Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

The media is once again warning that Australia, this time the south-east, is about to be “smashed” by extreme weather.

A quick check of weather forecasts for NSW, ACT, Vic, SA and Tas finds nothing out of the ordinary, just the sort of weather that’s to be expected in Winter.

I do wish they’d drop the sensationalist rubbish and stick to facts and reasonably based hypothesis regarding the future instead of saying we’re all going to freeze to death or be blown away because it’s 10 degrees with a gentle breeze.

Have the people who write this “news” never been outside in Winter before?

 

[SirRumpole]

This may help describe the differences between weather and climate.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-21/does-climate-change-cause-extreme-weather/9566168

 

[explod]

Interesting perspective.



Smurf: 70 years back I lived on a farm which had been recently subdivided for the Soldier Settlement Scheme. There were no trees or shelter, just a 600 acre paddock with our corrugated iron hut. No electricity or hot water service. Everything revolved around our wood fireplace (IXL). I was six and had four younger siblings and Mum had another in the bin. Anyway I digress.

At this time of the year back then we had the constant trade winds from the south west. They consistently began about the Warrnambool May Racing Carnival and barely let up till early September each year, in fact gumboots were needed till November. Because of the weather I became a weather watcher, Dad always measured and recorded the falls and discussed it with us. It averaged between 25 to 30 inches a year and never below that till the dry of 1967 to 69. The falls have never attained that level since. Dad often spoke of the tree clearing that took place before our arrival and I must say the old stumps provided us with great fuel for the stove. Some years later Dad and other farmers were very angry at the Premier Henry Bolte letting the dozers clear the Heytesbury Settlement (to our east) It was sandy soil and proved unsuitable for the close settlement that followed. In fact it marked the change in my view.

Today the variation of weather is inconsistent and all over the place. I'm not a scientist but a constant observer over time. So yes its not all coal and oil but also land clearing which continues unabated across most states. Just north of where I live around Berwick almost to Warrigal we find prime grazing and productive vegetable ground being built on in swathes for houses.

But do you think the press will focus on the real concerns of the Greens, not on your life cause its bad business. Well times running out folks as the link at the top of my post reveals. Actually an elderly Dear pointed out a few days back that when she was a girl there were 2 billion people on earth, today we have eight billion. So a lot has happened over a lifetime but few have the eyes it seems to see it or where we are headed.

 

[basilio]

There is an excellent review of Professor James Hanson 1988 predictions on the effects of global warming. This was his presentation to the US Senate where he laid out the effects of CO2 created global warming alongside natural climate variability due to other (non human) factors.

Turns out James predictions using the 1980's climate models was spot on. The sobering point is asking what the future holds for global warming given :
1) The fact that we already have a proven result from the 1988 predictions
2) Current climate models are far more developed and predict even larger temperature increases as we increase greenhouse gases

And finally - at what stage will the governments and organisations who don't accept the validity of the evidence acknowledge reality and create a united front on a common problem ?

Climate Denial Crock of the Week
with Peter Sinclair

New Video: Hansen’s Global Warming Prediction at 30. How did He Do?
June 20, 2018

June 23, 1988.

Easy to remember, because it’s my birthday.
And the day I thought that, at last, humans were serious about the 800 pound gorilla of environmental issues.

Senior NASA scientist James Hansen, whose work I had been following for some time, came before the Senate, on a brutally hot summer day – and laid out his findings. He was pushing the envelope of what the data could tell, but his instincts were telling him that what he was seeing was real.

 

[SirRumpole]

Happy birthday Bas !

 

[orr]

So much and for so long ad hominen pushed at Hansen...
Time for a mea culpa...
memories???


"Beyond a few vested interests and those zealots who have embraced it as a religion, co2 based AGW is a dead issue, the science largely discredited, the proponents caught out BSing and humiliated.

Let's now concentrate on minimizing man's impact on the environment in a number of other ways that are real, measurable and doable.

And yes, prosecute the Gorists and Gravy Trainers.

Unfortunately it will not happen, and they will resurrect the issue, Lazarus like, at some point in the future. "

A lot of crow on the menu for some..

The writhing of the likes of the imbicile Craig Kelly inspire pity, similar to that of wanting to help the village idiot. But no matter how you help such as those today, you know tomorrow they'll be out in the cold and wet smeared from head to foot in their own faeces.
Such is the burden of those up the bell curve.

 

[basilio]

So much and for so long ad hominen pushed at Hansen...
Time for a mea culpa...
memories???


"Beyond a few vested interests and those zealots who have embraced it as a religion, co2 based AGW is a dead issue, the science largely discredited, the proponents caught out BSing and humiliated.

Let's now concentrate on minimizing man's impact on the environment in a number of other ways that are real, measurable and doable.

And yes, prosecute the Gorists and Gravy Trainers.

Unfortunately it will not happen, and they will resurrect the issue, Lazarus like, at some point in the future. "

A lot of crow on the menu for some..

The writhing of the likes of the imbicile Craig Kelly inspire pity, similar to that of wanting to help the village idiot. But no matter how you help such as those today, you know tomorrow they'll be out in the cold and wet smeared from head to foot in their own faeces.
Such is the burden of those up the bell curve.

You must be joking !! There is no known universe that the climate deniers will acknowledge that either the world is getting warmer (rapidly !) or that humans are the overwhelming contrubitor to the warming. Check out this analysis of the latest "it ain't happening " story.

30 years later, deniers are still lying about Hansen’s amazing global warming prediction
Koch paychecks seem to be strong motivators to lie

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...out-hansens-amazing-global-warming-prediction

 

[Darc Knight]

Considering that the science of climate change is supposed to be pretty much settled, if it is all a hoax, I'm guessing by academics to fund further research into renewable energy, jail sentences need to be handed out to all those involved.
Just to further muddy the waters. Divers I speak to say the death of great areas of the Barrier Reef convince them that climate change is real.

 

[Tisme]

Divers I speak to say the death of great areas of the Barrier Reef convince them that climate change is real.

How much is pollution form our third world northern neighbours like Cairns, Indonesia, S/E Asia and China?

 

[basilio]

Heatwave sees record high temperatures around world this week
From Europe to Africa, extreme and widespread heat raises climate concerns in hottest La Niña year to date on record
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The dried up River Kennet in Wiltshire following the prolonged heatwave in England. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Record high temperatures have been set across much of the world this week as an unusually prolonged and broad heatwave intensifies concerns about climate change.
climate change.

The past month has seen power shortages in California as record heat forced a surge of demand for air conditioners. Algeria has experienced the hottest temperature ever reliably registered in Africa. Britain, meanwhile, has experienced its third longest heatwave, melting the roof of a science building in Glasgow and exposing ancient hill forts in Wales.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the rising temperatures were at odds with a global cyclical climate phenomena known as La Niña, which is usually associated with cooling.

Quick guide
Recent record temperatures
“The first six months of the year have made it the hottest La Niña year to date on record,” said Clare Nullis of the WMO.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

 

[Smurf1976]

Divers I speak to say the death of great areas of the Barrier Reef convince them that climate change is real.

Tourism operators in Qld. Farmers in WA. Power generation in Tas.

The thing about this issue is that whilst one individual piece of "evidence" can readily be dismissed as some random natural occurrence or being due to x, there's rather a lot of data from diverse sources which all says much the same thing.

In WA they have a trend with drying conditions on the south-west of the state. Tasmania has the exact same trend which commenced at the same time. In both cases abrupt "steps" have occurred in that trend.

Then there's the Barrier Reef.

Then there's all sort of things internationally.

Some might be due to random nature etc but it seems very clear to me that the climate is changing and it's happening rather quickly.

My personal thought is that it will take an "incident" to bring any major action globally and I've thought that for quite some time now. Whilst such an incident will in practice need to occur in the USA to bring such a response, to put it into perspective in terms of the scale and impact I'll use some Australian examples of the sort of thing I mean.

Adelaide (or any other city but Adelaide is most likely of the main Aust cities) records a maximum temperature at an official BOM measuring station of 50.0 degrees or higher. 49.9 won't cut it, it has to be 50 to trigger the psychological "oh s***!" response that things are changing.

A tropical cyclone actually hits Brisbane or Sydney causing major destruction.

Combination of heat and humidity leads to a substantial number of fatalities in any city.

Mass scale crop failure to the point that Australia's wheat exports drop to zero or negative.

The Murray River completely dries up over a significant section (not just the mouth closing but the river itself goes dry).

It will take something of that magnitude to bring action but those are just examples since it really needs to be in the US not here.

 

[basilio]

Smurf in the US it would be something like the flooding of Florida or another Hurricane hitting the East Coast and flooding New York.

But frankly I think that wll be too late. Right now all we are doing is attempting to mitigate the damage that climate scientists know will unfold as we reach a minimum of 2 degrees C global warming in the lifetime of our children.

I fear one of the calculated responses will be attempting to create secure "lighthouse" communities to carry on civilization (for the wealthy) while everyone else has to look out for themself. Consider the mega rich currently buying into New Zealand.

 

[SirRumpole]

Reduce population growth. Pay people NOT to have children.

Sad to say, but increasing the living standards of poor countries only increases consumption of resources and more greenhouse gases. Rich countries like us have to learn to live on less, less food and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.

But then, we are a greedy lot and I doubt people will listen untill it's too late.

 

[explod]

As a youngster remember my amazement at seein galaars (lovely red on the necks) when I drove into NSW. Grew up on a farm in Victoria's South so had never seen them before. Only a few short years later observed them in the Bendigo area, a couple of years later at the start of my plod career they landed in the Melbourne level. In that time on checking it out the patterns of weather were moving south and realised the birds were merely following needs.

I have written hundreds of my life experiences on climate on ASF over the years and I'm now tired of it. In fact the party is over but my advice is to just party whilst you are able to see the sun come up each day.

Joe, we have a like tick but we need a "don't like" and a "sad" tick to reflect our full range of feelings.

Feel absolutely fkn so sad for my eight Grandchildren.

 

[Smurf1976]

Reduce population growth. Pay people NOT to have children.

On a different subject we can't even stop the bizarre and cruel non-sport of bull fighting in a developed country (referring particularly to Spain here) because of

wait for it............

Tradition!

Yep, we keep killing innocent animals for entertainment simply because it has been done that way for centuries. Talk about reluctance to change!

Closer to home SA can't work out when to open the shops and Hobart has been trying to work out whether or not to build a cable car for the past 40 years now. Before anyone laughs, fear not there are equally silly things in every state.

The only time things get done quickly, and by that I mean in less than a few decades, is during an outright crisis. Hence my view that's what will have to happen with climate and of course by then it's too late.

 

[explod]

How much is pollution form our third world northern neighbours like Cairns, Indonesia, S/E Asia and China?

Probably a fair percentage and its all combining to make matters worse.

Little can be rationalised anymore and in my view its too late now.

 

[SirRumpole]

The only time things get done quickly, and by that I mean in less than a few decades, is during an outright crisis. Hence my view that's what will have to happen with climate and of course by then it's too late.

Unfortunately it will have to be a series of global crises, because no one cares what happens to other countries.

I tend to think that crisis will be global sea level rises because that will affect most of the countries that are the biggest emitters, USA, China, India, Japan. The Sprattley Islands will probably disappear and that will annoy China, and when the Florida everglades go under then maybe even the USA may realise that something odd is going on.

 

[bellenuit]

Reduce population growth. Pay people NOT to have children.

Sad to say, but increasing the living standards of poor countries only increases consumption of resources and more greenhouse gases. Rich countries like us have to learn to live on less, less food and reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.

But then, we are a greedy lot and I doubt people will listen untill it's too late.

There is evidence that increasing living standards results in a reduction in the birth rate so it is a double edged sword.

 

[cynic]

....
Joe, we have a like tick but we need a "don't like" and a "sad" tick to reflect our full range of feelings.
...

No! We absolutely do not need such a feature, as it would cause a catastrophic avalanche of dislikes, giving our resident snowflakes, ample opportunity for claiming to have been unfairly bullied!

 

[Joe Blow]

Joe, we have a like tick but we need a "don't like" and a "sad" tick to reflect our full range of feelings.

I think disagreement and sadness (and other feelings) should be expressed in a reply to the post in question. Sometimes I wonder if the "Like" button has reduced forum activity, as you don't even need to post to agree with someone any longer. I recall the days when people would post to agree with someone else and add to the discussion at the same time with some additional insightful commentary.

I encourage everyone to post more often and express their opinions and views that way. Let's keep ASF active!