Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

Ummm I am confused ... Isn't it supposed to be hot in Summer ?? As in NOT raining with flooding?

Yep it gets hot everywhere ...

Where the issue arises is when you have a long term trend, which now goes back 40 years, of an area gradually becoming drier (noting that dryness is a product of both rainfall and temperature with wind also a factor).

Same in the south-west of WA and same in Tas. Both have dried considerably over the past 40 years and whilst there will still be high rainfall events from time to time, the basic trend is toward drier conditions.

Is the climate changing? Absolutely, I have no doubt about that whatsoever. I only need to go for a walk in the bush, or alternatively look at the data, to know that. Whether or not that is a natural phenomenon or is man-made is something I don't know but there is definitely a change comparing now with the 20th Century.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Some rain fell and was enough to cause localised flooding in a few areas where falls were heaviest but it just soaked into the ground across most of the state.

We've now gone back to dry conditions it seems, with every day warmer than the long term average and with practically no rain forecast. The rains did some good in many areas, certainly a help to farmers, but overall much of the state is still pretty dry.

Hobart is running hot and ready to break yet another monthly maximum daily average record. It is currently averaging around 26 degrees this month during the day , the record is 25.1 degrees. With more scorching days ahead near close to 30 degrees that will only add to the anomaly. The night time temperatures are also around 4 degrees over average and show no sign of backing off either. I have never used the air con so much in Tasmania .
Having lived in Brisbane for some time , I would say that the last 3 Summers down here have been on par with a Brisbane Summer , the only difference no storms and no rain. The constant drive of heat in those 3 Summers have been incredible with each one breaking records and then only to be outdone by the next one. Also March which is not officially Summer has also become one of our hottest months in those 3 years , so we have a long extended Summer ahead. I have noticed this year people are very grumpy and not themselves myself included due to the constant sun , heat and dryness. Yes Taswegians are going a little TROPPO .
As said before the climate is changing dramatically down here , much of this attributed to the 3 El Ninos' in row .
This one being the mother of them all , but certainly the long term trend is we are turning into a more Adelaide like climate.
Actually if I win the lottery I have a grand plan to live in Canada in their Winter and come back here from April to September , never see another Summer ever again

 

[Smurf1976]

I think perhaps the most interesting aspect of the changes in SW WA and Tasmania is that in both cases it has occurred as a number of abrupt and seemingly permanent "step changes" since the mid-1970's and was not a gradual decline.

That being so, we can't be sure when or if another step will occur, but that change occurs as a sudden step and is not gradual has thus far definitely been the pattern (and that point is recognised by various organisations - Bureau of Met, CSIRO, WA water authorities, Hydro Tas, others).

The other interesting aspect, in both states, is that the almost complete absence of high runoff years. The dry years haven't gotten any drier, in Tas 1967 still holds the record for that, but what has happened is that the wet years have become far less frequent.

In Tas, there has been only 1 year in the past 40, and that was 1996, when runoff (measured as inflows to water storages) was more than 110% of the long term average. Prior to that, approximately every third year was "wet" in that sense. The situation is much the same in WA too - it's the absence of wet years which has pushed down the averages.

 

[SirRumpole]

Did you cop the rain in Townsville noco ?

 

[Ijustnewit]

Interesting move by Greenpeace to use the Tasmanian bushfires as Climate Change evidence . It may damage Tasmanian Tourism and some down here are saying it's Hysteria.

"It's damn ordinary that you've got environmental activists almost gleefully capitalising on images, naturally caused, which could inflict significant damage on our brand, our reputation," he said.

"What we're now seeing is a hysterical response by environmental activists to use this for their own means, and that includes across the globe.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-...sion-in-campaigns/7160482?WT.ac=statenews_tas

 

[SirRumpole]

Renowned CSIRO scientist Dr John Church speaks out against decision to dump climate modelling


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-19/award-winning-scientist-condemns-csiro-job-cuts/7184410

 

[Tisme]

I have been doing some history searching at the State Library regarding the town I now live in. I'm doing it because the locals have differing yarns about its roots and pedigree.

An interesting thesis written for a lecture in 1935 is about the pioneer days as seen through a fella who migrated 1863 as a toddler from England and settled around the Gold Coast. He makes an interesting observation that the weather in that time period had changed, with storms encroaching into the cooler months.

He is also rather negative about the loss of flora, fauna, fish stock and beach front compared to when it was only him and his dad who visited completely undeveloped Nerang Heads (Southport) for recreation .... all at the hands of environmental vandalism, intended or otherwise.

 

[basilio]

Hold your hats, sit down quietly, take a deep,deep breath.

There is such a thing as a constructive , evidenced based debate on climate change on the net ..
Isn't that unxxxxingbelievable !!!

Just came across the exchange while following up a post from Logicque on another thread. Couldn't believe my eyes.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

 

[trainspotter]

Hold your hats, sit down quietly, take a deep,deep breath.

There is such a thing as a constructive , evidenced based debate on climate change on the net ..
Isn't that unxxxxingbelievable !!!

Just came across the exchange while following up a post from Logicque on another thread. Couldn't believe my eyes.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

if I continued this debate and got people on my side, I could not forgive my self for 'uneducating' people . it would be a disgrace to my growth in science and what I stand for.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

SOCK PUPPET !!

 

[basilio]

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

SOCK PUPPET !!

That is so brilliant TS. So absolutely you.

You manage to completely ignore the detailed, complex argument for the affirmative, miss the first response from the negative and manage to only quote the final capitulation line.

Excellent work. Underscores this thread perfectly.

PS

And don't worry. There were plenty of your mates represented in the comments. I don't know how the other debates go on that forum. I was just curious about that topic.

 

[orr]

Hold your hats, sit down quietly, take a deep,deep breath.

There is such a thing as a constructive , evidenced based debate on climate change on the net ..
Isn't that unxxxxingbelievable !!!

Just came across the exchange while following up a post from Logicque on another thread. Couldn't believe my eyes.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

Thanks Bas...
It is good... I hope to see the long term obscurantists putting up their (dim) wits (or is it that they do they have capacity to make a real case?...My guess 'ahh no') up against this well seasoned, astutely backed up and utterly dumbing analysis.
I for one will be following the linked debate.

As the scales fall from their eyes you can see the frantic scrabbling search on the floor in the vain attempt to dab these now long since proven 'teflon' shingles back on .
Orr will there be at last a much belated 'light bulb moment' of contrition ... or a scuttling to the shadows.

And I'll say this; that the confected ignorance by people with obviously the capacity to see sense in aiding and abetting the near to criminal(history will prove to be truely criminal) conspiracy of deluding those of little capacity, is and has been at the very least shameful, and the consequences far more odious than have needed to be. If that was the aim; be proud you've done 'well', billions unborn salute your vastly diminished legacy.

 

[wayneL]

Hold your hats, sit down quietly, take a deep,deep breath.

There is such a thing as a constructive , evidenced based debate on climate change on the net ..
Isn't that unxxxxingbelievable !!!

Just came across the exchange while following up a post from Logicque on another thread. Couldn't believe my eyes.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

The con case was taken up by an apparent believer in AGW if I'm not mistaken, judging by the concluding comments, stating his heart wasn't really in the debate or his case.

This is a constructive and evidenced based "debate"? Holy Mother of Mary bas!!

That is like putting two socialists together and asking them to debate if socialism is good.

Unxxxxingbelievable indeed.

 

[basilio]

The con case was taken up by an apparent believer in AGW if I'm not mistaken, judging by the concluding comments, stating his heart wasn't really in the debate or his case.

This is a constructive and evidenced based "debate"? Holy Mother of Mary bas!!

That is like putting two socialists together and asking them to debate if socialism is good.

Unxxxxingbelievable indeed.

Nah Wayne. It was pretty simple. The topic was agreed before as were the parameters. There was no trolling or using semantics "to make a point" . The arguments and evidence for the arguments had to be clearly established.

Made it tough for your average denier to come up with both effective rebuttal of clear, evidenced arguments and providing some evidenced alternative explanation.

 

[trainspotter]

That is so brilliant TS. So absolutely you.

You manage to completely ignore the detailed, complex argument for the affirmative, miss the first response from the negative and manage to only quote the final capitulation line.

Excellent work. Underscores this thread perfectly.

PS

And don't worry. There were plenty of your mates represented in the comments. I don't know how the other debates go on that forum. I was just curious about that topic.

AHEM .....

Rules

1. The first round is for acceptance.
2. A forfeit or concession is not allowed.
3. No semantics or trolling.
4. All arguments must be visible inside this debate. Sources may be posted in an outside link.
5. Debate resolution, definitions, rules, and structure cannot be changed without asking in the comments before you post your round 1 argument. Debate resolution, definitions, rules, and structure cannot be changed in the middle of the debate.Voters, in the case of the breaking of any of these rules by either debater, all seven points in voting should be given to the other person.

Response

To be honest, I thought it would be a fun thing to debate someone on something controversial and funny. but I just can't bring my self to debate something that is intellectually dishonest and simply false. I withdraw my argument and forfeit.

http://www.debate.org/debates/Mankind-Is-the-Main-Cause-of-Global-Warming/10/

I standby my claim ... SOCK PUPPET !!

P.S. Are either of these 2 mass debaters involved with any scientific base organisation or are they just 2 keyboard warriors having a bash at each other like what goes on in here??

 

[wayneL]

Bas, just listen to yourself. Ludicrous.

 

[basilio]

Really don't know what you clowns are on about. I came across that "debate" by accident and I was/am impressed by the depth and accessibility of the argument run by the affirmative.

I was surprised that the opposition just folded.. Seemed a bit funny and as TS pointed out you're not supposed to forfeit.

It was no (big) deal as far as internet debates on CC go. It was just interesting to see some sense of formal debate format and evidence based argument as distinct form the rubbish that flies around most of the net forums.

 

[trainspotter]

Really don't know what you clowns are on about. I came across that "debate" by accident and I was/am impressed by the depth and accessibility of the argument run by the affirmative.

I was surprised that the opposition just folded.. Seemed a bit funny and as TS pointed out you're not supposed to forfeit.

It was no (big) deal as far as internet debates on CC go. It was just interesting to see some sense of formal debate format and evidence based argument as distinct form the rubbish that flies around most of the net forums.

That's me in the front middle if you want to know ... you can call me BUBBY !

 

[basilio]

Great one TS !! Delighted you have a sense of humour

Cheers

 

[trainspotter]

Great one TS !! Delighted you have a sense of humour

Cheers

OhH but of course !! It is all not about being a harbringer of doom and that nasty Co2 stuff rammed down our throats in the name of political correctness (read SHEEP) and the megaopolies who control what you read, think and comprehend.

Yes basilio you have some very valid points to bring to light and all of them should be considered within the context of realism. I myself am more of the "middle of the road" thinking man and prefer to judge facts rather than hysteria.

Carry on ....

 

[Ijustnewit]

I think downtime in Heatwaves is a great idea , this article mentions that the US shuts down in days of blizzards.
Why not ease off in Australia in days of very extreme heat ? I don't know how the logistics would work but the idea has some merit. Also in the article " the number of heatwave days in Australia has doubled in the last 50 years ".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/

Also in Summer heat news " Tasmania has the hottest Summer on Record" . This is no surprise to those of us down here , it's been a Summer from hell. The heat is also marching on into March , the first half of the month looks like seeing everyday about 6 to 8 degrees over average. Also never heard of before , the El Nino of El Nino's is slowly breaking down but remains very strong.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmania-sweltered-through-warmest-summer-on-record/463457