Sean K
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Would love to see an update here.
A re-count I suppose.
Can we do that?
A re-count I suppose.
Can we do that?
Elliott Wave and the XAO
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There's an August 17 update to OWG's blog.
Garpal Gumnut
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Sean K
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Cheers, I'll check it out.
tech placed a couple in the XAO thread developed by AGET which are at odds on the daily and weekly.
tech/a
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Kenna's
They arent at odds.
Daily shows more upside is possible.
Weekly shows this as upside in a potentially bearish correction to come.
Currently.
easier to get a clear pic from the Dow ... or is anyone still arguing that we don't follow that one?
plotting a short-term elliott where wave 1 peaked at end of june, we would now be within wave 5 ... validating Tech/a's conclusion ... upside in a potentially bearish correction to come.
plotting a short-term elliott where wave 1 peaked at end of june, we would now be within wave 5 ... validating Tech/a's conclusion ... upside in a potentially bearish correction to come.
tech/a
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Is there a timeframe for this scenario to play out?? or do you get 150 years of validity or something? At what point does this become...."wrong"? Cant think of the right word.
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thanks ozwave ......... nice to see you ......hope all is well
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Thanks Nun, all is great
Latest EW Market update posted to the XAO thread for those interested in EW --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=484791&postcount=7480
Latest EW Market update posted to the XAO thread for those interested in EW --> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=484791&postcount=7480
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For those who are interested in EW and those who are not - there is a very good report on the EWI website that's about 118 pages in length. It covers plenty of facts and myths, backed up by charts and analysis assembled over the last few years with some new chapters. It also covers some of the facts and myths relating to what the stimulus packages are and aren't.
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/default.aspx?aid=2818
You will need to create a free account to download it
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/default.aspx?aid=2818
You will need to create a free account to download it
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Some additional information that expands on the short term view from the Market update posted recently.
Attachments
ASX according to Elliott
According to Elliot of which I am an avid follower and trader, my wave count has today (or early next week) has excellent potential to be an important high in this bear market correction. Price and time both seem to be coinciding perfectly.
The chart shows my wave count of the entire down move and my belief that we are at the completion point of wave 4 (corrective wave) with wave 5 down due to commence. Wave 5 is the final move to this down move which is likely to conclude before April 2010 and potentially before end of Dec 09'. There is a target on the SPI 200 at 4638 for conclusion of this W4 which I have been eyeing for some time.
Before the down move started bullish sentiment was at 96%, at the low in March it was at 3%. Apparently bullish sentiment is again at around 90%.
It's hard to believe people actually believe the down turn is over and it's happy days again. The fundamental reason that triggers the sell off when it comes is secondary to the ability of the Elliot principal to capture the predictability of crowd behaviour.
I'll be looking to some good buying on completion of W5 and holding long term while the next real major bull market emerges.
This is just another opinion and time will reveal all.
Good trading
According to Elliot of which I am an avid follower and trader, my wave count has today (or early next week) has excellent potential to be an important high in this bear market correction. Price and time both seem to be coinciding perfectly.
The chart shows my wave count of the entire down move and my belief that we are at the completion point of wave 4 (corrective wave) with wave 5 down due to commence. Wave 5 is the final move to this down move which is likely to conclude before April 2010 and potentially before end of Dec 09'. There is a target on the SPI 200 at 4638 for conclusion of this W4 which I have been eyeing for some time.
Before the down move started bullish sentiment was at 96%, at the low in March it was at 3%. Apparently bullish sentiment is again at around 90%.
It's hard to believe people actually believe the down turn is over and it's happy days again. The fundamental reason that triggers the sell off when it comes is secondary to the ability of the Elliot principal to capture the predictability of crowd behaviour.
I'll be looking to some good buying on completion of W5 and holding long term while the next real major bull market emerges.
This is just another opinion and time will reveal all.
Good trading
Sean K
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Re: ASX according to Elliot
Jay, there's already an XAO and EW thread. We'll move this across there shortly. kennas
Jay, there's already an XAO and EW thread. We'll move this across there shortly. kennas
Re: Elliott Wave and the XAO - W4 (suckers rally) complete.
On Friday I posted a wave count showing a zz target to 4638 on the spi 200 which was identified some 2 months ago as being a good completion point for this corrective W4; on Sycom we reached 4625 which is close enough for me on this time frame.
The S&P500 is also in the same position with wave c of the zz projecting 61.8% of wave A on Friday. Time also seems spot on, I’m no Gann expert but we’re 6 months from the March low or 180 degrees (50%). The next wave 5 down could expect to be complete in March 2010.
If you were a seller above 4600 with a stop some 50 points higher you are in a good position with an excellent risk / reward trade. If you’re not short yet the best move now is to wait until we break strong support around 4500 level. Give plenty of room for noise, the commercials will do their best and take every opportunity to continually shake out weak shorts. The likely move today is a drop from open as the commercials trap all the longs up high. Trading below 4500 is the first confirmation the high is in. The real test will come when / if we reach the strong support around the 4000 mark. A break here is the real confirmation and when all the tech guys will start going short (better late than never).
As most of us know wave 4 is otherwise known as a suckers rally, where people are quick to jump back in the market with the fear of missing the next major bull market (or up move) or chasing losses just like R8 on race day. Ironically it’s these same people (90 odd percent of all participants in this instance) that will soon become the sellers and drive the last capitulation leg down (wave 5). The commercials without a doubt have been selling onto the height of this optimism after being the buyers that started it.
Wave 5 has the potential to go as low as 2600 on the spi, and on the S&P 500 as low as 300. The S&P has a massive double top on the largest time frame and all the technical traders (which I used to be) will know that the most common action proceeding a double top is for price to return to where the up move first started. (coincidentally around 300 level). In Elliot price needs to at least retrace 70% (my experience is 61.8%) of w4 before being deemed a failure but looking at the overall wave structure it’s more likely to extend beyond the March lows.
Bear market bottoms on this time frame (1 in 100 yr event) can only be found when people have been so badly burnt that they just give up, they dare not step back into the market. Sentiment becomes balanced, neither bullish or bearish. (sentiment = 93% Bullish before the drop commenced / 97% Bearish in March 09 / nearly 90% bullish last week).
The good news is that when W5 is complete the real opportunity presents itself to start buying and place yourself well for the next “real” bull market when it emerges. We have undoubtedly tough times ahead and the full economic and financial fall out won’t take grip until after the markets bottom. Knowledge can place you in good stead to deal with this.
Happy trading
On Friday I posted a wave count showing a zz target to 4638 on the spi 200 which was identified some 2 months ago as being a good completion point for this corrective W4; on Sycom we reached 4625 which is close enough for me on this time frame.
The S&P500 is also in the same position with wave c of the zz projecting 61.8% of wave A on Friday. Time also seems spot on, I’m no Gann expert but we’re 6 months from the March low or 180 degrees (50%). The next wave 5 down could expect to be complete in March 2010.
If you were a seller above 4600 with a stop some 50 points higher you are in a good position with an excellent risk / reward trade. If you’re not short yet the best move now is to wait until we break strong support around 4500 level. Give plenty of room for noise, the commercials will do their best and take every opportunity to continually shake out weak shorts. The likely move today is a drop from open as the commercials trap all the longs up high. Trading below 4500 is the first confirmation the high is in. The real test will come when / if we reach the strong support around the 4000 mark. A break here is the real confirmation and when all the tech guys will start going short (better late than never).
As most of us know wave 4 is otherwise known as a suckers rally, where people are quick to jump back in the market with the fear of missing the next major bull market (or up move) or chasing losses just like R8 on race day. Ironically it’s these same people (90 odd percent of all participants in this instance) that will soon become the sellers and drive the last capitulation leg down (wave 5). The commercials without a doubt have been selling onto the height of this optimism after being the buyers that started it.
Wave 5 has the potential to go as low as 2600 on the spi, and on the S&P 500 as low as 300. The S&P has a massive double top on the largest time frame and all the technical traders (which I used to be) will know that the most common action proceeding a double top is for price to return to where the up move first started. (coincidentally around 300 level). In Elliot price needs to at least retrace 70% (my experience is 61.8%) of w4 before being deemed a failure but looking at the overall wave structure it’s more likely to extend beyond the March lows.
Bear market bottoms on this time frame (1 in 100 yr event) can only be found when people have been so badly burnt that they just give up, they dare not step back into the market. Sentiment becomes balanced, neither bullish or bearish. (sentiment = 93% Bullish before the drop commenced / 97% Bearish in March 09 / nearly 90% bullish last week).
The good news is that when W5 is complete the real opportunity presents itself to start buying and place yourself well for the next “real” bull market when it emerges. We have undoubtedly tough times ahead and the full economic and financial fall out won’t take grip until after the markets bottom. Knowledge can place you in good stead to deal with this.
Happy trading
Update
On the spi200 price action has been rammed up this morning. This is a typical play by the commercials to achieve a high price near contract end. This is more often a good quick profitable trade if you can pick it. I call it legalised theft.
As I type this price is near it's highs (at 4643) and has irronically come within 5points of the large zig zag target at 4638 on extremely high volume and a tripple zz since open on 1 min data. This is a critical point for my large wave count and another good sell if you're game enough. All the weak shorts have now been forced to cover. Don't be surprised to see price action to now start falling away for the rest of the day with the possibility of taking out the day lows near the close leaving an excellent reversal.
If price goes much higher than the current high at 4643 and the larger Elliot count I have been discussing becomes negated, for now nothing has changed and a good entry with low risk can been made.
Good Trading
On the spi200 price action has been rammed up this morning. This is a typical play by the commercials to achieve a high price near contract end. This is more often a good quick profitable trade if you can pick it. I call it legalised theft.
As I type this price is near it's highs (at 4643) and has irronically come within 5points of the large zig zag target at 4638 on extremely high volume and a tripple zz since open on 1 min data. This is a critical point for my large wave count and another good sell if you're game enough. All the weak shorts have now been forced to cover. Don't be surprised to see price action to now start falling away for the rest of the day with the possibility of taking out the day lows near the close leaving an excellent reversal.
If price goes much higher than the current high at 4643 and the larger Elliot count I have been discussing becomes negated, for now nothing has changed and a good entry with low risk can been made.
Good Trading
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EW skeptics will not be interested in this so just move on...
EWI is having another FreeWeek starting noon Wednesday, Sept. 16 (USA time) and ending noon Wednesday, Sept. 23. This FreeWeek throws open the doors to EWI's Asian-Pacific and European Short Term Updates.
Could be interesting to see what they have to say about our XAO.
EWI is having another FreeWeek starting noon Wednesday, Sept. 16 (USA time) and ending noon Wednesday, Sept. 23. This FreeWeek throws open the doors to EWI's Asian-Pacific and European Short Term Updates.
Could be interesting to see what they have to say about our XAO.
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