Resisting Climate Hysteria

[wayneL]

Isn't it astonishing? The left only invented "post-truth" last year, and already it is so nauseatingly cliched.

It will be interesting if real scientists, ones that are not on the gravy train, will be emboldened to come out and speak the truth.

 

[orr]

I only invented "post-truth" last year,.

There's a fantastic theme for a thread .. "Post Truism's & other offerings from the IPA"

 

[Tisme]

There's a fantastic theme for a thread .. "Post Truism's & other offerings from the IPA"

Nice application of post-truth there in your quote tags:

-Originally Posted by wayneL View Post
I only invented "post-truth" last year,. .

 

[wayneL]

the only IPA I know is a beer

 

[Knobby22]

The Arctic has recorded its lowest sea ice ever for October. The seas are just to warm this year to allow much ice to form.

I like this area of measurement as it is quite simple. You can see the ice, you can measure it and it is very hard to form conspiracy theories to say its not happening.

China, unrestrained by political blinkers, is working with Iceland to develop ports and access the mineral and believe it or not geothermal wealth that will be obtainable as the sea continues to melt.

Moreover, Beijing’s interest in Arctic development can be associated with two questions: Who will gain access to regional mineral resources and how will melting ice impact commercial shipping through Northern routes from Asia to Europe and back?

Iceland has two potential oil and gas shelf sites: Dreki and Gammur. Dreki is operated by a joint venture of CNOOC, Eykon Energy and Petoro Iceland, in which the Chinese side has a 60 percent share. A strategic environmental assessment of Gammur is still pending approval, so no licenses have been granted. However, it is evident that Chinese oil giants will participate in development bids. http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/

Russia also has an excellent deep port in the Arctic and is working with Cocono Philips to take advantage.
the Canadian Government has proposed a rail link to create a new port to ship iron ore out as the Arctic melts. http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Ports

The first major cruise ship ever to sail through the arctic occurred this summer.
https://news.vice.com/article/a-massive-luxury-cruise-is-now-sailing-through-the-arctic

 

[cynic]

The Arctic has recorded its lowest sea ice ever for October. The seas are just to warm this year to allow much ice to form.

I like this area of measurement as it is quite simple. You can see the ice, you can measure it and it is very hard to form conspiracy theories to say its not happening.

China, unrestrained by political blinkers, is working with Iceland to develop ports and access the mineral and believe it or not geothermal wealth that will be obtainable as the sea continues to melt.

Moreover, Beijing’s interest in Arctic development can be associated with two questions: Who will gain access to regional mineral resources and how will melting ice impact commercial shipping through Northern routes from Asia to Europe and back?

Iceland has two potential oil and gas shelf sites: Dreki and Gammur. Dreki is operated by a joint venture of CNOOC, Eykon Energy and Petoro Iceland, in which the Chinese side has a 60 percent share. A strategic environmental assessment of Gammur is still pending approval, so no licenses have been granted. However, it is evident that Chinese oil giants will participate in development bids. http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/

Russia also has an excellent deep port in the Arctic and is working with Cocono Philips to take advantage.
the Canadian Government has proposed a rail link to create a new port to ship iron ore out as the Arctic melts. http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Ports

The first major cruise ship ever to sail through the arctic occurred this summer.
https://news.vice.com/article/a-massive-luxury-cruise-is-now-sailing-through-the-arctic

That must be so very comforting for you! However, despite these observations, the questions regarding causation remain unresolved.

Hardly surprising really, given the blatantly obvious lack of competence of self proclaimed experts in the field. Like the one in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

If the subject was understood as fully as was being claimed, then how did this forecast come to be so wide of the mark?

Clearly this phenomenon has not been correctly understood!

 

[Knobby22]

That must be so very comforting for you! However, despite these observations the questions regarding causation remain unresolved.

Hardly surprising really given the blatantly obvious lack of competence of self proclaimed experts in the field. Like the one in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

If the subject was understood as fully as was being claimed, then how did this forecast come to be so wide of the mark?

Clearly this phenomenon has not been correctly understood!

Firstly: It's a theory of a complex system. Of course it's not fully understood.
Secondly: one expert is quoted, not lots of experts. It's like the stock exchange, you get heaps of "ëxperts" predicting the next crash. I think the official prediction for ice free is 2050 from memory.

The facts are that it is obviously happening and the Chinese, Canadians, Icelandians and Russia know it is and are acting on it. As is the company that owns the Cruise ships.

I look at it more as a way to make good share market investments. I know that we can handle some warming and that the big interests are paying big money to ensure that their interests aren't hurt. I know there is a right wing think tank working on a technological fix and I reckon they will probably succeed.

Anyway, one decent nuke will stop thermal runaway should it occur.

 

[cynic]

Firstly: It's a theory of a complex system. Of course it's not fully understood.
Secondly: one expert is quoted, not lots of experts. It's like the stock exchange, you get heaps of "ëxperts" predicting the next crash. I think the official prediction for ice free is 2050 from memory.

I am glad you agree that it is not fully understood. I would even venture to say that it has almost certainly been largely misunderstood!

Do you really expect me to wait another 34 years to prove that prediction wrong also?

These buffons have been wrong for decades now! Time to wake up!!

 

[Knobby22]

I am glad you agree that it is not fully understood. I would even venture to say that it has almost certainly been largely misunderstood!

Do you really expect me to wait another 34 years to prove that prediction wrong also?

These buffons have been wrong for decades now! Time to wake up!!

But the ice cap is melting every year and the serious interests are in their making money. When do you propose to wake up to the fact??? How do you trade shares?

 

[Knobby22]

I am glad you agree that it is not fully understood. I would even venture to say that it has almost certainly been largely misunderstood!

Do you really expect me to wait another 34 years to prove that prediction wrong also?

These buffons have been wrong for decades now! Time to wake up!!

But the ice cap is melting every year and the serious interests are in their making money. When do you propose to wake up to the fact??? How do you trade shares? Don't you use pattern recognition?

 

[cynic]

But the ice cap is melting every year and the serious interests are in their making money. When do you propose to wake up to the fact??? How do you trade shares?

The sun shines every day!!! What the FTSE have my business practices got to do with your religion?

 

[Knobby22]

The sun shines every day!!! What the FTSE has my business practices got to do with your religion?

Your the one with religion. Your beliefs fly in the face of reality that is obvious and visible and you can't see it due to your belief of some prophet.
I'm with the Chinese, Canadians and Russians and the cruise ship owner. If something is happening I act on it. Again, how do you trade shares? Can't you see opportunity?

 

[cynic]

Your the one with religion. Your beliefs fly in the face of reality that is obvious and visible and you can't see it due to your belief of some prophet.
I'm with the Chinese, Canadians and Russians and the cruise ship owner. If something is happening I act on it. Again, how do you trade shares? Can't you see opportunity?

So do you mean to say that you don't have faith in the climate "scientists" and their predictions?

 

[Knobby22]

So do you mean to say that you don't have faith in the climate "scientists" and their predictions?

There is no "scientists". they are trained scientists. Your ""experts"" that you have such faith in like the esteemed Andrew Bolt are the untrained ones.

Here's the ice levels. try to open your mind a little. Or if not, tell me why its all not true.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

[luutzu]

The Arctic has recorded its lowest sea ice ever for October. The seas are just to warm this year to allow much ice to form.

I like this area of measurement as it is quite simple. You can see the ice, you can measure it and it is very hard to form conspiracy theories to say its not happening.

China, unrestrained by political blinkers, is working with Iceland to develop ports and access the mineral and believe it or not geothermal wealth that will be obtainable as the sea continues to melt.

Moreover, Beijing’s interest in Arctic development can be associated with two questions: Who will gain access to regional mineral resources and how will melting ice impact commercial shipping through Northern routes from Asia to Europe and back?

Iceland has two potential oil and gas shelf sites: Dreki and Gammur. Dreki is operated by a joint venture of CNOOC, Eykon Energy and Petoro Iceland, in which the Chinese side has a 60 percent share. A strategic environmental assessment of Gammur is still pending approval, so no licenses have been granted. However, it is evident that Chinese oil giants will participate in development bids. http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/

Russia also has an excellent deep port in the Arctic and is working with Cocono Philips to take advantage.
the Canadian Government has proposed a rail link to create a new port to ship iron ore out as the Arctic melts. http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Ports

The first major cruise ship ever to sail through the arctic occurred this summer.
https://news.vice.com/article/a-massive-luxury-cruise-is-now-sailing-through-the-arctic

I guess Danger and Opportunity are all the same in every language.

Remember that news last year where ExxonMobil have funded research into CC; found that CC is happening and so shut down the research and hide the results?

Apparently the geniuses at Exxon didn't stop there.

Nope.

They then start to plan out which part of the Earth will melt first and when they ought to explore and get rights to drill.

That's planning for you.

 

[noco]

The Arctic has recorded its lowest sea ice ever for October. The seas are just to warm this year to allow much ice to form.

I like this area of measurement as it is quite simple. You can see the ice, you can measure it and it is very hard to form conspiracy theories to say its not happening.

China, unrestrained by political blinkers, is working with Iceland to develop ports and access the mineral and believe it or not geothermal wealth that will be obtainable as the sea continues to melt.

Moreover, Beijing’s interest in Arctic development can be associated with two questions: Who will gain access to regional mineral resources and how will melting ice impact commercial shipping through Northern routes from Asia to Europe and back?

Iceland has two potential oil and gas shelf sites: Dreki and Gammur. Dreki is operated by a joint venture of CNOOC, Eykon Energy and Petoro Iceland, in which the Chinese side has a 60 percent share. A strategic environmental assessment of Gammur is still pending approval, so no licenses have been granted. However, it is evident that Chinese oil giants will participate in development bids. http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/

Russia also has an excellent deep port in the Arctic and is working with Cocono Philips to take advantage.
the Canadian Government has proposed a rail link to create a new port to ship iron ore out as the Arctic melts. http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Ports

The first major cruise ship ever to sail through the arctic occurred this summer.
https://news.vice.com/article/a-massive-luxury-cruise-is-now-sailing-through-the-arctic

Don't worry Knobby, it has all happened before and all to do with then Sun and the Earth's axis.

The polar bears survived and will do so again according to the latest reports.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...e/news-story/147a4aa8d7089adbbf2a0de714237d9d


The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is approaching its annual nadir. By early September each year about two-thirds of the ice cap has melted, then the sea begins to freeze again. This year looks unlikely to set a record for melting, with more than four million square kilometres of ice remaining, less than the average in the 1980s and 90s, but more than in the record low years of 2007 and 2012. (The amount of sea ice around Antarctica has been increasing in recent years, contrary to predictions.)

This will disappoint some. An expedition led by David Hempleman-Adams to circumnavigate the North Pole through the Northeast and Northwest passages, intending to demonstrate “that the Arctic sea ice coverage shrinks back so far now in the summer months that sea that was permanently locked up now can allow passage through”, was recently held up for weeks north of Siberia by, um, ice. They have only just reached halfway.

Meanwhile, the habit of some scientists of predicting when the ice will disappear completely keeps getting them into trouble. NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally told the Associated Press in 2007: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012.” Two years later Al Gore quoted another scientist that “there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years” — that is, by now.

This year Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University has a new book out called Farewell to Ice, which gives a “greater than even chance” that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free next month. Not likely.

He added: “Next year or the year after that, I think it will be free of ice in summer ... You will be able to cross over the North Pole by ship.” The temptation to predict a total melt of the Arctic ice cap, and thereby get a headline, has been counter-productive, according to other scientists. Crying wolf does not help the cause of global warming; it only gives amusement to sceptics.

Would it matter if it did all melt one year? Here’s the point everybody seems to be missing: the Arctic Ocean’s ice has indeed disappeared during summer in the past, routinely. The evidence comes from various sources, such as beach ridges in northern Greenland, never unfrozen today, which show evidence of wave action in the past. One Danish team concluded in 2012 that 8500 years ago the ice extent was “less than half of the record low 2007 level”. A Swedish team, in a paper published in 2014, went further: between 10,000 years ago and 6000 years ago, the Arctic experienced a “regime dominated by seasonal ice, ie, ice-free summers”.

This was a period known as the “early Holocene insolation maximum” (EHIM). Because the Earth’s axis was tilted away from the vertical more than today (known as obliquity), and because we were then closer to the Sun in July than in January (known as precession), the amount of the Sun’s energy hitting the far north in summer was much greater than today. This “great summer” effect was the chief reason the Earth had emerged from an ice age, because hot northern summers had melted the great ice caps of North America and Eurasia, exposing darker land and sea to absorb more sunlight and warm the whole planet.

The effect was huge: about an extra 50 watts per square metre 80 degrees north in June. By contrast, the total effect of man-made global warming will reach 3.5 watts per square metre (but globally) only by the end of this century.

To put it in context, the EHIM was the period during which agriculture was invented in about seven different parts of the globe at once. Copper smelting began; cattle and sheep were domesticated; wine and cheese were developed; the first towns appeared. The seas being warmer, the climate was generally wet so the Sahara had rivers and forests, hippos and people.

That the Arctic sea ice disappeared each August or September in those days does not seem to have done harm (remember that melting sea ice, as opposed to land ice, does not affect sea level), and nor did it lead to a tipping point towards ever-more rapid warming. Indeed, the reverse was the case: evidence from stalagmites in tropical caves, sea-floor sediments and ice cores on the Greenland ice cap shows that temperatures gradually but erratically cooled over the next few thousand years as the obliquity of the axis and the precession of the equinoxes changed. Sunlight is now weaker in July than January again (on global average).

Barring one especially cold snap 8200 years ago, the coldest spell of the past 10 millennia was the very recent “little ice age” of AD1300-1850, when glaciers advanced, tree lines descended and the Greenland Norse died out.

It seems that the quantity of Arctic sea ice varies more than we used to think. We don’t really know how much ice there was in the 1920s and 30s — satellites only started measuring it in 1979, a relatively cold time in the Arctic — but there is anecdotal evidence of considerable ice retreat in those decades, when temperatures were high in the Arctic.

Today’s melting may be man-made, but the EHIM precedent is still relevant. Polar bears clearly survived the ice-free seasons of 10,000-6000 years ago, as they cope with ice-free summers or autumns in many parts of their range today, such as Hudson Bay. They need sea ice in spring when they feed on seal pups and they sometimes suffer if it is too thick, preventing seals from breeding in an area.

Meanwhile, theory predicts, and data confirms, that today’s carbon-dioxide-induced man-made warming is happening more at night than during the day, more during winter than summer and more in the far north than near the equator. An Arctic winter night is affected much more than a tropical summer day. If it were the other way around, it would be more harmful.

Some time in the next few decades, we may well see the Arctic Ocean without ice in August or September for at least a few weeks, just as it was in the time of our ancestors. The effect on human welfare, and on animal and plant life, will be small. For all the attention it gets, the reduction in Arctic ice is the most visible, but least harmful, effect of global warming.

The Times

 

[cynic]

There is no "scientists". they are trained scientists. Your ""experts"" that you have such faith in like the esteemed Andrew Bolt are the untrained ones.

Here's the ice levels. try to open your mind a little. Or if not, tell me why its all not true.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

I am not questioning the ice levels!!

As I have stated numerous times throughout this thread, the question of causation remains unresolved!

Some may be happy to revere buffoonery whenever it happens to comply with one's chosen ideology. However, the fact that an opinion happens to conform with one's chosen religion doesn't automatically render it correct.

Are we looking at the same page yet? You seem to be totally missing the point I am contesting, namely the question of causation!

 

[Knobby22]

Are we looking at the same page yet? You seem to be totally missing the point I am contesting, namely the question of causation!

What do you think is causing it?

 

[explod]

Are we looking at the same page yet? You seem to be totally missing the point I am contesting, namely the question of causation!

Could you clarify "causation" as you mean it here.

 

[noco]

What do you think is causing it?

The Sun and the angle of the Earth's axis...Read my previous post.