ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[profithunter]

0142 GMT [Dow Jones] Zinifex (ZFX.AU) up 4.3% at A$15.36 as takeover rumors resurface.
There's talk that Xstrata is planning a bid. "The rumors are around
again," says senior institutional trader. Traders piling into call options today,
based on the view that there is enough "smoke" to believe the rumors could be
true. Zinifex also seen as a strong fundamental buy. Zinifex surged to A$16.48 from
A$14.40 last Thursday on talk that Oxiana (OXR.AU) or Xstrata (XTA.LN) was planning a
bid. Xstrata has refused to comment. Zinifex said last week it has had no approaches.
(DWR)



speculation!

 

[overule]

Yes, another speculation again.

Don't see any positive news with ZFX. So any of you guys grab more shares/options ?

 

[uhu]

Well, a few weeks ago I wrote a very large drop is not impoossible.

Now, these are the facts:
- grizzly-feeling in USA (FRE, Fed)
- zinc and lead -5,7% in one day. (Copper "only" -3,9)

I will be realy brave to check my portfolio in tomorrow morning...

My tip is:
ZFX: - 8% (must give back the yesterday strange surge)

Well, if ZFX won't stop at 14.60-70, is it possible to drop to one-year low (10.90 aud)?

Sorry, my English is not good.

 

[Kipp]

From Bloomberg...
Zinc fell as much as 5 percent to $2,242 a ton, the lowest since March 13, 2006, on uncertainty surrounding China's export policy regarding the metal.

Suspended in Shanghai

``The sharp fall in zinc prices is being attributed to rumors that the Chinese central government will abolish a 5 percent tax rebate on high-purity zinc early next year,'' John Meyer, head of resources analysis at Fairfax IS Plc in London, said today in a daily report.

Chinese traders are selling the metal surplus before the change begins, Meyer said. Zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by the daily trading limit yesterday and was suspended from trading today after the decline exceeded the maximum allowed by the exchange in the previous three sessions.

Zinc was in a deficit of 11,500 tons in September, the WBMS said. In the first nine months, there was a surplus of 50,000 tons, it said."

A tough time to be an unhedged Zinc producer, takeover talks or not. Without the Chinese flooding the market at present, I can't understand why prices are so low when Zinc inventories are still at 80K?

 

[joeborgo]

what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.

 

[eMark]

what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.

Hi Joe

I doubt you'll receive many responses to your question. If I were you I would look back on the last 4-5 pages of this thread. That will give you the exactly the answers that you are looking for.

 

[roland]

Hi Joe

I doubt you'll receive many responses to your question. If I were you I would look back on the last 4-5 pages of this thread. That will give you the exactly the answers that you are looking for.

Yeah, well - Zinifex has been analysed to death here. It has probably bottomed again today, so I picked up a few. Anyone asking about take over rumours are so out of the loop that responses are probably not likely to happen. Such a high profile stock like Zinifex would have close to front page news on any speculation - don't expect any unknown insights from any forum. Buying a stock like Zinifex on forum speculation is prone to disaster.

This stock demands some respect and a lot of research to see if it fits your portfolio

 

[joeborgo]

Yeah, well - Zinifex has been analysed to death here. It has probably bottomed again today, so I picked up a few. Anyone asking about take over rumours are so out of the loop that responses are probably not likely to happen. Such a high profile stock like Zinifex would have close to front page news on any speculation - don't expect any unknown insights from any forum. Buying a stock like Zinifex on forum speculation is prone to disaster.

This stock demands some respect and a lot of research to see if it fits your portfolio

You have missed the point to the question. FYI I already own stock and have done so for over 18 months and didnt need forum sites to make up my mind to buy it. I have already read most of the pages on this forum and make the observation that there has been speculation of a take over for a fair while. No need to get smart Im simply asking what other forum members think not definite answers.

 

[Nyden]

The advantages of global warming
This is obviously very long term, but - providing the price holds up...that's what I'm in for.

http://www.thestar.com/ArcticInPeril/article/279415

The potential for mineral development is also huge for Nunavut.

Zinifex, an Australian mining company that had more than $1.3 billion in worldwide profits last year, recently bought Wolfden Resources for $358 million. Wolfden holds the rights to the copper, gold, silver and zinc deposits at Izok and High Lake on the Nunavut side of the Northwest Territories border.

 

[3MT]

what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.

Your educated guess would be as good as anyone else's on this forum.
Lots have been written on ZFX as you know and its common sense to see ZFX a takeover target with its assets and healthy balance sheet.

I think with the new CEO appointment, it seems ZFX would become less attractive as a takeover target (he would fight for a large premium) and more of a predator.

If you were looking for takeover targets to buy I think there are more likely companies elsewhere. However, anything can happen. If ZFX keeps falling it may be wise for xyz to contemplate on building a strategic stake.

But just for the fun on being on a forum, I am going to suggest that the OXR/xtrata speculation was purposely leaked out to gauge ZFX's response. Now that they know Michelmore aint going to sell for cheap, I doubt they would want to contemplate on a ZFX bid at this stage unless private equity comes on board which in this climate is less probable than more probable.

A more likely bid would be for one of the nickel companies, SMY, WSA or even OXR if it stays low.

 

[porkpie324]

I have to agree with the above post but would definatly add MCR, getting back to ZFX after the 15th flurry ZFX have continued the downtrend, the SP is getting close to the $14.05 low of the 13th. There's also been weakness with other zinc/lead producers CBH, JML KZL. porkpie

 

[porkpie324]

An interesting point is forming with ZFX, could be a double bottom forming here, if the SP bounces off on good volume may well be a good entry (long) coming up. However if the SP continues trending down the next underlying support is about $10.50. porkpie

 

[roland]

Well Zinifex got hammered again today - even with a 4.8% increase in the price of Zinc. The AGM glossed over the problems of short term weakness of Zinc and expected over-supply and their fall in resource prospects. I wonder if the Drake relationship was formed due to the loss of exploration expertise, since they have been a miner and not a prospector for so long. Of course Drake are going to be taking a reasonable slice of the pie with any new finds.

I can't help but feeling Zinifex are taking a bit of a "scatter gun" approach with finding these new mining prospects - re: the Qld announcement today. I am hoping that we will have an announcement soon of a buy in of a known mineral asset with all the cash that's sitting around. Announcements of new propects doesn't add value, digging stuff up and selling it does.

 

[3MT]

ZFX have announced they are interested in copper and possibily nickel, but prices for these stocks are mostly inflated now after that Jubilee bid, although less than last couple weeks.

The time to make a move on copper stocks is round about now. Does anyone have a 2cent on which copper stocks? I am not ruling out OXR, but I think Hegarty would make it almost impossible for a predator to latch on, unless its a hostile takeover.

I thought about KZL which is probable, but is that too high a premium to pay for a predominantly Zinc miner in this environment. Possibly.

 

[profithunter]

Interesting to note that a non excutive director of Oxiana quit yesterday, effective immediately. He is also a director of ZFX...I wonder if this could have a something to do with the takeover rumours. If OXR are mounting a bid then this guy would have a conflict of interest...maybe thats why he left. Just a thought.

 

[vishalt]

Zinifex is way oversold and has some really good prospects and if its planning to diversify then I think it looks like a pretty damn good buy!

How it will diversify I don't know - the CEO is pretty aggressive and tries to get maximum value for shareholders (as seen by the WMC bid).

I don't have the capital but I think I'll get Dad to buy some of it, if Oxiana is going to propose a merger then Zinifex will fire up!

 

[YELNATS]

Zinifex is way oversold and has some really good prospects and if its planning to diversify then I think it looks like a pretty damn good buy!

How it will diversify I don't know - the CEO is pretty aggressive and tries to get maximum value for shareholders (as seen by the WMC bid).

I don't have the capital but I think I'll get Dad to buy some of it, if Oxiana is going to propose a merger then Zinifex will fire up!

I topped up on ZFX yesterday with the price under $14.

A negative report yesterday from Merrill Lynch

QUOTE
Merrill Lynch rates (ZFX.AX

ZINIFEX29 November,200729/11/2007 08:03 Sydney, Australia.
Value Change % Change
13.860 +0 +0%

Company overview
Real-time quote
ZFX.AX , 13.860, +0, +0%) as Sell, High Risk - Analysts have downgraded FY08 earnings forecasts for Zinifex, based on the cost pressures highlighted in the company?s Annual General Meeting. Analysts also expect that zinc demand will disappoint over the next three months. They have reduced their forecast profit by 9% to $746m UNQUOTE

However, analysts don't always get it right, perhaps the price is being "prepared" for a takeover bid.

 

[Nyden]

I'm glad I didn't top up on ZFX, but instead went for BHP. ZFX always seems to fall hardest, and recover softest

Short term prospects aren't all that great - unless an announcement is made about acquiring something, or an ann is made about a takeover/merger.

But, their new CEO doesn't start till Feb does he? I could be wrong, don't quite remember : Would be disappointing if nothing at all happened until Feb/March, they may very well be in a weaker position to offer scrip by then, for any large takeover.


Don't get me wrong though, I'm a believer And I don't hold any worth in what Merrill Lynch, or Citi say about anything at this point in time.

 

[justjohn]

ZFX has had its chance to run today only up 2% should have a lot more in the tank than that.Overall lately it has performed like a busted arse,holding on to plenty but patience is running out

 

[DionM]

Pretty much back where it started the day now ...

I see over on HC someone reported a buy of 56000 @ 13.98.

ZFX ZFX ZFX ... what are you up to?