Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

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tech/a said:
Seems T/H has set a new standard for proof of outlandish (or seemingly) claims of success.

But T/H I think if questioned a $500 donation should go to Joe should proof be forth coming.
Sorts out the charf and helps Joe along if the charf proves to be a teak master piece.
Click to expand...

Not sure I know what you are getting at. Does that mean the average punter will have to risk giving up $500 bucks every time they want to question someones claim?
 
Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.

Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.
Click to expand...

This was T/H's post on the Gann thread.
But rather than stuff up this thread I'll start another.

"Trading Claims."
In the General area.
 
I have used EW in the traditional manner in my trading analysis for some time now. Lately I have adopted what is probably an unorthordox method of using EW, in that I scan for and trade only IM wave 3's and ZZ wave C's.
The reason being that they are both Impulses, and more importantly these Impulse patterns follow a prior Impulse and Corrective pattern. This methodology reduces my risk considerably, ( when I get the count right) because as sure as night follows day, an impulse has to follow a prior impulse and corrective pattern. I've probably oversimplified my explanation, but in essence this is how I trade.

Cheers R.
 
I have attached a weekly chart of westfield, tome its a good reasonably basic example of elliot wave 2 correction and wave 4 alternated, wave 3 was 1.618 of wave 1, and wave 5 extened, with the blue line being 1-1, my understanding is that an extended wave 5 means overdone and there is a strong tendancy to retrace at least to the bottom of the wave 1.

Anybody got a different view than me.

thanks
 

Attachments

  • westfield.jpg
    westfield.jpg
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Noticed that both BHP chart and XAO chart have pretty well ben proven correct.
Correction on time as well.
Shorts for now.
 
Kotim, Just looking at your Westfield weekly chart, at first glance it looks like a classic Impulse down. However the Impulse 5 waves down are negated simply because wave 4 cannot enter the price territory of wave 1, which it does.
So what you have displayed is not an impulse. I don't have access to Aussie stock charts, so I cannot analyse more of the chart other than what I see. The other thing to remember when applying Elliott is that your count must commence from a major/significant high/low.

If when looking at what appears to be an impulsive move, it is a good thing to also try to identify the internal count of the move. i.e. a smaller degree.
Therefore, if the move is indeed impulsive the internals should show a five wave in the wave 1 and ditto for wave 3 and wave 5. At least one of the impulsive legs of the larger degree Impulse should show these internal waves, and in so doing, add credence to the accuracy of the count.

So, after all this, I believe that there are three wave moves in all of the five waves, thus rendering this move as either a triple zig zag, or a triple three.

A good spot all the same.
Cheers, R
 
A small project that I thought may provide some interest for those who follow elliott or are interested in the ebb and flows of the stock market.
 

Attachments

  • Waves of Emotion.pdf
    383.6 KB · Views: 102
For those interested in the Elliott Wave principle in it's most simple form the chart below is a good example of what to look out for.

Notice how all the upward moves have been corrective in nature until the last one from late October, which is clearly a five wave impulse.

It is a complex correction from mid March with no signs of a turnaround until recently.
If the analysis is correct we should soon see a retracement to around $3.60-$3.70. If there is support around this area we should see a strong reversal and third wave push up. Always look for confirmation before jumping on.

The stock is DOM and the analysis above is for educational value to those genuinely interested in Elliott Wave only.
 

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  • DOM ASF.png
    DOM ASF.png
    21.1 KB · Views: 13
Porper said:
For those interested in the Elliott Wave principle in it's most simple form the chart below is a good example of what to look out for.

Notice how all the upward moves have been corrective in nature until the last one from late October, which is clearly a five wave impulse.

It is a complex correction from mid March with no signs of a turnaround until recently.
If the analysis is correct we should soon see a retracement to around $3.60-$3.70. If there is support around this area we should see a strong reversal and third wave push up. Always look for confirmation before jumping on.

The stock is DOM and the analysis above is for educational value to those genuinely interested in Elliott Wave only.
Click to expand...

Possible alternative count is the five is wave C of an inverted flat both need a correction from here so will soon play out and we will see
 
I've just started learning Elliott Wave. For me it seems that what helps me most at the moment is identifying triangle patterns. I've read that these mainly appear in Wave 4. Is this way of doing things useful? Or should I be looking for certain other things first?
 
To some of the VSA guys,

I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness.

Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?
 
pavilion103 said:
To some of the VSA guys,

I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness.

Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?
Click to expand...

Pav.
Wave 1 comes from "short covering".
Once the buying subsides, Wave 2 begins with a very strong round of selling(or buying for bearish pattern), however the selling is not enough to bring the stock to the beginning of Wave 1 , so forming a higher low.
When the stops are taken out on wave 3 the institutional buying comes in.
This is an Elliott explanation. You do not see Wave 1 as(a wave 1) initially, as EW is subjective.(i.e. some gray areas).
The VSA guys, maybe tech/a may describe a sequence from VSA that best covers this area. i.e. SOS and SOW.

I was just making this comment to show, that as Elliott explain it one way, then VSA will explain the same event with their reasoning.
However it will be a series of events explained in a slightly different(better) way.

I think most serious traders will be looking forward to how Tech/a is going to integrate all the different bits together on the "sticky" thread he has set up.

One thing I do know is that a "big light" is going to come on for a lot of people, even some of the serious traders. What Tech/a will compile is how the bits fit together, for the best outcome,(KISS) & (profitability), and explain the smart money. I also think the rubbish bins in some offices will get more attention by the time the thread is completed.

Also we should understand that this will be the first forum that someone (with Joe's support) has undertaken to put forward such a thread. (i.e. so it does not get lost in discussion). Moderators at other forums have never been interested.(It has to come from one person only) Pixel may confirm this.

You will also find (IMO) that more guests to this forum will probably stay.
joea
 
pavilion103 said:
To some of the VSA guys,

I haven't spent a whole lot of time applying EW as yet, but intend read up on it and test it's usefulness.

Is one of the best waves to identify Wave 1, by looking for the end of a downtrend, seeing accumulation and a base forming and then a break upwards? Do Wave 1s usually commence from accumulation/distribution areas?
Click to expand...

PAV

My use of EW maybe a little different than most.
Right now in most things it's counting corrective waves so as far as I'm concerned you might as well be trying to complete a Rubics Cube one handed and blind folded.

I personally like to consider Elliot when I see a confluence of stocks and indexes clearly showing counts the same or very similar
Like end of wave 5 s bull or bearish and in particular Wave 3s where markets are at their strongest.

Other than that if it's not as clear as a mirror( the count) then I don't consider it.
The worst thing you can do is force a count to suit your bias.
You should never have a bias.
 
Hi
Some of the post on this forum refer to the length of a particular impulse wave(1,3 or 5)
of the 5 wave Elliott.
Length should not be mistaken for strength.

I have attached a page from "The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook on Elliott"
It shows the 3 combinations of the length of the Impulse waves.
Sorry about the opening of the file as I have a "rocket scientist" tampering with my computer.
joea
 

Attachments

  • Immpulse Waves0001.PDF
    577.2 KB · Views: 14

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