME During the day

You are always Welcome on my "Ship of Fools"

Salute and Stay Safe

 

[qldfrog]

For What it is worth--- Stops don't work in most Aussie ETFs
I found the OOO Horribly Unseaworthy as you are Playing against a Market Maker whose Job it is to BUY and SELL to Himself /Herself or itself to Make a Market and FOOL you to THINK there is VOLUME in this here Market

Sailing the OOO ETF----One WEEK at a Time-----&--------------One DAY at a Time-------------------------&-----------10 MINUTES at a Time
View attachment 187176
NB: the Gaps on the last 2 Days on the 10 MINUTE chart ---- Note how there is Almost NO Market/ VOLUME During the day

You are always Welcome on my "Ship of Fools"

Salute and Stay Safe
View attachment 187175

I would agree indeed on OOO: trade yes, but not investing.
And it is future based so wild moves
For what it is worth, i also used FUEL which tends to be a bit more stable and maybe an alternative in your case: check how it fits with your needs

 

[BossMan.]

Update

With Trump looking like the winner, we saw crude prices slide. I sold out of my OOO position for an approximate 4.6% gain. Not bad for ~7 trading days.

Looking at the currency slide, the contrarian inside of me is wanting to purchase AUDS on the ASX off the back of this sell off. I feel like we are seeing the unwind of trades on a scale that is disproportionate. Additionally none of the policies are going to be implemented in the immediate short term and we are going to be seeing a likely fed rate cut tomorrow.

I see a short term rebound trade here. Will watch AUDS at the open tomorrow.

Onwards & Upwards.

 

[BossMan.]

Update
As we exited oil today, I didn't go through with my AUD bet. I want to instead allocate to a holding that I don't plan on selling in the short term and fits more into the long term objectives of this portfolio. I will look to rebuild my speculative cash trading fund soon as I have enjoyed swing trading with ~8% of the portfolio total value.

The position I ultimately entered was ASX:IJR
Which tracks the RUSSELL2000 relatively well, and in fact at times has outperformed it.




Stock Code: IJR.ASX
Entry Price: $189.65
Approx. PF Weighting: 9.99%

Fitting nicely into my diversified core growth allocation. While MQEG looked good, the Trump victory makes me worry about Europe and have preferred to go for straight USA exposure.

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update
What a week trump winning in a landslide, the prospect of tax cuts, and we are witnessing strong economic activity in China (unexpectedly seeing export growth rise to 12.7%), this information likely offsetting the prospect of Trump tariffs. I sold out of my OOO position off the back of trumps landslide as a result and we have seen oil prices retreat substantially overnight.

My core positions are back into balance with the addition of IJR objectives now sit around rebuilding a trading fund with a weighting of ~10% that will be short term trades as I have done in prior weeks (WTC, OOO, FMG). I have really enjoyed this and practicing my entries and exits off the back of economic news.

Profit / Loss


Weightings


@Sean K I am stealing your pie chart idea, I think it is a better way to display the proportions.

Final Remarks;

Including my closed positions we are sitting at a return of ~7.54%, unfortunately I am still underperforming the ASX200 Accumulative Fund, however I am learning a lot, and think I will be able to position myself more effectively going forward.

Isn't trading the markets fun.

Onwards & Upwards.

Bossmans,

 

[BossMan.]

 

[peter2]

@BossMan. I like that confidence and your joy in the challenge that trading provides.
IMO you've got the right balance between long and short term (90:10). As you gain experience with more short term trading you may increase this portion if your results are good enough.

 

[divs4ever]

just remember difficult times , are also educational times

good luck

 

[BossMan.]

EOW Update

Well, maybe buying the USA Small Caps index was a mistake, or maybe not. Will be watching what happens with Core economic data out of the USA tonight.

Starting to think a SP500 EW selection may have been better. Oh well. I still have confidence in the long term story of the RUSSELL and will continue to hold (no need for the cash so cant hurt for this to be a buy and hold. Still have my stop loss to crystalize it if **** really hits the fan).

The higher then expected domestic consumption out of China today was good, and justifies a trade I am making (more on that at the bottom). It is also bullish for resources, whether that will hold we will see. I still think the Iron Ore price will continue to slide into Christmas (in which I will be watching for the 88 - 92 range to make my entry back in to FMG for a trade if that evantuates.

Here's how we stand;

Profit / Loss




Weighting







New Trade

As mentioned above I have enjoyed trading with ~10% of my portfolio so from some extra cash I had sitting elsewhere I thought I would just inject it and implement it into this portfolio. Cash with a total weight of ~8.71% of the total portfolio value.

I figure I will give my reasoning behind my trade, my target exit, my stop loss etc. so I can justify my decision and people can give there thoughts (if they are so inclined)

Stock Code: AUDS
Entry Price: $5.79
Stop Loss: $5.50

Rationale;

AUDUSD combination hit a low of ~0.644 today, I have already began to believe that this is weaker then it should be (despite it undoubtedly pricing in the election), I still see there being a bounce in the currency in the short term to settle back around the 0.668 - 0.68 range. Strong domestic consumption out of China is also promising for this.

Looking forward;

My expected hold duration of the AUDS trade will be no longer then 6 weeks. While this position is open I will continue to accumulate cash for another renewed long term position. I am keen to get my long term core resource positions back to a 20% weighting and for it to be more internationally driven (5-6%) in an international resource (potentially ASX:WIRE or ASX: GDX)

Onwards & Upwards...

 

[BossMan.]

My thoughts

As outlined prior this is more of a journal for me. So I will write my thoughts down.

AUDUSD has bounced today will be interested to see if the dollar strength continues to unwind over the next fortnight (the key is who gets the treasury spot). I think this is the biggest driver of the dollar volatility at the moment.

I am also looking at my portfolio more broadly. As I have mentioned previously I intend to trade FMG if we see iron ore slide back down to the $88 - $90 range.

In the absence of this my next likely LONG position will be ASX:WIRE when referring to a long position in my portfolio, I am speaking on a timescale of no less then 18 months in the absence of a major world event / life event.

I feel like ASX:WIRE could complement my portfolio well and provide additional international exposure.

This will bring us back to my target weightings once my position in AUDS is closed in the coming weeks;

Target Weightings;

Diversified Growth - 50%
Property - 20%
Resources - 20%
Speculative - 10%

In saying this, I do need to review whether VDBA fits the objectives of my portfolio or if I should rotate it into a SP500 / NASDAQ / US Growth Index

If I do rotate out of VDBA it won't be until I roll over on the 12 months of holding in mid-march. I will no doubt reassess the long term objectives again then.

Target was to out perform the ASX200, however I am currently losing by ~2.68%

Still beating a term deposit and there is still ~4 months to go so plenty of time to still achieve this!

Onwards & Upwards, thank you for reading my ramblings.