AAR - Astral Resources

[YOUNG_TRADER]

What do you think of Gerard Burg's (of NAB melbourne- minerals and energy) Zinc to drop 11% in 2008: Study story quoted here at Buisness standard dot com do any of you think it a major concern in relation to AAR's potential KP project and outlined plans in general?

Scuba, if your talking a down turn in Zinc prices, then yes it will affect AAR's projects, just like it will effect ZFX to OXR to JML to TZN to PDZ to PEM to CBH to KZL,

But the point is Koongie is a multi commodity deposit, containing good levels of Cu and so the company is not as exposed to the Zinc price as say PDZ, BSM or TZN, especially since Mandilla is GOLD

Also I reckon general views on commodities are more suited to the commodity specific threads

Hey Hangseng,

Yeah I know I'm being conservative, but I prefer to be conservative than over optimistic, even then with a "conservative" view I can still easily justify a 17c-18c target for AAR, now that makes you think, if we through caution to the wind what would we get?

I mean valuing Koongie on an Industry Norm of 10% of I.G.V./InSitu = $120m = 24c on its own

Chart wise there is now clear support at 8c-9c but for some strange reason the stock keeps failing to break 12c-13c, eventually though it should and will break this as it has to get re-rated

I mean focusing purely on Koongie, the most comparable deposits are TZN's Angus and PDZ'z Prarie Downs

The main thing to note however is both TZN's and PDZ's deposits lack COPPER and thus imo are inferior as they are more succeptible to Single commodity price swings The thing about AAR's Angas is like JML's Jaguar, its diversified with Copper, Zinc, Lead and Silver, a VMS if you will.

TZN currently carries a Mkt Cap of $400m, however they also have other substantial projects so it would be incorrect to infer that Angas accounts for the bulk of this value, however prior to any of thier other projects gaining recognition (ie Early-Mid 2006) TZN carried a mkt capitalisation of $100m-$150m, which was reflective of the 10% I.G.V of Angas As Angas moved further along the development path a premium to the 10% was given

PDZ's mkt cap is $110m and its main deposit/project is Prarie Downs, now PDZ is also only in a PFS type stage yet their mkt cap is $100m

BSM carries a mkt cap of $40m and they are mining via toll treatment a very small but high grade Zinc/Lead deposit, they do have substantial exploration potential, but then so does AAR at Mandilla and Victoria Downs,

Now why does say PDZ carry a mkt cap double AAR with an inferior deposit and no cash flow operations? Same resoan why BSM carries a mkt cap close to AAR when all it has is a small cash cow project (like AAR's Mandilla) with huge exploration potential (like AAR's Victoria Downs)

The answer is simple, BROKER COVERAGE!

Fat Prophets, Hartleys and Patersons were all over TZN early days hence why people knew and appreciated its true value, likewise Hartleys were the main backers of JML hence why the mkt always knew its true value,

Patersons has backed and provided research reports for PDZ and BSM, again why the mkt can appreciate the potential and the value,

But AAR has no real coverage, FAT Prophets did cover AAR a while back as did Intersuisse, see below for important extracts,

Bottom line is management have now given Koongie a Insitu value = to me it shows their getting more and more serious with, the re-rating is coming, its only amatter of time

Research Reports
http://www.anglo.com.au/_content/documents/538.pdf

http://www.anglo.com.au/_content/documents/537.pdf

 

[hangseng]

YT the reason I quoted the Zn price is it is from the same article the poster has refered to. It is higher than our estimates.

Zinc needs to drop significantly to affect AAR and that quite simply is not forecast by any analyst worldwide, in fact the reverse is forecast when it matters most to AAR and the most import people SHAREHOLDERS.

IT WILL MAKE NO DIFFERENCE based on the posters referenced report.

 

[Scuba]

OK Hangseng, YT, I have read all that has been posted in this thread which includes your posts over the last day or so, in fact it was a very interesting Sunday's reading as you two were almost playing tennis with your posting. It was also enjoyable for me to watch this thread grow once again made even better as I had been reading the report from Anglo which came in the mail on Friday...
HS, yes I do need to pay more detailed attention as I cannot recall reading in the valuations where the price of zinc was used to extrapolate a value for that part of the Koongie Park project. I will learn as there are some obviously talented and learned people here at this forum site and contributors to this thread (some of whom have taken the time as you have to respond to my questions), thankyou.

YT has also posted a reply as I've typed, again, thanks for your response. Merely looking for educated and valid responses to news and articles I'm reading/ discovering rather than talking about downturns YT. Koongie Park gets better by the day as I read more of it, the "Fly through" on the site was good for me as the graphical representation of the ore bodies was so much easier to comprehend (for me). Lo capisco, the multi commodity deposit, Zn, Cu, Ag, Co... My understanding of the companies PDZ, BSM, TZN will have to wait until I have time to research them...
I enjoyed reading the Friday post from YT (#656), when I got in after work that afternoon, the same day the report arrived in the mail...
Hangseng just posted again too, "YT the reason I quoted the Zn price is it is from the same article the poster has refered to. It is higher than our estimates." Great!

Once again, thank you both for the insight you bring.
Dave

 

[hangseng]

You are welcome scuba and your post was valuable in the sense it keeps us all informed and on our toes.

I have followed AAR and researched (aided by some learned and experienced mining and metallurgical friends) for so long now I don't get too many surprises. Occasionally I re-read and find oversights but that only strengthens my faith in this stock.

Keep up the searching and contrbuting, who knows what it may bring.

Watch very closely for any development of the closed nearby Nicholsons Find process plant. It is within throwing distance of Koongie Park and AAR management have made mention of it in the past. This could easily be upgraded for this project and AAR would aquire it for a song. What does this equate to? Early production potential (mid to late 2009 earliest though) and low capex startup costs. I am not the only one thinking like this now.

 

[Scuba]

...Edited for brevity....
Watch very closely for any development of the closed nearby Nicholsons Find process plant. It is within throwing distance of Koongie Park and AAR management have made mention of it in the past. This could easily be upgraded for this project and AAR would aquire it for a song. What does this equate to? Early production potential (mid to late 2009 earliest though) and low capex startup costs. I am not the only one thinking like this now.

I don't know too much detail about the plant but in reading of it's proximity to KP, was reminded of Matrix metals (MRX) venture at Leichhardt where they had processing facilities in place in needing very little work to recommence processing and furthermore a relatively minor capital outlay to bring processing up to nearly double the start up capacity...

 

[hangseng]

I don't know too much detail about the plant but in reading of it's proximity to KP, was reminded of Matrix metals (MRX) venture at Leichhardt where they had processing facilities in place in needing very little work to recommence processing and furthermore a relatively minor capital outlay to bring processing up to nearly double the start up capacity...

Exactly.

I have been involved in plant relocations and upgrades of closed plants during my years in construction and it is done at relatively low startup cost compared to building a new mine. Also no where near as labour intensive.

I am watching this aspect very closely and have sent out some spies so to speak. In reality I have requested my associates in the construction and mineral processing areas to keep their ears to the ground.

This is a very real possibility.

 

[imaginator]

oi what happened to AAR, suddenly its 0.90. Previously stuck at 0.93 for some time in the afternoon. Someone just sold big volume? can someone check?

its 0.9 now.

 

[i4560011]

oi what happened to AAR, suddenly its 0.90. Previously stuck at 0.93 for some time in the afternoon. Someone just sold big volume? can someone check?

its 0.9 now.

Yeah someone just sold big on the market, probably a company holder offloading

12/05/07 15:15:11 0.09 0.09 0.095 1045000

 

[gordon2007]

Well one could think of it as a good buying oppurtunity, perhaps the "smart money" is trying to shake nervous people loose. Or perhaps, this warning on buying resource stocks, http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22872131-14334,00.html is scaring people into selling all their speccies.

oi what happened to AAR, suddenly its 0.90. Previously stuck at 0.93 for some time in the afternoon. Someone just sold big volume? can someone check?

its 0.9 now.

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Time Price Volume Value
15:15:09 0.09 40,957 3,686.13
15:15:09 0.09 4,043 363.87
15:15:08 0.09 185,957 16,736.13
15:15:08 0.09 58,000 5,220.00
15:15:08 0.091 25,000 2,275.00
15:15:08 0.091 100,000 9,100.00
15:15:08 0.091 100,000 9,100.00
15:15:08 0.091 40,000 3,640.00
15:15:08 0.092 250,000 23,000.00
15:15:08 0.092 98,000 9,016.00
15:15:08 0.092 108,043 9,939.956
15:15:08 0.093 10,000 930.00
15:15:08 0.093 10,000 930.00
15:15:08 0.093 15,000 1,395.00
14:18:41 0.093 100,000 XT 9,300.00
13:15:24 0.092 91,957 8,460.044
13:15:24 0.092 70,000 6,440.00
13:15:24 0.092 66,900 6,154.80
13:15:24 0.092 190,000 17,480.00
13:15:24 0.092 10,000 920.00

 

[Scuba]

Exactly.

I have been involved in plant relocations and upgrades of closed plants during my years in construction and it is done at relatively low startup cost compared to building a new mine. Also no where near as labour intensive.

I am watching this aspect very closely and have sent out some spies so to speak. In reality I have requested my associates in the construction and mineral processing areas to keep their ears to the ground.

This is a very real possibility.

It was a Gold strike at Nicolson's yes? I couldn't find out too much (anything) about the facilities there. KP is quite diverse in the commodities, I wonder how much modification would be required?
In fact, would it be possible for AAR to have signed or negotiated a contract price for the old processing plant without notifying the ASX? Because I would have thought by announcing it's possible usefulness in publications it would give the seller pretty good negotiating power with regard to the price... I agree that any announcement with regard to the plant and intended work/upgrade on it will be a good sign for the price of stock and movement toward processing KP.
Hopefully HS, your "spies" might have some interesting news for us sooner rather than later, my biggest hopes are that the metallurgy looks good and that the board are as conservative as has been suggested....

 

[adobee]

I read in the paper this morning x strata is taking over anglo american resources and having just woken up got very excited.. Unfortunately I realised I own Anglo australian resources .. and had better get ready for work again !

 

[hangseng]

It was a Gold strike at Nicolson's yes? I couldn't find out too much (anything) about the facilities there. KP is quite diverse in the commodities, I wonder how much modification would be required?
In fact, would it be possible for AAR to have signed or negotiated a contract price for the old processing plant without notifying the ASX? Because I would have thought by announcing it's possible usefulness in publications it would give the seller pretty good negotiating power with regard to the price... I agree that any announcement with regard to the plant and intended work/upgrade on it will be a good sign for the price of stock and movement toward processing KP.
Hopefully HS, your "spies" might have some interesting news for us sooner rather than later, my biggest hopes are that the metallurgy looks good and that the board are as conservative as has been suggested....

My source has informed me that the modification could be done relatively easily, as I believed would be the case. Cost he couldn't place an estimate, but indicated it would be far less than building a new plant and much quicker.

The final modification and costing would rely completely on the required CPS design parameters put in place by Kwan Wong.

Interesting times ahead.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hmmmm,

Has gone quiet over here

Any updates Hangseng?


I agree rehabing an old plant would be much much cheaper than buying and installing a new one, but most importantly it would be much much much quicker!

Its the delays (and resulting cost blow outs) but mainly the delays in sourcing equipment etc that is halting and effecting mining projects,

I really hope they can go ahead with the refurbishment of this old plant

 

[hangseng]

Hmmmm,

Has gone quiet over here

Any updates Hangseng?


I agree rehabing an old plant would be much much cheaper than buying and installing a new one, but most importantly it would be much much much quicker!

Its the delays (and resulting cost blow outs) but mainly the delays in sourcing equipment etc that is halting and effecting mining projects,

I really hope they can go ahead with the refurbishment of this old plant

No nothing new, just waiting like everyone else now.

The refurbishment option is very real and the fact it was mentioned by Anglo themselves, and they consistently place the Nicholsons Find plant on their maps shows me it is in the forefront of their thinking and plans.

An arrangement such as Mandilla is not out of the question either.

Can't do much more than wait now. The fundamentals are there, we just need the direction this is taking.

 

[imaginator]

Hey speaking about low prices, this afternoon the ASX got hit.

AAR is only .89 now, looks really good price to enter again......

What do u guys think?

my fingers getting itchy.........

 

[hangseng]

Very interesting, reverse nearology in play.

Seems 3D Resources likes AAR' Koongie Park.
http://www.3dresources.com.au/Projects/Koongie_Park/

Now I wonder why?

 

[kenworth69]

I visited Nicholson Find in 2003 when it was operated by REWAH. It was a real cowboy operation and the small treatment plant was second hand and in poor condition. I dont think they ever got it to operate properly boefore the operation closed down. Im sure that plant would not be useful.

Believe it or not but TeckCominco/Xstrata are currently trucking lead or zinc concentrate from near Fitzroy Crossing (Pillara mine) to Mount Isa.

I can still envisage a tie up btw these two operations.

Are you still in VRE hang seng.

 

[hangseng]

Yes my sources have informed me it is in poor condition but also not beyond refurbishment.

Lets see.

 

[alankew]

Looks like this could be waking up,could be news on the way or just the anticipated rise in POG.Have noticed a few small goldies increasing the last few days but this seems a better play than some that are moving