23rd of October cometh...

[noirua]

Noirua - 22 Sep 2020 - 13:17:10 - 436 of 437

1929 Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression - Documentary




23rd October cometh...

 

[noirua]

 

[tech/a]

Very Very different.

Sovereign Powers like the USA /Aust/GB are no longer required to
keep spending within the Gold Standard.

FIAT Monetary policy and Modern Monetary Theory
mean that Govts can print whatever they like.
They are NOT creating a debt----only to themselves.
They can write off that debt or part of that debt whenever they
want with a simple key stroke. They can also supply billions from
the reserve Bank with a different few key strokes.

Sovereign Economies are NOT run like businesses or Households.
They Cannot go broke and we who pay taxes cant and wont go broke
due to their stimulus spending.

The balance is and always has been between Recession and Inflation.
Inflation is the enemy not spending!

No Sovereign powers are going broke not even the USA!

 

[fergee]

History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes.........

 

[tech/a]

(1) Im interested in Why and How there will be something similar to the 1929 Crash.
Why would the stock market crash?

(2) What is the long term outlook seen by those on the Forum? (Say 5-10 years)
Presuming a cure for COVID and or Vaccination and no World wars.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

as long as we don't get Smoot Hawley type legislation, then there will be a way out.

Otherwise, markets will always overshoot, both ways. Probably worse now, with 24 hour markets.

Interest rates will be lower for longer, probably too long, then IF the inflation genie emerges, fasten seat belts.

 

[tech/a]

Dona

Way out of what exactly?

Over shoot ? The pandemic caused a massive over shoot.
Monetary policy has seen the DLIA and other Indexes
back to where they were in the 2 years prior. Ranging by about
10-15%

Interest rates will only rise in line with inflation.
There is only likely to be inflation if the employment rate nears
4-5 %.

Why do you believe we need to fasten our seat belts?
What's going to drive it?---the rough ride.

 

[noirua]

(1) Im interested in Why and How there will be something similar to the 1929 Crash.
Why would the stock market crash?

(2) What is the long term outlook seen by those on the Forum? (Say 5-10 years)
Presuming a cure for COVID and or Vaccination and no World wars.

The comment 'it is never different it is always the same' is one I've firmly believed and why I've stayed in 50% to 70% cash for quite a number of years now. The slide in the gold price in America on a no stimulus package move by President Trump shows it doesn't take much for a sudden reversal of fortunes. The 1929 crash was forecast a year before and the Fed. in the states said then the market was highly speculative. Comments on it being overbought due to Institutions only getting very low interest rates to park their cash shows, in my opinion, that higher interest rates eventually will see these same Institutions go back to cash from shares. Australia and the UK will catch a cold even though events are not made by them.

The future 5 years look grim and held for the moment due to these stimulus measures, bailouts etc., and interest rates in USA, Europe and others near zero look set to fall further at first before driving on to the 5% to 8% range as these countries borrow trillions of dollars. Wages may remain where they are or fall slightly against increased inflation. The only way for near bust companies to survive is to close up shop for awhile like Cineworld in UK and USA and dump employees. Or realise that less customers means far less employees and less profitable outlets must close.

 

[tech/a]

Noirua

When you say these countries borrow Trillions

Where exactly are they borrowing the trillions from?
Who exactly do they have to repay?

 

[qldfrog]

Interest rates will only rise in line with inflation.
There is only likely to be inflation if the employment rate nears
4-5 %.

I think the link between employment and inflation is now obsolete; whether people work or not is irrelevant, as most jobs are now fake, see the jobkeeper and jobseekers as the model.
inflation is more IMHO a psyche issue than anything else in the west now.
I might be wrong..just some thoughts vs the classical view

 

[noirua]

Noirua

When you say these countries borrow Trillions

Where exactly are they borrowing the trillions from?
Who exactly do they have to repay?

National debt of the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Australian government debt - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List of countries by government debt - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[tech/a]

I can see how employment figures are very skewed
Very little employment is classified as employed!
most are under employed - not getting the hrs they
want.
This would make the employment figures worse
killing inflation.

can you expand on Psyche and it’s roll?

 

[tech/a]

National debt of the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

YesI understand there is a debt but who owns the debt?
who supply’s the trillions.
Who needs to be re paid.
who could send —— say the USA broke?

The issuer is the US govt it HAS TO. Print funds FIRST.
As the issuer it can write off debt as it sees fit.
it can’t and won’t go broke.

Businesses / Banks and the public are the borrowers of funds owned
and owed to the Issuer all can and do go broke.

the issuer isn’t in debt a deficit is an illusion to allow fiscal policies to balance
And re balance economies.

 

[noirua]

YesI understand there is a debt but who owns the debt?
who supply’s the trillions.
Who needs to be re paid.
who could send —— say the USA broke?

The issuer is the US govt it HAS TO. Print funds FIRST.
As the issuer it can write off debt as it sees fit.
it can’t and won’t go broke.

Businesses / Banks and the public are the borrowers of funds owned
and owed to the Issuer all can and do go broke.

the issuer isn’t in debt a deficit is an illusion to allow fiscal policies to balance
And re balance economies.

I only wish my knowledge on Government debt was better. However, that knowledge is likely to be of near zero benefit to me.

China's debt is for instance quite hidden and complicated by it being spread over many small areas in all provinces and the total figure never properly put together. Only interest I do have is with The British Virgin Islands BVI where nearly 700,000 Chinese companies are registered. In addition many in Hong Kong who hold mainland Chinese assets. One private company in Hong Kong which I have an interest in likes to be registered there as an AGM can be held by just two people talking over the telephone and no need for a secretary so very easy. The Chinese Government approves of this setup so there must be something in this somewhere.

The lending and security laws in BVI are expertly managed in very many jurisdictions against loans. Also these loans are hidden or more politely obscure. There are companies setup that will explore the loan structures though individuals not wanting to be known will vary the sometimes complex structures so they always appear out of date and addresses no longer used. The Belize tax haven is often included as few records are required and no meetings or AGMs. Some financial records should be kept but the Government never asks.

It is a crooked world and the biggest crooks in high places. Many of these people are members of the UKs House of Lords where lending their name to the books of a company brings in revenue untaxed.