RBA cash rate

[DannyB0000]

Though the treasurer does have the legal right to order the RBA to cut interest rates, no treasurer has ever done that before be it Labor or LNP in this country.

I blame the RBA for hiking rates in the way that it did.

 

[Value Collector]

I blame the RBA for hiking rates in the way that it did.

Didn’t other reserve banks around the world basically do the same? Why is it specifically the RBA’s fault?

 

[DannyB0000]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-23/greens-demand-rba-intervention/104378649
http://thedailyaus.com.au/stories/could-the-tresurer-lower-interest-rates/

Trying to post links in reference to what the treasurer can and can't do with the RBA on interest rates but none of these link will work. You can fact check this stuff on the internet yourself.

The Greens wanted Chalmers to force the RBA to cut rates back in September but Chalmers refused to intervene.

 

[Smurf1976]

its the first time I have heard that government aligned jobs have a built in protection that stopped them from generating inflation.

I'd have thought the opposite since CPI is routinely used as a benchmark for pay negotiations.

Way it works is employees a paid a level, they're not paid a specific salary but simply a level which is basically a code number. As an employee any negotiation will be about which level you're paid at, it won't be discussing actual $ amounts.

Reason being the levels all have set $ amounts, precise down to the cent, attached to them and that's where periodic negotiation takes place between government and unions. Those negotiations commonly use CPI as a reference point, meaning there's a positive feedback loop that higher CPI = higher salaries for public servants not immediately but whenever the next pay negotiation occurs (which can't be avoided since the agreements have a specific end date, and the next one is normally backdated).

 

[JohnDe]

if the measure of her sophistication as a lobbyist and representative of a sector of society is to stand in front of a building and shout slogans, then that crowd have lost, already.

The socialists and communists from the Labor Party, Greens, Teals and big Unions thought that they could create wealth for the country by pumping the economy with increased public servants and cash for NDIS, childcare, and infrastructure builds, etc.

They all fell into the trap that most of their ilk fall into. It is the private sector that creates wealth and prosperity, government are meant to look after the running of the country, help the disadvantaged and poor, and assist business with lean taxes, minimal red tape so that the money that governments spend is available.

Bob Hawke and Paul Keating got it.

Albanese, Wong and Marles, actually the whole front bench except for Farrell don't get it.

Though I think Marles has woken up to the fact and is now calling for business to invest to increase productivity, but he still doesn't understand that business need incentive. Why should a business invest to increase productivity and profits if they're going to create higher tax complexity and cost which eat into the profits. It becomes self-defeating.

 

[divs4ever]

She and her ilk are worried that the Labor party may lose the next election.

i can't work out why , the ALP seem to be doing such a great job ( sarcasm )

are they not believing their own narrative .. that can be lethal ( knives in the back at Caucus level )

 

[mullokintyre]

Overnight the AUD got crunched.
Rates did not change, but perceptions of future downward rates increased.
The irrationality of markets is on display.
US rates have had one reduction, Oz remains the same, but our currency gets crunched.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Overnight the AUD got crunched.
Rates did not change, but perceptions of future downward rates increased.
The irrationality of markets is on display.
US rates have had one reduction, Oz remains the same, but our currency gets crunched.
Mick

We get crushed because our economy is stuffed on fundamentals, and the only way mining and agro can save our bacon..till the next election is via a low and lower aud

 

[qldfrog]

We get crushed because our economy is stuffed on fundamentals, and the only way mining and agro can save our bacon..till the next election is via a low and lower aud

IR will fall, inflation will jump and RE will carry on booming

 

[Sharkman]

Didn’t other reserve banks around the world basically do the same? Why is it specifically the RBA’s fault?

The RBA didn't go early enough, nor did it go hard enough IMO, whereas other central banks eg. US, NZ did. It's too sensitive about causing political s#!tstorms and consequently its softly softly approach is costing us now with a protracted per capita recession. Would've been better to go early, go hard, induce a sharp but short lived recession, then start the recovery earlier I reckon. Though who knows whether that would've turned out better or worse, after all real life isn't like a video game where you can just reload an earlier save and try different moves to see how they turn out.

 

[divs4ever]

well SOME RE will boom , i suspect there will be an uneven performance in RE

 

[Sharkman]

Overnight the AUD got crunched.
Rates did not change, but perceptions of future downward rates increased.
The irrationality of markets is on display.
US rates have had one reduction, Oz remains the same, but our currency gets crunched.
Mick

I'd guess that was more to do with a shift in sentiment towards risk-off than anything to do with AU rates in particular. Other commodity based / risk-on currencies like CAD, NZD got hammered as well over the same timeframe.

 

[divs4ever]

The RBA didn't go early enough, nor did it go hard enough IMO, whereas other central banks eg. US, NZ did. It's too sensitive about causing political s#!tstorms and consequently its softly softly approach is costing us now with a protracted per capita recession. Would've been better to go early, go hard, induce a sharp but short lived recession, then start the recovery earlier I reckon. Though who knows whether that would've turned out better or worse, after all real life isn't like a video game where you can just reload an earlier save and try different moves to see how they turn out.

the RBA is usually late ( or too late )

and if i were running the RBA i would have got the rates up to 5% to create 'wiggle-room' for whenever the next major global downturn happens

but the RBA typical of their ilk has resorted the 'jaw-boning ' and fuzzying the raw data

 

[moXJO]

She and her ilk are worried that the Labor party may lose the next election.

Big projects are being put on hold and their members probably can't gouge like they normally do.

 

[divs4ever]

Big projects are being put on hold and their members probably can't gouge like they normally do.

cynic !! , but you are probably correct

maybe they are eyeing a new money-pot , like another solar farm

 

[moXJO]

cynic !! , but you are probably correct

maybe they are eyeing a new money-pot , like another solar farm

I know a lot of union guys. A lot are currently heading to Melbourne for tunnel work?
I'm not sure if there are a lot of projects around?

Guys are making $4k a week though.

 

[mullokintyre]

We have the perennial round of speculative essays on which direction, if any, the RBA will move rates after tomorrows meeting.
The Big four banks have all reduced their offering of deposit rates, so its no secret then that they see rates going down sooner rather than later.
Of course, they might just be behaving like the bunch of pricks that they are, but with the added pressure of so many players literally demanding a rate cut, its hard not to agree with them.
As soon as the US eased rates, CPI went up again.
I have a sneaky suspicion that the same will happen in OZ.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

We have the perennial round of speculative essays on which direction, if any, the RBA will move rates after tomorrows meeting.
The Big four banks have all reduced their offering of deposit rates, so its no secret then that they see rates going down sooner rather than later.
Of course, they might just be behaving like the bunch of pricks that they are, but with the added pressure of so many players literally demanding a rate cut, its hard not to agree with them.
As soon as the US eased rates, CPI went up again.
I have a sneaky suspicion that the same will happen in OZ.
Mick

i am thinking another hold ( no cut ) but the consensus says a 90% chance of a cut

of course Albo's reelection chances would look better with a cut , but will the RBA hold strong

( and yes i still see underlying inflation running strongly often disguised as 'shrinkflation ' so watch your container sizes/weights )

 

[qldfrog]

i am thinking another hold ( no cut ) but the consensus says a 90% chance of a cut

of course Albo's reelection chances would look better with a cut , but will the RBA hold strong

( and yes i still see underlying inflation running strongly often disguised as 'shrinkflation ' so watch your container sizes/weights )

There is no economic reason for a cut imho, and with a truly independent RBA, that would be the end of it.
But Albo needs a cut before the next election announcement: i wish we could be aware of the exchanges which happened recently...
But we all know the rba is fiercely independent!!!

 

[Smurf1976]

The Big four banks have all reduced their offering of deposit rates, so its no secret then that they see rates going down sooner rather than later.

Looking at term deposit rates with ING:

3 months ago they were offering 4.95% on a 1 year TD.

At present the rates are:

3 months = 4.85%
6 months = 4.75%
9 months = 4.60%
1 year = 4.55%
2 year = 4.20%

So that looks like an expectation of falling rates not rising.