Dump it Here

[Ann]

This statement sums you up perfectly. Sigh...retail traders

Sure, I am a retail trader, at least I trade and not only do I trade I call my shots in public, here...

KISS Trading with Ann

Just for fun, I thought I would try for a portfolio of 10 shares/ETFs built up over three months and held until they break through a vital trendline/resistance and get sold. This will all be done manually with IC charts. I will eyeball the charts, draw my support and resistance trendlines and...

www.aussiestockforums.com

 

[MovingAverage]

What is it with you anyway @Ann ...why are you so hell bent on having a pissing contest over whether charting is superior to systems??? I wonder if it is a case of pictures are for those incapable of dealing with numbers. Anyway, my bladder is empty and I'm done pissing.

 

[Ann]

What is it with you anyway @Ann ...why are you so hell bent on having a pissing contest over whether charting is superior to systems??? I wonder if it is a case of pictures are for those incapable of dealing with numbers. Anyway, my bladder is empty and I'm done pissing.

Crikey lad, calm, deep breaths! Why on earth are you so defensive? I can understand someone being upset thinking their friend was being attacked and coming to the rescue, that's sweet. You seem to be making everything so personal. I love charting and the magic of charts and would love to share my love. However, I can understand if people are blind to the subtleties of a chart and simply find running numbers better. Good, fine! Everyone to their own. If I match charts with @Skate whose to say he won't have an aha moment with something he sees on one of my charts. It may give him a clue as to what to tweak on his chart system, it may not but who knows.

 

[MovingAverage]

It may give him a clue as to what to tweak on his chart system, it may not but who knows.

You just don’t get it do you…he does NOT trade charts. Lord have mercy—someone help me out here. Please someone…anyone…please help. Oh the pain Will Smith…the pain

 

[Ann]

You just don’t get it do you…he does NOT trade charts. Lord have mercy—someone help me out here. Please someone…anyone…please help. Oh the pain Will Smith…the pain

You need to calm yourself MA, you are making yourself look a bit silly, are you perhaps sipping a little wine? What does he do with his charts apart from backtest his system?

 

[Skate]

Open Summary Condensed








Exploration Raw Signals





Backtest Portfolio Signals






Skate.

 

[Skate]

Open Summary Condensed







Exploration Raw Signals




Backtest Portfolio Signals




SYR - Purge Notice






Skate.

 

[Sir Burr]

are you perhaps sipping a little wine?

I bet that "Ignoring" (the troll) button is getting workout haha.

 

[MovingAverage]

Righto Boys and Girls,

I know folks around here like trading weekly systems so thought I'd share a bit of insight that might be of interest. The popular default period for weekly EOD systems is Monday to Friday. After close on Friday you look for your buys and sells and then place those trades for execution at the open on Monday. For various reasons I'm moving away from trade execution at open on Mondays so wanted to understand the impact of executing my weekly orders at the open on other days of the week. Below sim results show the impact of order execution at the open of each day of the week.

Highlights to take note of: executing orders on Monday and Friday have similar performance results, but there is some reasonable variation in performance on Tuesday through to Thursday. Most notably executing orders on a Wednesday deliver over 10% improvement in net profit with not a significant change in other underlying system characteristics (e.g., win rate, DD etc etc).

Now it is very possible that the improvement below in Wednesday's performance is just down to trade sequence so it is very important to do a more detailed MC analysis to get an overall picture of the improvement. As I have said before I think AB's MC analysis is seriously flawed and should not under any circumstances be taken seriously. However, I haven't had the time yet to do proper MC analysis on these simulations (I've been too busy arguing the merits of charting v system based trading with others) but as a preliminary indication I've included a snap shot of AB MC output. You can see that Wednesday does appear to deliver an overall improved MC performance with the MC average being around 10% higher than Monday and while I haven't bothered to look at the standard deviation of those MC results a visual inspection of the MC graph for Wednesday would seem to suggest a tighter SD particularly around the mean. Next step for me will be to do better MC analysis to better understand the true performance and impact of change the day on which to execute trades.

 

[entropy]

Righto Boys and Girls,

I know folks around here like trading weekly systems so thought I'd share a bit of insight that might be of interest. The popular default period for weekly EOD systems is Monday to Friday. After close on Friday you look for your buys and sells and then place those trades for execution at the open on Monday. For various reasons I'm moving away from trade execution at open on Mondays so wanted to understand the impact of executing my weekly orders at the open on other days of the week. Below sim results show the impact of order execution at the open of each day of the week.

Highlights to take note of: executing orders on Monday and Friday have similar performance results, but there is some reasonable variation in performance on Tuesday through to Thursday. Most notably executing orders on a Wednesday deliver over 10% improvement in net profit with not a significant change in other underlying system characteristics (e.g., win rate, DD etc etc).

Now it is very possible that the improvement below in Wednesday's performance is just down to trade sequence so it is very important to do a more detailed MC analysis to get an overall picture of the improvement. As I have said before I think AB's MC analysis is seriously flawed and should not under any circumstances be taken seriously. However, I haven't had the time yet to do proper MC analysis on these simulations (I've been too busy arguing the merits of charting v system based trading with others) but as a preliminary indication I've included a snap shot of AB MC output. You can see that Wednesday does appear to deliver an overall improved MC performance with the MC average being around 10% higher than Monday and while I haven't bothered to look at the standard deviation of those MC results a visual inspection of the MC graph for Wednesday would seem to suggest a tighter SD particularly around the mean. Next step for me will be to do better MC analysis to better understand the true performance and impact of change the day on which to execute trades.

View attachment 135438
View attachment 135439

Interesting work MA! Thank you for posting this research. Does the "Wednesday Effect" appear generally throughought the market, ie big caps, medium caps, small caps, banking sector, mining sector etc?

Perhaps, due to time zones, "something" is happening on Tuesdays in the bigger exchanges overseas?
Is Tuesday a big settlement day perhaps elsewhere?

 

[MovingAverage]

If anyone is interested in playing around with this you can change the start day of your weekly bars by going into your AB DB settings menu, click on intraday settings, and you will see a weekly time compression first day of the week option that you can select.

 

[MovingAverage]

Interesting work MA! Thank you for posting this research. Does the "Wednesday Effect" appear generally throughought the market, ie big caps, medium caps, small caps, banking sector, mining sector etc?

Perhaps, due to time zones, "something" is happening on Tuesdays in the bigger exchanges overseas?
Is Tuesday a big settlement day perhaps elsewhere?

Very good question and not something I've looked at yet--would definitely be worth looking at that. My weekly just trades All Ords so haven't looked deeper than that at this stage

 

[MovingAverage]

I preface the following comments by saying what is important to my trading is consistency of returns--I don't go chasing those occasional massive wins. Lots of small constant winners is my objective to reduce volatility in returns, which isn't for everyone but it is for me.

So below is the annual returns from 2015 through to today. Monday is on the far left followed by Tuesday and so on through to Friday at the far right. Anyway, while based on net profit Wednesday seems good when you scratch beneath the surface it turns out most of this performance was gained from an abnormally profitable year in 2015 in which profit was around 80%. On closer review I probably prefer Thursday because the annual returns are far more consistent and it included 2021 performance that was more inline with prior years.

Anyway, much more analysis is needed at this stage.

 

[Skate]

I know folks around here like trading weekly systems so thought I'd share a bit of insight that might be of interest.

The recent series of posts by @MovingAverage is exactly what this thread is all about. When new ideas are raised it makes us revisit the way we trade. We all fall into the trap of being repetitive with our trading & sometimes we tend to do what others are doing.

A traders edge
The question for me is - "when is an edge useful" when it comes to trading. The edge might be nothing more than the randomness of entries or the confidence to have a go. Randomness could be anything & everything from, the volatility of the markets, external influences, or world events - who knows!

Changing nature of markets
Having an "edge" might be an accepted "catchphrase" when trading is going gangbusters. When trading is performing badly, we readily accept that our strategy has lost its "edge" & we set about improving it.

Trading with an edge
An edge comes in many forms but it's all about consistency. Trend traders jump on confirmed trends & jump off when the trend slows, stops, or reverses. Mechanical System Trading creates consistency with confidence. Without confidence in your trading strategy, you won’t keep pulling the trigger when the going gets tough regardless of how good you think your system is.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

I preface the following comments by saying what is important to my trading is consistency of returns--I don't go chasing those occasional massive wins. Lots of small constant winners is my objective to reduce volatility in returns, which isn't for everyone but it is for me.

So below is the annual returns from 2015 through to today. Monday is on the far left followed by Tuesday and so on through to Friday at the far right. Anyway, while based on net profit Wednesday seems good when you scratch beneath the surface it turns out most of this performance was gained from an abnormally profitable year in 2015 in which profit was around 80%. On closer review I probably prefer Thursday because the annual returns are far more consistent and it included 2021 performance that was more inline with prior years.

Anyway, much more analysis is needed at this stage.

View attachment 135443

For what it is worth,
I did follow a similar check with the systems i was using 2 y or so ago and did NOT find any worthwhile difference.
If you add the inconvenience of inter day trading: limited time to run system and enter trades, at the time i discarded the option.
We also now there is a significant risk off on fridays so that can influence the monday start ..all linked to your type of trading..and so system.
Wo going knto details, i think MA is providing the way to do your own checks ?

 

[Newt]

If anyone is interested in playing around with this you can change the start day of your weekly bars by going into your AB DB settings menu, click on intraday settings, and you will see a weekly time compression first day of the week option that you can select.


View attachment 135440

Yes, many thanks MA - always meant to read up and try and see if any effect. Last few posts most appreciated.

 

[DaveTrade]

Lots of small constant winners is my objective to reduce volatility in returns, which isn't for everyone but it is for me.

Me too.

 

[Skate]

A side note Skate: Re your graphics, the red on black looks really good but the dark blue on black tests my feeble eyes, any chance of lightening the blue a little or is there a way for me to adjust things at my end?

@entropy, I'm assuming you are talking about the "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" Charts I post (Dark Blue on Black). If you are having issues I'm sure others would be having issues as well. I'm prepared to change the colour if it helps your eyes. Select from below.

#1. Original Blue




#2. Aqua




#3. Light Blue




Summary - Chart trading
"The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" chart is easy to understand as the first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next bar at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar. Trading is simply buying & selling on the second bar, the colour denotes whether you buy or sell. Trading couldn't be any simpler than this.

Skate.

 

[entropy]

@entropy, I'm assuming you are talking about the "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" Charts I post (Dark Blue on Black). If you are having issues I'm sure others would be having issues as well. I'm prepared to change the colour if it helps your eyes. Select from below.

#1. Original Blue

View attachment 135472


#2. Aqua

View attachment 135473


#3. Light Blue

View attachment 135474


Summary - Chart trading
"The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" chart is easy to understand as the first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next bar at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar. Trading is simply buying & selling on the second bar, the colour denotes whether you buy or sell. Trading couldn't be any simpler than this.

Skate.

Thank you Skate!
The Aqua and Light Blue were much clearer!

 

[qldfrog]

Thank you Skate!
The Aqua and Light Blue were much clearer!

Aqua is best by far on my smartphone if it helps?