ZFX - Zinifex Limited

[misterS]

Julia - my comment was just a quick joke mate - demonstrates risk of quick jokes when in email / posts - not suggesting you were trying to make anyone do anything - could see you were simply volunteering a wry and accurate observation for Halba's consideration.
cheers

 

[coyotte]

ZFX from a different perspective :

Q2 bottom is projected @ 14.84/14.36
April bottom " " " " @ 15.15/ 14.94

Aug /14/ 06 is the only time the projection appears to have failed in the last 12 mths -- but the close of the day was above the projected low.
With panic selling who knows ?

 

[Kauri]

May be bottoming out, looks a good place to put in the W 4 low??.

 

[Halba]

bottomed out nicely. my decision to hold has been vindicated. Remember this is not your average run of the mill spec.

Company made $1bn at $1/lb zinc and will continue to generate good cash flow even despite rising costs

Upsides include (these range from short term to long term)

zinc price recovery/zinc inventory drawdowns later this year (copper as the model) ~China demand, pickup in US housing.

smelter spin off

exploration upside in QLD leases, discovery of additional orebodies similar in size to Century to expand mine life.

Dugald River BFS completion

Takeover speculation(BHP,Xstrata,Teck cominco have been long rumoured to want ZFX's century asset. Somehow i doubt this as limited mine life)

Diversification into other metals streams e.g. into nickel or copper or precious metals gold (Oxiana or KZL)

Expansion of production at Rosebery (rumoured) , expansion of mine life at Rosebery

Downsides:

continual zinc price manipulation/ inventory manipulation at the LME (increase in visible stocks)

continual slow down in zinc demand as evident from weakening drawdown rates in the US (i.e. New orleans LME warehouse)

Chinese production of zinc/excess production capacity

inability to discover additional orebodies forcing ZFX to pay for assets at the top of the cycle

 

[Col Lector]

This has a positively zinc hue to it.....



Move to boost zinc imports
By Wan Zhihong (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-04-05 08:41



The government may remove the export tax rebate on high-purity refined zinc in a move to promote zinc imports.

Related readings:
Shanghai begins zinc futures trade
China leads world in nonferrous metals output
Vast metal reserves on 'roof of world'


Plans are afoot to remove the 5-percent export tax rebate on zinc over 99.995 percent pure, Zhou Guobao, director of the lead and zinc division at the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, was quoted by Shanghai Securities News as saying.

The proposal is subject to approval by the State Council, said Zhou, but did not elaborate when it will be implemented.

China's zinc demand will rise about 10 percent this year from last year's 3.4 million tons, said Zhou. Zinc prices will remain high at around 28,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan per ton in the domestic market, he added.

Zinc exports surpassed imports for the first time in October, a consequence of the price difference between domestic and overseas markets, said Feng Juncong, an analyst with Antaike Information Development Co Ltd, a State-owned non-ferrous metals information provider.

Zinc imports and exports will fluctuate over the next few months, but the nation will still remain a net zinc importer this year, she said.

"Small and outdated zinc mining capacity will be gradually phased out this year in accordance with the government's control policies," said Feng.

New lead and zinc mines will be blocked if their annual capacity is under 30,000 tons and the service period is less than 15 years, said a statement from the National Development and Reform Commission last month.

High raw-material prices led to frenzied zinc mine investments by major zinc companies last year, said Feng. Zinc smelters also expanded their production last year.

Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co Ltd, the listed subsidiary of Yunnan Metallurgical General Company, has issued an additional 35 million A shares to its parent for the acquisition of a lead and zinc mine in Zhaotong.

Huludao Zinc Industry Co Ltd said it will issue 300 million additional A shares to raise 120 million yuan to purchase a lead and zinc mine in Tibet.


(China Daily 04/05/2007 page13)

 

[UraniumLover]

What's wrong with ZFX these days? Certainly not the ZFX I got to know.
Zinc prices are going up and yet ZFX isn't. I'm used to seeing a direct correlation between the price of zinc and ZFX. Seems to be in a bearish sleep at the moment.

 

[ozambersand]

While its price is low, it's certainly good for any prospective take-over player to buy in quietly. With the proposed hive ff of the smelting business, it is being rumoured as a take-over target. Especially sitting on $600 million cash? (I may have that figure wrong)

Also a low price is better for investment people to buy in with the superannuation money they have to offload before the end of April. From memory I read that by the end of January the super funds had billions of super fund dollars they HAD to put into the stock market before the end of the quarter.

As another quarter is about to end I am assuming the same thing holds true!

There is no possibility it is being kept low deliberately for these two purposes is there?

 

[Ken]

ZFX

Whos buying at these levels?

 

[vishalt]

I keep buying it.. Zinc + Zinifex consolodating atm imo, just like last time between $9-$11 range

and yeah with it partnering with Umicore something big could be looming in the horizon..

 

[Ken]

Whats the closest company that comes close to ZFX?

Speaking of zinc is anyone looking at that new zinc float?

 

[itchy]

What zinc float ken? I'm interested.

 

[Ken]

http://www.zincco.com.au/pdf/ZincCo_Prospectus3AprFinal_ApplicFrm_Web.pdf

 

[Devil_Star]

It will be very difficult to get Zinc Co's allocations from public offers.

 

[Ken]

Why?

Its just a name....


The company assets might be no good..

 

[Devil_Star]

Why?

Its just a name....


The company assets might be no good..

You didn't see how buyers rushed to buy GIR shares in order to secure their priority offers for Zinc Co just before the record date. Lucky I picked a tip and topped up my GIR holdings before GIR became real expensive.

 

[michael_selway]

What's wrong with ZFX these days? Certainly not the ZFX I got to know.
Zinc prices are going up and yet ZFX isn't. I'm used to seeing a direct correlation between the price of zinc and ZFX. Seems to be in a bearish sleep at the moment.

Thats means theres good value in ZFX now?

thx

MS

 

[UraniumLover]

come on Zinafex !!
LME stocks are falling nicely now

 

[Moneybags]

LME stocks are falling nicely now

........like sand thru the hour glass......

MB

 

[reece55]

Guys
I'm not sure why everyone is still hot on ZFX......

As the market has soared forward, ZFX has been left behind....

All I see since January is a series of lower highs and lower lows.....

Support @ $15.00 and we are now approaching 4 test of that level in 4 months. If it were to break, I would actually be tempted to short the stock.....

In saying this however, I note that AXA have increased their stake again and the fundamentals are certainly there, so if you are long term, you may wish to add to your holding if this is value to you..... But its price that pays us and I just don't see the action I want here...

Cheers
Reece

 

[misterS]

Reece - Shorting it from $15 would be a pretty gutsy call - maybe depending on how far out you go. Seems to run its own race vis other miners' sp. The final div ought to be around $1, with the $2b smelter cash maybe distributed before that and then t/o with premium at the end of the year . Supply side is always a bit rubbery, so the point at which zinc goes into surplus (est. 2008) is not fixed either and sovereign risks are a bit unpredictable - but even then the zinc price still generates a lot of cash for ZFX.

You already know all this I guess, but I think any time this year up till about... now... would have been a short oppportunity (although that is from a tech ignorant). If it gets under $15, I dips me lid to ya. I reckon a surge back into $16 is more likely.
cheers