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AAR - Astral Resources

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IOT said:
new website up at www.anglo.com.au

looks pretty good hopefully generates some better publicity for them
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Yes this is a positive advancement and indicating where the focus is being Mandilla East high grade bedrock, Koongie Park and Victoria River Downs.

This will make it move very soon though.
"The drilling intersected a number of high grade intersections including 4m @ 105.1g/t Au (including 1m @ 383.2g/t Au)"

John Johns is one very clever person. AAR will be so cashed up this company is going to advance very strongly and convincingly into the next phase as a mid cap producing miner, to do as they indicate "Increasing Shareholder wealth". AAR will not remain at the current price for much longer. Conservatively this company is valued at over 20c per share on Koongie Park alone and this is discounting the inground resource value to 10% of total Jorc indicated resource. What it will be valued at when the Mandilla high grade bedrock and Victoria River Downs is announced is quite mind boggling. Let alone confirmation of Koongie Park testwork.

Feeling more confident now and I have one of my 'gut feelings' (that have never let me down) that the website has been prepared in advance of Koongie Park news on purpose, which is due shortly as they indicated in past reports.

And AAR is still yet to roadshow.
 
Hey Hangseng,

Yeah I saw the new web page too,

Hmmmm AGM is tomorrow, new web page finally given on Monday,

Sounds like management are trying to please shareholders pre AGM,

I reckon the 2nd round of gold sales will probably be announced tomorrow as well, that should give them another $6m-$8m in the bank

Now its obvious AAR will go up for a run, the question is how high will it go and will it finally break out this time?
 
Anyone go to the AGM?

Did they announce gold sales?

What did the presentation look like?

Where there any good questions targeted at Mgmt? How did they respond?


Any indications of how long to mine the other portion of Mandilla?

How long till Koongie PFS completed?

ANything else? Cheers
 
If u look at the 1 decade chart, AAR went up and down between 0.1 and 0.02. I would like to know if we could find out at 0.02, was the company profitable at that time? Does the price keep rising this time cos its really improving, or just speculation?
 

lol your a joke mate

1 decade are you ****ing serious?

Can you tell me what the 1 decade chart of BHP looks like? Are they profitable now?

Has anything happened in the last few years that may change this decade view? Chindia, naahhhhh your probably right
 

OK, not 1 decade. Try looking at the 2 year chart and see the same thing! Low of 0.01 - 0.02

Im new to the stock so just asking if anything substantial has changed in their operation or company.
 
imaginator said:
OK, not 1 decade. Try looking at the 2 year chart and see the same thing! Low of 0.01 - 0.02

Im new to the stock so just asking if anything substantial has changed in their operation or company.
Click to expand...

Fair enough,



If you read through this thread you'll get all the information you need,

The company has recently turned its first ever Profit and should be cashing in another $5m+ profit this year from more gold production

Have a read through you'll find it all
 

Thanks to Kawartha who just posted this elsewhere:

"Just attended AGM in Perth and was very interesting.

AAR now have $9.5 million in the bank and no funding will be required for some time.
It appear east mandilla is not a target at this stage until more drilling has been done due to the orebody formation but similarities to RMS is a possibility and was mentioned.

koongie is the main focus but more drilling required which will progress the resource and a project manager is still being sought.

Definite medium to long term hold as Koongie is one of the best base metal projects in the country and it was noted the good grades of copper at both sandiego and onedin.

Off to Melbourne for another agm and will post more later"
 
Got some figures from Anns.

24/09 Ann said :
12,434 ounces from 33,053 tonnes of ore

Approximately 50,000 tonnes of additional ore have been mined, which is estimated to contain more than 12,000 ounces of gold.

Today's Ann said :
a total of 20130 ozs were recovered from 78000 tonnes of ore

so totally they've got 20130 ozs gold not 24434 ozs?

$9m in bank. so all gold has been sold?

corrent me if I'm wrong.

Thanks.
 
Is there a trading halt?
The SP is not moving. 0 volume today

any news anticipated?

Im hoping to get in at 0.089
 
It hasn't traded yet because no one is willing to sell down. This stock seems to be held pretty tight by mid-long term investors lately.
 
spottygoose said:
Also this just posted: AGM presentation located on their web site at http://www.anglo.com.au/presentations.asp
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Well guys, read the presentation and must say it contained some very interesting information that now allows me to finally put together some proper YT style research,

I have been holding AAR since I first posted back in Septemeber and have been annoyed with its constant runs ups and fall backs, however after going to todays presentation I am happy to still be holding as in my view AAR is seriously undervalued.

I have crunched some numbers and can now confidentally say that I believe the company has a speculative value of 18c -20c

Research to follow shortly
 
AAR​


Mkt Structure

Shares = 500m




Mkt Cap @9.5c = $47.5m Current



Cash
$9.5m + I think more from upcoming treatment of some remaning stockpilled Ore


Projects


Mandilla Gold, 100%, W.A.

What Mandilla West has done is given AAR its first ever profit of $5.6m last year,

Now with this batch treatment, I'm betting they will be able to announce another profit this year of around $5m, more if they treat Mandilla East

Now they have announced a JORC at Mandilla Est of 356Kt's@3g/t Au = 35Koz's Au, should Net $5m

However Mandilla East has the potential to host much higher grade gold as evidenced by previous drilling


"High grade bedrock intersections achieved at East Mandilla including
1m @ 14.58g/t Au
1m @ 9.23g/t Au
1m @ 13.98g/t Au[/B]"



As I mention earlier on, Mandilla is actually 2-5kms East of RMS's Wattle Dam gold operation, a quick histroy lesson on RMS, shows that it too was developing its Wattle Dam gold mine as a simple cash cow project, ie it was never meant to be a company maker, however some deep holes below the base of the open pit operation intersected some amazing hits of gold

So given the proximity of Manidilla to Wattle Dam (ie 2-5kms) and given the fact that in the past AAR has had the following drill intersections at Mandillia

a spectacular result of 3m @ 250.07g/t Au (inc. 1m @ 739.76g/t Au).
This exceptional intersection is accompanied by other significant intersections
such as 1m @ 13.2g/t Au, 1m @ 11.2g/t Au, 1m @ 10.17g/t Au and 1m @
6.7g/t Au at depths of only 16 to 19 metres below surface. 3m @ 71.82g/t Au (inc. 1m @191.75g/t Au),
2m @ 38.95g/t Au, 2m @ 9.15g/t Au and 1m @ 11.8g/t Au



And these were all shallow holes, I firmly believe the potential exists for deep drilling at Mandilla to uncover a possible high grade gold section that would transform Madilla into the Jewel of AAR's projects, as it did with Wattle Dam to RMS.

In any event, the cashflows generated for this project should ensure that for the foreseable exploration future no fund raisings (ie Dilution) will be required.



Koongie VMS style Base Metals, 100%, W.A.

JORC 4.7Mt's@ 5.2%Zn + 1.2%Cu + 0.8%Pb + 30g/tAg

This project is made up of 2 parts, 1 appears to be shallow enough to be open pittable, the other which appears to be the bulk would best be accessed via underground mining.

The company has been undertaking metallurgical testing as well as Pre-Feasibilty Studies on the project.

To highlight the value of these VMS style deposits, the company has put a comparison of Koongie to other deposits and I believe the deposit is easily comparable to TZN's Angas or PDZ's Prairie Downs

Also the company has now announced an In-Situ value of $1.2Billion for Koongie, now the usual rule of thumb is to give a company a 10% EV (Enterprise Value) of the total IGV (In Ground Value) or In-Situ value of the deposit,

@ 10% = $120m however I do acknowledge there are some metallurgical/processing risks with Koongie and will thus discount this by 50%

This still gives an EV of $60m = 12c




Victoria Downs Zinc/Lead Base Metals, 100%, W.A.
The company continues to announce an exploration target of 50Mt's-100Mt's@10% Zinc

Now I don't know about you, but I don't think the guys running this company are rampers, if anything they're too quiet and say too little, so for them to have this target says to me there is a good chance they may have something big at Victoria Downs,

Now 50Mt's-100Mt's@10% Zinc would be worth $12B- $24B Insitu at current prices, however it is just that a target

I think $5m-$10m exploration upside is fair to price into AAR's share price


Feysville Gold/Nickel, 100%, W.A.
The Feysville Project consists of all mineral rights attached to two mining leases located 16km SSE of Kalgoorlie. The project is situated in the geological / structural corridor, bounded by the Boulder Lefroy Fault that hosts the world class deposits of Kalgoorlie and St Ives as well as other substantial deposits in the New Celebration, Kambalda and Hannans
South areas. The project also contains an extensive strike length of an ultramafic unit which may correlate with the ultramafic horizon that hosts nickel sulphide deposits at Kambalda 30km to the south.



Pinnacles Gold, 40%, W.A.
The wholly owned exploration licence of 4 sub-blocks is located immediately east of the Pinnacle workings 20km east of Cue. The area is interpreted to contain portion of the felsic unit that hosts most of the mineralisation at the Tuckabianna mine. Alloy Resources Limited may earn a 60% interest by expenditure of $150,000 over a three year period.


Valuation

Cash = $9.5m = 2c (approx)
Mandilla East JORC = $5m = 1c
Mandilla bonaza exploration upside = $5m =1c
Konngie @ 5% EV (ie discounted by 50% of Mkt Norm) = 12c
Victoria Downs potential $5m - $10m = 1c-2c

Total = 17c - 18c

Now I am not a financial advisor and this is not a formal valuation or anything, its just my opinion, but at under 10c AAR seems cheap, if they bring Koongie in it could be worth many multiples of the current share price, gold is strong and this ensures profitability for Mandilla East (albeit less than Mandilla West)

The exploration potential of Mandilla and Victoria Downs is large, especially Victoria Downs

Most important for me, the company has succefully mined Mandilla and generated strong cash flows, as a result they have not had to dilute the capital of AAR with SPPs or placements (ie like RMI)


Thoughts?
 

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hangseng said:
YT I believe your estimates are well calculated but also quite conservative.
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Hey Hangseng,

Yeah I know I'm being conservative, but I prefer to be conservative than over optimistic, even then with a "conservative" view I can still easily justify a 17c-18c target for AAR, now that makes you think, if we through caution to the wind what would we get?

I mean valuing Koongie on an Industry Norm of 10% of I.G.V./InSitu = $120m = 24c on its own

Chart wise there is now clear support at 8c-9c but for some strange reason the stock keeps failing to break 12c-13c, eventually though it should and will break this as it has to get re-rated

I mean focusing purely on Koongie, the most comparable deposits are TZN's Angus and PDZ'z Prarie Downs

The main thing to note however is both TZN's and PDZ's deposits lack COPPER and thus imo are inferior as they are more succeptible to Single commodity price swings The thing about AAR's Angas is like JML's Jaguar, its diversified with Copper, Zinc, Lead and Silver, a VMS if you will.


TZN currently carries a Mkt Cap of $400m, however they also have other substantial projects so it would be incorrect to infer that Angas accounts for the bulk of this value, however prior to any of thier other projects gaining recognition (ie Early-Mid 2006) TZN carried a mkt capitalisation of $100m-$150m, which was reflective of the 10% I.G.V of Angas As Angas moved further along the development path a premium to the 10% was given

PDZ's mkt cap is $110m and its main deposit/project is Prarie Downs, now PDZ is also only in a PFS type stage yet their mkt cap is $100m

BSM carries a mkt cap of $40m and they are mining via toll treatment a very small but high grade Zinc/Lead deposit, they do have substantial exploration potential, but then so does AAR at Mandilla and Victoria Downs,

Now why does say PDZ carry a mkt cap double AAR with an inferior deposit and no cash flow operations? Same resoan why BSM carries a mkt cap close to AAR when all it has is a small cash cow project (like AAR's Mandilla) with huge exploration potential (like AAR's Victoria Downs)

The answer is simple, BROKER COVERAGE!

Fat Prophets, Hartleys and Patersons were all over TZN early days hence why people knew and appreciated its true value, likewise Hartleys were the main backers of JML hence why the mkt always knew its true value,

Patersons has backed and provided research reports for PDZ and BSM, again why the mkt can appreciate the potential and the value,

But AAR has no real coverage, FAT Prophets did cover AAR a while back as did Intersuisse, see below for important extracts,

Bottom line is management have now given Koongie a Insitu value = to me it shows their getting more and more serious with, the re-rating is coming, its only amatter of time

Research Reports
http://www.anglo.com.au/_content/documents/538.pdf

http://www.anglo.com.au/_content/documents/537.pdf
 

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My sentiments exactly YT and the reason I have been following AAR for so long. Up until recently I have traded however I have decided to only hold now. Simple calculations have demonstrated I would have been far better off not trading AAR at all and just maintained my initial holding (unless I had managed to exactly perfect every one of the highs and lows, which isn't realistic). Now I only accumulate and hold for the long term, returns will now be exponential on this stock.

Good work, but you still have left out the huge Cobalt potential No matter AAR is only going one way now and that is North.
 
You make some great points hangseng. You are right. It is clear that only very conservative assumptions have been made. YT is playing it safe. But think about the additional upside
Time to enjoy the sat sun:
 
Hi YOUNG TRADER just wondering if you have time if you could do a quick summary and valuation on CVI. Cheers in advance.
 
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