Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

Sure, but that is my point, I want a base to work off, I'm going with M2 dropping causing lower inflation(with a lag)

All the Ifs and Buts can go sort it out behind the back shed, the ones left standing will have an influence but it's too hard to see those outcomes from here.

Could well be wrong and happy to adjust on the way through.

yes a big lump of flexibility in one's back pocket looks like a good plan

i am just steering clear of the US ( ever since Biden was elected )

good luck

 

[Value Hunter]

I'm just a simple Monetary guy, I leave the Keynesian stuff for those that think governments can fix stuff.

If the QTM is correct, or at least vaguely correct, 2025 should be a year of low inflation in the US given it's theorised 12/18 month lag.

View attachment 194505

Inflation has two factors. One is quantity of money and the other is velocity of money. Quantity if money is therefore only half the story. If the quantity has stabilised but the the velocity of money picks up you can still get an uptick in inflation. Just for reference here is a velocity of money chart so people can make up their own minds what is happening with that:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I believe Musk is not paying enough attention to his investments while he pursues waste in the Public Service. Tesla is heading for reasonably large problems, tariffs, competition from BYD inside and outside China, and a cutback in families buying fully EV vehicles.

At some stage he may be forced to leave DOGE in the care of his minions, Big Balls and other geniuses. Trump is good at befuddling his opponents but it is becoming obvious that he has bitten off more than he can chew. Without Musk he will not be able to achieve his aims. I don't see this affecting the US stock market yet, but we are in for a rocky ride without an end in sight.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

I believe Musk is not paying enough attention to his investments while he pursues waste in the Public Service. Tesla is heading for reasonably large problems, tariffs, competition from BYD inside and outside China, and a cutback in families buying fully EV vehicles.

At some stage he may be forced to leave DOGE in the care of his minions, Big Balls and other geniuses. Trump is good at befuddling his opponents but it is becoming obvious that he has bitten off more than he can chew. Without Musk he will not be able to achieve his aims. I don't see this affecting the US stock market yet, but we are in for a rocky ride without an end in sight.

gg

A lot of famous people who influence the world are filming sending their Teslas back or selling them. Elon's public perception is slipping by the day, and even his workers have come out against Elon, Trump had to intervene and defund govt legal action against space x and Tesla.

 

[moXJO]

Will peace in Ukraine give a sugar hit?
Feel like Putin is grandstanding a little too much lately that he's going to pull a Swan outta his bag.

 

[farmerge]

Will peace in Ukraine give a sugar hit?
Feel like Putin is grandstanding a little too much lately that he's going to pull a Swan outta his bag.

Well Putin (Putrid) has Trump (The Trumpet) in his back pocket. All of a sudden they are best buddies and Russia is no longer a world threat.

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Trump confirmed he plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on exports from both Mexico and Canada on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT), with “no room left” for negotiations. He also confirmed a second 10 per cent tariff increase on exports from China.

No disruption here.

 

[waterbottle]

Wow so its an Eastern bloc, Western bloc and then there's America....

 

[moXJO]

Trump confirmed he plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on exports from both Mexico and Canada on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT), with “no room left” for negotiations. He also confirmed a second 10 per cent tariff increase on exports from China.

No disruption here.

Just like that Trump throws this down. Hard to keep up with the market unless you are focusing on Trumps schedule.

 

[TimeISmoney]

I don't think this will end well for the US, all we need now is for the Brics to start trading in other currencies than the USD and it will be the start of cancel culture for the US.

 

[divs4ever]

Well Putin (Putrid) has Trump (The Trumpet) in his back pocket. All of a sudden they are best buddies and Russia is no longer a world threat.

well Russia COULD be a world threat IF it stopped all exports to the G7 nations ( less uranium oil , gas , nickel , neon gas , wheat , barley , iron , etc etc etc , and let demand do the rest )

and maybe that fact is dawning on them ( all those resources from alternate nations do NOT 'turn on automatically ' unlike export bans that can bite within days )

and ditto for China , remember the supply chain issues during the virus panic China has a BIG stick in the back pocket

 

[divs4ever]

I don't think this will end well for the US, all we need now is for the Brics to start trading in other currencies than the USD and it will be the start of cancel culture for the US.

they do already , but currently only between member states , some members ALSO do direct goods swaps , say oil for rice , gold for oil are two i am aware of )

some BRICS members half-expect to be booted from SWIFT ( and remember Iran and Indonesia are now full members , now )

 

[divs4ever]

China also allows direct goods swaps with Japan

 

[farmerge]

well Russia COULD be a world threat IF it stopped all exports to the G7 nations ( less uranium oil , gas , nickel , neon gas , wheat , barley , iron , etc etc etc , and let demand do the rest )

and maybe that fact is dawning on them ( all those resources from alternate nations do NOT 'turn on automatically ' unlike export bans that can bite within days )

and ditto for China , remember the supply chain issues during the virus panic China has a BIG stick in the back pocket

Especially when they locked the coal ships up in port.
As usual too many eggs in the one basket.
Sometimes just dealing with the cheapest supplier is not going to be the best outcome.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Especially when they locked the coal ships up in port.
As usual too many eggs in the one basket.
Sometimes just dealing with the cheapest supplier is not going to be the best outcome.

no eggs ... avian flu !

 

[Craton]

Why Donald Trump's trade war could spark a global financial market meltdown​

From the ABC, reads in part (note my bolds):

Even before Donald Trump shattered the idea of a western alliance over the weekend, an uneasy spectre had begun to roil through the global economy.

As with the onset of any major downturn, global stock and bond markets have begun jumping at shadows, nervously over-reacting to even minor blips in economic events while simultaneously attempting to digest what just a few months ago seemed unimaginable.

Troubles are brewing on at least three fronts.

The first is the sudden rewriting or even the abandonment of global strategic alliances that have been in place for 80 years.

The second is the imminent imposition of yet more US tariffs on American friends and foes alike, a strategy that appears likely to weaken an already fragile global economy still recovering from a global pandemic, the first inflation outbreak in half a century and wars in Europe and the Middle East.

Even without those titanic forces in play, overheated financial markets already had become susceptible to a correction.

 

[divs4ever]

Why Donald Trump's trade war could spark a global financial market meltdown​

From the ABC, reads in part (note my bolds):

it will certainly shake up some supply lines , the damage after that is yet to be seen

the BIG problem in the US is many imports do NOT have a locally made rival , so building that new factory , converting that farm takes TIME

 

[moXJO]

Why Donald Trump's trade war could spark a global financial market meltdown​

From the ABC, reads in part (note my bolds):

It's going to be glorious for market trading. Not so much in real life.
Trump is the black Swan autist the prophets foretold.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Trump is the black Swan autist the prophets foretold.

then what's Musk?