Elliott Wave and the XAO

[tech/a]

I knew that!

(5) Except that under EW there is a definitive set of corrective patterns and impulse patterns, which provides a useful guide to isolate the most likely pattern unfolding

 

[MR.]

Is there an alternate count?'

Could the March low be THE low?

If not, OK.

Just a yes, no, or maybe will do.

Kennas yes the low of lows could be in.
Kennas No the Low of lows "may not be in"
There are alternate counts and as the market develops some counts will play out and other alternatives will develop.

Glad we "finally" got that all sorted out!

 

[seasprite]

One alternative, is a push to 4300 in the short term

1973 & 2002 saw a W correction however prior to the second V on both ocassions we seen Jake the peg's middle leg . If this is the case assuming another W may eventuate you could well be right. Is Wall St too big to fail to call a lower low?????

 

[tech/a]

Glad we "finally" got that all sorted out!

Yeh we can talk or trade.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I take all your wise comments on counts etc., but sometimes you just have to trade and watch yer stops, too much interpretation and you end up like a fundamentalist chasing a future which may never arrive.

gg

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The current wave count suggests that the XAO will soon break thru support and head further south to lower levels.

 

[Chris45]

The current wave count suggests that the XAO will soon break thru support and head further south to lower levels.

And this is supported by the fact that, since the 12-June top, the SPI has been trading at a significant discount to the XJO (today 35 pts). So, the futures boyz are bearish, anyone for roast beef?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The current wave count suggests that the XAO will soon break thru support and head further south to lower levels.

Agree OWG.

I refer to previous posts on the XAO Analysis thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=455967&postcount=6618

gg

 

[skyQuake]

And this is supported by the fact that, since the 12-June top, the SPI has been trading at a significant discount to the XJO (today 35 pts). So, the futures boyz are bearish, anyone for roast beef?

Think its more to do with upcoming divvies and adjustments made from the recent spare of corporate actions than any real bearishness.
It does seem a bit low though, cue arb bots.

 

[Boggo]

Could this be a possibility, 2700 area for the XJO Wave 5 on a weekly chart ??

Should see 5 waves on current leg to there, we may have be in 3 of 5 ??

Any opinions ?

(click to enlarge)

 

[Chris45]

Could this be a possibility, 2700 area for the XJO Wave 5 on a weekly chart ??

The AGET MOB has had reasonable success in this bear market - not always perfect, but not bad for an algorithm. It's suggesting we could see 2730ish in a few months time.
A 100% extension of your 1 from your 4 would give 2857 so I'd be starting to feel bullish if we got down there.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Could this be a possibility, 2700 area for the XJO Wave 5 on a weekly chart ??

Should see 5 waves on current leg to there, we may have be in 3 of 5 ??

Any opinions ?

Although your wave count is different to mine, the 3000-2700 range is where I believe this next leg down will take us. This will most likely form a significant low.

 

[Frogacle]

Hello. Just had a browse through some of the charts up here. Nice work. Good to find a place where Elliott Wave is discussed.

I have a count that is similar to Boggo's, though I'm not sure w4 is complete. I think it could go a bit further. By "thinking", I mean, considering my current positions, "hoping".

I'm interested to see OWG's expanding triangle. In my (limited) experience, I've only known expanding triangles in theory, much harder to find them in practice. Also, if we are entering a (iii) of D, should the move not be larger or more well progressed at this point? Or is it possible just a smaller degree wave 1 in the larger wave (iii) move?

2700ish for a final leg down is something I guess we all concur on.

I find that having a couple of alternate counts keeps you less biased... so in that vein, a challenge: Can any of the accomplished EW guys muster an alternative count that says that the low in March was wave 5 down?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

The XAO has come to a pivotal juncture at today's intraday high. There is a reasonably strong case for the XAO to decline from these levels - preferably in a 5 wave decline over the next several weeks to a new low or a double bottom. This would further confirm the expanding triangle and form wave 'D'.

Whilst there is still room for some further upside in the very short term (and allowable under the current scenario shown), a number of bearish divergences on the daily and hourly charts suggest that a decline (of some form) is at hand. The evidence also points to the completion of 5 waves up (the c wave of an expanded flat) which also supports a decline.

This suggested unfolding wave 'D' structure would be considered an elongated flat with the final part of the wave to be quite aggressive to the downside.

Reconsideration of the wave count would need to be undertaken if there is a significant break higher from the current levels.

 

[Boggo]

I don't subscribe to their newsletter but I get daily emails these guys. (see below)
They have made some good calls in the past and are of the belief that we haven't seen the bottom yet.

There are a lot of influential stocks on a wave 5 leg at the moment that may need a significant correction.

Just my

Greetings,

Why are the truly big economic catastrophes so "big"? Put simply, it's that such a small number of people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about 2008 and you'll realize it's true. What's more, once you read Bob Prechter's just-published Elliott Wave Theorist for July, you'll see that even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching worst leg down of the unfolding depression.

In this issue, Bob gives a warning he's never had to include in 30 years of publishing – namely, that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. Even as this happens, the terrible irony is that so many people believe the conventional wisdom, which claims "the worst is over."

It's not too late, but the doors really are closing shut. Learn what you need to know now. You're a few clicks away from reading your own copy of the July issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist.

http://www.elliottwave.com/

 

[nunthewiser]

he he he

no offense intended


thanks for the charts / time ,....................oz wave guy


intresting

 

[tech/a]

There are a lot of influential stocks on a wave 5 leg at the moment that may need a significant correction.

Confluence of a great number of stocks and indicies predate all longer term stronger moves.
This was particularly evident at the beginning of the bear market at 6880 ish.

 

[brty]

Bob Prechter's just-published Elliott Wave Theorist for July, you'll see that even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching worst leg down of the unfolding depression.

Prechter has been predicting this since the '87 crash. I suppose if you predict it often enough eventually he'll get it right. But I'm prepared to wait another 20 odd years for it, plus another quadroupling of the DOW in the mean time.

brty

 

[Sean K]

Another way to interpret the recent down leg is that wave D of an expanding triangle is now underway on the XAO.

The 4079 level should not be broken in the expanding triangle scenario - if it is, then something much more complex is unfolding. The wave structure from the recent top is moving in 5 waves down, so there is supporting evidence that more downside is to follow. This supports the probability that wave 'D' down is underway.

Too early to call 'something much more complex is unfolding', or can the expanding triangle still be in play?

 

[Sean K]

Well, has pushed on to 4150 so 'something much more complex' is underway isn't it?

Looking forward to the alternate count OWG.