Resisting Climate Hysteria

[basilio]

There is no broad agreement on those points basilio. Not in the scientific community. !!!

Politics yes (it is useful for a particular agenda), source of funding yes, acceptance in the hierarchy of academia yes, actual science not so much.

You can make that statement until the cows come home but it is simply untrue Wayne.

How can we tell ? Would you like me to post the full range of scientific organizations and their stated view on climate change ? It's very, very easy to do. It reflects practically the entire range of scientists in the direct climate science field as well as ecologists, physical science groups, and so on.

And perhaps then you can point out other scientific groups that offer another view that doesn't see global warming along those broad lines.

 

[basilio]

Yeah it was one of the more "balanced" missives I have read in a long time explaining that the scientists jumped the gun a bit on their modelling as they really had no clue as to what they were actually observing. This is why they are having a tough time now pushing their barrow as the information they let loose to the public was full of factual errors. Now that they have more of a grasp of what they are studying they are finding that nature is a very tricky BIATCH indeed !

Hmm.. I don't agree that Michael Manns work or indeed many other Climate scientists papers are "full of factual errors " I except Professor Carter of course but he has neverbeen a climate scientist

TS did you realise the excerpt I copied offered total and complete support for Michaels Manns analysis? It was as comprehensive an endorsement as you could ever get. 78 authors , multiple lines of evidence, the whole box and dice to reinforce the original finding that our current climate is the warmest it has been for 7000 plus years.

I make this point because one of the continual talking points of climate deniers has been attacks on the hockey stick and Michael Mann.

The evidence is in. The reality is the world is now warmer than its been for many thousands of years. Saying otherwise is a lie or wilful ignorance.

____________________________________________________________________________

The question of whether Wayne is a "denier"... Your suggesting and of course Wayne will also say that "the science is not settled". "That there are still questions about exactly how hot things will become- How exactly accurate are our models" and so on.

In the real world there is rarely complete certainty. All of us work with imperfect and incomplete knowledge. If we wait for certainty we will always be too late.

On Global Warming we have indisputable evidence of significant warming around the world. The very large majority of scientists believe the overwhelming factor causing this warming is increase in human produced green house gases - predominately CO2. (Yes there are other factors and these are acknowledged )

Why would we bypass this knowledge and risk extreme consequences for the world and us on the hope that these scientists are all wrong and that continuing to pump out GG will not cause continuing and exponential temperature rises?

In what world does that make sense ?

 

[basilio]

......climate change is a natural phenomena allied with the Sun and the removal of man made CO2 will have little or no affect on the Earth's temperature.

.

You really have absolutely no idea about science do you Noco ? Zero, zilch, nothing.

It takes only a millisecond to find out the scientific evidence of how our world is habitable only through the presence of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas. And yet you still continue to make assertions that are just factually wrong.

Not great mate

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
http://www.columbia.edu/~vjd1/carbon.htm
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/co2-temperature.html

ad infinitum...

 

[noco]

You really have absolutely no idea about science do you Noco ? Zero, zilch, nothing.

It takes only a millisecond to find out the scientific evidence of how our world is habitable only through the presence of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas. And yet you still continue to make assertions that are just factually wrong.

Not great mate

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
http://www.columbia.edu/~vjd1/carbon.htm
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/co2-temperature.html

ad infinitum...

Mate, I do not need misinformed science to twist my mind......I have seen more climate changes over the past 80 years than you would have had hot dinners. you name it...extreme heat.....extreme drought....extreme cold winters....bush fires....massive floods in Brisibane and Townsville and all through the south west of Queensland....I have been through it all.

We studied at High School the effects of the Sun on the Earth, how the Earth travels in an elliptical path around the Sun and not a circle as many people believe...So at times the Earth is further from the Sun......How the explosions on the Sun are equivalent to 60,000 Hiroshima atom bombs.....How the Sun's rays are stronger at certain times which affect the Earths atmosphere....How the axis of the Earth is at different angles to the Sun...All this phenomenon add up to variations to climate on Earth.

Incidentally, I have personally met Professor Bob Carter and Professor Peter Ridd who has studied the Great Barrier reef for the past 30 years and they tell me the reef has never been in better shape so why do the Greenies continue with their propaganda that half the reef has been already destroyed by man? ...Because it is just one big scam.

As the old saying goes, many have been baffled with science.

Hope I have made some sense about climate change.

 

[wayneL]

No need to be nasty ole pal, but typical of the deniest camp who are concerned about what may be the emerging reality

TS said everything that need to be said, but in addition, the goal was not to be nasty at all. Sheeeit Plod I'm a real sweetheart. The goal wad to point out basilio debating style. ... viz, shouting down any debate by repeating the extremist view, again. I was doing him a favour so he might become more credible.

But.... do you think it might be a bit. ... just a tiny tad.... hypocritical, to call me a denier after Ive made my views so clear on so many occasions?

 

[basilio]

Noco I totally agree with you regarding the effects of the Sun on the Earth, the elliptical orbit and the rest. They do have a significant effect on our climate. All true. And in fact there are also other factors that affect the climate.

But perhaps what you learnt at school isn't the sum total of the science on how Earths climate is created ? And perhaps the science community itself has increased it's understanding in the past 20-30-40 years ? (I remember for example that Tectonic Plate theory which showed that the continents moved around the earth was only just being understood when I was a school. )

The simple point I'm making is that greenhouse gases are a critical factor in the creation of our climate. They trap heat from the sun and have warmed the earth to it's current "just right for us " temperature.

By the same token however increasing GG gases by the very substantial amount we have been doing is and will trap more heat in the atmosphere. Currently this is the biggest influence on our climate.

With regard to the range of climate changes you have seen in your life. I accept your experience as valid. Unfortunately it doesn't help us to anticipate the changes that are happening and will accelerate as temperatures increase. It's also worth realizing that vast areas of the globe have had far larger increases in temperature than we have yet seen. The Arctic areas for example are now much warmer with the consequence of widespread melting of the permafrost and loss of ice cover. This is all on record.

With regard to the health of the Great Barrier Reef. In my view there are more expert scientists than Professor Carter who are not as confident about it's condition.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_in_the_Arctic

http://theconversation.com/the-state-of-the-great-barrier-reef-experts-respond-30450

 

[noco]

Noco I totally agree with you regarding the effects of the Sun on the Earth, the elliptical orbit and the rest. They do have a significant effect on our climate. All true. And in fact there are also other factors that affect the climate.

But perhaps what you learnt at school isn't the sum total of the science on how Earths climate is created ? And perhaps the science community itself has increased it's understanding in the past 20-30-40 years ? (I remember for example that Tectonic Plate theory which showed that the continents moved around the earth was only just being understood when I was a school. )

The simple point I'm making is that greenhouse gases are a critical factor in the creation of our climate. They trap heat from the sun and have warmed the earth to it's current "just right for us " temperature.

By the same token however increasing GG gases by the very substantial amount we have been doing is and will trap more heat in the atmosphere. Currently this is the biggest influence on our climate.

With regard to the range of climate changes you have seen in your life. I accept your experience as valid. Unfortunately it doesn't help us to anticipate the changes that are happening and will accelerate as temperatures increase. It's also worth realizing that vast areas of the globe have had far larger increases in temperature than we have yet seen. The Arctic areas for example are now much warmer with the consequence of widespread melting of the permafrost and loss of ice cover. This is all on record.

With regard to the health of the Great Barrier Reef. In my view there are more expert scientists than Professor Carter who are not as confident about it's condition.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_in_the_Arctic

http://theconversation.com/the-state-of-the-great-barrier-reef-experts-respond-30450

Basilio why are you still persisting with this old adage that the ice is melting in the Arctic and Antarctic when in actual fact it is increasing.....You are still persisting with the Global Warming farce when in fact Global warming has plateaued over the past 18 years while you are saying the emissions of CO2 have increased.

Please go back to my posts # 6344 and # 6347 and the corresponding links.

 

[basilio]

Trainspotter used a reference from Spencer Wearts website "The Discovery of Global Warming" in an earlier exchange.

I had seen Spencer's work previously but on reviewing it again I realised just how thorough he has been in pulling together all the threads of this debate. It is a great piece of work. I thought his Personal Note at the end was an excellent summary.

A Personal Note

What can we do about global warming, and what should we do?

Faced with scientists who publish warnings, the public's natural response is to ask them for definitive guidance. When the scientists fail to say for certain what will happen, politicians habitually tell them to go back and do more research. In the case of climate, waiting for absolute certainty would mean waiting forever. When we are faced with a new disease or an armed invasion, we do not put off decisions until more research is done. We act using the best guidelines available.

My training as a physicist and historian of science has given me some feeling for where scientific claims are reliable and where they are shaky. Of course climate science is full of uncertainties, and nobody claims to know exactly what the climate will do. That very uncertainty is part of what, I am confident, is known beyond doubt ”” our planet's climate can change, tremendously and unpredictably. Beyond that we can conclude (with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 2007 report) that it is very likely that significant global warming is coming in our lifetimes. This surely brings a likelihood of harm, widespread and grave (see this summary of expected impacts). The few who contest these facts are either ignorant, or so committed to their viewpoint that they will seize on any excuse to deny the danger.

Thanks to the strenuous labors by thousands of people described in these essays, we have had a warning in time ”” although just barely in time. If there is even a small risk that your house will burn down, you will take care to install smoke alarms and buy insurance. We can scarcely do less for the well-being of our society and the planet's ecosystems. Thus the only useful discussion is over what measures are worth their cost.

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/SWnote.htm

I thought the graph below was neat way of bringing together the major effects on our climate into one graph. It is almost 6 years old and in fact current temperatures have now reached 1998 levels.

Recent research has also indicated that global temperatures in the last 20 years were in fact higher than believed.

 

[trainspotter]

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm

The "hockey stick" graph was prominently featured in a report the IPCC issued in 2001. The image immediately became a powerful tool for people who were trying to raise public awareness of global warming ”” to the regret of some seasoned climate experts who recognized that, like all science at the point of publication, the graph was preliminary and uncertain.

Warmer ... getting warmer.

Did you even read my post or the link I put up for you to devour?

Acknowledging that the increasing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere should give a tendency for warming, Mitchell tentatively suggested that smoke from recent volcanic eruptions and perhaps cyclical changes in the Sun might partly account for the reversal. (Later studies confirmed that volcanoes and solar changes probably did have some cooling effect around that time, along with a natural long-term cycle of Pacific Ocean weather.) But he rightly held that "such theories appear to be insufficient to account for the recent cooling," and he could only conclude that the downturn was "a curious enigma." He suspected the cooling might be part of a natural "rhythm," a cycle lasting 80 years or so. The veteran science correspondent Walter Sullivan was at the meeting, and he reported in the New York Times (January 25 and 30, 1961) that after days of discussion the meteorologists generally agreed on the existence of the cooling trend, but could not agree on a cause for this or any other climate change. "Many schools of thought were represented... and, while the debate remained good-humored, there was energetic dueling with scientific facts." The confused state of climate science was a public embarrassment.

In 1961 they had no clue ... whatsoever. Warming or cooling ... no idea

So I wrote this which you completely ignored and went on in your shrill little catastrophic voice yet again:-

Yeah it was one of the more "balanced" missives I have read in a long time explaining that the scientists jumped the gun a bit on their modelling as they really had no clue as to what they were actually observing. This is why they are having a tough time now pushing their barrow as the information they let loose to the public was full of factual errors. Now that they have more of a grasp of what they are studying they are finding that nature is a very tricky BIATCH indeed !

Which you somehow painted me out to be some big river in Egypt ... De Nial.

You then went on to ram down my throat that their thesis was NOT full of factual errors:-

In an attempt to force scientists to agree on a useful answer, in 1977 the U.S. Department of Defense persuaded two dozen of the world's top climate experts to respond to a complicated survey. Their main conclusion was that scientific knowledge was meager and all predictions were unreliable. The panel was nearly equally divided among three opinions: some thought further cooling was likely, others suspected that moderate greenhouse warming would begin fairly soon, and most of the rest expected the climate would stay about the same at least for the next couple of decades.

And this little gem must have passed your myopic gaze:-

Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record."

Yep the Earth has got warmer ... no doubt about it. Now because 78 scientists have agreed on one subject matter in the past 8 years that the Earth has gotten warmer does seem a little hard to swallow due to the fact they were squabbling over if it was cooling or heating less than 40 years ago.

Yep it's getting warmer so instead of throwing billions of dollars to fund BS science and quangos why don't they throw the money at developing BETTER solutions or REFINING the nasty polluting industries or better yet ... put the money towards helping man mitigate the risk of the inevitable "global warming" catastrophe.

You figure it out

 

[trainspotter]

Yep it's getting warmer so instead of throwing billions of dollars to fund BS science and quangos why don't they throw the money at developing BETTER solutions or REFINING the nasty polluting industries or better yet ... put the money towards helping man mitigate the risk of the inevitable "global warming" catastrophe.

And Barack agrees ....

The Obama administration laid out a major step Friday in its fight against climate change with a plan it said would reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses by 1 billion metric tons.

The matching regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Transportation Department would improve fuel efficiency standards by an average of 24 percent for medium-sized and heavy trucks, buses and big trailers through model year 2027, which would cut the output of Earth-warming carbon dioxide while saving 1.8 billion barrels of oil.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...9_bo_epa-standards_trucks_3&utm_medium=socnet

 

[noco]

I think we have just broken the Guinness Book of records....Can anyone believe it is now 11 days since there has been any propaganda from the "ALARMISTS".....I do hope they have given up and rolled over to the skeptics..

 

[Ijustnewit]

I think we have just broken the Guinness Book of records....Can anyone believe it is now 11 days since there has been any propaganda from the "ALARMISTS".....I do hope they have given up and rolled over to the skeptics..

The ABC has been running a story all day about the Frilly Neck Lizards in the outback that are changing their sex because of climate change and increased temperatures. Also London has just recorded their hottest day in July ever on written records. Perth in WA has just had it's hottest June on record and we also have the first ever recorded Tropical Cyclone in the Coral Sea occurring in Winter. So just wait Noco it won't be to far away
Also may I mention that the current El Nino is looking like being a rather strong event on the Nino index , there will plenty of news and disasters caused by the weather come Spring and Summer. :1zhelp:

 

[noco]

The ABC has been running a story all day about the Frilly Neck Lizards in the outback that are changing their sex because of climate change and increased temperatures. Also London has just recorded their hottest day in July ever on written records. Perth in WA has just had it's hottest June on record and we also have the first ever recorded Tropical Cyclone in the Coral Sea occurring in Winter. So just wait Noco it won't be to far away
Also may I mention that the current El Nino is looking like being a rather strong event on the Nino index , there will plenty of news and disasters caused by the weather come Spring and Summer. :1zhelp:

There has been no Global Warming for 18 years....It is called Climate Change......it's been going on for thousands of years.......Just settle down, enjoy what we have at the present......next year will be different to last year and in the year 3015...They had extreme weather in 1911.....That is when my old lady lost her house with a category 5 cyclone in Port Douglas, the same year the Yongala went down to Davey Jones locker.

The Sun will rise tomorrow morning just as it has done so for the last 1 million years.

So Ijustnewt, the Globe has been through it all before....You worry too much !!!!!!

 

[Logique]

We're having the coldest winter in a long time here in southern NSW, with some decadal low temps being recorded.

The Winnebagos are idling in the driveways, just itching to get away north and grace Garpal and fellow QLD'ers with their presence.

 

[Logique]

Damn you global warming! Which need we ask, is undoubtedly causing this.

Biggest cold outbreak since 2000 to send temperatures plunging - 9 July 2015
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...-in-temperatures-snow-to-alps-20150709-gi88ak

A strong cold front will sweep over much of Australia over the weekend, potentially causing the largest outbreak of frigid conditions in 15 years, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The likelihood of snow falling over the ranges all the way up into Queensland also has emergency services warning motorists and those planning outdoor activities such as skiing or camping to "plan carefully for the cold conditions".

Blair Trewin, senior climatologist with the bureau, said the last time Australia had such a large northward spread of snowfall was in May 2000.....

....."We're expecting temperatures will plummet, winds will be fresh to strong, and snow will fall down to low elevations," Barry Hanstrum, NSW regional director at the bureau, said.

Areas likely to receive snow include Orange and Bathhurst in NSW and the tops of mountains in south-eastern Queensland. (The bureau's chart below shows where snow is likely by 10am AEST on Sunday.).....

 

[Knobby22]

Is the old point of differentiation - climate vs weather. I don't recall anyone saying there would be no more cold snaps, just rarer, and its been 15 years since the last one. They were far more common previously.
As a kid we used to have regular frosts.

BTW There's been awful snow this year.
We need some cold weather with precipitation.

 

[noco]

Damn you global warming! Which need we ask, is undoubtedly causing this.

I believe they are expecting snow in some of Melbourne suburbs........I think it is called Climate Change or is it the beginning of a Minnie ice age.......who knows it might even snow in Sydney next year.

 

[explod]

Its the rising of extremes, a slight warming of the poles is causing increased cloud from the poles which in turn is creating colder spots at times and hotter areas.

Humankind have survived millions of years in relative comfort, but now increasing numbers are perishing from more frequent and warmer heat waves.

Hiding in the sand will not protect anyone from the increasing and observable changes we are witnessing now.

 

[noco]

Its the rising of extremes, a slight warming of the poles is causing increased cloud from the poles which in turn is creating colder spots at times and hotter areas.

Humankind have survived millions of years in relative comfort, but now increasing numbers are perishing from more frequent and warmer heat waves.

Hiding in the sand will not protect anyone from the increasing and observable changes we are witnessing now.

But it does not seem to matter with you Alarmists whether it is extreme cold, extreme heat, floods, drought, cyclones, good weather, bad weather, it IS in your mind set, man made Global warming........I have witnessed it all over the past 80 years...nothing has changed except the attitude, so called fictitious modelling and the big push by the United Nations to put fear into peoples minds.

Slight warming of the poles?????The last report I read indicated a build up of ice.

I am surprised the alarmist are not blaming man made Global warming or climate change on the extreme earth quakes and extreme volcanoes.

 

[noco]

It is going to snow west of Brisbane on Sunday......A rare occasion indeed......It must be Global Warming, I mean Climate Change.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/28747204/snow-forecast-for-qld-as-cold-snap-hits/

An icy blast from the Antarctic is about to sweep southern Queensland, bringing chilly temperatures, frosty winds and even snow.