AAR - Astral Resources

[tasmanian]

YT,

I feel the same and I cant remember how many times I,ve felt that way.
100,s and 100,s Im sure.

The way I look at it AAR is now in an uptrend but to really run it has to break 13c strongly(then hold on because this will run very very hard when it does).

Today is just like cleaning out some of the weak sellers imo.Has to do that to eventually get past 13c.Notice buyers are back and this could still close at
11c today.
It might take some more time maybe weeks yet but as long as the USA doesnt crash AAR will eventually crack 13/14c then hold on baby it will be worth the wait.Alot of people are still on the sidelines waiting for this too breakout imo.

 

[Scuba]

Tasmania, what do you think of the ever increasing stocks of base metals? Bloomberg had a couple of articles that could take a bit of wind out of AAR and other miner's sails...
Anyway, AAR do seem to be holding the goods and have a determination that should see tenements turn into projects. Not that I'm any expert, just seems they progress steadily and regularly...

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey Maz and Tas,

I love the fundamentals as I have said and so know that one day my baby will grow up into a big boy,

But its frustrating to realise that I could have sold some (like 1/5th of my big position) and then bought back 15%-20% cheaper,

And why do sellers stack up the way they do? 5m@11c 5m@11.5c?

 

[tasmanian]

Scuba,

not really sure about the bloomberg figures myself but theres always poitive/negatine thing written just depends on who you follow really.Id dont take an interest in those types of figures anymore just follow what the chart tells me.

AARs telling me atm its a chance of going back to 13c.It will be a great buy if it breaks that mark imo.might be better to wait till that happens.I might have got in abit early but I like that its a small miner making a profit charts moving back up so decided to get a parcel and will buy more when it breaks out/well if it breaks out.

The way im looking at it is ill hold aar as long as stay above the low
9c otherwise ill sell and probaly wont buy back until it breaks 13.5c.

best of luck with it

 

[Scuba]

Mob mentality YT? Sorry about the tech readings for you. Hindsight is great but, look at the volumes, less than in the 15 minutes before close of trade when Q1 report released... Could it just be panick and opportunism without the understanding of the fundamentals you, Hangseng and others have shown?

Yes Tas, my understanding is that of the noob but some things just make sense... Hear you on the figures and quotes from BB, just been looking at Kitco regularly following their news links... I guess thats why I'm here so regularly too, seems to be alot of quality discussion (though that's a bit difficult to qualify being so fresh... )...

 

[disarray]

i think its a big fat wall put up by previous "smart money" accumulations. the wall used to live at 10c and 10.5c but seeing demand has pushed the price up to a base of 10c the .5/tick level has been reached so the wall has been massively reinforced to prevent further breakouts. over the last few weeks the wall was around 6 million shares at 10-10.5 now it stands at almost double that with 11 odd million at 11-11.5.

looking at the chart since the august correction you can see obvious evidence of accumulation based on the consistency of support floors and the vehemence with which any attempted breakouts are beaten down. this is a good sign that people with lots of money to play with are hoarding this stock and trying to get their grubby fingers on as many as they can before they pull their supply to get the share price to take off and then cash in. this is great news for us for several reasons - 1. mid term the stock is being set up to take off and 2. it leaves obvious footprints on the chart we can play with.

todays volume is light and this could be for several reasons, not the least of which is the state of the wider market which is taking a pounding, but also general caution because this stock is so obviously part of a wider game plan by bigger bank accounts than us. if hangseng and yt like the fundamentals of this stock then you can bet there are brokers out there with access to teams of researchers and large pools of money who had their eye on it for a while and made their move after august.

fundamentals are great, they lend weight to technical analysis, and technical analysis relies heavily on psychology because behind every movement in shareprice is a pile of money with a human at the helm. i've been enjoying this stock for a while now

 

[tasmanian]

Hey Maz and Tas,

I love the fundamentals as I have said and so know that one day my baby will grow up into a big boy,

But its frustrating to realise that I could have sold some (like 1/5th of my big position) and then bought back 15%-20% cheaper,

And why do sellers stack up the way they do? 5m@11c 5m@11.5c?

I know what u mean YT with the buyers stacking up makes it hard sometimes.

But it is a joy to watch when a hold line is taken out in a few seconds.
Too many people want to buy a few hundred thousand shares and make a quick couple of grand.Better to hold a few months then there is the chance of making a whole lot more.

 

[Scuba]

Disarray, really interested in your post. Read your last post just over a week ago a couple of times too to let the logic sink in. (As I look for the knowledge) Seems logical, sadly I still rely on gut feelings for posts I read, but one has to trust self eh? .5 tick line is quite a hurdle eh? (I already increased my holding over the last couple of weeks...)
Could you post a chart Disarray showing what led to your interpretations? (I am reading on candlesticks now and pretty well all I can get ahold of at the moment...)

 

[camaybay]

A quick AAR chart to ponder.
Consolidation at 0.085, 0.095 and now 10 with the 0.5 cent step block to overcome. Analysis comment ? Charts are good. It doesn't look like it will break out with the diminishing money flow. IMO

Cheers
DYOR

 

[disarray]

scuba, on page 30 is the chart i use, but any pretty much any chart is fine. i find it helps me to draw support and resistance lines, and i find some prices tend to move between ranges with decreasing volatility until it gets tight and breaks out.

the ideas i currently use are a mix of some of nick radges work (he has some free volume analysis papers available on his website here), dutchy3's descending triangle breakouts thread here and some posts by joulesm1 a while ago where he posted some charts pointing out support floors being evidence of accumulation while keeping supply flowing to stop prices breaking out too far. unfortunately he deleted the posts about 10 minutes after he posted them but i was browsing at the time and it really got me thinking. i might have a copy/paste somewhere if i can find it.

basically nearly everything i know and think about stock trading is based on information from this site and there are some fine minds here who generously share their knowledge, for which i and my bank account are very grateful. the only other thing that got me going was stan weinsteins book because a jew with a mullet and a pinky ring just has to be a money making machine. good luck with your own pursuit of knowledge and profit

 

[hangseng]

A quick AAR chart to ponder.
Consolidation at 0.085, 0.095 and now 10 with the 0.5 cent step block to overcome. Analysis comment ? Charts are good. It doesn't look like it will break out with the diminishing money flow. IMO

Cheers
DYOR

I agree entirely with you. I would add that as good as the report was the real news is still yet to come. Once that does AAR will breach resistance at 13.

This was a trader run on hype and was never sustainable. AAR will go and will be taken by the big players not the day traders and T3's.

I believe a settling between 9.5 and 10 until then.

 

[adobee]

Up till now I have never really looked into AAR, however after spending some time reading I really like what I see and feel confident paying for an asset which is making money and getting the potential of a huge resource for free..
Theres players and then there are stayers.. I would suggest AAR will be a stayer.. Under 9.5c I am going to keep on topping up. .

 

[kpas]

Agree.

But I think the market needs a very strong annoucement for it to break it's current cycle.

Especially with the US markets scaring people into cashing their speccies.

 

[disarray]

i think aar should have broken by now but it hasn't so here is a quick rundown of what i see.

the shareprice should run because it has a pretty impetuous chart with several attempted breakouts ending in higher support bases, cash equal to around half its market cap, further gold potential on site with a bullish gold market, solid future projects on the cards which can be comfortably funded, and a kinda blue sky trading range within reach. i say kinda because it has 10 year old baggage and i'm not sure how to factor that in. so i look around and see stocks with nothing but licenses, numbers and promises breaking out so why not aar? a few things -

management. aar has recently made a $7 million dollar profit, the first in 20 years. while this is a sign of optimism it also begs the question why did it take 20 years to make a profit??? they are also lousy communicators, wait ages between updates and a have a crappy website that hasn't been updated since the beginning of the year. the market moves to news ("buy the rumour sell the fact" etc.) and they don't have any. roadshows, regular announcements, being a squeaky wheel attracts attention and therefore money, but this mob are largely mute so theres no favours there.

commodities. while gold and silver prices are good, zinc and lead are pretty bad at the moment and looking at the chart for those metals its looking pretty lousy short term. so any value to the shareprice coming from KP potential is pretty depressed.

america. these people are tanking because their bankers got greedy and went insane so they are dragging us down with them. this is bad news for the short term but i'm going to put a positive spin on it and hope it provides impetus for our market to decouple itself from america and become more independent and regional. but in the meantime money is bailing out of the speccies which includes aar.

liquidity. there are half a billion shares sloshing around out there so theres a lot of weight to move if you want things to happen. since the august cleanup there have been 430 odd million shares with plenty of low volume days just slowly chipping away at the pile. i'd like to see a top 20, and i pray for the day ASIC pins HIN's or broker ID's on share transactions so we can track who is doing what, but thats probably wishful thinking. a lot of volume appears after the price breakouts to beat the price down (eg. 3 weeks of 1-2 million shares traded then quick frenzies of 20-30 million), and this volume has to come from somewhere, so i assume the accumulation floors. other ideas here are welcome.

the chart. looking at the chart we see low volume support bases forming with the odd high volume breakout being contemptuously slapped down. the blue A, B and C are the bases which form at higher plateaus suggesting a strong support pushing the price up. but we see at red 1,2 and 3 how the price is hammered down with much higher volume when it makes a serious break into the .5c / tick range. even an awful day on the market like we had today its floor is still closing higher than the last accumulation base so interest is there, and like us there is money out there that thinks this company is currently worth buying. it's just being a bitch.

market depth. this stock has had a wall up for ages, originally at 10 and now at 11.5. i think its a psychological thing, like when you are playing risk and you pile armies into a border territory to discourage people from venturing there. in the game sense it makes it expensive in armies to take it out, and in this case it means it will cost about 1.2 million to break the 11.5 - 12 wall which is a reasonable committment for speccie players. yes a whale could swallow it up but they are generally playing with bigger fish so its tailored for the size of the playing field.

my feeling is a reasonable range for aar would be 12ish cents, 13 is blue sky but that price has the irrational exuberance hangover from august, so that may be a bit optimistic. however i think that this is what we are shooting for shortish term. it would require decent news to break that, and better base metal prices to maintain above that level. but that is just a feeling based on the whole greed / fear thing.

tl;dr version -

aar has good fundamentals and it should be worth more than it is. we know that, thats why we put a lot of money into it, but the market isn't playing so just hold on, resist the attempts by bigger money to shake you out and if you are a believer in rationality (though the market isn't at all rational) then accumulate more.

i'm not a financial advisor, just sharing ideas.

 

[dannyf]

It's getting frustrating to say the least.

Some more positive news out of AAR would be enough to give it the run it needs, or a FP recommendation.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

It's getting frustrating to say the least.

Some more positive news out of AAR would be enough to give it the run it needs, or a FP recommendation.

I couldn't agree more

It is annoying and frustrating, I think I see why people stag profits so quickly, they too are probably tired of waiting for the "breakout"

I still love the fundamentals though and will wait

 

[dannyf]

Admittedly I shouldn't complain too much. I bought in at 3.9c

Makes up for all the money I lost on JPR I suppose.

 

[adobee]

I am setting this long term (I guess 20yrs should just about do it!)
I dont mind the quietness of the directors.. I like these guys.. slow and steady and not full of crap, I am of the mind frame that these guys have something good dont need to spruik it and know that when the time comes they will be in the money, they arent looking to make an announcement a week and cash in..

To catch an elephant you dont go running up yelling and screaming!!

 

[ideaforlife]

Another down day for AAR. diarrays gives very good analysis for AAR from all perspectives. Looking at the pattern of past breakouts I have a feeling that it might take another a few months for AAR to truly breakout. Traders want to accumulate as much as possible before push price to a new level while cashing in.

Any thoughts folks.

 

[hangseng]

I agree entirely with you. I would add that as good as the report was the real news is still yet to come. Once that does AAR will breach resistance at 13.

This was a trader run on hype and was never sustainable. AAR will go and will be taken by the big players not the day traders and T3's.

I believe a settling between 9.5 and 10 until then.

As I stated AAR won't go anywhere until the 'real news' comes.

Look closely at the trading on the day it ran up hard and the next. It was pushed up by daytraders, one even admitting on another forum he ran up the stock hard (and pumped it) to 10, then when it reached 11.5 the next day he was out and said thanks to all openly.

I would be surprised if AAR broke support at 9.1 but if it does it will go to 8.2.

Real news being confirmation of Koongie Park or at minimum bedrock gold at Mandilla to keep it up. For now I am expecting nothing to occur.