Copper

[Garpal Gumnut]

All my resource stocks are negative today. I had thought of adding to some of my dividend paying majors today but I'm unsure whether I'd be engaging in failed bottom picking.

I guess it will be bride's nightie stuff until Trump takes over and blows the markets up.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Copper​

Argonaut is most bullish on copper this year despite the metal’s correction from record highs of above $US11,000 a tonne reached in May.

Mr Franklyn believes the demand outlook for copper over the next five-plus years remains robust. At the same time, bringing substantial volumes of new supply online is difficult, with major high-grade discoveries becoming increasingly scarce.

Argonaut’s top pick is MAC Copper, which owns the high-grade CSA copper mine in Cobar, NSW. The fund also holds Firefly and Cygnus.

Tribeca Investment Partners is also bullish on the year ahead as China ramps up fiscal spending, boosting domestic consumption and increasing demand for industrial commodities.

“We believe commodity markets are positioned for a stellar 2025 following a number of frustrating years,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager of Tribeca’s Global Natural Resources Fund.

Tribeca is most bullish on copper, labelling its top picks as global leaders that are producing at the bottom of the cost curve. These include Glencore, Anglo American, Freeport-McMoRan and Teck Resources. In Australia, Mr Cleary likes Develop Global.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Interesting article in today's afr about Ivanhoe mining (Canada and US listed but i could only buy Canada) and congo mine/potentially take over target for bhp/rio

Ah, that Ivanhoe !!

Robert Friedland has found and built another of the world’s great copper mines, this time at Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC.
The dirt at Kamoa-Kakula is fabulously rich in copper and much of the power for the mine comes from carbon-free hydroelectric generators nearby.
Production has been under way for just over three years, but already Kamoa-Kakula is the world’s fourth-biggest copper producer. If expansions go to plan, it could sneak into second place by 2028.

At a time when BHP and Rio are hungry for copper and pulling the trigger on acquisitions, it’s curious that Ivanhoe and Kamoa-Kakula haven’t yet caught a bid.
.... A bid for Ivanhoe – which owns 39.6 per cent of Kamoa-Kakula – would be simpler to complete and should be doable at half the price.

The big Australian miners are impressed by what Friedland has created in the DRC; a delegation from Rio have visited Kamoa-Kakula, and according to those within earshot, the delegation left the DRC thinking they had seen the world’s best copper mine....

...DRC’s traditional reputation for sovereign risk (has improved); miners are generally encouraged by the way DRC president Félix Tshisekedi has prioritised investment into the DRC from American and European sources.

Tshisekedi has been rewarded by the US State Department for his perceived progress on human rights and anti-corruption measures, winning greater access to US markets under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Senior people now believe the DRC is investible for the right project; an extraordinary notion given the DRC was a byword for corruption and child labour barely a decade ago...

... the perceived problem with Kamoa-Kakula: transport and logistics.

The mine is land-locked about 1700 kilometres from the coast as the crow flies.

The vast majority of the copper produced at Kamoa-Kakula over the past three years has been trucked up to 3000 kilometres to ports like Durban in South Africa, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Walvis Bay in Namibia or Beira in Mozambique.


A return journey from Kamoa-Kakula to Durban often took 45 days, and rose to 70 days with congestion. Border crossings in Africa only create potential for complications.

The logistical cost of getting Kamoa-Kakula’s copper to port has been approximately 30 to 40 per cent of the mine’s C1 unit cost in recent years. According to Ivanhoe’s market filings, the C1 unit costs at Kamoa-Kakula were $US1.69 per pound in the September quarter.... (which are) competitive with the C1 costs BHP expects in the year to June 2025 at Escondida - between $US1.30 and $US1.60 per pound - and its South Australian copper mines at between $US1.30 and $US1.80 per pound.

Those two BHP copper hubs are 170 kilometres and 560 kilometres from port respectively, and they also have shorter shipping journeys to customers in North Asia.

 

[qldfrog]

Ah, that Ivanhoe !!

Robert Friedland has found and built another of the world’s great copper mines, this time at Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC.
The dirt at Kamoa-Kakula is fabulously rich in copper and much of the power for the mine comes from carbon-free hydroelectric generators nearby.
Production has been under way for just over three years, but already Kamoa-Kakula is the world’s fourth-biggest copper producer. If expansions go to plan, it could sneak into second place by 2028.

At a time when BHP and Rio are hungry for copper and pulling the trigger on acquisitions, it’s curious that Ivanhoe and Kamoa-Kakula haven’t yet caught a bid.
.... A bid for Ivanhoe – which owns 39.6 per cent of Kamoa-Kakula – would be simpler to complete and should be doable at half the price.

The big Australian miners are impressed by what Friedland has created in the DRC; a delegation from Rio have visited Kamoa-Kakula, and according to those within earshot, the delegation left the DRC thinking they had seen the world’s best copper mine....

...DRC’s traditional reputation for sovereign risk (has improved); miners are generally encouraged by the way DRC president Félix Tshisekedi has prioritised investment into the DRC from American and European sources.

Tshisekedi has been rewarded by the US State Department for his perceived progress on human rights and anti-corruption measures, winning greater access to US markets under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Senior people now believe the DRC is investible for the right project; an extraordinary notion given the DRC was a byword for corruption and child labour barely a decade ago...

... the perceived problem with Kamoa-Kakula: transport and logistics.

The mine is land-locked about 1700 kilometres from the coast as the crow flies.

The vast majority of the copper produced at Kamoa-Kakula over the past three years has been trucked up to 3000 kilometres to ports like Durban in South Africa, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Walvis Bay in Namibia or Beira in Mozambique.

View attachment 190608
A return journey from Kamoa-Kakula to Durban often took 45 days, and rose to 70 days with congestion. Border crossings in Africa only create potential for complications.

The logistical cost of getting Kamoa-Kakula’s copper to port has been approximately 30 to 40 per cent of the mine’s C1 unit cost in recent years. According to Ivanhoe’s market filings, the C1 unit costs at Kamoa-Kakula were $US1.69 per pound in the September quarter.... (which are) competitive with the C1 costs BHP expects in the year to June 2025 at Escondida - between $US1.30 and $US1.60 per pound - and its South Australian copper mines at between $US1.30 and $US1.80 per pound.

Those two BHP copper hubs are 170 kilometres and 560 kilometres from port respectively, and they also have shorter shipping journeys to customers in North Asia.

Thanks for copying the article, i read it in the paper form

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Biden visited Lobito during his Angola visit last December.
The Chinese have upgraded the railway and port already.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've just been watching Yahoo Finance live and Copper is making a run up. This should help our quarry and our market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-steady-china-shows-support-015951874.html

gg

 

[peter2]

No flies on you @Garpal Gumnut , fully informed on the current copper rally.

High volume too.

Copper's going to need much more than reduced China tariffs. We need China to grease their economic wheels.

Nice: Bought a little more MAC and cheese (CSC) today.

 

[peter2]

Timely article about the outlook for copper as it's started going higher.

Market Index - Kerry Sun Copper Jan9th article

Copper inventories are at high levels due to reduced economic growth in China and strong USD. This will change very quickly if China actually does something to stimulate their economy.

 

[Sean K]

Timely article about the outlook for copper as it's started going higher.

Market Index - Kerry Sun Copper Jan9th article

Copper inventories are at high levels due to reduced economic growth in China and strong USD. This will change very quickly if China actually does something to stimulate their economy.

$4 is looking like a pretty solid floor for the moment.

 

[DaveTrade]

US Copper is starting to show bullish signs. There is still no trend, see sma50 on chart, but my momentum indicator at the bottom of the chart is blue and has now broken above the zero line for the first time since Sep24.


Money flow is also moving in a positive direction in support of the bullish movement. Without a bullish trend it's not good enough for me but it has got my interest as one to watch.

 

[peter2]

Copper has now rallied 10% above its recent low. I didn't get the chance to load the van at $3.9/lb nor the truck at a lower price.


My futures contract is +$US9K while my copper miners position has hardly moved. The money I paid for the extra MAC and CSC would have been better used in the futures market. After seeing the under performance of the gold miners vs the POG last year you'd think I'd learn and make a change for copper. D'oh!

 

[rcw1]

Reported today (30/01/25) AFR:

Cyclical stocks poised for a comeback​

Michael Steele Fund manager
Jan 30, 2025 – 10.30am

In part:

Copper, in particular, is a commodity that will experience increased demand as the push towards net zero economies gathers pace.

The volume of copper per electric vehicle, for example, is up to four times more than required for an internal combustion engine car. It is also an essential component of both electrical transmission capacity and renewable energy infrastructure.

The wide range of applications for copper across different elements of the decarbonisation process, as well as the broader economy, mean this demand is unlikely to be impacted greatly by any uncertainty generated by the Trump administration’s climate policies.

In fact, conservative forecasts from BHP suggest that copper demand will increase by 70 per cent by 2050 – but supply is highly constrained and new copper mines face significant hurdles to establish.

Companies such as Capstone Copper (ASX: CSC) may be well-placed to capitalise on the anticipated increased demand. The dual-listed company – which sits on the Australian and Canadian bourses – has diversified operations across the US, Mexico and South America. Its production volume is likely to increase by up to 100 per cent over the next five years and its costs are expected to fall as those volumes increase and new mines are brought online.

Note: AFR extract posted also into CSC thread

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Copper update. That floor looks pretty solid. I was wondering what the tariffs kerfuffle might have on perceptions of growth. Hopefully it's mostly bluster or Trump just negotiates to what he wants.