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Nick Radge said:What is that chart wavepicker?
With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.
Sincerely,
Radgephile
reece55 said:Will the financial's due on Wednesday commence the next down move????
Nick Radge said:Michael,
Actually, the Zinc pattern is 100% identical to Allco Finance (AFG), which I said on 31 Jan, "..we will trade lower again, probably to $12.00 as a minimum..". Today AFG dropped 6% to $11.80 or so. Zinc is the same pattern. A spoof rally is about to occur and suck in the perennial bulls...enough to spit them out again.
Nick Radge said:The fundamentals of Zinc may be strong. I don't disagree with that. What I said is that I doubt any immediate strength in Zinc can be sustained. In other words I wholly expect short term strength but we should not see new highs in Zinc in the near term.
Markets are driven ultimately by fundamentals, however in the interim they are driven by supply and demand which in turn is extraploated to fear and greed. These factors create price patterns and because human emotion stays the same over the generations, so do these price patterns. The patterns can be simple (such as micro triangles and congestions) to more complex patterns such as Elliott Wave. Because human emotion is always involved we have a vast depository of these price patterns to draw on. When they recur we can assign probabilities and more importantly we can assign right/wrong attributes to protect our capital. We can assign the same for fundamentals, albeit in a slightly different light. Rederob has essentially identified a pattern that he is happy with. Most fundamentalists do the same without really recognising it. A better word for "pattern" maybe be "checklist". What is the PE? What is the state of the economy? What is the state of the company? What are its EPS? etc etc. Its a pattern that once you're comfortable with will enable you to take a position.
Therefore a price pattern in AFG has the same attributes as that pattern in Zinc. By drawing on the same patterns we can get an idea of what to expect and when we'll be proven wrong. Look at Gold. I publically said on these pages when Gold was nearer $600 that we should see $680 again. We're within a few dollars of that. My point though is that the price of Gold followed a pattern that has been repeated hundreds of thousands of times. Because it repeated does not mean it will repeat again. But we do know when we're wrong beforehand and that allows a quantifiable risk to be accepted or rejected.
What is a quantifiable risk with regard to long positions in Zinc? There is none with respect to the fundamentals. When they change, then so should your positions or attitude toward Zinc however we can't know what the price of Zinc will be when those have changed. Look at TIM as the most recent example. The fundamentals were apparently very strong according to a swathe of highly paid anaysts. Now the outlook has changed, but only after the price plunged.
toothfairy said:Interesting to see whether sp of ZFX today will follow the wavy peaple's theory of 1-2,1-2, 1-2 ( down ), OR follow the POZ overnight (up).
My guess is UP.
BRUSSELS (AFX) - Umicore posted forecast-beating full-year results as it continues its transformation from a metal to a materials technology group, with investors anticipating the company's proposed listing of its zinc joint venture with Australian peer Zinifex....
He also countered suggestions that Umicore would delay the timing of the IPO to accommodate the evolution of zinc prices.
The venture, seen as a 60:40 Zinifex-Umicore spit and planned for the third quarter, will to lead to the world's leading producer of zinc metal ahead of Korea Zinc and Xstrata PLC.
Unless you can say POZ also follow the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 pattern. I can't see ZFX sp follows 1-2,1-2,1-2 pattern. ZFX sp more affected by POZ, which is in turn affected by end-user. Shares of banks may follow the above pattern due to people's psychological make-up and generally their news is boring, but ZFX is affected by POZ as well.wavepicker said:Hey toothache,
I suggested that another possibility on top of what kauri posted was a series of nesting 1-2's. Not that this will in fact happen as I don't know what will happen until we have more market price information at hand. What I did say about Zinc/ZFX back in late Dec was that it was a high probablilty that at a top was in, and that Zinc would fall back to $3000 and ZFX will fall back to $15-15.5 That did actually happen as expected. That pattern was just too convincing to be otherwise.
Now further analysis is needed to determine if the trend will continue down or not. If this move up is a countertrend it should hold lower than the last swing high and then we may get a fast move down. If not then the entire move down to date will be fully retraced.
I don't hold any positions in ZFX (never have)so my opinion is totally unbiased
Cheers
toothfairy said:Unless you can say POZ also follow the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 pattern. I can't see ZFX sp follows 1-2,1-2,1-2 pattern. ZFX sp more affected by POZ, which is in turn affected by end-user. Shares of banks may follow the above pattern due to people's psychological make-up and generally their news is boring, but ZFX is affected by POZ as well.
The medium term bullishness in Zn does give this share a very good support and uptrend momentum. Short term (weeks) volatility is a must and that's where you can make more $. I just can't say it follows any patterns, that's all.
You can't say you are neutral if you don't hold ZFX shares, you may be bearish. (Apart from a very few brave short sellers). I am neutral because I did sell out a few weeks ago and only lately starting to buy back 20%. I don't care weather it goes up or down, I just trade.That way, I have no toothache!
moses said:I won't buy ZFX, and hardly even bother watching it anymore, because it is unreliable and doesn't make sense to me. It kept rising after the dividend (very bullish!) and then when everything seemed fine suddenly reversed. Who knows what it is going to do next...I see the experts arguing back and forth, but basically the ZFX SP has moved from steady growth and huge reliable potential into confusion.
Goodluck to the Rederob's of this world who, as fundamentalists, bought in so low that the swings really don't matter either way, and goodluck to the Wavepickers who see patterns in the noise and trade the swings. But for this little black duck ZFX has moved into the zone of the dark arts, and as it hasn't a hope in hell today of being a 10 bagger anymore why take the risk?
Emotive? Perhaps. But thats the market...
Magdoran said:I’ve seen a lot of technical players in my time, and I can say without a doubt that out of all the people contributing to the ASF site, and in fact all the trader’s I’ve ever met in my lifetime, that wavepicker is the most gifted, seasoned, and learned EW player I have ever met.
With all due respect, most people only know very basic concepts in EW, but it is a very detailed discipline, which takes years to fully grasp. The foundations are certainly contained in the body of knowledge developed by Robert Prechter over many year. While some of his concepts are necessarily flawed, I would argue that to be fully conversant in EW theory requires a detailed knowledge and understanding of his work .
Many of the counts I’ve seen on this site look more like they are based on Robert Fisher’s approach, which is an alternative school to the Prechter/Frost approach. wavepicker is more from the Prechter school, although is conversant in Fisher’s concepts too, but has refined his own unique style. The subtleties contained in wavepicker’s work are probably not easy to recognise from a novice's perspective, and it is more likely that seasoned EW practitioners will appreciate the knowledge and innovative approach wavepicker has developed.
What many people fail to realise, is that many different markets trade in very similar patterns, from Forex, to commodities to stocks and indexes. The core technical analysis principles based on an astute observation of how markets trend can translate very well almost universally. Hence the confusion when less knowledgable people raise distinctions between different asset classes, misunderstanding the applicability of pattern recognition across markets. Some people seem particularly obtuse when it comes to recognising this simple concept, not grasping the key point.
In sum, there are a lot of novice EW players out there that would benefit from the depth of knowledge wavepicker has. Also, those unable to see the forest for the trees when it comes to patterns of trend are splitting hairs.
Those who are fundamentally based just won’t understand what all the fuss is about because their discipline is radically different, hence it’s probably better for such people to stick to very long term perspectives since that is that approaches nature. (Broad strategic thinking, as opposed to shorter term swing and position trading with leveraged instruments which requires more short term precision in time and price and wave structure). Hence I fully understand the disconnect between FA and TA players - fundamental and technical perspectives I think are actually complementary, but are different tools for different jobs.
Regards
Magdoran
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