Elliott Wave and the XAO

[>Apocalypto<]

No one else has posted in this thread for a week, yet my post draws you out of the closet.

I'd like to discuss EW rationally, but as I said in the XAO thread, asking questions about the analysis is like lighting a stick of dynamite.

The question is, 'is there an alternate count to the March lows being a W3. Or could it be an absolute low 5?'

Do you have anything to add on the analysis?

read the entire page Kennas then ask yourself I made that post at u!!!!!

I like to read the analysis without all the doubters coming in with cheap shots.. that's what a forum is about learning... if I was new to EW and I read some of the comments I would not feel comfortable posting. Is that how you want new members to possibly feel?

ok exchange over u think about it....

 

[tech/a]

I can see where Kenna's is coming from.

I also understand Oz Wave and Porper.

Most are aware that I love simplicity even when complexity seems the best solution.
Elliott particularly in corrective moves can appear very complex.
The goal posts are seemingly constantly moving.
Counts changing weekly if not daily.

Its no different to any other analysis.
If any other analysis indicates something is likely to happen and it fails to materialise then pretty soon something else will appear technically in the same chart to suggest another likely out come.

So whats Elliott telling us now.
This move is topping out.
This like all analysis is open to Interpretation/Confirmation and or Change.

So I'm looking very cautiously at any long trades and seriously at short trade setups.
NWS was pointed out to me by one poster here as a short prospect and I like it!

click to expand XAO

 

[Chris45]

Glad to see you posting again tech/a. I, for one, value your input.

 

[seasprite]

So I'm looking very cautiously at any long trades and seriously at short trade setups.

yes,yes, yes totally agree.

So whats Elliott telling us now.
This move is topping out.
This like all analysis is open to Interpretation/Confirmation and or Change.

This whole rally is fundamentally based on absolute rubbish , which suits me just fine. How my prediction fits into EW is anyones guess . XAO up to 4150 then pullback starting around Thursday or Friday with US Bonds as the negative catalyst.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

XAO - Expanding Triangle for Wave (4)

Under the Expanded Triangle scenario, Wave C has continued to new short term highs but has provided more clues to it’s structure – namely 4 small waves up ‘i-iv’ have completed (wave iv may still have one more leg to complete). The wave ‘b’ circle has unfolded as a triangle, but an additional triangle unfolded within this correction to add complexity in calculating it's ending point.

Five waves up on the last leg of wave C should complete very shortly and provide a turning point just above the 4000 mark (to around 4070). Wave ‘iv’ may not yet be complete, therefore some minor downside could unfold before heading higher to complete 5 waves up.

It should be noted that wave 4’s tend to retrace 38.2% of wave 3’s – this would put a completed wave 4 retracement at around the 4300 mark on the XAO. Therefore a drop into wave D down (to a new low) and then back up into wave E at around 4300 would be a reasonable estimation for a completed expanded triangle scenario. Wave (5) down would then commence.

 

[Joules MM1]

XAO - Expanding Triangle for Wave (4)

Under the Expanded Triangle scenario, Wave C has continued to new short term highs but has provided more clues to it’s structure – namely 4 small waves up ‘i-iv’ have completed (wave iv may still have one more leg to complete). The wave ‘b’ circle has unfolded as a triangle, but an additional triangle unfolded within this correction to add complexity in calculating it's ending point.

Five waves up on the last leg of wave C should complete very shortly and provide a turning point just above the 4000 mark (to around 4070). Wave ‘iv’ may not yet be complete, therefore some minor downside could unfold before heading higher to complete 5 waves up.

It should be noted that wave 4’s tend to retrace 38.2% of wave 3’s – this would put a completed wave 4 retracement at around the 4300 mark on the XAO. Therefore a drop into wave D down (to a new low) and then back up into wave E at around 4300 would be a reasonable estimation for a completed expanded triangle scenario. Wave (5) down would then commence.

i do miss the occassional biffo about ralph nelsons fine work......to wit;

expanded wedges do not start at the beginning of wave a, they start at the end of wave a.... also you should look for a squaring reversal where the inverse measure of wave c is likely 1.618 or 2.618 of wave a and in which case, experience has shown me, that this is unlikely to unfold as an expanded fourth wave which still requires waves d and e to qualify a true expansion.....at the moment you are seeing a simple variation of a flat zigzag

also, expanded triangles form in series of threes including wave c but and where wave e is (commonly) a fib measure of wave c...... wave a volume is commonly heavier than wave c and wave b is commonly lighter than either......
wave a and b are in threes and wave c should look the same to qualify as part of an expanded fourth (fairly mute debate without waves d and e)
stuff to mull over.....otherwise your chart looks good .....commend you await wait wave d to terminate, if that is what we are, indeed, seeing..

 

[Porper]

experience has shown me, that this is unlikely to unfold as an expanded fourth wave which still requires waves d and e to qualify a true expansion.....at the moment you are seeing a simple variation of a flat zigzag

I agree you can't have a three wave a.b.c move terminating at the larger degree wave-C. To be valid waves d & e need to complete which would take price much higher.

 

[Joules MM1]

I agree you can't have a three wave a.b.c move terminating at the larger degree wave-C. To be valid waves d & e need to complete which would take price much higher.

under the auspice of absolute measure wave e does not always travel to a higher price or always move above wave d .....and the underlying pressure (in this case, overwhelming sellers) may shorten the 'normal' length of the e wave...often, wave e is a hook and does over shoot the height of the expanded wedge, as the technician has drawn, which gives a false impression that the ill-concieved bull move is resumed.....this is commonly referred to as a throw-over....more like a hook

i think this to be important; allow the waves to speak in full language, by that, i mean, allow all the opaerative waves to speak before telling the pattern your own ideas.....all waves are operating at all times and while some may be dominant the key is, as it is in all trading instances, to allow overwhelming evidence to display first and then place the opine lables .....as one of the beauties of elliott is "if this is true" then the probabilities of "this not being true" are given greater credence.....

that is, in my humble opine

(as an aside, this op ed does not refer that the xjo or xao being in a bounce or in a bull phase)

 

[Porper]

under the auspice of absolute measure wave e does not always travel to a higher price or always move above wave d .....and the underlying pressure (in this case, overwhelming sellers) may shorten the 'normal' length of the e wave...often, wave e is a hook and does over shoot the height of the expanded wedge, as the technician has drawn, which gives a false impression that the ill-concieved bull move is resumed.....this is commonly referred to as a throw-over....more like a hook

True, but in my short experience, it is very difficult to predict whether wave e will be a "throw over" or truncated. Other indicators used in conjunction along with volume attributes may help but as I understand it neither possibility has a higher probability of coming to fruition.

Any direction on this aspect of E.Wave is welcomed.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

'Recession fears cripple stocks'

That was the headline on CNN Money this morning, I thought we were already in a recession/depression/major correction/or something - when you can't pin the market action on an event - make up a headline, a usual Media tactic.

Another way to interpret the recent down leg is that wave D of an expanding triangle is now underway on the XAO.

The 4070 mark was hit and exceeded last week topping at 4079 or almost spot on 61.8% of the previous 'a' circle leg. The 4079 level should not be broken in the expanding triangle scenario - if it is, then something much more complex is unfolding. The wave structure from the recent top is moving in 5 waves down, so there is supporting evidence that more downside is to follow. This supports the probability that wave 'D' down is underway.

A rough short term wave structure is provided that suggests a retracement is needed soon before wave (iii) takes hold for more aggressive downside (should this short term wave structure unfold, then technically a head and shoulders pattern would unfold).

 

[Sean K]

OWG, I have asked this question in a couple of places, but I've been deflected because I tend to ask too many questions.

This is your thread.

Is there an alternate count?'

Could the March low be THE low?

If not, OK.

Just a yes, no, or maybe will do.

 

[beamstas]

Of course it could Kennas.

The market will do what the market will do, not what EW says it will do.

 

[Sean K]

Of course it could Kennas.

The market will do what the market will do, not what EW says it will do.

I thought EW represented the psychology of the market. 12345, ABC, abcxabc, etc, etc, with a abcd and a xyz in there as well...

I remember 'prove - disprove' somewhere too, so does that mean anything is up for grabs?

I thought you believed EW but now the 'market will do what do what the market will do', despite any theory?



I LOVE the idea of some overall controlling trend in market/life dynamics, and I WANT to see it here.


So, in line with the EW presented here over the past few years there are probably some alternate counts.

For discussion, not crucifixion.

 

[beamstas]

I know what you are saying, Kennas.
EW can be proved OR disproved

BUT EW can't stop itself being disproved by not allowing the market to disprove it.

If the market is going to make a new low, then it's going to make one, regardless of any EW count or any other technical analysis.

I'm not saying Eliott Wave isn't useful, it just isn't going to stop the market making a new low regardless of any counts.

 

[White_Knight]

I'm not saying Eliott Wave isn't useful,

I am.

And what's this feelgood factor that you cant defame certain "strategies" because you might upset newbies?

It's a hard game, and if you cant handle criticism of the way you call the market, i dont see how you can handle losing money.

Although i guess all this is pretty much irrelevant - whatever the market does it will be explained 5 years down the track as a Wave Formation z5c3a4B with a twist manifesting itself in a "larger pattern".

 

[beamstas]

I am.

And what's this feelgood factor that you cant defame certain "strategies" because you might upset newbies?

It's a hard game, and if you cant handle criticism of the way you call the market, i dont see how you can handle losing money.

Although i guess all this is pretty much irrelevant - whatever the market does it will be explained 5 years down the track as a Wave Formation z5c3a4B with a twist manifesting itself in a "larger pattern".

Do you use technical analysis?

 

[White_Knight]

Yes - and although i am a relative newbie there's a lot to be said for the use of continuous indicators, trend analysis etc - you can actually see it working in practice which is more than i can say for EW, which is totally ethereal in nature.

I dont use astroanalysis either (no offence anyone - that's a whole other ballgame).

 

[beamstas]

Yes - and although i am a relative newbie there's a lot to be said for the use of continuous indicators, trend analysis etc - you can actually see it working in practice which is more than i can say for EW, which is totally ethereal in nature.

I dont use astroanalysis either (no offence anyone - that's a whole other ballgame).

All technical analysis is weakened by opinion and subject to bias.

You call yourself a newbie, but then don't want to upset other newbies with your superior opinion?

 

[tech/a]

dont know what all the fuss is about.
Ive been posting here and on the XAO thread.
Elliott has and is performing as expected as it has since the high in July 2007.
All my charts are posted on these threads.

Trouble I see is that
(1) People don't understand the dynamic nature of E/W.
(2) people expect Elliott to have a finite analysis--it doesn't.
(3) People don't understand the simple rules of Elliott.
(4) People don't understand how to trade with Elliott.

Just simplify it.
Look at it in the big picture.

Kennas yes the low of lows could be in.
Kennas No the Low of lows "may not be in"
There are alternate counts and as the market develops some counts will play out and other alternatives will develop.

We can argue about correct wave counts as much as the Professional economists argue about the ACTUAL state of the world economies.
I know which analysis has been most accurate!

CLICK TO EXPAND

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Agreed on Tech's 4 points. Except that under EW there is a definitive set of corrective patterns and impulse patterns, which provides a useful guide to isolate the most likely pattern unfolding. It's up to the analyst to make sense of the waves (provided an understanding of EW is not an obstacle).

Yes, alternative counts are a must, esp in corrections, as they are hard to define until a substantial amount of the pattern has unfolded. Is a low in? possible, but not ranked highly as there are more compelling counts at hand. One alternative, is a push to 4300 in the short term and invalidating the corrective expanding triangle, and introducing a expanded flat correction instead. Longer term I struggle to see that a low is in place considering the XMJ has seen 5 waves down from the high - we need to see some more downside yet.