XAO Technical Analysis

[RazzaDazzla]

SPI 2 hourly chart. Fib retracement line and stochastic oscillator. Looks to be some bullish divergence close to triggering.

I'm hoping that this concludes an ABC correction to the downside and a resumption of the uptrend. Perhaps the Aussie can jump on the Shanghai coat tails and onwards and upwards?

 

[RazzaDazzla]

So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.

 

[coolcup]

So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.

What does this mean?!

 

[tech/a]

What does this mean?!

On a two hr chart in the context of the index-----very little.
But bearish

 

[piggybank]

Bearish.....

 

[tech/a]

So rather than an ABC correction, then C is now looking more like a wave 3.

Yeh bearish
In the context of a two hr chart.
With regard to the index very little.

I seem to be repeating myself!

 

[nulla nulla]

View attachment 55796

View attachment 55797

Bearish.....

Looks like the resistance line at 5150 became a support line, then failed to hold the second downturn. May possibly become a resistance line again but don't know where the next support line is? Foreign investors appear to be pulling their investment funds out of Australia ahead of the xmas break. Too much negative jawboning about the economy and the Aud$ dropping undermining confidence atm.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

This is a SPI futures continuous Chart.

Standing out for me is a 61.8% retracement of the previous up move. If there's a high close today, this appears to be a rejection of the 61.8%.

I also note a divergence between price and the oscillator.

So does this conclude an A-B-C correction and onwards and upwards?

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Long time... no updates. Is everyone on holiday? I miss these discussions - I found them extremely interesting... please come back!

 

[Bazmate]

Interesting spike in volume last week but good luck picking the next move.

I'm cautiously optimistic but I'm not sure why....

Baz

 

[Trembling Hand]

Interesting spike in volume last week but good luck picking the next move.

I'm cautiously optimistic but I'm not sure why....

Baz

The spike in volume was from futures expiry. Means nothing other than arbitrage trades being closed out. Same thing happens every 3 months.

 

[damdin]

Any sign of exhaustion of bulls, cos this has been dragging too long.

 

[Muschu]

Curious as to why the level of contribution to this thread waxes and wanes so much.

I consider TA significant but there seem to be lengthy episodes where TA advocates seem very quiet.

May have this wrong and be missing something.

 

[Joe Blow]

Curious as to why the level of contribution to this thread waxes and wanes so much.

I consider TA significant but there seem to be lengthy episodes where TA advocates seem very quiet.

May have this wrong and be missing something.

I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.

Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts.

Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Attempted breakout, closed well off the days opening highs. Bearish signal?

 

[RazzaDazzla]

Attempted breakout, closed well off the days opening highs. Bearish signal?

So my previous comment re. a bearish signal is well and truly being tested. Onwards and upwards from here? Or another fakeout and back down again?

This is a chart of SPI Index from IB. I assume it is derived from continuous SPI data.

 

[Sean K]

I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.

Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts.

Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.

Will try Joe. Been distracted a little recently. Time I got back in the saddle I think...

 

[Ann]

I think sometimes threads just get forgotten after they slip off the first page. I'm considering creating a thread that will serve as a central reference point for threads like this, so they can be easily tracked down by both regular members and newcomers.

Like you, I would love to see this thread revived with some new XAO technical analysis. If anyone feels so inclined, please feel free to pick up where the others have left off and post up some charts.

Just so others are aware, this is a purely TA XAO thread. There is another thread - XAO Banter Thread - that is intended for more general XAO discussion.

Cheers Joe,

Let's whack up a couple of charts for the fun of it and give it a bump!

OK, for the experienced chartists out there I am going to now tell my grandmother how to suck eggs...or lemons or whatevr!

This is for those who may still have not have come to grips with the more subtle details of charting.

I like to look at charts in the long view, as long as I possible can but there is one thing about looking at long term charts and that is setting it in the right scale to get the information you want to see. Short term charts are set in Linear scale, if you look at very long term charts in linear you get flattened contours and the true picture is somewhat distorted. Charts need to be set in Logarithmic or semi-Log in order to see the contours and draw lines which can actually tell you something.

Let me show you what I mean with two charts. Both charts are identicle other than the first is set in Linear and the second is set in Logarithmic.

The first chart just looks like the All Ords is going like a bullet train, well above its trend line.....but is it?

The second chart shows the long term trend line failed and now the more recent trendline may well be acting as an overhead resistance and may cause a retracement in the All Ords.

Let's see!

 

[rimtas]

Hello all, I will post my view using EW as I trading/investing purely by using this method.

First of all I would like to mention that 2007-2009 crash was in Three Waves witch is important because 3 Waves usually means a correction. But looking at the long term charts (spaning decades), these 3 Waves are very short in terms of time.

So what market can do is to make a double Three correction W, X and Y, where each Wave consists of Three Waves. I marked these W and X Waves as a circled Waves, so what is missing is another 3 Waves Down at Primary Degree to new lows (below 2009).

I think we are at the very important juncture now, as you can count 5 Waves from 2011 low complete or almost complete, which will end Intermediate Wave (C). Also, it looks like from the mid 2013 market is forming an Ending Diagonal (ED), a pattern where all internal subdivisions consists of three Waves and ED usually means a swift reversal to the bottom of where the pattern started, in this case to 4600.

This is a probability only, to pick the exact top is very difficult. We still don't have 5 Waves down at least in a Daily Chart, this would be a confirmation of a trend change. Also, if you look at the weekly RSI, it is still in the Trend Mode-bouncing every time when correction ends. If it brakes lower in the coming weeks, it will make a further rally very unlikely, It worth looking at this.

On a bullish side you can see that 61.8% level was broken which is actually bullish, I remember the same action when I traded in US markets and DOW JONES did the same thing late 2010 and kept rallying afterwards to new ATH.

So things to watch is weekly RSI and the wave structure on a Daily. I sold all my positions last week and now need a confirmation from the market-what it will do next. Later I will post an alternate bullish count, but at this stage I am sceptical about it. US markets have fallen in Five Waves down from the top, it could drag down the whole world indexes later .

 

[nulla nulla]

A picture can say more than a thousand words: