Elliott Wave and the XAO

[Jay70]

We have differing count starting in W3 and you have 5 completed. The completion of W3 and 5 seem to quick for mine. W4's are normally longer in time than 2. Also note the correlation in retracements so far with W2 and 4. W4 in my count certainly has potential to go further, this just seems the best place in price and time. It's all interesting but time will reveal all.

See attachment - click to enlarge

Attachment

 

[Chris45]

Some simple observations on the XJO, just to add to the fun and confusion:

W1 (3500.7) = 379.9 pts
W3 (4079.4) = 623.2 pts ~ 1.62*W1
W4 (3709.2) = 370.2 pts ~ 0.62*W3 (and ~ W1)
W5 target: 3709.2 + 2.618*W1 = 4704
The 1.000 level (4089) and 1.618 level (4324) seemed to be resistance. 4089 ~ W3 high. 4323 ~ Nov high.

Alternatively:
WA (4079.4) = 958.6 pts
WB (3709.2) = 370.2 pts ~ 0.38*WA
WC target: 3709.2 + 958.6 = 4668

Anticipated resistance at 4670 - 4700 maybe?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Some simple observations on the XJO, just to add to the fun and confusion:

W1 (3500.7) = 379.9 pts
W3 (4079.4) = 623.2 pts ~ 1.62*W1
W4 (3709.2) = 370.2 pts ~ 0.62*W3 (and ~ W1)
W5 target: 3709.2 + 2.618*W1 = 4704
The 1.000 level (4089) and 1.618 level (4324) seemed to be resistance. 4089 ~ W3 high. 4323 ~ Nov high.

Alternatively:
WA (4079.4) = 958.6 pts
WB (3709.2) = 370.2 pts ~ 0.38*WA
WC target: 3709.2 + 958.6 = 4668

Anticipated resistance at 4670 - 4700 maybe?

Shouldn't be too far off now. The final push upwards started on the 7th and is maybe about 1/3rd complete, so there's probably a couple more weeks left in it.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

EW skeptics will not be interested in this so just move on...

EWI is having another FreeWeek starting noon Wednesday, Sept. 16 (USA time) and ending noon Wednesday, Sept. 23. This FreeWeek throws open the doors to EWI's Asian-Pacific and European Short Term Updates.

Could be interesting to see what they have to say about our XAO.

Just point them to the EW debate thread, it's good for a laugh

Thanks for the heads up on EWI free week

 

[Chris45]

Just point them to the EW debate thread, it's good for a laugh

Better entertainment than anything TV has to offer.

Thanks for the heads up on EWI free week

Cheers OWG. I'm just wondering when all of these irrational bulls are going to realize that the world is stuffed.

The environment is stuffed, the economy is stuffed, we’re all stuffed!!!

Then the mother of all fifth waves or C waves will commence and lead to the total collapse of our financial house of cards.

Gee, I think I'm starting to sound a bit bearish. Must have been listening too much to Marc Faber.

 

[professor_frink]

feel free to debate the merits of EW in the EW debate tread.

It's not appropriate to turn every single thread on ASF that mentions Elliot wave into a debate/argument.

Any further posts along these lines in this thread(or in any other thread other than the EW debate thread) will be deleted and infractions issued.

 

[Bobby]

feel free to debate the merits of EW in the EW debate tread.

It's not appropriate to turn every single thread on ASF that mentions Elliot wave into a debate/argument.

Any further posts along these lines in this thread(or in any other thread other than the EW debate thread) will be deleted and infractions issued.

Professor , if this is off your own back , your walking a very fine line , the strength of Aussie Stock Forums is free rebate on any thread within the established set rules !
.:frown:

 

[professor_frink]

Professor , if this is off your own back , your walking a very fine line , the strength of Aussie Stock Forums is free rebate on any thread within the established set rules !
.:frown:

rubbish.

If you want to debate the merits of EW, do it in the appropriate thread.

No further debate on this one. I'm quite sure Joe will be fine with the stand I'm taking here. Feel free to take it up with him if you don't like the way I'm going though

 

[Joe Blow]

Professor , if this is off your own back , your walking a very fine line , the strength of Aussie Stock Forums is free rebate on any thread within the established set rules !
.:frown:

Bobby,

I agree with Professor Frink.

We already have a thread for debating the validity of EW. If we let every thread on EW get sidetracked with debates over its validity then we'll never have an EW thread that will be anything other than one long argument.

I don't think that's very productive.

Anyone interested in debating the validity of EW can do so here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17069

 

[nunthewiser]

so if something is posted in one of the 300 EW threads here that sounds like utter bollocks or more hindsight greatness which has no validility we have to take it to another thread to point it out ?

 

[professor_frink]

so if something is posted in one of the 300 EW threads here that sounds like utter bollocks or more hindsight greatness which has no validility we have to take it to another thread to point it out ?

yes.

 

[Joe Blow]

so if something is posted in one of the 300 EW threads here that sounds like utter bollocks or more hindsight greatness which has no validility we have to take it to another thread to point it out ?

Nun, I can't see the point in disrupting every thread.

I think EW practitioners should be able to carry on a reasonable discussion with other EW practioners without being constantly told that their method is bollocks.

If you wish to criticise something someone has said in an EW thread then repost it in the EW debate thread, but let's not destory every EW thread. As I said, I don't see the point.

I like threads that stay on topic. It means they might actually be useful to someone else one day. Lets face it, the argument over the validity or otherwise of EW will never be settled, so I think we should keep it to the one thread.

 

[nunthewiser]

fair enough Joe

no worries

 

[OzWaveGuy]

so if something is posted in one of the 300 EW threads here that sounds like utter bollocks or more hindsight greatness which has no validility we have to take it to another thread to point it out ?

To be brutally honest, you've inserted your repetitive arguments into everyone one of those 300 threads. You've made your thoughts clear on EW, so now let the folks who enjoy the analysis get something from it.

If you want to ask rational questions, search the 300 threads for an answer, if you can't find it feel free or PM the author or post a sensible question.

 

[Bobby]

Bobby,

I agree with Professor Frink.

We already have a thread for debating the validity of EW. If we let every thread on EW get sidetracked with debates over its validity then we'll never have an EW thread that will be anything other than one long argument.

I don't think that's very productive.

]

Joe , suggest then that certain threads have a ( don't post negative opinion ~ status ) , direction " prescient be so then

 

[Jay70]

Why do those not interested in Elliot Wave bother to read this thread or at least, bother to reply unless with a constructive question. I was once only technical orientated trader who also couldn't see the benefit of Elliot or how to trade it for profit.

Back to the market. Chris, I guess it's fair to say we are in agreement with looking for completion of this C wave........there seem to be quite a few possible targets very close. If the take off point for C is used on SPI200 we get 4665 on day data only. Either way on this large time frame I still have no reason but to stick with exiting all longs and setting up short.

I have 3 coninciding reasons to be looking for a top up here;
1. C wave looking for completion

2. In time Gann is still in the window of seasonal change

3. Yesterdays action was typical of a market looking for a high.

4. Price now is expected to be maintained into contract close so the fund managers etc. get their bonuses. (nothing has changed)

5. Bullish sentiment is extremely high again.

I'm still set short and leaving plenty of room for noise. Minimum down side target / reward is over 400 hundred points. (With potential for plenty more)

 

[Chris45]

Any further posts along these lines in this thread(or in any other thread other than the EW debate thread) will be deleted and infractions issued.

It was a tongue-in-cheek comment guys ... or did I miss something while I was away having dinner?

 

[Chris45]

5. Bullish sentiment is extremely high again.

Thanks Jay. Must confess that after the recent market action I'm getting a very strong urge to invest again. I usually get these thoughts just before a major top (eg Jan-94).

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Thanks Jay. Must confess that after the recent market action I'm getting a very strong urge to invest again. I usually get these thoughts just before a major top (eg Jan-94).

Optimism moving to extreme levels perhaps? I've posted this https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=488966&postcount=731 in the general EW thread that relates to Chris's post.

 

[Awesomandy]

Thanks Jay. Must confess that after the recent market action I'm getting a very strong urge to invest again. I usually get these thoughts just before a major top (eg Jan-94).

Isn't that pretty much textbook wave 5 or wave C psychology (depending on the actual cycle)?