ZFX is a high-risk stock though.
It makes a lot of money right now, and is attractive for a takeover - BUT, thats all speculation, realistically its mines have very low lives (5-15 years I think, Roseberry is not far from expiry), as opposed to BHP/RIO which have heaps of mines that have lifespans of a century. They also have a massive cash sheet to make acquisitions/ventures.
Personally if I was just starting to invest I'd go with any of the bank stocks, or with BHP/Rio.
Yes but 5-15 yrs @ 1.40+ pa dividend pays for its capital outlay. Add to that prospective capital gains from an astute management through utilising the companies experience to explore, open, buy new mines and any prospective aquisitions and deals then you have a Fantastic Stock with Fantastic Opporunity.
Burger Man - given your exisiting portfolio of solid stocks I think you are on the mark and this would make an excellent aquisition for your portfolio. Get in quick before the SP jumps back up to high teens in anticipation of the coming 70c dividend - and you'll get both (the 70c dividend and the SP appreciation).
Good luck and don't eat too many fries wth your whopper.
MSHi Nicks, what makes you think its $1.40pa dividend for the next 15 years?
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 274.1 233.0 174.2 116.1
DPS 140.0 125.0 86.0 60.0
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 233.0 6.7 -15.0%
Year Ending 30-06-09 174.2 9.0 -25.2%
Thanks
MS
MS
I admit to being wearied by your regurgitation of Comsec forecast earnings.
These forecasts have been regularly wrong by several hundred percent in recent years for various minerals producers.
Do you have some original thoughts?
Just remember that zinc warehouse levels are at about 10% of their levels from around 5 years ago.
Also note that the present inventory trend remains relatively flat, despite zinc prices dipping sharply in recent months.
Zinc is quite unspectacular now, and may remain so.
However, it is much too soon to discount further upside - and not simply a dead cat bounce!
MS, agree with Red, looks like a cut and paste out of Etrade. I must admit my 140c pa was just an expectation of the returns it is currently giving, but I actually will be expecting an INCREASE (ie more than 140c pa), as no doubt the market is, hence the SHARE PRICE reflecting expectation of future income streams, eps and dps.
Those figures you cut and paste assumes status quo. Check out what ZFX is doing and I think you will agree that it wont remain status quo.
GREENSRed I would be quite interested to hear your thoughts on Zinc at the moment (both ST and LT), cancelled warrants aren’t looking to healthy, metal inflows are becoming more frequent and in larger quantities and China is a net Exporter. ST not looking so good, but what has me dumfound is that inventories had slowly declined over the past 3-4 months (are still near their lowest levels), and Zn price has not reacted, yet as soon as we saw some metal inflow into the markets, the markets reacted very efficiently to the news, any thoughts on why this might be the case?
In regards to Zinc stocks, I can now see why you favoured KZL as your zinc exposure, after doing some major research on all the zinc miners over the past 6 months.
Cheers Greens
GREENS
Zinc has lost its market darling status.
China is churning out more zinc than many expected, sooner than expected.
However, it begs the question of warehouse inventories at SHFE and LME being relatively static for a good while now.
Clearly if iron ore is being consumed by China at ever increasing quantities then a proportion of extra zinc will be needed over and above present demand.
But if we see supply more than compensating then it might be game over.
Right now I reckon it's a waiting game.
The technicals for zinc are poor, and the fundamentals do not look flash.
But they said that of copper last year, too.
And who was right?
by the way, KZL will do well because it's knocking out more and more copper
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