Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

Climate change itself - I do agree that the climate is changing. There is more than enough evidence that things are significantly different now as compared to what was considered "average" for the 20th Century.

Causes - May or may not be man-made but commonsense does suggest that something would likely happen in response to a change in composition of the Earth's atmosphere.

It's the politics of it all I detest. The harsh reality is that the use of coal and gas is soaring whilst oil use is also slowly but surely grinding upwards. No amount of propaganda changes these facts. To deceive the public into thinking that Kyoto or the carbon tax is actually fixing the problem is what I take issue with. It's an outright lie at best.

If the problem is indeed real then I suspect action will be much like that in any crisis. It will come about only due to the lack of any alternative. If we're going to scrap fiat money and the notion of constant GDP growth being desirable, then that's not likely to happen voluntarily. It will take weather events, or a physical shortage of fossil fuels, to actually force that change the hard way.

Same goes for the large scale adoption of alternative energies. Technically we can do it but people aren't likely to accept a world where energy harvesting is itself a dominant activity until there is no choice. At some point we're going to do a lot with geothermal, wind, solar and we will likely build more big dams too. But with few exceptions the community isn't ready to accept that yet so we'll stick with fossil fuels until either something drastic happens or the whole issue is debunked.

Humans don't act until there's a crisis. That's just how it is.

 

[wayneL]

I will not say a thing now. Except we are in tough times in my view.

waneL will eventually lose this one.

Brother and I increasing the home vegie patch on his 4 acres, lucky to have good bore water too.

On the alternative power, currently working on storage. Rebuilding thrown out batteries the latest idea.

What exactly am I going to lose?

I feel a strawman coming on. Are you dishonestly misrepresenting my views again?

 

[orr]

What exactly am I going to lose?

I'm not even going to guess at what you own, to suggest what you may stand to lose, or gain for that matter.
But if I were an individual with coastal tourist interests in south east Queensland. By coincidence, one of which I looked at last week, that have taken a 40% hair cut already on their book value(( a Korean backed development at Paradise Pt) and still over priced). the confirmed Irakandji jelly fish stings that have occurred off Fraser Is since Xmas, the latest being today, the latest of four;

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...on-fraser-island/story-e6freoof-1226549285977

Puts a dark cloud on the very near Northern Horizon to Noosa and the Skin Cancer Coast.

And Warning from one of those alarmist scientists from five years ago;

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-the-move-south/story-e6frg6oo-1111113237301

Remind us, what did Monkton Plimer et al have to say on the issue.

Ahh what the heck, on this issue, I'll go out on limb and take a wild guess and say... 'your credibility'

 

[Knobby22]

Humans don't act until there's a crisis. That's just how it is.

And I agree with your other comments re: politicization. The method of creating change through taxes and free market economic thinking is not the way to go. The way is to encourage new energy sources and more efficient technologies to be developed combined with government regulation.


China being a controlled economy is acting -for its own interest of course. Maybe we can beg for them to let us have the technology at a high price in the future.

If China can crack thorium, it will have clean energy for 20,000 years.

A thorium reactor could even help clean up hazardous waste.

THE Chinese are running away with thorium energy, giving an edge to a global race for the prize of clean, cheap and safe nuclear power. Good luck to them. They may do us all a favour.

Jiang Mianheng, son of former leader Jiang Zemin, is spearheading a project for the Chinese Academy of Sciences with a start-up budget of $US350 million. He has already recruited 140 scientists working full time on thorium power at the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics. He will have 750 staff by 2015.

The aim is to break free of the old pressurised-water reactors fuelled by uranium - originally designed for US submarines in the 1950s - in favour of thorium reactors that produce far less toxic waste and cannot blow their tops like Fukushima.

''China is the country to watch,'' said Bryony Worthington, head of Britain's All-Party Parliamentary Group on Thorium Energy, who visited the Shanghai operations recently.

''They are really going for it, and have talented researchers. This could lead to a massive break-through.''

The thorium story is by now well known. Enthusiasts believe it could be the transforming technology needed to drive the industrial revolutions of Asia - and to avoid an almighty energy crunch as 2 billion more people climb the ladder to Western lifestyles.

At the least, it could do for nuclear power what shale fracking has done for natural gas - but on a bigger scale, for much longer, perhaps more cheaply, and with near zero carbon dioxide emissions.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/s...a-pipedream-20130107-2ccqh.html#ixzz2HLWtbcP5

 

[explod]

What exactly am I going to lose?

I feel a strawman coming on. Are you dishonestly misrepresenting my views again?

Well perhaps I overstate as usual.

The problem I find difficult to deal with is the word in this thread called Hysteria.

Perhaps would could think of the subject as being Climate Concern

I do appreciate wayneL that you have concerns. It is the conditions, we have been there before and just part of the natural cycle. Or it is different this time and some of us are alarmed.

Yes we have hacked around the edges of this cloth before but I believe more effort should be made to give all sides a greater airing and not just stomp it on the head out of hand.

 

[basilio]

Why are scientists confident that human producing CO2 is the core of current global warming and larger increase in the near future ?

Came across and excellent review of the evidence around this position on Skeptical Science. All the reasons have links.

Climate Change Cluedo: Anthropogenic CO2
Posted on 25 July 2012 by Tom Curtis
Anthropogenic CO2?

The human-caused origin (anthropogenic) of the measured increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is a cornerstone of predictions of future temperature rises. As such, it has come under frequent attack by people who challenge the science of global warming. One thing noteworthy about those attacks is that the full range of evidence supporting the anthropogenic nature of the CO2 increase seems to slip from sight. So what is the full range of supporting evidence? There are ten main lines of evidence to be considered:

The start of the growth in CO2 concentration coincides with the start of the industrial revolution, hence anthropogenic;
Increase in CO2 concentration over the long term almost exactly correlates with cumulative anthropogenic emissions, hence anthropogenic;
Annual CO2 concentration growth is less than Annual CO2 emissions, hence anthropogenic;
Declining C14 ratio indicates the source is very old, hence fossil fuel or volcanic (ie, not oceanic outgassing or a recent biological source);
Declining C13 ratio indicates a biological source, hence not volcanic;
Declining O2 concentration indicate combustion, hence not volcanic;
Partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean is increasing, hence not oceanic outgassing;
Measured CO2 emissions from all (surface and beneath the sea) volcanoes are one-hundredth of anthropogenic CO2 emissions; hence not volcanic;
Known changes in biomass too small by a factor of 10, hence not deforestation; and
Known changes of CO2 concentration with temperature are too small by a factor of 10, hence not ocean outgassing.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/anthrocarbon-brief.html

____________________________________________________________________________________

PS The BOM has added some new colours to its climate graphs to indicate expected temperatures in Australia above 50C in the coming days.

And we have already smashed temperature records across the country.

http://www.theage.com.au/environmen...stralia-turns-deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html

 

[Some Dude]

Why are scientists confident that human producing CO2 is the core of current global warming and larger increase in the near future ?

I also find circumstances like these compelling.

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.

...

The careful analysis by our team is laid out in five scientific papers now online at BerkeleyEarth.org. That site also shows our chart of temperature from 1753 to the present, with its clear fingerprint of volcanoes and carbon dioxide, but containing no component that matches solar activity. Four of our papers have undergone extensive scrutiny by the scientific community, and the newest, a paper with the analysis of the human component, is now posted, along with the data and computer programs used. Such transparency is the heart of the scientific method; if you find our conclusions implausible, tell us of any errors of data or analysis.

 

[wayneL]

I'm not even going to guess at what you own, to suggest what you may stand to lose, or gain for that matter.
But if I were an individual with coastal tourist interests in south east Queensland. By coincidence, one of which I looked at last week, that have taken a 40% hair cut already on their book value(( a Korean backed development at Paradise Pt) and still over priced). the confirmed Irakandji jelly fish stings that have occurred off Fraser Is since Xmas, the latest being today, the latest of four;

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...on-fraser-island/story-e6freoof-1226549285977

Puts a dark cloud on the very near Northern Horizon to Noosa and the Skin Cancer Coast.

And Warning from one of those alarmist scientists from five years ago;

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-the-move-south/story-e6frg6oo-1111113237301

Remind us, what did Monkton Plimer et al have to say on the issue.

Ahh what the heck, on this issue, I'll go out on limb and take a wild guess and say... 'your credibility'

That would be right out on a limb orr. In fact it is the climate pseudo-scientific/political advocacy lobby which is suffering a credibility crisis. This is why you clowns are losing support generally.

I'll stand by my views as a lukewarmer and reserve the right to change them in either direction as evidence dictates.

I won't have a religious adherence to an extreme view like you (et al).

 

[wayneL]

I also find circumstances like these compelling.

LOL!!! We've had our way with that little untruth on this thread already Some Dude.

 

[Some Dude]

LOL!!! We've had our way with that little untruth on this thread already Some Dude.

I look forward to your direction on the matter then

 

[IFocus]

Mean While

And the country has set a new national average maximum of 40.33 degrees on Monday, beating the previous record - set on December 21, 1972 - by a "sizeable margin" of 0.16 degrees, Dr Jones said, adding that the figures are preliminary.

"Today is actually shaping up to be hotter - and it could be a record by a similar margin," he said.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html#ixzz2HNB7h3rC

 

[sydboy007]

I suppose I'm in the lucky (sic) position of having no children and being 40 yrs old will hopefully have fallen off me perch before the forecast full effects of climate change have ravaged the world.

My feeling is if we're dubya stoopid to not change our ways, then let the natural course take its way.

People don't seem to realise how fragile the global economic system is. A few years of drought in the USA / Australia / Russia and suddenly the major food exporters are not feeding the world. The US drought is still ongoing. I would say get ready for anything wheat based to get expensive as the year progresses. It's not looking too good for a lot of Aussie farmers this year either. Food sotckpiles are at historically low - unless an slight increase in rice production gives you confidence (has to be the least nutritionally major food crop)

Production dislocation through civil unrest in parts of the world is something I see happening in the not too distant future. A regional war over fresh water is also pretty much a given with the way resources have been polluted and depleted - water tables pretty much everywhere are falling at alarming rates. Building a new dam on the Mekong river could be classified as an act of war.

It is the grandchildren of my generation I worry about. They are going to grow up in a very insecure world. I'm already a pretty frugal energy consumer, so feel I've done my part. If the rest of you want to keep buying record number of 4WDs and run the aircon at all hours of the day, well I hope you can live with any negative consequences the may or may not arise.

How anyone can argue with a push towards energy efficiency is beyond me. The current carbon price in Australia is negligible, though has hopefully made Australians realise that energy efficiency is prob the cheapest form of insurance against climate change we can make. the argument is we're too small, can't make a difference is simply wrong. Gandhi was one man and helped to topple an empire. Actions speak louder than words, and generally provide far better encouragement for others to follow.

 

[explod]

Top post there sydboy007

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I suppose I'm in the lucky (sic) position of having no children and being 40 yrs old will hopefully have fallen off me perch before the forecast full effects of climate change have ravaged the world.

My feeling is if we're dubya stoopid to not change our ways, then let the natural course take its way.

People don't seem to realise how fragile the global economic system is. A few years of drought in the USA / Australia / Russia and suddenly the major food exporters are not feeding the world. The US drought is still ongoing. I would say get ready for anything wheat based to get expensive as the year progresses. It's not looking too good for a lot of Aussie farmers this year either. Food sotckpiles are at historically low - unless an slight increase in rice production gives you confidence (has to be the least nutritionally major food crop)

Production dislocation through civil unrest in parts of the world is something I see happening in the not too distant future. A regional war over fresh water is also pretty much a given with the way resources have been polluted and depleted - water tables pretty much everywhere are falling at alarming rates. Building a new dam on the Mekong river could be classified as an act of war.

It is the grandchildren of my generation I worry about. They are going to grow up in a very insecure world. I'm already a pretty frugal energy consumer, so feel I've done my part. If the rest of you want to keep buying record number of 4WDs and run the aircon at all hours of the day, well I hope you can live with any negative consequences the may or may not arise.

How anyone can argue with a push towards energy efficiency is beyond me. The current carbon price in Australia is negligible, though has hopefully made Australians realise that energy efficiency is prob the cheapest form of insurance against climate change we can make. the argument is we're too small, can't make a difference is simply wrong. Gandhi was one man and helped to topple an empire. Actions speak louder than words, and generally provide far better encouragement for others to follow.

You need to take the condoms off or reverse your vasectomy and have a good root mate.

The godbotherers will outnumber people with your ethic well before you would have grandchildren.

There seems to be a cognitive dissonance between infertility and a good earth.

Buggered if I know how you professors come to that conclusion.

The first time I ever came in to land at an airport in a third world country a bloke sitting beside me said.

"There are three things in common with all these godforsaken places.

The smell of smoke, the smell of **** and the number of children."

And he was right.

And the misogynists in the ALP give Tony Abbott a hard time for having three kids and a stable family life, in a proud Australia.


gg

 

[sydboy007]

You need to take the condoms off or reverse your vasectomy and have a good root mate.

The godbotherers will outnumber people with your ethic well before you would have grandchildren.

There seems to be a cognitive dissonance between infertility and a good earth.

Buggered if I know how you professors come to that conclusion.

The first time I ever came in to land at an airport in a third world country a bloke sitting beside me said.

"There are three things in common with all these godforsaken places.

The smell of smoke, the smell of **** and the number of children."

And he was right.

And the misogynists in the ALP give Tony Abbott a hard time for having three kids and a stable family life, in a proud Australia.


gg

GG

the reason why I don't have children is because a long time ago I decided I was too selfish to devote the time and energy to them. Don't really care if that makes me a good or bad person. I think at least I show a level of honesty far higher than most.

I find your responses targeting other posters quite annoying, especially as you make assertions that are based solely on your, frankly, warped point of view. I also find it quite offensive for you to tell me how to live my life! Your lack of civility tells more about your character than mine!

So how about you stick to the facts, less of your biased attacks.

Oh, and the best form of contraception is literacy. Do a bit of research and you will find that as a society becomes more educated and prosperous, the fertility rate declines.

 

[Smurf1976]

The current carbon price in Australia is negligible, though has hopefully made Australians realise that energy efficiency is prob the cheapest form of insurance against climate change we can make. the argument is we're too small, can't make a difference is simply wrong. Gandhi was one man and helped to topple an empire. Actions speak louder than words, and generally provide far better encouragement for others to follow.

If it were to be effective then we'd need to take action to prevent the relocation of energy-intensive production offshore.

Trade barriers or tariffs is where this one leads. I'm not necessarily for or against them, but if you're an energy-intensive industry by nature and have a tax adding 60% to your electricity costs then it's hard to compete without protection that's for sure.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mean While

And the country has set a new national average maximum of 40.33 degrees on Monday, beating the previous record - set on December 21, 1972 - by a "sizeable margin" of 0.16 degrees, Dr Jones said, adding that the figures are preliminary.

"Today is actually shaping up to be hotter - and it could be a record by a similar margin," he said.



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html#ixzz2HNB7h3rC

And who is Dr.Jones one might ask?

Can he take out tonsils? no.

Can he take out an appendix? no.

He is funded.

He who pays the piper plays the tune.

He robs the Sun of it's rays. What happens when that runs out?.

DR DAVID JONES
Bio 21 Institute


Dr David Jones received both his BSc (Hons. 1986), and PhD (Chemistry) (1995) from the University of Tasmania. He completed postdoctoral research periods in Sheffield, UK (Organic Chemistry) and Cardiff, UK (organometallic chemistry and catalysts) before moving to Imperial College London where he was the Team Leader in the BP catalysts discovery team headed by Professor Vernon Gibson.

In 2004 Jones joined Professor Andrew Holmes at Cambridge University before relocating with Professor Holmes to the Bio21 Institute at the University of Melbourne. He is currently the Project Coordinator for a Federally funded, International Science Linkage (International Organic Solar Cell Consortium) $1.07M, including A-Star IMRE as a partner, and a Victorian Government funded grant under the Energy Technology Innovation Strategy DPI (Victorian Organic Solar Cell Consortium) $12M to develop printable organic solar cells.

Jones is also a member of the University of Melbourne Energy Institute Solar and Energy Futures research groups.

gg

 

[sptrawler]

And I agree with your other comments re: politicization. The method of creating change through taxes and free market economic thinking is not the way to go. The way is to encourage new energy sources and more efficient technologies to be developed combined with government regulation.


China being a controlled economy is acting -for its own interest of course. Maybe we can beg for them to let us have the technology at a high price in the future.

If China can crack thorium, it will have clean energy for 20,000 years.

A thorium reactor could even help clean up hazardous waste.

THE Chinese are running away with thorium energy, giving an edge to a global race for the prize of clean, cheap and safe nuclear power. Good luck to them. They may do us all a favour.

Jiang Mianheng, son of former leader Jiang Zemin, is spearheading a project for the Chinese Academy of Sciences with a start-up budget of $US350 million. He has already recruited 140 scientists working full time on thorium power at the Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics. He will have 750 staff by 2015.

The aim is to break free of the old pressurised-water reactors fuelled by uranium - originally designed for US submarines in the 1950s - in favour of thorium reactors that produce far less toxic waste and cannot blow their tops like Fukushima.

''China is the country to watch,'' said Bryony Worthington, head of Britain's All-Party Parliamentary Group on Thorium Energy, who visited the Shanghai operations recently.

''They are really going for it, and have talented researchers. This could lead to a massive break-through.''

The thorium story is by now well known. Enthusiasts believe it could be the transforming technology needed to drive the industrial revolutions of Asia - and to avoid an almighty energy crunch as 2 billion more people climb the ladder to Western lifestyles.

At the least, it could do for nuclear power what shale fracking has done for natural gas - but on a bigger scale, for much longer, perhaps more cheaply, and with near zero carbon dioxide emissions.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/s...a-pipedream-20130107-2ccqh.html#ixzz2HLWtbcP5

Interesting post Knobby, $350m isn't much of an investment for China, but the theory has merit.
Like I said great post.

 

[sptrawler]

I suppose I'm in the lucky (sic) position of having no children and being 40 yrs old will hopefully have fallen off me perch before the forecast full effects of climate change have ravaged the world.

My feeling is if we're dubya stoopid to not change our ways, then let the natural course take its way.

People don't seem to realise how fragile the global economic system is. A few years of drought in the USA / Australia / Russia and suddenly the major food exporters are not feeding the world. The US drought is still ongoing. I would say get ready for anything wheat based to get expensive as the year progresses. It's not looking too good for a lot of Aussie farmers this year either. Food sotckpiles are at historically low - unless an slight increase in rice production gives you confidence (has to be the least nutritionally major food crop)

Production dislocation through civil unrest in parts of the world is something I see happening in the not too distant future. A regional war over fresh water is also pretty much a given with the way resources have been polluted and depleted - water tables pretty much everywhere are falling at alarming rates. Building a new dam on the Mekong river could be classified as an act of war.

.

Sydboy, don't worry about food production for China. They are buying up W.A agricultural land and are also buying up the new irrigation areas of the ord river irrigation.
Labor paid out on Barnett for suggesting running an irrigation water pipe down W.A.
I don't think it fell on deaf ears in China.LOL

 

[sydboy007]

Sydboy, don't worry about food production for China. They are buying up W.A agricultural land and are also buying up the new irrigation areas of the ord river irrigation.
Labor paid out on Barnett for suggesting running an irrigation water pipe down W.A.
I don't think it fell on deaf ears in China.LOL

If the Chinese are willing to take the risks of buying up agricultural land in Australia with the hops it will feed them should the worst happen, then more fool them.

As was seen during SARS, when the chips are down even slightly, it's every country for themselves.

China would be better off stopping the desertification of their own country, reforming their agricultural sector to attain the efficiency of the US and Australia in terms of output rather than buying land somewhere else and hoping we will ship the produce to them.