Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Elliott Wave and the XAO

One way of having a go at it, blue or red bars in a decision area are usually a heads up.
Seems a big ask though doesn't it ?

Just my :2twocents

(click to enlarge)
 

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If we take out that recent top instead then the bear market is over, have a look at 02/03 bottom and the same sort of pattern action occured, not exactly the same but very similar.

anyway time will tell
 
I've listed some reasons to support the possibility of 11-May being wave 4 of 5.

1. Socialist politicians optimistically forecasting an early end to the recession - "green shoots" etc.
2. Krudd & Co's "Robin Hood" budget just released yeilding massive deficit.
3. Old adage: "Sell in May and go away".
4. Weekly stochastic in sell territory above 75 (previous occasion was May-08).
5. Daily stochastic also in sell territory above 75.
6. 11-May approx 38% retracement of wave 3 of 5.
7. Perfect hit on AGET's MOB (time and price).
8. 11-May is 62 days from 10-March Low (Mar08 Low to May08 High = 63 days).
9. 124 days T-T ~= 127 days previous T-T (see Sails' thread).
10. SPI has now made a significant penetration of the uptrend line from 10 March.

The evidence now seems to be pointing to a wave 5 of 5 decline possibly to at least 2950 in early July. Time will tell of course but what do others think?
 
XAO - Expanding Triangle for Wave (4)

Wave ‘D’ down is underway.

Firstly, there haven’t been many recent expanding triangle scenarios on the XAO, so information of the internal relationships isn’t readily available. Hence, applying the standard triangle guidelines, one can derive some probabilities and targets for the unfolding D wave.

  1. Triangle legs moving in the same direction can roughly have a 61.8% relationship in price. Therefore this would place the ‘D’ wave at around 2860 where there is significant long term support in this area (there is a 65% price relationship between waves A and C, very close to the 61.8% fib ratio)
  2. In the upwards legs (waves A, C), the ‘b’ circle corrections have been quite complex versus the first down leg (wave B). Hence, the expected correction in wave ‘D’ down may be simple as well (eg a flat or zig-zag) and have a fib relationship of time to the ‘b’ circle in wave ‘B’.
  3. Time wise, the Expanding Triangle waves A and C relate by 70%, apply this to wave B and D, Wave D may complete in around 60 days
  4. The first leg of wave ‘D’ – wave ‘a’ circle down will meet reasonable support at 3500. So this would be a probable target for this wave until more sub-divisions unfold on this initial leg down.
 

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I didn't realise there was a W-D as well.

:confused:

I've got to buy one of these books.

I only just got my head around the wxy....

:eek:
 
XAO - Expanding Triangle Scenario for Wave (4)

There is building evidence that the XAO could break down from the current levels by the fact that a series of 2nd waves could be considered complete. So far, the downwards moves have been unfolding in 5 waves - indicating further downside is required.

A break below the end of wave 'i' would suggestive of the next smaller legs down commencing. Alternatively further corrective moves slightly higher could still unfold before the downside resumes.
 

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XAO - Expanding Triangle, Wave D

The update from today's action is fairly straightforward - from a short term standpoint, there is solid probability for further upside tomorrow to complete 5 small waves up - which would complete a Flat correction for wave (ii)
 

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XAO - Expanding Triangle Scenario for Wave (4)

The XAO will need to turn down from the current levels in order to maintain the declining wave D for the Expanding Triangle scenario in wave (4).

The correction that commenced in mid-May has turned out to be a double flat correction - which could signify the major 'b' wave in this leg down. If so, then the following action downwards may be quite aggressive.
 

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OWG you have been calling for the March lows to be tested since we left them some 800 points and more than 2 months ago.

I guess if nothing else your persistence is entertaining.
 
OWG you have been calling for the March lows to be tested since we left them some 800 points and more than 2 months ago.

I guess if nothing else your persistence is entertaining.

That is the beauty of EW
Just keep on re'paintin till you are right! :D:D:D
 
OWG you have been calling for the March lows to be tested since we left them some 800 points and more than 2 months ago.

I guess if nothing else your persistence is entertaining.


personally agree on his last couple of charts .... my top of rally called on day of top of rally in another thread still stands and will have to re-evaluate my strategy if it gets broken .................... in the meantime skim scalp trim snipe dump scoop nab some pizzas and just basically play any miniscule channel and rallys as i see it

we going to crashnburn and there aint nothing you can do about it :D

edit . sorry i worded it wrong ....... my overall meaning is that i think we heading down out of this channel when it decides to break a proper ....... where i say i agree with his charts i kind of mean i agree on percieved directions

geez now im just rambling

as you were
 
XAO - Expanding Triangle Scenario for Wave (4)

The XAO will need to turn down from the current levels in order to maintain the declining wave D for the Expanding Triangle scenario in wave (4).

The correction that commenced in mid-May has turned out to be a double flat correction - which could signify the major 'b' wave in this leg down. If so, then the following action downwards may be quite aggressive.
Since the b in a circle has run up past C, does this invalidate the count, or does it all have to be rejigged?

ie, can you rename this next peak as a b and a C and it's all cool?
 
Since the b in a circle has run up past C, does this invalidate the count, or does it all have to be rejigged?

ie, can you rename this next peak as a b and a C and it's all cool?


Kennas, I answered this yesterday in the XAO thread. The a.b.c count is still on the cards as either a running flat pattern or an expanded flat,but not the alternate wave-i, and ii. Wave ii cannot retrace above the wave i which it has.

One more good push up and it will be put to bed in my view.

More important are the US markets and they have further room to rise while keeping the bearish count in place.Irrespective of what Aus does, if the US head lower, so will we.
 
Kennas, I answered this yesterday in the XAO thread. .
Another question. If this running flat is invalidated, and we did in fact see the bottom at 3050 ish in March, is it going to be possible to turn all the numbers around prior to that to make that a 5, and we are now in a new impulse going overall higher? Or do we simply have to make another low?
 
cant u all just let these guys have a thread with out crap posted at them for any analysis they put up???

I have never seen Oz wave or Porper come in and attack scalping the spi.....

come on guys let them enjoy the type of trading they find best suited to themselves...

I am not into EW at all but I can appreciate it.

No offense but a select few of you are destroying the diversity of ASF in my opinion.
 
cant u all just let these guys have a thread with out crap posted at them for any analysis they put up???

I have never seen Oz wave or Porper come in and attack scalping the spi.....

come on guys let them enjoy the type of trading they find best suited to themselves...

I am not into EW at all but I can appreciate it.

No offense but a select few of you are destroying the diversity of ASF in my opinion.
Huh? This is obviously a comment regarding my question about the EW analysis of the XAO being presented. You seriously saying I can't ask a question about the analysis? How is that destroying the thread? Double geesh!!
 
Huh? This is obviously a comment regarding my question about the EW analysis of the XAO being presented. You seriously saying I can't ask a question about the analysis? How is that destroying the thread? Double geesh!!

why does every thing have to be about u Kennas???

I said a few people if I thought it was you kennas I would have said, kennas you're ruining this thread.

tripple geesh
 
why does every thing have to be about u Kennas???
No one else has posted in this thread for a week, yet my post draws you out of the closet.

I'd like to discuss EW rationally, but as I said in the XAO thread, asking questions about the analysis is like lighting a stick of dynamite.

The question is, 'is there an alternate count to the March lows being a W3. Or could it be an absolute low 5?'

Do you have anything to add on the analysis?
 
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